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Crunching Numbers for Low Carbon Transport in Asia!

!   Presented at Transforming Transportation 2014!
!   Sudhir Gota!
!   Lee Schipper Scholar (2013)!

Transforming Transportation 2014!
Crunching Numbers for Low
Carbon Transport in Asia
Sudhir Gota
Lee Schipper Scholar (2013)
Transforming Transportation
16 January 2014
Washington,D.C.
	
  
Lee	
  Schipper	
  1947-­‐2011	
  
Common sense ?

Brazil = 40-50 million
vehicles
emits 148 MT of CO2

India = 90-100 million
vehicles
emits 145 MT of CO2

“Top-down is accurate while bottom-up estimates unreliable
especially in countries with limited data”
Research objective - How to improve credibility and consistency of
bottom-up modelling in Asia?
The Great Indian Mismatch
350
315

300

Bottom-­‐up	
  

M Tons of CO2

250
200
161
150

145

Top-­‐down	
  

100
50
0
1960

Gasoline	
  

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020
The Great Indian ‘Diesel’ Mismatch
100
90
80

Bottom-­‐up	
  

70
60

40

calibration	
  

MTOE

50

30
20

Official	
  Data	
  

10
0
1980

Revised	
  Official	
  
1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Poor data and insights cost - 3-10 billion USD diesel subsidy annually
‘low-hanging fruit’ : Prioritize data collection for Diesel vehicles
	
  

2010

2015
It’s more ‘efficiency’ in the Philippines?
250
GDP/Capita	
  

200
Vehicles	
  

150
Road	
  Transport	
  
Fuel	
  
Consumption	
  

100
50
0
2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Department of Energy claims ‘reduction’ due to “Impact of policies”
It’s more ‘efficiency’ in the Philippines?
140
120
100

CO2	
  

2-3X
Increase

80
60

DOE 2030
Target

Bottom-up

40
20

Top Down
0
1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

“33%” of fuel sold in the Philippines is smuggled costing 1 billion USD loss of revenues
Top Down estimates are not realistic with ground conditions and aggressive
policies are needed to reach 2030 goals.
Cost of “Doing Nothing” in Projects
Impact of the project is compared with a 'no build' / 'without project'/ 'doing nothing'
baseline.
Ahmedabad	
  
Cebu	
  
Guangzhou	
  
Pimpri	
  
2500	
  
Chennai	
  
Bangalore	
  
Ho	
  Chi	
  Minh	
  
Manila	
  	
  

2000	
  
1500	
  
1000	
  
500	
  
0	
  

MRT	
  Costs	
  (million	
  USD)	
  

Avoided	
  Infrastructure	
  Costs	
  (million	
  USD)	
  

avoided road space for a BRT is 2 m2 per rider and Metro is 3 m2per rider.
Baseline - what would 'most likely' happen if this project is not executed
Thanks	
  to	
  
Lee	
  Schipper,	
  Lee	
  Schipper	
  Memorial	
  Scholarship	
  for	
  Sustainable	
  
Transport	
  and	
  Energy,Embarq	
  and	
  Clean	
  Air	
  Asia	
  

Car	
  that	
  absorbs	
  its	
  own	
  carbon	
  does	
  not	
  need	
  oil	
  or	
  cause	
  congestion?	
  	
  

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Crunching numbers for low carbon transport in Asia - Sudhir Gota - Lee Schipper Scholar - Transforming Transportation 2014 - EMBARQ The World Bank

  • 1. Crunching Numbers for Low Carbon Transport in Asia! !   Presented at Transforming Transportation 2014! !   Sudhir Gota! !   Lee Schipper Scholar (2013)! Transforming Transportation 2014!
  • 2. Crunching Numbers for Low Carbon Transport in Asia Sudhir Gota Lee Schipper Scholar (2013) Transforming Transportation 16 January 2014 Washington,D.C.   Lee  Schipper  1947-­‐2011  
  • 3. Common sense ? Brazil = 40-50 million vehicles emits 148 MT of CO2 India = 90-100 million vehicles emits 145 MT of CO2 “Top-down is accurate while bottom-up estimates unreliable especially in countries with limited data” Research objective - How to improve credibility and consistency of bottom-up modelling in Asia?
  • 4. The Great Indian Mismatch 350 315 300 Bottom-­‐up   M Tons of CO2 250 200 161 150 145 Top-­‐down   100 50 0 1960 Gasoline   1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
  • 5. The Great Indian ‘Diesel’ Mismatch 100 90 80 Bottom-­‐up   70 60 40 calibration   MTOE 50 30 20 Official  Data   10 0 1980 Revised  Official   1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Poor data and insights cost - 3-10 billion USD diesel subsidy annually ‘low-hanging fruit’ : Prioritize data collection for Diesel vehicles   2010 2015
  • 6. It’s more ‘efficiency’ in the Philippines? 250 GDP/Capita   200 Vehicles   150 Road  Transport   Fuel   Consumption   100 50 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Department of Energy claims ‘reduction’ due to “Impact of policies”
  • 7. It’s more ‘efficiency’ in the Philippines? 140 120 100 CO2   2-3X Increase 80 60 DOE 2030 Target Bottom-up 40 20 Top Down 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 “33%” of fuel sold in the Philippines is smuggled costing 1 billion USD loss of revenues Top Down estimates are not realistic with ground conditions and aggressive policies are needed to reach 2030 goals.
  • 8. Cost of “Doing Nothing” in Projects Impact of the project is compared with a 'no build' / 'without project'/ 'doing nothing' baseline. Ahmedabad   Cebu   Guangzhou   Pimpri   2500   Chennai   Bangalore   Ho  Chi  Minh   Manila     2000   1500   1000   500   0   MRT  Costs  (million  USD)   Avoided  Infrastructure  Costs  (million  USD)   avoided road space for a BRT is 2 m2 per rider and Metro is 3 m2per rider. Baseline - what would 'most likely' happen if this project is not executed
  • 9. Thanks  to   Lee  Schipper,  Lee  Schipper  Memorial  Scholarship  for  Sustainable   Transport  and  Energy,Embarq  and  Clean  Air  Asia   Car  that  absorbs  its  own  carbon  does  not  need  oil  or  cause  congestion?