9411-2.doc

Course: Population Studies Code (9411)
Semester: Spring, 2021
ASSIGNMENT No. 2
Q. 1 Write a comprehensive note on the causes of high population growth in Pakistan.
The population of Pakistan was approximately 100 million; however, the current population of Pakistan is about
210 million. It is expected that the population of Pakistan can cross 300 million by 2050, which is an alarming
situation for Pakistan
Major reasons for the increase in Population are
1. Lack of women Empowerment.
2.Poor response of Population Dept.
3. An increasing rate of illiteracy among the masses.
4. An imbalance between death and birth rate.
5. Lack of family planning.
6. Strong belief in religion.
7. Technological advancement in fertility treatment.
8. Increase in immigrants and Refugees etc.
Due to a high increase in the population, Pakistan is facing serious challenges like shortage of water, electricity,
jobs infrastructure, public transportation, health, education law and order, and other social issues are prevailing
in the society. The population is a big threat for Pakistan. China has reduced the birth rate and controlled the
growth rate of population in a decent way.
According to new trends and technology, the increased population with a high rate is dangerous for Pakistan. It
is time that new reforms may be introduced for family planning and awareness may be created among the
masses regarding the disadvantages of Population. After reducing the rate of birth, we can uplift the socio-
economic conditions of the people of Pakistan.
Pakistan Population 2020 (Live)
221,654,660
According to current population projections, Pakistan will reach its peak population in 2092 of 404.68 million
people. Pakistan’s population is expected to surpass that of Indonesia in 2048 when it will reach 331.29 million.
Between 1998 and 2017, Pakistan’s average population growth rate was 2.40%. For a population of over 220
million, this is a growth of about 5.28 million people per year.
Pakistan has one of the highest birth rates of 22 births per 1,000 people. Very few women use any type of birth
control in Pakistan, and the surging population can put too much pressure on water and sanitation systems,
result in millions of unemployed people, and overwhelm health and education systems.
Pakistan Population Growth
Since the year 1947, when the country became a sovereign state, the population of Pakistan has increased
significantly, particularly because more and more people felt comfortable moving their families and businesses

to the area. Compared to the other countries in the region, the growth rate of Pakistan is about 2.1 percent
higher. It is predicted that in about 35 years, if this growth continues, the population of Pakistan will eventually
become double of what it was back in 2001. Judging from how the population has grown significantly over just
ten years, this “doubled population” figure does not seem to be far off.
Pakistan Population Projections
The current growth rate in Pakistan is close to 2%, but this is expected to halve to less than 1% by the year 2050
- at which point it is predicted to cross the 300 million threshold. The population is predicted to near 210
million by 2020 and get to 245 million by 2030.
Population and Food Supply
The Malthusian theory explained that the population grows in a geometrical fashion.
The population would double in 25 years at this rate. However, the food supply grows in an arithmetic
progression. Food supply increases at a slower rate than the population. That is, the food supply will be limited
in a few years. The shortage of food supply indicates an increasing population.
Checks on Population
When the increasing population rate is greater than the food supply, disequilibrium exists. As a result, people
will not get enough food even for survival. People will die due to lack of food supply. Adversities such as
epidemics, wars, starvation, famines and other natural calamities will crop up which are named as positive
checks by Malthus. On the contrary, there are man-made checks known as preventive checks.
Positive Checks
Nature has its own ways of keeping a check on the increasing population. It brings the population level to the
level of the available food supply. The positive checks include famines, earthquakes, flood, epidemics, wars,
etc. Nature plays up when the population growth goes out of hand.
Preventive Checks
The preventive measures such as late marriage, self-control, simple living, help to balance the population
growth and food supply. These measures not only checks the population growth, but can also prevents the
catastrophic effects of the positive checks.
Criticism of Malthusian Theory of Population
The Malthusian theory was criticised based on the following observations:
1. In Western Europe, the population was rising at a rapid rate. At the same time, the food supply had also
increased due to technological developments.
2. Many times, food production had increased more than the population. For eg., 2% of the total population
is working in the agricultural sector in the US. Still, the total GDP is more than 14 trillion dollars.
3. Malthus theory stated that one of the reasons for limited food supply is non-availability of land.
However, the amount of food supply in various countries has increased due to increased globalization.

4. The estimations for the geometric growth of population and arithmetic growth of population were not
provided by Malthus. It was stated that the rate of growth is not consistent with Malthus’ theory.
Q. 2 What are different measures of fertility? Also highlight the determinants of fertility behavior in a
society like Pakistan.
Over the last half century, the global fertility rate has fallen sharply. In the 1950 to 1955 period, the average
woman was expected to have about five children over the course of her lifetime. By 2010-2015, the global
average was about 2.5 children per woman. According to the United Nations Population Division, worldwide
fertility rates are expected to continue to drop in the decades to come, gradually moving toward 2.1 children per
woman, which is traditionally viewed as the “replacement level” needed to maintain a stable population in
countries with low mortality rates among the young.
As a result of declining fertility rates, global population growth is slowing. Over the four decades from 1970 to
2010, the number of people on Earth grew nearly 90%. From 2010 to 2050, the world’s population is expected
to rise 35%, from roughly 7 billion to more than 9 billion.
Among the world’s major religious groups, Muslims have the highest Total Fertility Rate as of 2010-2015, a
global average of 3.1 children per woman. This is one of the main reasons why the Muslim population is
expected to grow not only in absolute numbers but also in relative terms – as a percentage of all the people in
the world – in the decades to come.
Christians (2.7 children per woman) are the only other major religious group whose Total Fertility Rate, on a
worldwide basis, exceeds the average for all women (2.5), during the present five-year period (2010-2015).
Globally, fertility among Hindus (2.4 children per woman) and Jews (2.3) is above the replacement level (2.1
children). Fertility rates among all the other groups – followers of folk religions (1.8), other religions as a whole
(1.7), the religiously unaffiliated (1.7) and Buddhists (1.6) – are below the replacement level, meaning the
groups are not bearing enough children to maintain their current populations, all else remaining equal.
One of the assumptions behind the U.N.’s global population forecasts, as well as the Pew Research projections,
is that over time fertility rates generally converge toward the replacement level.17 If they start above the
replacement level, they tend to decline. If they start below the replacement level, they tend to rise – although
they may change slowly and may not actually reach the replacement level in the coming decades.
Thus, the religious groups with fertility rates above replacement level in 2010 – Muslims, Christians, Hindus
and Jews – are expected to experience a decline in their fertility rates by 2050. Fertility rates for Muslims and
Hindus are projected to decline most sharply – more than 20% – from 3.1 to 2.3 children per Muslim woman
and from 2.4 to 1.8 children per Hindu woman. Among Christians, the fertility rate is projected to decline from
2.7 children to 2.3. The worldwide fertility rate among Jews also is expected to drop, albeit only slightly, from
2.3 in 2010 to 2.1 in 2050.

Within a single religious group, fertility rates can vary enormously depending on where people live. For
example, Muslims in sub-Saharan Africa have a fertility rate of 5.6 children per woman, on average, while
Muslims in Europe have an average of 2.1 children per woman. Similarly, religiously unaffiliated people in sub-
Saharan Africa have more than four children per woman, on average, while the fertility rate among Europe’s
unaffiliated population – 1.4 children per woman – is well below replacement level.
In most regions where reliable fertility data are available for religious groups, Muslims have more children per
woman than the regional average. Muslims in sub-Saharan Africa have the highest Total Fertility Rate (5.6) of
any major religious group in any large region. Across the Asia-Pacific region, North America and Europe,
fertility rates among Muslims also are higher than among Christians and the unaffiliated. In the Middle East and
North Africa, Muslims make up more than 90% of the population and are largely responsible for the region’s
relatively high fertility rate (3.0).22
Because some religious groups are heavily concentrated in a few regions and are rare in other places, separate
fertility rates cannot be reliably calculated for all groups in all regions. Reliable data on fertility levels are
unavailable, for example, among the relatively small number of Jews in sub-Saharan Africa, Muslims in Latin
America and the Caribbean and religiously unaffiliated people in the Middle East and North Africa.
In the two regions where overall population growth is expected to be fastest in the coming decades – sub-
Saharan Africa and the Middle East-North Africa region – Christian fertility rates are lower than the regional
averages (4.5 children per woman among Christians compared with 4.8 overall in sub-Saharan Africa, and 2.5
among Christians compared with 3.0 overall in the Middle East and North Africa). On the other hand, in the
four regions where overall population growth is expected to be slower, Christian fertility rates equal or exceed
the regional averages. In North America, for example, Christians have a higher fertility rate (2.1) than the
regional population as a whole (2.0).
In almost every region where data are available, the unaffiliated have a fertility rate that is lower than the
regional average. In sub-Saharan Africa, the Asia-Pacific region, North America and Europe, fertility among
religiously unaffiliated people is lower than the regional averages and lower than the rates among Christians and
Muslims. (See chart above.) The one exception is Latin America and the Caribbean, where the unaffiliated have
slightly higher fertility (2.3 children per woman) than the regional average (2.2).
Q. 3 Write a comprehensive note on sources of demographic data.
Source # 1. Population Census:
The most important source of demographic data is the census. The word “census” is derived from the Latin
word censere which means “to assess”.
The New International Webster’s Dictionary defines it thus – “An official count of the people of a country or
district including age, sex, employment, etc.”

A United Nations Study defines the population census as the “total process of collecting, compiling and
publishing demographic, economic and social data pertaining, at a specified time or times to all persons in a
country or delimited territory.”
Thus a population census is an official enumeration of the inhabitants of a country with statistics relating to
their location, age, sex, marital status, literacy status, language, educational level, economic activity, number of
children, migration, etc.
Population census is a regular feature of all progressive countries, whatever be their size and political set up. It
is conducted at regular intervals, usually every 10 years, for fulfilling well-defined objectives.
Salient Features of Census:
A census has the following features:
1. A census is usually conducted after an interval of 10 years.
2. The census covers the entire country or a part of it.
3. The census operations are completed within specified dates.
4. It is organised and conducted by the Government through the Census Commission of the country.
5. For conducting the census a reference period is determined by the Census Commission at that point of time.
6. A household or family is treated as a unit. However in large census operations, migrant individuals and
homeless persons are also enumerated at night at their places of rest or sleep.
7. Before starting the census operations, some preliminary steps are taken by the Census Commission such as
preparation of schedules, lists of households in each area, training of enumerators, etc.
8. The filled up census schedules are collected, examined and analysed statistically by the Census Commission.
9. The census data are published for circulation.
10. The census operations involve collection of information from households from door to door by enumerators.
In some countries, schedules are sent by post and the required information is collected.
11. A census is a process whereby information is collected relating to age, sex, marital status, occupation,
education etc. from people residing in a country.
12. Every country is legally bound to undertake a census after an interval of 10 years and people are bound to
cooperate and provide the required information.
Uses of Census:
Population census is very useful for researchers, administrators, social organisations, etc.
We highlight its uses as under:
1. It provides primary population data relating to age, sex, marital status, economic activities, occupations,
migration, literacy, etc.
2. Population data throw light on the socio-economic problems of the country such as the status of women,
male-female sex ratio, population density, literacy level, urbanisation, living standards, etc.

3. These data help researchers, administrators, planners and social organisations to suggest and adopt measures
to solve the various problems.
4. Census data are used for constructing life tables by insurance companies.
5. They are highly useful for making population projections.
6. Census data are used for carrying out sample surveys.
7. They are used by the Election Commission of the country for demarcation of constituencies and allocation of
seats for municipal corporations, state legislatures and parliament of the country.
8. Population data are one of the bases of allocation of resources between the centre and states in a federal
country.
9. They guide the city planners in planning measures for the future growth of cities regarding their future needs
relating to housing, transport, flyovers, sanitation, pollution, water, educational institutions, etc.
10. Population projections and age-sex structure of the population help the government in estimating for the
future military personnel of the country.
Some Problems of Census:
Census operations are costly in terms of men, materials and money. They require huge manpower, piles of
forms containing schedules and lot of money on them and on processing, preparing and publishing population
data. The entire census work is also very time consuming.
Besides, there are some other problems listed below:
1. Census is not a continuous process and is usually conducted after 10 years. So this is an ad hoc work which
requires the training of census staff before each census. Thus experienced staff is not available.
2. The enumerators often interpret the terms used in the schedules in their own way despite the guidelines
supplied to them by the Census Commission.
3. In the census operations, the enumerators are required to go from door to door to collect information. This
work is not only time consuming but also monotonous. Some enumerators who shirk work and are dishonest fill
up the schedules with cooked up figures sitting at home.
4. Often many persons are reluctant to provide correct information for fear that it may be used for some other
purposes. This happens if the household is illiterate or the enumerator is not able to convince the former that the
entire information is kept secret by law.
5. The household schedule pertaining to the census does not have any column about the number of family
members who might have gone abroad.
6. In many developing countries, the column in the household schedule relating to age is based on age groups 1-
5, 6-10, etc. thereby leaving a wide gap of 5 years. This creates a problem for the enumerator to fill up the age
column which becomes a mere guess work. This is a defective method because age- specific information cannot
be collected. In India and developed countries, age at the last birth in completed years is taken.

We may conclude with Barclay:
“In practice, some people are always missing. It is unpracticable to include all cases which belong to the
universe. Some cases which ought to be covered according to rule are always omitted. On the other hand, some
may be recorded more than once.”
Source # 2. Registration:
Another source of population data is the registration of life or vital statistics. Every person is required by law to
register with a specified authority such demographic events as birth, death, marriage, divorce, etc. Unlike the
census, registration of vital events is a continuous process throughout the year.
It is an important source of information about citizenship, marital status, succession rights and settlement of
disputes regarding birth and death.
Registration is a secondary source of demographic data which is available from four sources:
(1) Vital Registration;
(2) Population Register;
(3) Other Records, and
(4) International Publications.
They are explained as under:
1. Vital Registration:
Recording of vital events (or vital statistics) like births, deaths, marriages, divorces, etc. is obligatory on the part
of every citizen in a country. For instance, the birth of a child has got to be registered with the municipal
corporation of the town where the child is born in India.
Similarly, the occurrence of a death is required to be registered.
Such registration involves the filling up of a proforma with the following columns in each case:
Birth Certificate:
Name, Father’s Name, Mother’s Name, Age of Father, Age of Mother and Legitimacy.
Death Certificate:
Name of the deceased, date of death, sex, race/caste, age of the deceased, place of death, cause of death,
occupation, marital status, permanent residence, etc.
In developed countries and in many developing countries, registration of marriage is also compulsory. But it is
not so in India. Very few people want to register marriages with the Registrar of Marriages in developing
countries like India. Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
Similarly, in almost all the developing countries where the majority of people are illiterate and reside in rural
areas, births and deaths are not reported to the registration authorities. Thus the registration records remain
incomplete and ars imperfect source of demographic data.

But this is not the case in developed countries where people are educated and record births, deaths, marriages,
divorces, etc. with the appropriate authorities.
2. Population Register:
This is another secondary source of collecting population data. A number of European and Asian countries like
Belgium, Sweden, Korea, Israel, etc. maintain permanent population register for administrative and legal
purposes.
It contains the names, addresses, age, sex, etc. of every citizen, of those who migrate to other countries and who
enter the country. The population registers helps in verifying the correctness of the census figures for that year.
3. Other Records:
Besides the population register, there are other records which are secondary sources of demographic data in
developed countries. They maintain population records to meet social security schemes like unemployment
insurance and allowance, old age pension, maternity allowance, etc.
In some countries, insurance companies maintain life tables relating to births and deaths and population trends.
Selective demographic data are also available from electoral lists, income tax payers’ lists, telephone
subscribers’ lists, etc. Though such administrative data are limited, they are helpful in providing for carrying out
sample surveys.
4. International Publications:
Other sources of demographic data for the world and different countries are the United Nations Demographic
Year Book and Statistical Year Book. The World Health Organisation (WHO) publishes a monthly journal
Epidemiological and Vital Records which gives data on public health and mortality of different countries.
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in its Human Development Report and the World Bank
in its World Development Report publish annually demographic data relating to population growth, projections,
fertility, mortality, health, etc. for countries of the world.
Source # 3. Sample Surveys:
Sample survey is another source of collecting population data. In a sample survey, information is collected from
a sample of individuals rather than from the entire population. A sample consists of only a fraction of the total
population. Several different population samples can be drawn on the basis of sample surveys such as the
number of abortions, contraceptives used, etc. for the study of fertility.
Some countries conduct national sample surveys based on Random Sampling or Stratified Random Sampling.
Whatever method is adopted, care should be taken to select a representative sample of the total population. The
survey of the sample requires a small trained staff and small questionnaires relating to one aspect of the
population. The data so collected are tabulated, analysed and published.
So this method takes less time and is less costly. Sample survey can be used to supplement the census data and
to carry out further the trends in population growth in between two census operations. Sampling is also used to

check the accuracy of the census data where there is doubt in census results. This method yields good results if
the sample is properly chosen.
Limitations:
The sampling method has certain limitations.
1. It is highly subjective and it is possible to arrive at different data with different samples of the same
population.
2. There are bound to be errors in coverage, classification and sampling of population data.
3. As the survey requires many surveyors who may not be efficient and sincere, it is subject to large errors.
4. If the informants in the sample do not cooperate with the surveyors, the survey will not give accurate results.
To conclude with Stephen, “Samples are like medicines. They can be harmful when they are taken carelessly or
without adequate knowledge of their effects.”
Q. 4 What do you mean by “Population Process”? Explain and highlight their importance.
Census is one of the popular approaches that statisticians use in collecting primary data. In this article, we will look
at the census definition along with merits and demerits of census investigation.
Under the census or complete enumeration method, the statistician collects the data for each and every unit of
the population or universe. This universe is a complete set of items which are of interest in any situation.
Merits of a Census Investigation
Now that the census definition is clear, let’s look at the merits of a census investigation.
 Intensive Study – Under census investigation, you must obtain data from each and every unit of the
population. Further, it enables the statistician to study more than one aspect of all items of the population.
To give you an example, the Indian Government conducts a census investigation once every 10 years. The
authorities collect the data regarding the population size, males, and females, education levels, sources
of income, religion, etc.
 Reliable Data – The data that a statistician collects through a census investigation is more reliable,
representative, and accurate. This is because, in a census, the statistician observes every item personally.
 Suitable Choice – It is a great choice in situations where the different items of the population are
not homogeneous.
 The basis of various surveys – Data from a census investigation is used as a basis in various surveys.
Demerits of a Census Investigation
A census investigation also has certain demerits. Some of these demerits are:
 Costs – Since the statistician closely observes each and every item of the population before collecting the
data, it makes a census investigation a very costly method of investigation. Usually, government
organizations adopt this method to collect detailed data like the population census or agricultural census or
the census of industrial protection, etc.

 Time-consuming – A census investigation is time-consuming and also requires manpower to collect
original data.
 Possibilities of Errors – There are many possibilities of errors in the census investigation method due to
non-response, measurement, lack of preciseness of the definition of statistical units or even the personal bias
of the investigators.
There are a number of different surveys conducted by the US Census. There are a few:
American Community Survey (ACS)
This survey asks many more questions than the Decennial Survey. Information from this survey helps
communities plan budgets for schools, elder programs, veterans, transportation, and issues like how many
people have access to health care.
American Housing Survey (AHS)
“The AHS is sponsored by the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and conducted by the
U.S. Census Bureau. The survey is the most comprehensive national housing survey in the United States.”
Census of Governments
“The Census of Governments identifies the scope and nature of the nation's state and local government sector;
provides authoritative benchmark figures of public finance and public employment.”
Decennial Census
This Census happens every ten years and counts all residence in the country. It is often referred to by the year
ie: 2020 Census.
Economic Census
This census started in 1810 with the first Census of Manufactures. This information is now gathered every five
years. “The Economic Census provides detailed information on employer businesses, including detailed data by
industry, geography, and more. The first data release will be in September 2019.”
Q. 5 How do population growth rates effect the socioeconomic development of a society? Discuss.
This answer sets forth 3 positions on population growth: 1) rapid population growth is a central development
problem that implies lower living standards for the poor; 2) proposals for reducing population growth raise
difficult questions about the proper domain of public policy, yet it is acceptable for governments to attempt to
influence private decisions about family size; and 3) the experience in many developing countries shows that
quick, effective measures can be taken to reduce fertility. Rapid population growth has slowed development
because it exacerbates the difficult choice between higher consumption in the present and the investment
needed to bring higher consumption in the future. As populations grow, larger investments are needed just to
maintain current capital/person. It further threatens the balance between natural resources and people and
creates severe economic and social problems in urban areas. Public policy must provide alternative ways for

poor families to secure the benefits provided by large family size. That is, governments need to provide tangible
evidence that it really is in the best interests of parents to have fewer children. Also required is greater
infomation about and access to fertility control. When family planning services have been widespread and
affordable, fertility has decline faster than social and economic progress alone would predict. There is a need
for immediate action to improve women's status and to make education, family planning, and primary health
care more available. Although economic and social progress help to slow population growth, rapid population
growth hinders development. Thus, governments must act simultaneously on both fronts. Accumulating
evidence on population growth in developing countries shows that is the combination of social development and
family planning that reduces fertility.
The relationship between population growth and economic development has been a recurrent theme in
economic analysis since at least 1798 when Thomas Malthus famously argued that population growth would
depress living standards in the long run. The theory was simple: given that there is a fixed quantity of land,
population growth will eventually reduce the amount of resources that each individual can consume, ultimately
resulting in disease, starvation, and war. The way to avoid such unfortunate outcomes was ‘moral restraint’ (i.e.
refraining from having too many children). He didn’t foresee the technological advances that would raise
agricultural productivity and reduce the toll of infectious diseases—advances that have enabled the world’s
population to grow from 1 billion in 1798 to 7.4 billion today.
Nevertheless, his essential insight that population growth constitutes a potential threat to economic development
remained influential and informed international development policy agendas, especially in the 1950s and
1960s—a period marked by unprecedentedly rapid rates of population growth in many developing countries.
At that time, the general view of economists was that high birth rates and rapid population growth in poor
countries would divert scarce capital away from savings and investment, thereby placing a drag on economic
development. They hypothesized that larger families have fewer aggregate resources and fewer resources per
child. Larger families therefore spread their resources more thinly to support more children. This leaves less for
saving and investing in growth-enhancing activities. It also reduces spending on enhancing the economic
potential of each child (e.g. through education and health expenditures). From the time of Malthus onwards,
economists, demographers and other social scientists have been debating whether and how high fertility and
rapid population growth affect economic outcomes and vice versa. There are at least four basic forms of the
debate.
i. Does a large number of children diminish a family's present well being and future prospects?
ii. Does rapid population growth adversely affect the overall performance of the economy and its ability to
achieve and sustain general well being?
iii. Does low income, or poverty, contribute to high fertility?

iv. Is rapid population growth a symptom, rather than a cause, of low national output and poor economic
performance?
In other words, the debates occur at both the macro- and the micro-levels and are about the direction of
causality.
Despite these debates, a broad consensus has developed over time that as incomes rise, fertility tends to fall.
There is little debate about the causal relationship between rising prosperity and declining fertility. Generally
speaking, there has been a uniformly high correlation between national income growth and falling birth rates,
and between family incomes and fertility. Economists and demographers for the most part agree that important
ingredients of improved living standards, such as urbanization, industrialization and rising opportunities for
non-agrarian employment, improved educational levels, and better health all lead to changed parental
perceptions of the costs and benefits of children, leading in turn to lower fertility. In other words, there is no
longer much debate about whether or not improved economic conditions, whether at the family level or at the
societal level, lead to lower fertility. There are, of course, important differences between countries, and even
within countries, regarding the timing and the pace of these changes, but that there is a causal relationship
running from improved living standards to lower fertility is no longer in much dispute.
Where debate remains active and at times quite contentious has to do with whether causality runs the other
way—i.e. does reduced fertility improve the economic prospects of families and societies? Here there is
anything but consensus, although, as I will argue in this paper, there appears to be a slowly growing
convergence of views in favour of an affirmative answer to this question. This paper, in other words, addresses
the question of whether reduced fertility, and more particularly public policies designed to reduce fertility, can
lead to higher incomes and improved living standards.
A good deal of research, of course, has been conducted on this question. The paper attempts to summarize the
present state of such research and the conclusions that emerge from it today. My purpose is to try to identify
what policymakers can conclude from the present state of research and then to speculate on what might be
accomplished between now and 2050 if policymakers were to pursue what I take to be the course of action
suggested by the research findings.

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