The document discusses the future of mobility and transportation. It notes that transportation is a major contributor to energy demand and carbon emissions. Electrification is seen as key to making transportation more sustainable, through increasing electric vehicles and charging infrastructure. By 2040, over 300 million electric vehicles could be on roads globally, especially in China, leading to rising electricity demand for transportation. Shared, connected, automated and electric modes of transportation are seen as shaping the future of mobility.

1. Verkeer en vervoer:
De toekomst is elektrisch!
Dutch Power
Utrecht, 30 januari 2019
Jack Doomernik

2. DAAR KRIJG JE ENERGIE VAN.
Het lectoraat Smart Energy is
gericht op energiebesparing en
het inpassen van duurzame
energie, met gebruikmaking van
technologische ontwikkelingen.

3. 17 goals to transform our world

4. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its
impacts
• The world’s cities occupy just 3 per cent of the Earth’s
land, but account for 60-80 per cent of energy
consumption and 75 per cent of carbon emissions.
• As of 2016, 90% of urban dwellers have been breathing
unsafe air, resulting in 4.2 million deaths due to ambient
air pollution.
• More than half of the global urban population were
exposed to air pollution levels at least 2.5 times higher
than the safety standard.

5. Global warming relative to 1850-1900 (°C)
Source: IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C

6. Wat zijn de kansen en bedreigingen?
Huishoudens
& bedrijven
Natte & droge
Infrastructuur
Verkeer en
vervoer
Energie, water
& informatie
Industrie
Kunnen we
restwarmte
benutten?
hoe kunnen we
ons wagenpark
verduurzamen?
Hoe veranderd onze
infrastructuur als we
minder olie importeren?
Kunnen we onze
eigen energie
opwekken?
Wat als
Nederland
aardgasloos
wordt?
Hoe ga ik om
met decentrale
opwekking?
Hoe houden
we droge
voeten?
Hoe gaan we
om met onze
kolencentrales?
Hoe bouwen we een
betrouwbare
laadinfrastructuur?
Wat betekent geothermie en
CO2 opslag in de bodem
voor de drinkwaterkwaliteit?
Hoe ga ik om met
teruglopende
productie en
gestrande assets?
Voldoen onze
kantoren en
gebouwen al aan
energielabel C?
Hoe gaan we
om met
extreme hitte
en regenval?
Kunnen we
waterstof
inzetten?
Moeten we
investeren in
zon, wind,
geothermie, ..?

7. What drives the economies’ energy demand?
Besides road traffic,
transport is largely out
of scope in the 2015
Paris Agreement
In April 2018, the IMO announced a strategy to
reduce GHG emissions from the international shipping
industry by at least 50% from 2008 levels by 2050
The ICAO targets to mitigate CO2 emissions from air
transport by their Carbon Offsetting and Reduction
Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA)
28 European members of UIC have collectively
committed to reduce CO2 emissions per passenger
kilometer and ton kilometer by 50% by 2030

8. Transport is the largest oil-consuming sector today,
accounting for a fifth of global energy demand and a
quarter of energy-related CO2 emissions
10%
11%
15%
20%
8%
8%
10%
16%
Petrochemicals Aviation and shipping Trucks Cars Industry Power Buildings Other
2000
77 mb/d
12%
12%
17%
23%
6%
5%
8%
17%
2017
95 mb/d
15%
15%
18%21%
6%
3%
6%
15%
2040
106 mb/d
Global oil demand by sector (IEA New Policies Scenario)
International Energy Agency (2018), World Energy Outlook 2018, OECD/IEA, Paris
The share of
trucks, cars,
aviation and
shipping in total
oil demand
grows over
50% by 2040

9. Transport accounts for a quarter of
energy-related CO2 emissions
Source: Railway Handbook 2017 Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions, IEA-UIC
More than 95% of
today’s transport sector
emissions are from oil

10. 10 20 30 40
2000
2017
Passenger cars
Bus, two/three
wheelers
Truck stock
Oil demand
mb/d
Will road transport remain the
stronghold of oil demand?
International Energy Agency (2018), World Energy Outlook 2018, OECD/IEA, Paris
300 600 900 1 200
2000
2017
United States
European Union
Eurasia
China
India
Latin America
Middle East
Rest of world
Car stock
MillionTruck stock
50 100 150 200
2000
2017
Million
Cars are responsible for half
of the increase in global
road transport of oil demand
since 2000, reflecting a
large increase in the number
of cars in developing
countries.

11. Energy efficiency and electrification
in road transport towards 2040
• The car fleet increases by 80% towards 2040, but fuel needs are less than
20% higher than today
• Higher efficiency leads to better use of biofuels, for which sustainable
feedstock is limited
• The number of electric cars on the road exceeds 40 million in 2025 and 300
million in 2040 (global car fleet ≈2,000 million vehicles in 2040)
• China leads the way in electric mobility: over 40% of the electric cars in the
world are in China in 2040, as well as nearly 60% of the electric buses
Source: World Energy Outlook 2018, IEA

12. Electrifying transport
200
400
600
800
15%
30%
45%
60%
2017 2040 2017 2040 2017 2040 2017 2040
Electricitydemand(TWh)
EVshare
Other
United States
India
European Union
China
Electricity demand
Two/three-
wheelers
Cars Light-duty
trucks
Heavy-duty
vehicles
(right axis)
• The transport sector accounts for less than 2% of total global electricity use
• Rail is the largest user, responsible for about 70% of transport electricity demand
• Whereas two/three wheelers are the most electrified mode, the biggest incremental
electricity demand comes from cars, with China in the lead
• Electric vehicles are the main reason for the increase of global electricity demand for
transport, taking overall transport electricity demand to more than 1,850 TWh
• Achieving transport electrification will require a massive roll out of charging infrastructure
International Energy Agency (2018), World Energy Outlook 2018, OECD/IEA, Paris

13. Achieving transport electrification will
require a massive roll out of charging infrastructure
1
2
3
4
5
2017 NPSFiES NPSFiES
ThousandTWh
Buses
Trucks
2/3-W
LDVs
Rail
Electricity demand
2025 2040
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
LDVs
2/3-W
Billionvehicles
Electric vehicle fleet in 2040
2
4
6
8
10
Trucks
Buses
Millionvehicles
FiES
NPS
FiES: Future is Electric Scenario
NPS: New Policies Scenario)

14. Competitiveness of electric vehicles
International Energy Agency (2018), World Energy Outlook 2018, OECD/IEA, Paris
Electric vehicles are
becoming increasingly
competitive, with
electric cars reaching
cost parity with internal
combustion engine cars
around the year 2025 in
major markets.

15. De toekomst van mobiliteit
• Shared usage
• Automatic guidance
• Connected
• Electric driven
• What is the fuel station of the future?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLs7YOjC2mE

16. De toekomst van mobiliteit
• Shared usage
• Electric driven
• Automatic guidance
• What is the fuel station of the future?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLs7YOjC2mE

17. Samenvattend
• De UN SDG’s zijn essentieel voor een betere wereld in 2030
• Temperatuurstijging op aarde moet beteugeld worden
• Grote uitdaging voor mobiliteit m.b.t. klimaat en energie
• Olie is en blijft van groot belang voor verkeer en vervoer
• Verduurzaming van verkeer en vervoer door elektriciteit
• Behoefte aan laadinfrastructuur voor mobiliteit en logistiek
neemt sterk toe
“Het doel van de mensheid is
overleven. De mensheid heeft de
aarde en natuur nodig. Ons doel is
om de mensheid te ondersteunen,
en daarmee de aarde en natuur”
Prof. dr. Wubbo J. Ockels (1946-2014)

18. Voor meer informatie:
Dr. Ir. Jack Doomernik MM
Lector Smart Energy
Expertisecentrum Technische Innovatie
Avans Hogeschool
Principal consultant
Stork Asset Management Technology
T 06 5393 6724 / 06 2025 1131
E jemj.doomernik@avans.nl
E jack.doomernik@stork.com
W www.avans.nl / www.stork.com