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© 2011 Pearson
3 - 1
3 Project Management
PowerPoint presentation to accompanyPowerPoint presentation to accompany
Heizer and RenderHeizer and Render
Operations Management, 10eOperations Management, 10e
Principles of Operations Management, 8ePrinciples of Operations Management, 8e
PowerPoint slides by Jeff Heyl
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 2
OutlineOutline
 Global Company Profile: Bechtel
Group
 The Importance of Project
Management
 Project Planning
 The Project Manager
 Work Breakdown Structure
 Project Scheduling
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 3
Outline - ContinuedOutline - Continued
 Project Controlling
 Project Management Techniques:
PERT and CPM
 The Framework of PERT and CPM
 Network Diagrams and Approaches
 Activity-on-Node Example
 Activity-on-Arrow Example
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 4
Outline - ContinuedOutline - Continued
 Determining the Project Schedule
 Forward Pass
 Backward Pass
 Calculating Slack Time and
Identifying the Critical Path(s)
 Variability in Activity Times
 Three Time Estimates in PERT
 Probability of Project Completion
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 5
Outline - ContinuedOutline - Continued
 Cost-Time Trade-Offs and Project
Crashing
 A Critique of PERT and CPM
 Using Microsoft Project to Manage
Projects
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 6
Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives
1. Use a Gantt chart for scheduling
2. Draw AOA and AON networks
3. Complete forward and backward
passes for a project
4. Determine a critical path
When you complete this chapter youWhen you complete this chapter you
should be able to:should be able to:
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 7
Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives
5. Calculate the variance of
activity times
6. Crash a project
When you complete this chapter youWhen you complete this chapter you
should be able to:should be able to:
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 8
Bechtel ProjectsBechtel Projects
 Building 26 massive distribution centers in just
two years for the internet company Webvan
Group ($1 billion)
 Constructing 30 high-security data centers
worldwide for Equinix, Inc. ($1.2 billion)
 Building and running a rail line between London
and the Channel Tunnel ($4.6 billion)
 Developing an oil pipeline from the Caspian Sea
region to Russia ($850 million)
 Expanding the Dubai Airport in the UAE ($600
million), and the Miami Airport in Florida ($2
billion)
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 9
Bechtel ProjectsBechtel Projects
 Building liquid natural gas plants in Yemen $2
billion) and in Trinidad, West Indies ($1 billion)
 Building a new subway for Athens, Greece ($2.6
billion)
 Constructing a natural gas pipeline in Thailand
($700 million)
 Building 30 plants for iMotors.com, a company
that sells refurbished autos online ($300 million)
 Building a highway to link the north and south of
Croatia ($303 million)
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 10
Strategic Importance ofStrategic Importance of
Project ManagementProject Management
 Bechtel Project Management:
 Iraq war aftermath
 International workforce, construction
professionals, cooks, medical personnel,
security
 Millions of tons of supplies
 Hard Rock Cafe Rockfest Project:
 100,000 + fans
 planning began 9 months in advance
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 11
 Single unit
 Many related activities
 Difficult production planning and
inventory control
 General purpose equipment
 High labor skills
Project CharacteristicsProject Characteristics
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 12
Examples of ProjectsExamples of Projects
 Building Construction
 Research Project
© 2011 Pearson
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Management of ProjectsManagement of Projects
1. Planning - goal setting, defining the
project, team organization
2. Scheduling - relates people, money,
and supplies to specific activities
and activities to each other
3. Controlling - monitors resources,
costs, quality, and budgets; revises
plans and shifts resources to meet
time and cost demands
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 14
 Planning
Objectives
Resources
Work break-down
structure
Organization
Scheduling
Project activities
Start & end times
Network
Controlling
Monitor, compare, revise, action
Project ManagementProject Management
ActivitiesActivities
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 15
Project Planning,Project Planning,
Scheduling, and ControllingScheduling, and Controlling
Figure 3.1
Before Start of project During
project Timeline project
© 2011 Pearson
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Project Planning,Project Planning,
Scheduling, and ControllingScheduling, and Controlling
Figure 3.1
Before Start of project During
project Timeline project
© 2011 Pearson
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Project Planning,Project Planning,
Scheduling, and ControllingScheduling, and Controlling
Figure 3.1
Before Start of project During
project Timeline project
© 2011 Pearson
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Project Planning,Project Planning,
Scheduling, and ControllingScheduling, and Controlling
Figure 3.1
Before Start of project During
project Timeline project
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 19
Project Planning,Project Planning,
Scheduling, and ControllingScheduling, and Controlling
Figure 3.1
Before Start of project During
project Timeline project
Budgets
Delayed activities report
Slack activities report
Time/cost estimates
Budgets
Engineering diagrams
Cash flow charts
Material availability details
CPM/PERT
Gantt charts
Milestone charts
Cash flow schedules
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 20
 Establishing objectives
 Defining project
 Creating work
breakdown structure
 Determining
resources
 Forming organization
Project PlanningProject Planning
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 21
 Often temporary structure
 Uses specialists from entire company
 Headed by project manager
 Coordinates activities
 Monitors schedule
and costs
 Permanent
structure called
‘matrix organization’
Project OrganizationProject Organization
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 22
Project OrganizationProject Organization
Works Best WhenWorks Best When
1. Work can be defined with a specific
goal and deadline
2. The job is unique or somewhat
unfamiliar to the existing organization
3. The work contains complex
interrelated tasks requiring specialized
skills
4. The project is temporary but critical to
the organization
5. The project cuts across organizational
lines
© 2011 Pearson
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A Sample ProjectA Sample Project
OrganizationOrganization
Test
Engineer
Mechanical
Engineer
Project 1 Project
Manager
Technician
Technician
Project 2 Project
Manager
Electrical
Engineer
Computer
Engineer
Marketing Finance
Human
Resources Design
Quality
Mgt
Production
President
Figure 3.2
© 2011 Pearson
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Matrix OrganizationMatrix Organization
Marketing Operations Engineering Finance
Project 1
Project 2
Project 3
Project 4
© 2011 Pearson
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The Role ofThe Role of
the Project Managerthe Project Manager
Highly visibleHighly visible
Responsible for making sure that:Responsible for making sure that:
1. All necessary activities are finished in order
and on time
2. The project comes in within budget
3. The project meets quality goals
4. The people assigned to the project receive
motivation, direction, and information
© 2011 Pearson
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The Role ofThe Role of
the Project Managerthe Project Manager
Highly visibleHighly visible
Responsible for making sure that:Responsible for making sure that:
1. All necessary activities are finished in order
and on time
2. The project comes in within budget
3. The project meets quality goals
4. The people assigned to the project receive
motivation, direction, and information
Project managers should be:
 Good coaches
 Good communicators
 Able to organize activities
from a variety of disciplines
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 27
Ethical IssuesEthical Issues
1. Offers of gifts from contractors
2. Pressure to alter status reports to mask delays
3. False reports for charges of time and expenses
4. Pressure to compromise quality to meet
schedules
 Project managers face many ethical
decisions on a daily basis
 The Project Management Institute has
established an ethical code to deal with
problems such as:
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 28
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure
Level
1. Project
2. Major tasks in the project
3. Subtasks in the major tasks
4. Activities (or work packages)
to be completed
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 29
Level 4
Compatible with
Windows ME
Compatible with
Windows Vista
Compatible with
Windows XP 1.1.2.3
1.1.2.2
1.1.2.1
(Work packages)
Level 3
Develop
GUIs
Planning
Module
Testing
Ensure Compatibility
with Earlier Versions
Cost/Schedule
Management
Defect
Testing
1.1.1
1.2.2 1.3.2
1.3.11.2.1
1.1.2
Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure
Figure 3.3
Level 2
Software
Design
Project
Management
System
Testing1.1 1.2 1.3
Level 1
Develop Windows 7
Operating System 1.0
© 2011 Pearson
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Project SchedulingProject Scheduling
 Identifying precedence
relationships
 Sequencing activities
 Determining activity
times & costs
 Estimating material &
worker requirements
 Determining critical
activities
© 2011 Pearson
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Purposes of ProjectPurposes of Project
SchedulingScheduling
1. Shows the relationship of each activity to
others and to the whole project
2. Identifies the precedence relationships
among activities
3. Encourages the setting of realistic time
and cost estimates for each activity
4. Helps make better use of people, money,
and material resources by identifying
critical bottlenecks in the project
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 32
Scheduling TechniquesScheduling Techniques
1. Ensure that all activities are planned
for
2. Their order of performance is
accounted for
3. The activity time estimates are
recorded
4. The overall project time is developed
© 2011 Pearson
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 Gantt chart
 Critical Path Method
(CPM)
 Program Evaluation
and Review
Technique (PERT)
Project ManagementProject Management
TechniquesTechniques
© 2011 Pearson
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A Simple Gantt ChartA Simple Gantt Chart
Time
J F M A M J J A S
Design
Prototype
Test
Revise
Production
© 2011 Pearson
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Service For a Delta JetService For a Delta Jet
Figure 3.4
Passengers
Baggage
Fueling
Cargo and mail
Galley servicing
Lavatory servicing
Drinking water
Cabin cleaning
Cargo and mail
Flight services
Operating crew
Baggage
Passengers
Deplaning
Baggage claim
Container offload
Pumping
Engine injection water
Container offload
Main cabin door
Aft cabin door
Aft, center, forward
Loading
First-class section
Economy section
Container/bulk loading
Galley/cabin check
Receive passengers
Aircraft check
Loading
Boarding
0 10 20 30 40
Time, Minutes
© 2011 Pearson
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Project Control ReportsProject Control Reports
 Detailed cost breakdowns for each task
 Total program labor curves
 Cost distribution tables
 Functional cost and hour summaries
 Raw materials and expenditure forecasts
 Variance reports
 Time analysis reports
 Work status reports
© 2011 Pearson
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 Network techniques
 Developed in 1950’s
 CPM by DuPont for chemical plants (1957)
 PERT by Booz, Allen & Hamilton with the
U.S. Navy, for Polaris missile (1958)
 Consider precedence relationships and
interdependencies
 Each uses a different estimate of
activity times
PERT and CPMPERT and CPM
© 2011 Pearson
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Six Steps PERT & CPMSix Steps PERT & CPM
1. Define the project and prepare the
work breakdown structure
2. Develop relationships among the
activities - decide which activities
must precede and which must
follow others
3. Draw the network connecting all of
the activities
© 2011 Pearson
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Six Steps PERT & CPMSix Steps PERT & CPM
4. Assign time and/or cost estimates
to each activity
5. Compute the longest time path
through the network – this is called
the critical path
6. Use the network to help plan,
schedule, monitor, and control the
project
© 2011 Pearson
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1. When will the entire project be
completed?
2. What are the critical activities or tasks in
the project?
3. Which are the noncritical activities?
4. What is the probability the project will be
completed by a specific date?
Questions PERT & CPMQuestions PERT & CPM
Can AnswerCan Answer
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 41
5. Is the project on schedule, behind
schedule, or ahead of schedule?
6. Is the money spent equal to, less than, or
greater than the budget?
7. Are there enough resources available to
finish the project on time?
8. If the project must be finished in a shorter
time, what is the way to accomplish this
at least cost?
Questions PERT & CPMQuestions PERT & CPM
Can AnswerCan Answer
© 2011 Pearson
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A Comparison of AON andA Comparison of AON and
AOA Network ConventionsAOA Network Conventions
Activity on Activity Activity on
Node (AON) Meaning Arrow (AOA)
A comes before
B, which comes
before C.
(a) A B C
BA C
A and B must both
be completed
before C can start.
(b)
A
C
C
B
A
B
B and C cannot
begin until A is
completed.
(c)
B
A
C
A
B
C
Figure 3.5
© 2011 Pearson
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A Comparison of AON andA Comparison of AON and
AOA Network ConventionsAOA Network Conventions
Activity on Activity Activity on
Node (AON) Meaning Arrow (AOA)
C and D cannot
begin until both
A and B are
completed.
(d)
A
B
C
D B
A C
D
C cannot begin
until both A and B
are completed; D
cannot begin until
B is completed. A
dummy activity is
introduced in AOA.
(e)
CA
B D
Dummy activity
A
B
C
D
Figure 3.5
© 2011 Pearson
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A Comparison of AON andA Comparison of AON and
AOA Network ConventionsAOA Network Conventions
Activity on Activity Activity on
Node (AON) Meaning Arrow (AOA)
B and C cannot
begin until A is
completed. D
cannot begin
until both B and
C are completed.
A dummy
activity is again
introduced in
AOA.
(f)
A
C
DB A B
C
D
Dummy
activity
Figure 3.5
© 2011 Pearson
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AON ExampleAON Example
Activity Description
Immediate
Predecessors
A Build internal components —
B Modify roof and floor —
C Construct collection stack A
D Pour concrete and install frame A, B
E Build high-temperature burner C
F Install pollution control system C
G Install air pollution device D, E
H Inspect and test F, G
Milwaukee Paper Manufacturing'sMilwaukee Paper Manufacturing's
Activities and PredecessorsActivities and Predecessors
Table 3.1
© 2011 Pearson
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AON Network forAON Network for
Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper
A
Start
BStart
Activity
Activity A
(Build Internal Components)
Activity B
(Modify Roof and Floor)
Figure 3.6
© 2011 Pearson
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AON Network forAON Network for
Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper
Figure 3.7
C
D
A
Start
B
Activity A Precedes Activity C
Activities A and B
Precede Activity D
© 2011 Pearson
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AON Network forAON Network for
Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper
G
E
F
H
CA
Start
DB
Arrows Show Precedence
Relationships Figure 3.8
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 49
H
(Inspect/
Test)
7Dummy
Activity
AOA Network forAOA Network for
Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper
6
F(Install
Controls)
E
(BuildBurner)
G
(Install
Pollution
Device)
5
D
(Pour
Concrete/
Install Frame)
4
C
(Construct
Stack)
1
3
2
B(M
odify
Roof/Floor)
A
(B
uild
Internal
C
om
ponents)
Figure 3.9
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 50
Determining the ProjectDetermining the Project
ScheduleSchedule
Perform a Critical Path AnalysisPerform a Critical Path Analysis
 The critical path is the longest path
through the network
 The critical path is the shortest time in
which the project can be completed
 Any delay in critical path activities
delays the project
 Critical path activities have no slack
time
© 2011 Pearson
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Determining the ProjectDetermining the Project
ScheduleSchedule
Perform a Critical Path AnalysisPerform a Critical Path Analysis
Table 3.2
Activity Description Time (weeks)
A Build internal components 2
B Modify roof and floor 3
C Construct collection stack 2
D Pour concrete and install frame 4
E Build high-temperature burner 4
F Install pollution control system 3
G Install air pollution device 5
H Inspect and test 2
Total Time (weeks) 25
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 52
Determining the ProjectDetermining the Project
ScheduleSchedule
Perform a Critical Path AnalysisPerform a Critical Path Analysis
Table 3.2
Activity Description Time (weeks)
A Build internal components 2
B Modify roof and floor 3
C Construct collection stack 2
D Pour concrete and install frame 4
E Build high-temperature burner 4
F Install pollution control system 3
G Install air pollution device 5
H Inspect and test 2
Total Time (weeks) 25
Earliest start (ES) = earliest time at
which an activity can start, assuming
all predecessors have been completed
Earliest finish (EF) = earliest time at
which an activity can be finished
Latest start (LS) = latest time at
which an activity can start so as to not
delay the completion time of the entire
project
Latest finish (LF) = latest time by
which an activity has to be finished so
as to not delay the completion time of
the entire project
© 2011 Pearson
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Determining the ProjectDetermining the Project
ScheduleSchedule
Perform a Critical Path AnalysisPerform a Critical Path Analysis
Figure 3.10
A
Activity Name
or Symbol
Earliest
Start
ES
Earliest
FinishEF
Latest
Start
LS Latest
Finish
LF
Activity Duration
2
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 54
Forward PassForward Pass
Begin at starting event and work forwardBegin at starting event and work forward
Earliest Start Time Rule:
 If an activity has only a single immediate
predecessor, its ES equals the EF of the
predecessor
 If an activity has multiple immediate
predecessors, its ES is the maximum of
all the EF values of its predecessors
ES = Max {EF of all immediate predecessors}
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 55
Forward PassForward Pass
Begin at starting event and work forwardBegin at starting event and work forward
Earliest Finish Time Rule:
 The earliest finish time (EF) of an activity
is the sum of its earliest start time (ES)
and its activity time
EF = ES + Activity time
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 56
ES/EF Network forES/EF Network for
Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper
Start
0
0
ES
0
EF = ES + Activity time
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 57
ES/EF Network forES/EF Network for
Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper
Start
0
0
0
A
2
2
EF of A =
ES of A + 2
0
ES
of A
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 58
B
3
ES/EF Network forES/EF Network for
Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper
Start
0
0
0
A
2
20
3
EF of B =
ES of B + 3
0
ES
of B
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 59
C
2
2 4
ES/EF Network forES/EF Network for
Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper
B
3
0 3
Start
0
0
0
A
2
20
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 60
C
2
2 4
ES/EF Network forES/EF Network for
Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper
B
3
0 3
Start
0
0
0
A
2
20
D
4
73
= Max (2, 3)
© 2011 Pearson
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D
4
3 7
C
2
2 4
ES/EF Network forES/EF Network for
Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper
B
3
0 3
Start
0
0
0
A
2
20
© 2011 Pearson
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E
4
F
3
G
5
H
2
4 8 13 15
4
8 13
7
D
4
3 7
C
2
2 4
ES/EF Network forES/EF Network for
Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper
B
3
0 3
Start
0
0
0
A
2
20
Figure 3.11
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 63
Backward PassBackward Pass
Begin with the last event and work backwardsBegin with the last event and work backwards
Latest Finish Time Rule:
 If an activity is an immediate predecessor
for just a single activity, its LF equals the
LS of the activity that immediately follows
it
 If an activity is an immediate predecessor
to more than one activity, its LF is the
minimum of all LS values of all activities
that immediately follow it
LF = Min {LS of all immediate following activities}
© 2011 Pearson
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Backward PassBackward Pass
Begin with the last event and work backwardsBegin with the last event and work backwards
Latest Start Time Rule:
 The latest start time (LS) of an activity is
the difference of its latest finish time (LF)
and its activity time
LS = LF – Activity time
© 2011 Pearson
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LS/LF Times forLS/LF Times for
Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper
E
4
F
3
G
5
H
2
4 8 13 15
4
8 13
7
D
4
3 7
C
2
2 4
B
3
0 3
Start
0
0
0
A
2
20
LF = EF
of Project
1513
LS = LF – Activity time
© 2011 Pearson
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LS/LF Times forLS/LF Times for
Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper
E
4
F
3
G
5
H
2
4 8 13 15
4
8 13
7
13 15
D
4
3 7
C
2
2 4
B
3
0 3
Start
0
0
0
A
2
20
LF = Min(LS of
following activity)
10 13
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 67
LS/LF Times forLS/LF Times for
Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper
E
4
F
3
G
5
H
2
4 8 13 15
4
8 13
7
13 15
10 13
8 13
4 8
D
4
3 7
C
2
2 4
B
3
0 3
Start
0
0
0
A
2
20
LF = Min(4, 10)
42
© 2011 Pearson
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LS/LF Times forLS/LF Times for
Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper
E
4
F
3
G
5
H
2
4 8 13 15
4
8 13
7
13 15
10 13
8 13
4 8
D
4
3 7
C
2
2 4
B
3
0 3
Start
0
0
0
A
2
20
42
84
20
41
00
© 2011 Pearson
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Computing Slack TimeComputing Slack Time
After computing the ES, EF, LS, and LF times
for all activities, compute the slack or free
time for each activity
 Slack is the length of time an activity can
be delayed without delaying the entire
project
Slack = LS – ES or Slack = LF – EF
© 2011 Pearson
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Computing Slack TimeComputing Slack Time
Table 3.3
Earliest Earliest Latest Latest On
Start Finish Start Finish Slack Critical
Activity ES EF LS LF LS – ES Path
A 0 2 0 2 0 Yes
B 0 3 1 4 1 No
C 2 4 2 4 0 Yes
D 3 7 4 8 1 No
E 4 8 4 8 0 Yes
F 4 7 10 13 6 No
G 8 13 8 13 0 Yes
H 13 15 13 15 0 Yes
© 2011 Pearson
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Critical Path forCritical Path for
Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper
E
4
F
3
G
5
H
2
4 8 13 15
4
8 13
7
13 15
10 13
8 13
4 8
D
4
3 7
C
2
2 4
B
3
0 3
Start
0
0
0
A
2
20
42
84
20
41
00
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 72
ES – EF Gantt ChartES – EF Gantt Chart
for Milwaukee Paperfor Milwaukee Paper
A Build internal
components
B Modify roof and floor
C Construct collection
stack
D Pour concrete and
install frame
E Build high-
temperature burner
F Install pollution
control system
G Install air pollution
device
H Inspect and test
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 73
LS – LF Gantt ChartLS – LF Gantt Chart
for Milwaukee Paperfor Milwaukee Paper
A Build internal
components
B Modify roof and floor
C Construct collection
stack
D Pour concrete and
install frame
E Build high-
temperature burner
F Install pollution
control system
G Install air pollution
device
H Inspect and test
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
© 2011 Pearson
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 CPM assumes we know a fixed time
estimate for each activity and there
is no variability in activity times
 PERT uses a probability distribution
for activity times to allow for
variability
Variability in Activity TimesVariability in Activity Times
© 2011 Pearson
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 Three time estimates are required
 Optimistic time (a) – if everything
goes according to plan
 Pessimistic time (b) – assuming very
unfavorable conditions
 Most likely time (m) – most realistic
estimate
Variability in Activity TimesVariability in Activity Times
© 2011 Pearson
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Estimate follows beta distributionEstimate follows beta distribution
Variability in Activity TimesVariability in Activity Times
Expected time:
Variance of times:
t = (a + 4m + b)/6
v = [(b – a)/6]2
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 77
Estimate follows beta distributionEstimate follows beta distribution
Variability in Activity TimesVariability in Activity Times
Expected time:Expected time:
Variance of times:Variance of times:
t =t = ((a +a + 44mm ++ bb)/6)/6
v =v = [([(bb −− aa)/6]2)/6]2
Probability
of 1 in 100 of
> b occurring
Probability of
1 in 100 of
< a occurring
Probability
Optimistic
Time (a)
Most Likely
Time (m)
Pessimistic
Time (b)
Activity
Time
Figure 3.12
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 78
Computing VarianceComputing Variance
Table 3.4
Most Expected
Optimistic Likely Pessimistic Time Variance
Activity a m b t = (a + 4m + b)/6 [(b – a)/6]2
A 1 2 3 2 .11
B 2 3 4 3 .11
C 1 2 3 2 .11
D 2 4 6 4 .44
E 1 4 7 4 1.00
F 1 2 9 3 1.78
G 3 4 11 5 1.78
H 1 2 3 2 .11
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 79
Probability of ProjectProbability of Project
CompletionCompletion
Project variance is computed byProject variance is computed by
summing the variances of criticalsumming the variances of critical
activitiesactivities
σ2
= Project variance
= ∑(variances of activities
on critical path)
p
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 80
Probability of ProjectProbability of Project
CompletionCompletion
Project variance is computed byProject variance is computed by
summing the variances of criticalsumming the variances of critical
activitiesactivitiesProject variance
σ2
= .11 + .11 + 1.00 + 1.78 + .11 = 3.11
Project standard deviation
σp = Project variance
= 3.11 = 1.76 weeks
p
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 81
Probability of ProjectProbability of Project
CompletionCompletion
PERT makes two more assumptions:PERT makes two more assumptions:
 Total project completion times follow a
normal probability distribution
 Activity times are statistically
independent
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 82
Probability of ProjectProbability of Project
CompletionCompletion
Standard deviation = 1.76 weeks
15 Weeks
(Expected Completion Time)
Figure 3.13
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 83
Probability of ProjectProbability of Project
CompletionCompletion
What is the probability this project canWhat is the probability this project can
be completed on or before the 16 weekbe completed on or before the 16 week
deadline?deadline?
Z= – /σp
= (16 wks – 15 wks)/1.76
= 0.57
due expected date
date of completion
Where Z is the number of
standard deviations the due
date or target date lies from
the mean or expected date
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 84
Probability of ProjectProbability of Project
CompletionCompletion
What is the probability this project canWhat is the probability this project can
be completed on or before the 16 weekbe completed on or before the 16 week
deadline?deadline?
Z= − /σp
= (16 wks − 15 wks)/1.76
= 0.57
due expected date
date of completion
Where Z is the number of
standard deviations the due
date or target date lies from
the mean or expected date
.00 .01 .07 .08
.1 .50000 .50399 .52790 .53188
.2 .53983 .54380 .56749 .57142
.5 .69146 .69497 .71566 .71904
.6 .72575 .72907 .74857 .75175
From Appendix I
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 85
Probability of ProjectProbability of Project
CompletionCompletion
Time
Probability
(T ≤ 16 weeks)
is 71.57%
Figure 3.14
0.57 Standard deviations
15 16
Weeks Weeks
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 86
Determining ProjectDetermining Project
Completion TimeCompletion Time
Probability
of 0.01
Z
Figure 3.15
From Appendix I
Probability
of 0.99
2.33 Standard
deviations
0 2.33
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 87
Variability of CompletionVariability of Completion
Time for Noncritical PathsTime for Noncritical Paths
 Variability of times for activities
on noncritical paths must be
considered when finding the
probability of finishing in a
specified time
 Variation in noncritical activity
may cause change in critical path
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 88
What Project ManagementWhat Project Management
Has Provided So FarHas Provided So Far
1. The project’s expected completion time
is 15 weeks
2. There is a 71.57% chance the equipment
will be in place by the 16 week deadline
3. Five activities (A, C, E, G, and H) are on
the critical path
4. Three activities (B, D, F) are not on the
critical path and have slack time
5. A detailed schedule is available
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 89
Trade-Offs and ProjectTrade-Offs and Project
CrashingCrashing
 The project is behind schedule
 The completion time has been
moved forward
It is not uncommon to face theIt is not uncommon to face the
following situations:following situations:
Shortening the duration of the
project is called project crashing
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 90
Factors to Consider WhenFactors to Consider When
Crashing a ProjectCrashing a Project
 The amount by which an activity is
crashed is, in fact, permissible
 Taken together, the shortened
activity durations will enable us to
finish the project by the due date
 The total cost of crashing is as
small as possible
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 91
Steps in Project CrashingSteps in Project Crashing
1. Compute the crash cost per time period.
If crash costs are linear over time:
Crash cost
per period =
(Crash cost – Normal cost)
(Normal time – Crash time)
2. Using current activity times, find the
critical path and identify the critical
activities
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 92
Steps in Project CrashingSteps in Project Crashing
3. If there is only one critical path, then
select the activity on this critical path
that (a) can still be crashed, and (b) has
the smallest crash cost per period. If
there is more than one critical path, then
select one activity from each critical path
such that (a) each selected activity can
still be crashed, and (b) the total crash
cost of all selected activities is the
smallest. Note that the same activity may
be common to more than one critical
path.
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 93
Steps in Project CrashingSteps in Project Crashing
4. Update all activity times. If the desired
due date has been reached, stop. If not,
return to Step 2.
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 94
Crashing The ProjectCrashing The Project
Table 3.5
Time (Wks) Cost ($)
Crash Cost Critical
Activity Normal Crash Normal Crash Per Wk ($) Path?
A 2 1 22,000 22,750 750 Yes
B 3 1 30,000 34,000 2,000 No
C 2 1 26,000 27,000 1,000 Yes
D 4 2 48,000 49,000 1,000 No
E 4 2 56,000 58,000 1,000 Yes
F 3 2 30,000 30,500 500 No
G 5 2 80,000 84,500 1,500 Yes
H 2 1 16,000 19,000 3,000 Yes
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 95
Crash and Normal TimesCrash and Normal Times
and Costs for Activity Band Costs for Activity B
| | |
1 2 3 Time (Weeks)
$34,000 —
$33,000 —
$32,000 —
$31,000 —
$30,000 —
—
Activity
Cost
Crash
Normal
Crash Time Normal Time
Crash
Cost
Normal
Cost
Crash Cost/Wk =
Crash Cost – Normal Cost
Normal Time – Crash Time
=
$34,000 – $30,000
3 – 1
= = $2,000/Wk
$4,000
2 Wks
Figure 3.16
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 96
Critical Path and Slack TimesCritical Path and Slack Times
for Milwaukee Paperfor Milwaukee Paper
Figure 3.17
E
4
F
3
G
5
H
2
4 8 13 15
4
8 13
7
13 15
10 13
8 13
4 8
D
4
3 7
C
2
2 4
B
3
0 3
Start
0
0
0
A
2
20
42
84
20
41
00
Slack = 1 Slack = 1
Slack = 0 Slack = 6
Slack = 0
Slack = 0
Slack = 0
Slack = 0
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 97
Advantages of PERT/CPMAdvantages of PERT/CPM
1. Especially useful when scheduling and
controlling large projects
2. Straightforward concept and not
mathematically complex
3. Graphical networks help highlight
relationships among project activities
4. Critical path and slack time analyses help
pinpoint activities that need to be closely
watched
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 98
Advantages of PERT/CPMAdvantages of PERT/CPM
5. Project documentation and graphics
point out who is responsible for various
activities
6. Applicable to a wide variety of projects
7. Useful in monitoring not only schedules
but costs as well
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 99
1. Project activities have to be clearly
defined, independent, and stable in their
relationships
2. Precedence relationships must be
specified and networked together
3. Time estimates tend to be subjective and
are subject to fudging by managers
4. There is an inherent danger of too much
emphasis being placed on the longest, or
critical, path
Limitations of PERT/CPMLimitations of PERT/CPM
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 100
Project Management SoftwareProject Management Software
 There are several popular packages
for managing projects
 Primavera
 MacProject
 Pertmaster
 VisiSchedule
 Time Line
 Microsoft Project
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 101
Using Microsoft ProjectUsing Microsoft Project
Program 3.1
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 102
Using Microsoft ProjectUsing Microsoft Project
Program 3.2
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 103
Using Microsoft ProjectUsing Microsoft Project
Program 3.3
© 2011 Pearson
3 - 104
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval
system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher.
Printed in the United States of America.

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360_ch03

  • 1. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 1 3 Project Management PowerPoint presentation to accompanyPowerPoint presentation to accompany Heizer and RenderHeizer and Render Operations Management, 10eOperations Management, 10e Principles of Operations Management, 8ePrinciples of Operations Management, 8e PowerPoint slides by Jeff Heyl
  • 2. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 2 OutlineOutline  Global Company Profile: Bechtel Group  The Importance of Project Management  Project Planning  The Project Manager  Work Breakdown Structure  Project Scheduling
  • 3. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 3 Outline - ContinuedOutline - Continued  Project Controlling  Project Management Techniques: PERT and CPM  The Framework of PERT and CPM  Network Diagrams and Approaches  Activity-on-Node Example  Activity-on-Arrow Example
  • 4. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 4 Outline - ContinuedOutline - Continued  Determining the Project Schedule  Forward Pass  Backward Pass  Calculating Slack Time and Identifying the Critical Path(s)  Variability in Activity Times  Three Time Estimates in PERT  Probability of Project Completion
  • 5. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 5 Outline - ContinuedOutline - Continued  Cost-Time Trade-Offs and Project Crashing  A Critique of PERT and CPM  Using Microsoft Project to Manage Projects
  • 6. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 6 Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives 1. Use a Gantt chart for scheduling 2. Draw AOA and AON networks 3. Complete forward and backward passes for a project 4. Determine a critical path When you complete this chapter youWhen you complete this chapter you should be able to:should be able to:
  • 7. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 7 Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives 5. Calculate the variance of activity times 6. Crash a project When you complete this chapter youWhen you complete this chapter you should be able to:should be able to:
  • 8. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 8 Bechtel ProjectsBechtel Projects  Building 26 massive distribution centers in just two years for the internet company Webvan Group ($1 billion)  Constructing 30 high-security data centers worldwide for Equinix, Inc. ($1.2 billion)  Building and running a rail line between London and the Channel Tunnel ($4.6 billion)  Developing an oil pipeline from the Caspian Sea region to Russia ($850 million)  Expanding the Dubai Airport in the UAE ($600 million), and the Miami Airport in Florida ($2 billion)
  • 9. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 9 Bechtel ProjectsBechtel Projects  Building liquid natural gas plants in Yemen $2 billion) and in Trinidad, West Indies ($1 billion)  Building a new subway for Athens, Greece ($2.6 billion)  Constructing a natural gas pipeline in Thailand ($700 million)  Building 30 plants for iMotors.com, a company that sells refurbished autos online ($300 million)  Building a highway to link the north and south of Croatia ($303 million)
  • 10. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 10 Strategic Importance ofStrategic Importance of Project ManagementProject Management  Bechtel Project Management:  Iraq war aftermath  International workforce, construction professionals, cooks, medical personnel, security  Millions of tons of supplies  Hard Rock Cafe Rockfest Project:  100,000 + fans  planning began 9 months in advance
  • 11. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 11  Single unit  Many related activities  Difficult production planning and inventory control  General purpose equipment  High labor skills Project CharacteristicsProject Characteristics
  • 12. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 12 Examples of ProjectsExamples of Projects  Building Construction  Research Project
  • 13. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 13 Management of ProjectsManagement of Projects 1. Planning - goal setting, defining the project, team organization 2. Scheduling - relates people, money, and supplies to specific activities and activities to each other 3. Controlling - monitors resources, costs, quality, and budgets; revises plans and shifts resources to meet time and cost demands
  • 14. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 14  Planning Objectives Resources Work break-down structure Organization Scheduling Project activities Start & end times Network Controlling Monitor, compare, revise, action Project ManagementProject Management ActivitiesActivities
  • 15. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 15 Project Planning,Project Planning, Scheduling, and ControllingScheduling, and Controlling Figure 3.1 Before Start of project During project Timeline project
  • 16. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 16 Project Planning,Project Planning, Scheduling, and ControllingScheduling, and Controlling Figure 3.1 Before Start of project During project Timeline project
  • 17. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 17 Project Planning,Project Planning, Scheduling, and ControllingScheduling, and Controlling Figure 3.1 Before Start of project During project Timeline project
  • 18. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 18 Project Planning,Project Planning, Scheduling, and ControllingScheduling, and Controlling Figure 3.1 Before Start of project During project Timeline project
  • 19. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 19 Project Planning,Project Planning, Scheduling, and ControllingScheduling, and Controlling Figure 3.1 Before Start of project During project Timeline project Budgets Delayed activities report Slack activities report Time/cost estimates Budgets Engineering diagrams Cash flow charts Material availability details CPM/PERT Gantt charts Milestone charts Cash flow schedules
  • 20. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 20  Establishing objectives  Defining project  Creating work breakdown structure  Determining resources  Forming organization Project PlanningProject Planning
  • 21. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 21  Often temporary structure  Uses specialists from entire company  Headed by project manager  Coordinates activities  Monitors schedule and costs  Permanent structure called ‘matrix organization’ Project OrganizationProject Organization
  • 22. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 22 Project OrganizationProject Organization Works Best WhenWorks Best When 1. Work can be defined with a specific goal and deadline 2. The job is unique or somewhat unfamiliar to the existing organization 3. The work contains complex interrelated tasks requiring specialized skills 4. The project is temporary but critical to the organization 5. The project cuts across organizational lines
  • 23. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 23 A Sample ProjectA Sample Project OrganizationOrganization Test Engineer Mechanical Engineer Project 1 Project Manager Technician Technician Project 2 Project Manager Electrical Engineer Computer Engineer Marketing Finance Human Resources Design Quality Mgt Production President Figure 3.2
  • 24. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 24 Matrix OrganizationMatrix Organization Marketing Operations Engineering Finance Project 1 Project 2 Project 3 Project 4
  • 25. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 25 The Role ofThe Role of the Project Managerthe Project Manager Highly visibleHighly visible Responsible for making sure that:Responsible for making sure that: 1. All necessary activities are finished in order and on time 2. The project comes in within budget 3. The project meets quality goals 4. The people assigned to the project receive motivation, direction, and information
  • 26. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 26 The Role ofThe Role of the Project Managerthe Project Manager Highly visibleHighly visible Responsible for making sure that:Responsible for making sure that: 1. All necessary activities are finished in order and on time 2. The project comes in within budget 3. The project meets quality goals 4. The people assigned to the project receive motivation, direction, and information Project managers should be:  Good coaches  Good communicators  Able to organize activities from a variety of disciplines
  • 27. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 27 Ethical IssuesEthical Issues 1. Offers of gifts from contractors 2. Pressure to alter status reports to mask delays 3. False reports for charges of time and expenses 4. Pressure to compromise quality to meet schedules  Project managers face many ethical decisions on a daily basis  The Project Management Institute has established an ethical code to deal with problems such as:
  • 28. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 28 Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure Level 1. Project 2. Major tasks in the project 3. Subtasks in the major tasks 4. Activities (or work packages) to be completed
  • 29. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 29 Level 4 Compatible with Windows ME Compatible with Windows Vista Compatible with Windows XP 1.1.2.3 1.1.2.2 1.1.2.1 (Work packages) Level 3 Develop GUIs Planning Module Testing Ensure Compatibility with Earlier Versions Cost/Schedule Management Defect Testing 1.1.1 1.2.2 1.3.2 1.3.11.2.1 1.1.2 Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure Figure 3.3 Level 2 Software Design Project Management System Testing1.1 1.2 1.3 Level 1 Develop Windows 7 Operating System 1.0
  • 30. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 30 Project SchedulingProject Scheduling  Identifying precedence relationships  Sequencing activities  Determining activity times & costs  Estimating material & worker requirements  Determining critical activities
  • 31. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 31 Purposes of ProjectPurposes of Project SchedulingScheduling 1. Shows the relationship of each activity to others and to the whole project 2. Identifies the precedence relationships among activities 3. Encourages the setting of realistic time and cost estimates for each activity 4. Helps make better use of people, money, and material resources by identifying critical bottlenecks in the project
  • 32. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 32 Scheduling TechniquesScheduling Techniques 1. Ensure that all activities are planned for 2. Their order of performance is accounted for 3. The activity time estimates are recorded 4. The overall project time is developed
  • 33. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 33  Gantt chart  Critical Path Method (CPM)  Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) Project ManagementProject Management TechniquesTechniques
  • 34. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 34 A Simple Gantt ChartA Simple Gantt Chart Time J F M A M J J A S Design Prototype Test Revise Production
  • 35. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 35 Service For a Delta JetService For a Delta Jet Figure 3.4 Passengers Baggage Fueling Cargo and mail Galley servicing Lavatory servicing Drinking water Cabin cleaning Cargo and mail Flight services Operating crew Baggage Passengers Deplaning Baggage claim Container offload Pumping Engine injection water Container offload Main cabin door Aft cabin door Aft, center, forward Loading First-class section Economy section Container/bulk loading Galley/cabin check Receive passengers Aircraft check Loading Boarding 0 10 20 30 40 Time, Minutes
  • 36. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 36 Project Control ReportsProject Control Reports  Detailed cost breakdowns for each task  Total program labor curves  Cost distribution tables  Functional cost and hour summaries  Raw materials and expenditure forecasts  Variance reports  Time analysis reports  Work status reports
  • 37. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 37  Network techniques  Developed in 1950’s  CPM by DuPont for chemical plants (1957)  PERT by Booz, Allen & Hamilton with the U.S. Navy, for Polaris missile (1958)  Consider precedence relationships and interdependencies  Each uses a different estimate of activity times PERT and CPMPERT and CPM
  • 38. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 38 Six Steps PERT & CPMSix Steps PERT & CPM 1. Define the project and prepare the work breakdown structure 2. Develop relationships among the activities - decide which activities must precede and which must follow others 3. Draw the network connecting all of the activities
  • 39. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 39 Six Steps PERT & CPMSix Steps PERT & CPM 4. Assign time and/or cost estimates to each activity 5. Compute the longest time path through the network – this is called the critical path 6. Use the network to help plan, schedule, monitor, and control the project
  • 40. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 40 1. When will the entire project be completed? 2. What are the critical activities or tasks in the project? 3. Which are the noncritical activities? 4. What is the probability the project will be completed by a specific date? Questions PERT & CPMQuestions PERT & CPM Can AnswerCan Answer
  • 41. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 41 5. Is the project on schedule, behind schedule, or ahead of schedule? 6. Is the money spent equal to, less than, or greater than the budget? 7. Are there enough resources available to finish the project on time? 8. If the project must be finished in a shorter time, what is the way to accomplish this at least cost? Questions PERT & CPMQuestions PERT & CPM Can AnswerCan Answer
  • 42. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 42 A Comparison of AON andA Comparison of AON and AOA Network ConventionsAOA Network Conventions Activity on Activity Activity on Node (AON) Meaning Arrow (AOA) A comes before B, which comes before C. (a) A B C BA C A and B must both be completed before C can start. (b) A C C B A B B and C cannot begin until A is completed. (c) B A C A B C Figure 3.5
  • 43. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 43 A Comparison of AON andA Comparison of AON and AOA Network ConventionsAOA Network Conventions Activity on Activity Activity on Node (AON) Meaning Arrow (AOA) C and D cannot begin until both A and B are completed. (d) A B C D B A C D C cannot begin until both A and B are completed; D cannot begin until B is completed. A dummy activity is introduced in AOA. (e) CA B D Dummy activity A B C D Figure 3.5
  • 44. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 44 A Comparison of AON andA Comparison of AON and AOA Network ConventionsAOA Network Conventions Activity on Activity Activity on Node (AON) Meaning Arrow (AOA) B and C cannot begin until A is completed. D cannot begin until both B and C are completed. A dummy activity is again introduced in AOA. (f) A C DB A B C D Dummy activity Figure 3.5
  • 45. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 45 AON ExampleAON Example Activity Description Immediate Predecessors A Build internal components — B Modify roof and floor — C Construct collection stack A D Pour concrete and install frame A, B E Build high-temperature burner C F Install pollution control system C G Install air pollution device D, E H Inspect and test F, G Milwaukee Paper Manufacturing'sMilwaukee Paper Manufacturing's Activities and PredecessorsActivities and Predecessors Table 3.1
  • 46. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 46 AON Network forAON Network for Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper A Start BStart Activity Activity A (Build Internal Components) Activity B (Modify Roof and Floor) Figure 3.6
  • 47. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 47 AON Network forAON Network for Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper Figure 3.7 C D A Start B Activity A Precedes Activity C Activities A and B Precede Activity D
  • 48. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 48 AON Network forAON Network for Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper G E F H CA Start DB Arrows Show Precedence Relationships Figure 3.8
  • 49. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 49 H (Inspect/ Test) 7Dummy Activity AOA Network forAOA Network for Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper 6 F(Install Controls) E (BuildBurner) G (Install Pollution Device) 5 D (Pour Concrete/ Install Frame) 4 C (Construct Stack) 1 3 2 B(M odify Roof/Floor) A (B uild Internal C om ponents) Figure 3.9
  • 50. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 50 Determining the ProjectDetermining the Project ScheduleSchedule Perform a Critical Path AnalysisPerform a Critical Path Analysis  The critical path is the longest path through the network  The critical path is the shortest time in which the project can be completed  Any delay in critical path activities delays the project  Critical path activities have no slack time
  • 51. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 51 Determining the ProjectDetermining the Project ScheduleSchedule Perform a Critical Path AnalysisPerform a Critical Path Analysis Table 3.2 Activity Description Time (weeks) A Build internal components 2 B Modify roof and floor 3 C Construct collection stack 2 D Pour concrete and install frame 4 E Build high-temperature burner 4 F Install pollution control system 3 G Install air pollution device 5 H Inspect and test 2 Total Time (weeks) 25
  • 52. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 52 Determining the ProjectDetermining the Project ScheduleSchedule Perform a Critical Path AnalysisPerform a Critical Path Analysis Table 3.2 Activity Description Time (weeks) A Build internal components 2 B Modify roof and floor 3 C Construct collection stack 2 D Pour concrete and install frame 4 E Build high-temperature burner 4 F Install pollution control system 3 G Install air pollution device 5 H Inspect and test 2 Total Time (weeks) 25 Earliest start (ES) = earliest time at which an activity can start, assuming all predecessors have been completed Earliest finish (EF) = earliest time at which an activity can be finished Latest start (LS) = latest time at which an activity can start so as to not delay the completion time of the entire project Latest finish (LF) = latest time by which an activity has to be finished so as to not delay the completion time of the entire project
  • 53. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 53 Determining the ProjectDetermining the Project ScheduleSchedule Perform a Critical Path AnalysisPerform a Critical Path Analysis Figure 3.10 A Activity Name or Symbol Earliest Start ES Earliest FinishEF Latest Start LS Latest Finish LF Activity Duration 2
  • 54. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 54 Forward PassForward Pass Begin at starting event and work forwardBegin at starting event and work forward Earliest Start Time Rule:  If an activity has only a single immediate predecessor, its ES equals the EF of the predecessor  If an activity has multiple immediate predecessors, its ES is the maximum of all the EF values of its predecessors ES = Max {EF of all immediate predecessors}
  • 55. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 55 Forward PassForward Pass Begin at starting event and work forwardBegin at starting event and work forward Earliest Finish Time Rule:  The earliest finish time (EF) of an activity is the sum of its earliest start time (ES) and its activity time EF = ES + Activity time
  • 56. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 56 ES/EF Network forES/EF Network for Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper Start 0 0 ES 0 EF = ES + Activity time
  • 57. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 57 ES/EF Network forES/EF Network for Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper Start 0 0 0 A 2 2 EF of A = ES of A + 2 0 ES of A
  • 58. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 58 B 3 ES/EF Network forES/EF Network for Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper Start 0 0 0 A 2 20 3 EF of B = ES of B + 3 0 ES of B
  • 59. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 59 C 2 2 4 ES/EF Network forES/EF Network for Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper B 3 0 3 Start 0 0 0 A 2 20
  • 60. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 60 C 2 2 4 ES/EF Network forES/EF Network for Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper B 3 0 3 Start 0 0 0 A 2 20 D 4 73 = Max (2, 3)
  • 61. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 61 D 4 3 7 C 2 2 4 ES/EF Network forES/EF Network for Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper B 3 0 3 Start 0 0 0 A 2 20
  • 62. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 62 E 4 F 3 G 5 H 2 4 8 13 15 4 8 13 7 D 4 3 7 C 2 2 4 ES/EF Network forES/EF Network for Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper B 3 0 3 Start 0 0 0 A 2 20 Figure 3.11
  • 63. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 63 Backward PassBackward Pass Begin with the last event and work backwardsBegin with the last event and work backwards Latest Finish Time Rule:  If an activity is an immediate predecessor for just a single activity, its LF equals the LS of the activity that immediately follows it  If an activity is an immediate predecessor to more than one activity, its LF is the minimum of all LS values of all activities that immediately follow it LF = Min {LS of all immediate following activities}
  • 64. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 64 Backward PassBackward Pass Begin with the last event and work backwardsBegin with the last event and work backwards Latest Start Time Rule:  The latest start time (LS) of an activity is the difference of its latest finish time (LF) and its activity time LS = LF – Activity time
  • 65. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 65 LS/LF Times forLS/LF Times for Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper E 4 F 3 G 5 H 2 4 8 13 15 4 8 13 7 D 4 3 7 C 2 2 4 B 3 0 3 Start 0 0 0 A 2 20 LF = EF of Project 1513 LS = LF – Activity time
  • 66. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 66 LS/LF Times forLS/LF Times for Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper E 4 F 3 G 5 H 2 4 8 13 15 4 8 13 7 13 15 D 4 3 7 C 2 2 4 B 3 0 3 Start 0 0 0 A 2 20 LF = Min(LS of following activity) 10 13
  • 67. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 67 LS/LF Times forLS/LF Times for Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper E 4 F 3 G 5 H 2 4 8 13 15 4 8 13 7 13 15 10 13 8 13 4 8 D 4 3 7 C 2 2 4 B 3 0 3 Start 0 0 0 A 2 20 LF = Min(4, 10) 42
  • 68. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 68 LS/LF Times forLS/LF Times for Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper E 4 F 3 G 5 H 2 4 8 13 15 4 8 13 7 13 15 10 13 8 13 4 8 D 4 3 7 C 2 2 4 B 3 0 3 Start 0 0 0 A 2 20 42 84 20 41 00
  • 69. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 69 Computing Slack TimeComputing Slack Time After computing the ES, EF, LS, and LF times for all activities, compute the slack or free time for each activity  Slack is the length of time an activity can be delayed without delaying the entire project Slack = LS – ES or Slack = LF – EF
  • 70. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 70 Computing Slack TimeComputing Slack Time Table 3.3 Earliest Earliest Latest Latest On Start Finish Start Finish Slack Critical Activity ES EF LS LF LS – ES Path A 0 2 0 2 0 Yes B 0 3 1 4 1 No C 2 4 2 4 0 Yes D 3 7 4 8 1 No E 4 8 4 8 0 Yes F 4 7 10 13 6 No G 8 13 8 13 0 Yes H 13 15 13 15 0 Yes
  • 71. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 71 Critical Path forCritical Path for Milwaukee PaperMilwaukee Paper E 4 F 3 G 5 H 2 4 8 13 15 4 8 13 7 13 15 10 13 8 13 4 8 D 4 3 7 C 2 2 4 B 3 0 3 Start 0 0 0 A 2 20 42 84 20 41 00
  • 72. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 72 ES – EF Gantt ChartES – EF Gantt Chart for Milwaukee Paperfor Milwaukee Paper A Build internal components B Modify roof and floor C Construct collection stack D Pour concrete and install frame E Build high- temperature burner F Install pollution control system G Install air pollution device H Inspect and test 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
  • 73. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 73 LS – LF Gantt ChartLS – LF Gantt Chart for Milwaukee Paperfor Milwaukee Paper A Build internal components B Modify roof and floor C Construct collection stack D Pour concrete and install frame E Build high- temperature burner F Install pollution control system G Install air pollution device H Inspect and test 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
  • 74. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 74  CPM assumes we know a fixed time estimate for each activity and there is no variability in activity times  PERT uses a probability distribution for activity times to allow for variability Variability in Activity TimesVariability in Activity Times
  • 75. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 75  Three time estimates are required  Optimistic time (a) – if everything goes according to plan  Pessimistic time (b) – assuming very unfavorable conditions  Most likely time (m) – most realistic estimate Variability in Activity TimesVariability in Activity Times
  • 76. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 76 Estimate follows beta distributionEstimate follows beta distribution Variability in Activity TimesVariability in Activity Times Expected time: Variance of times: t = (a + 4m + b)/6 v = [(b – a)/6]2
  • 77. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 77 Estimate follows beta distributionEstimate follows beta distribution Variability in Activity TimesVariability in Activity Times Expected time:Expected time: Variance of times:Variance of times: t =t = ((a +a + 44mm ++ bb)/6)/6 v =v = [([(bb −− aa)/6]2)/6]2 Probability of 1 in 100 of > b occurring Probability of 1 in 100 of < a occurring Probability Optimistic Time (a) Most Likely Time (m) Pessimistic Time (b) Activity Time Figure 3.12
  • 78. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 78 Computing VarianceComputing Variance Table 3.4 Most Expected Optimistic Likely Pessimistic Time Variance Activity a m b t = (a + 4m + b)/6 [(b – a)/6]2 A 1 2 3 2 .11 B 2 3 4 3 .11 C 1 2 3 2 .11 D 2 4 6 4 .44 E 1 4 7 4 1.00 F 1 2 9 3 1.78 G 3 4 11 5 1.78 H 1 2 3 2 .11
  • 79. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 79 Probability of ProjectProbability of Project CompletionCompletion Project variance is computed byProject variance is computed by summing the variances of criticalsumming the variances of critical activitiesactivities σ2 = Project variance = ∑(variances of activities on critical path) p
  • 80. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 80 Probability of ProjectProbability of Project CompletionCompletion Project variance is computed byProject variance is computed by summing the variances of criticalsumming the variances of critical activitiesactivitiesProject variance σ2 = .11 + .11 + 1.00 + 1.78 + .11 = 3.11 Project standard deviation σp = Project variance = 3.11 = 1.76 weeks p
  • 81. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 81 Probability of ProjectProbability of Project CompletionCompletion PERT makes two more assumptions:PERT makes two more assumptions:  Total project completion times follow a normal probability distribution  Activity times are statistically independent
  • 82. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 82 Probability of ProjectProbability of Project CompletionCompletion Standard deviation = 1.76 weeks 15 Weeks (Expected Completion Time) Figure 3.13
  • 83. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 83 Probability of ProjectProbability of Project CompletionCompletion What is the probability this project canWhat is the probability this project can be completed on or before the 16 weekbe completed on or before the 16 week deadline?deadline? Z= – /σp = (16 wks – 15 wks)/1.76 = 0.57 due expected date date of completion Where Z is the number of standard deviations the due date or target date lies from the mean or expected date
  • 84. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 84 Probability of ProjectProbability of Project CompletionCompletion What is the probability this project canWhat is the probability this project can be completed on or before the 16 weekbe completed on or before the 16 week deadline?deadline? Z= − /σp = (16 wks − 15 wks)/1.76 = 0.57 due expected date date of completion Where Z is the number of standard deviations the due date or target date lies from the mean or expected date .00 .01 .07 .08 .1 .50000 .50399 .52790 .53188 .2 .53983 .54380 .56749 .57142 .5 .69146 .69497 .71566 .71904 .6 .72575 .72907 .74857 .75175 From Appendix I
  • 85. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 85 Probability of ProjectProbability of Project CompletionCompletion Time Probability (T ≤ 16 weeks) is 71.57% Figure 3.14 0.57 Standard deviations 15 16 Weeks Weeks
  • 86. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 86 Determining ProjectDetermining Project Completion TimeCompletion Time Probability of 0.01 Z Figure 3.15 From Appendix I Probability of 0.99 2.33 Standard deviations 0 2.33
  • 87. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 87 Variability of CompletionVariability of Completion Time for Noncritical PathsTime for Noncritical Paths  Variability of times for activities on noncritical paths must be considered when finding the probability of finishing in a specified time  Variation in noncritical activity may cause change in critical path
  • 88. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 88 What Project ManagementWhat Project Management Has Provided So FarHas Provided So Far 1. The project’s expected completion time is 15 weeks 2. There is a 71.57% chance the equipment will be in place by the 16 week deadline 3. Five activities (A, C, E, G, and H) are on the critical path 4. Three activities (B, D, F) are not on the critical path and have slack time 5. A detailed schedule is available
  • 89. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 89 Trade-Offs and ProjectTrade-Offs and Project CrashingCrashing  The project is behind schedule  The completion time has been moved forward It is not uncommon to face theIt is not uncommon to face the following situations:following situations: Shortening the duration of the project is called project crashing
  • 90. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 90 Factors to Consider WhenFactors to Consider When Crashing a ProjectCrashing a Project  The amount by which an activity is crashed is, in fact, permissible  Taken together, the shortened activity durations will enable us to finish the project by the due date  The total cost of crashing is as small as possible
  • 91. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 91 Steps in Project CrashingSteps in Project Crashing 1. Compute the crash cost per time period. If crash costs are linear over time: Crash cost per period = (Crash cost – Normal cost) (Normal time – Crash time) 2. Using current activity times, find the critical path and identify the critical activities
  • 92. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 92 Steps in Project CrashingSteps in Project Crashing 3. If there is only one critical path, then select the activity on this critical path that (a) can still be crashed, and (b) has the smallest crash cost per period. If there is more than one critical path, then select one activity from each critical path such that (a) each selected activity can still be crashed, and (b) the total crash cost of all selected activities is the smallest. Note that the same activity may be common to more than one critical path.
  • 93. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 93 Steps in Project CrashingSteps in Project Crashing 4. Update all activity times. If the desired due date has been reached, stop. If not, return to Step 2.
  • 94. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 94 Crashing The ProjectCrashing The Project Table 3.5 Time (Wks) Cost ($) Crash Cost Critical Activity Normal Crash Normal Crash Per Wk ($) Path? A 2 1 22,000 22,750 750 Yes B 3 1 30,000 34,000 2,000 No C 2 1 26,000 27,000 1,000 Yes D 4 2 48,000 49,000 1,000 No E 4 2 56,000 58,000 1,000 Yes F 3 2 30,000 30,500 500 No G 5 2 80,000 84,500 1,500 Yes H 2 1 16,000 19,000 3,000 Yes
  • 95. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 95 Crash and Normal TimesCrash and Normal Times and Costs for Activity Band Costs for Activity B | | | 1 2 3 Time (Weeks) $34,000 — $33,000 — $32,000 — $31,000 — $30,000 — — Activity Cost Crash Normal Crash Time Normal Time Crash Cost Normal Cost Crash Cost/Wk = Crash Cost – Normal Cost Normal Time – Crash Time = $34,000 – $30,000 3 – 1 = = $2,000/Wk $4,000 2 Wks Figure 3.16
  • 96. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 96 Critical Path and Slack TimesCritical Path and Slack Times for Milwaukee Paperfor Milwaukee Paper Figure 3.17 E 4 F 3 G 5 H 2 4 8 13 15 4 8 13 7 13 15 10 13 8 13 4 8 D 4 3 7 C 2 2 4 B 3 0 3 Start 0 0 0 A 2 20 42 84 20 41 00 Slack = 1 Slack = 1 Slack = 0 Slack = 6 Slack = 0 Slack = 0 Slack = 0 Slack = 0
  • 97. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 97 Advantages of PERT/CPMAdvantages of PERT/CPM 1. Especially useful when scheduling and controlling large projects 2. Straightforward concept and not mathematically complex 3. Graphical networks help highlight relationships among project activities 4. Critical path and slack time analyses help pinpoint activities that need to be closely watched
  • 98. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 98 Advantages of PERT/CPMAdvantages of PERT/CPM 5. Project documentation and graphics point out who is responsible for various activities 6. Applicable to a wide variety of projects 7. Useful in monitoring not only schedules but costs as well
  • 99. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 99 1. Project activities have to be clearly defined, independent, and stable in their relationships 2. Precedence relationships must be specified and networked together 3. Time estimates tend to be subjective and are subject to fudging by managers 4. There is an inherent danger of too much emphasis being placed on the longest, or critical, path Limitations of PERT/CPMLimitations of PERT/CPM
  • 100. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 100 Project Management SoftwareProject Management Software  There are several popular packages for managing projects  Primavera  MacProject  Pertmaster  VisiSchedule  Time Line  Microsoft Project
  • 101. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 101 Using Microsoft ProjectUsing Microsoft Project Program 3.1
  • 102. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 102 Using Microsoft ProjectUsing Microsoft Project Program 3.2
  • 103. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 103 Using Microsoft ProjectUsing Microsoft Project Program 3.3
  • 104. © 2011 Pearson 3 - 104 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher. Printed in the United States of America.