This document presents a case study analyzing pathways to transition the energy system of Greater Cairo, Egypt's largest megacity, under different socioeconomic and emissions reduction scenarios through 2050. The study uses the TIMES modeling framework to assess scenarios involving increasing or decreasing the percentage of inhabitants in informal settlements over time. Modeling results show that improving quality of life increases energy consumption but renewable energy and energy efficiency can help meet rising demand while reducing emissions. Data availability remains a challenge for comprehensive energy planning in megacities.

1. ADDRESSING RISING ENERGY NEEDS OF MEGACITIES
– CASE STUDY OF GREATER CAIRO –
Authors: Sara Abd Alla, Vincenzo Bianco, Sofia G. Simoes
Presenting Author:
Sara Abd Alla
Ph.D. Student

2. o cities consume up to 75% of global primary energy
=> substantial challenges for decarbonization
o literature does not address the role of megacities for global energy
transition
(urban agglomerations > 10 million inhabitants)
o megacities mainly in developing countries need to ensure modern & clean
energy to citizens while coping with lifestyle changes
• assess different pathways for energy
transition of megacities
• impacts of lowering % inhabitants in
informal settlements
Greater Cairo
megacity
as case study
Megacities and energy consumption

3. o 12th biggest megacity, 21 million
inhabitants, ongoing expansion to
several satellite cities;
54% inhabitants in informal
settlements
o 3 governorates Cairo, Giza and
Qalyubeya;
22% of Egypt population & 43%
urban population
o informal settlements’ inhabitants
are being relocated to outskirts
with improved access to energy
and a higher transport demand
Greater Cairo Megacity

4. Transmission &
distribution
Transport (TRA): road passengers (car – short / long distance, taxi,
bus – urban / intercity, moto), road freight (light duty/heavy), rail
(passengers / freight), light electric vehicles passenger/freight, train
(passenger high speed/ light/heavy & freight), metro, walking, bike,
electric bike (passengers/freight)
Public Lighting (PLIG)
Energy(primaryandfinal)import
amounts&prices
Primaryenergypotentials
Hydro,wind,solar,biomass,…
Minimise total
system costs
Emissions
Costs
Installed capacity
Final energy prices
Materials and Energy flows
Optimal
combination of
energy supply and
demand
technologies
Municipal Buildings (MUN): Education, Offices, Technical Support
Buildings, Social Housing, Sports, Culture, Other
Residential Buildings (RSD): Apartments, Houses, Informal
Settlements
Commercial Buildings (COM): Education, Health, Tourism, Offices,
Commerce, Sports, Culture, Other
Industry (IND): 4 generic industry cathegories
Energy demand
Primary energy
supply (RES)
Energy Conversion
(electricity, heat,
biofuels, …)
Urban
energy
system
Times Greater Cairo Structure 3 governorates
Cairo, Giza and Qalyubeya
modelled separately per
different sectors and
technologies
Overview of the TIMES-GC model structure (adapted from https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.06.004 )

5. CAPMAS
STATISTICS
YEARBOOK2015
CENSUS 2006
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY AGENCY
Data Collection

6. GDP,
construction
and mobility
grow as 2005-
2015; no
changes in %
informal
settlements
GDP,
construction
and mobility
grow as in
Cairo Vision*;
by 2030/2050
27%/54%
inhab. informal
settl. relocated
Intermediate
GDP,
construction
and mobility
growth; by
2030/2050
7%/27% inhab.
informal settl.
relocated
As BAU + CO2
emissions
mitigation cap
in 2050 of 50%
below 2015
As INFA + CO2
emissions
mitigation cap
in 2050 of 50%
below 2015
As INFB + CO2
emissions
mitigation cap
in 2050 of 50%
below 2015
* General Organization of Physical Planning, Cairo future vision 2050: within a national vision of Egypt, vol. 18. 2010. Available at:
http://mirror.unhabitat.org/downloads/docs/8635_42944_AymanEl-hefnawi.pdf
Six modelled socio-economic & CO2 mitigation scenarios
BAU INFA INFB BAUc INFAc INFBc

7. Scenarios Energy per capita (GJ/
inhabitants)
% difference from
2015
2015 2030 2050 2030 2050
BAU 11.57 8.32 7.52 -28% -35%
BAUc 8.20 6.64 -29% -43%
INFA 9.96 14.68 -14% 27%
INFAc 9.55 12.31 -17% 6%
INFB 8.87 8.94 -23% -22%
INFBc 8.75 7.43 -24% -36%
Final Energy Consumption
Source: Addressing rising energy needs of megacities – case study of Greater Cairo, submitted to Applied Energy

8. Final Energy Consumption
Source: Addressing rising energy needs of megacities – case study of Greater Cairo, submitted to Applied Energy
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
BAU
BAUc
INFA
INFAc
INFB
INFBc
BAU
BAUc
INFA
INFAc
INFB
INFBc
2015 2030 2050
FinalEnergyConsumption(PJ)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
BAU BAUc INFAINFAcINFBINFBc BAU BAUc INFAINFAcINFBINFBc
2015 2030 2050
FinalEnergyConsumption(%)
Diesel Gasoline LPG Gas
Electricity H2 Solar Biodiesel
Biomass Ambient Heat Savings

9. CO2 emissions per
capita
(kg CO2/inhabitant)
2015 2030 2050
BAU
1.04
0.55 0.34
INFA 0.65 0.66
INFB 0.59 0.43
BAUc/ INFAc/ INFBc 0.38 0.26
CO2 Emissions
Source: Addressing rising energy needs of megacities – case study of Greater Cairo, submitted to Applied Energy
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
BAU BAUc INFA INFAc INFB INFBc BAU BAUc INFA INFAc INFB INFBc
2015 2030 2050
EmissionsforEnergyServices(%)
Residential Commercial Municipal Transport

10. o Improving quality of life leads to a necessary increase in energy consumption
=> 2 x CO2 emissions per capita (INFA) without RES
o Renewable energy systems can provide energy for the summer shortages, reduce the imports,
solve the on-going energy crisis, and thus improve the Egyptian energy security;
o Improve energy efficiency => substitute all the outdated devices in residential, transportation,
municipal and commercial sectors. Energy efficiency is a viable strategy to achieve a carbon
emission reduction also without mitigation policies (BAUc).
o Energy data on demand and supply should be made available for energy modeling and
forecasting analysis.
Key Takeaways

11. ADDRESSING RISING ENERGY NEEDS OF MEGACITIES
– CASE STUDY OF GREATER CAIRO
Sara Abd Alla
Ph.D. Student
sara.abd.alla@edu.unige.it
Thank You for Your Attention!
All questions are welcome!
Here is mine: Can we model
developing countries megacities on
TIMES?