This document summarizes the key points from a presentation on living within planetary boundaries in the Anthropocene. It discusses how 9 key planetary boundaries related to issues like climate change, biodiversity loss, and the nitrogen cycle have been crossed. The impacts of rising temperatures, including threats to the Sustainable Development Goals, are presented. The risks of passing a tipping point that could lock in a "Hothouse Earth" are raised. The document calls for a transformation to planetary stewardship and a "Stabilized Earth" through urgent climate action, sustainability policies, and green technologies and financing.
20200217 lezing jones_welkom in het antropoceen_knooppunt_kortrijk
1. Welkom in het Antropoceen:
(over)leven binnen planetaire grenzen
Dr. Ir. Peter Tom Jones (SIM² KU Leuven), Kortrijk, 17-02-2020
Jones-KULeuven18/02/2020
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2. “… Scientists have a moral
obligation to clearly warn
humanity of any catastrophic
threat and to “tell it like it is.”
(…), we declare, with more
than 11,000 scientist
signatories from around the
world, clearly and
unequivocally that planet
Earth is facing a climate
emergency.”
(W. Ripple et al., BioScience, 2019)
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3. “…the consideration of tipping
points helps to define that we
are in a climate emergency
and strengthens this year’s
chorus of calls for urgent
climate action — from
schoolchildren to scientists,
cities and countries.”
(Lenton et al., Nature, 28-11-2019)
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“This is a disastrous, profoundly distressing outcome – the worst I have ever seen. At a time when
scientists are queuing up to warn about terrifying consequences if emissions keep rising, and
schoolchildren taking to the streets in their millions, what we have here in Madrid is a betrayal of
people across the world. It is disgraceful and governments are simply not doing their job of
protecting the planet.” (M. Adow, Director Power Shift Africa)
COP25,
December,
Madrid
Photograph: Nacho Doce/Reuters
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“This is a disastrous, profoundly distressing outcome (…) At a time when scientists are queuing up
to warn about terrifying consequences if emissions keep rising, and schoolchildren taking to the
streets in their millions, what we have here in Madrid is a betrayal of people across the world. It is
disgraceful and governments are simply not doing their job of protecting the planet.” (M. Adow,
Director Power Shift Africa)
Photograph: Nacho Doce/Reuters
COP25,
December,
Madrid
7. “The scientific evidence is clearer day by
day [with respect to] how quickly and
disastrous the consequences of
unrestrained climate change are
affecting us. (…) I am just reporting
what is actually happening. It is urgent,
it is essential; it is undeniable that we
need to take action. The risks will only
increase, as the earth gets hotter and the
climate gets more disturbed.”
(28-1-2020)
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8. “The scientific evidence is clearer day by
day [with respect to] how quickly and
disastrous the consequences of
unrestrained climate change are
affecting us. (…) I am just reporting
what is actually happening. It is urgent,
it is essential; it is undeniable that we
need to take action. The risks will only
increase, as the earth gets hotter and the
climate gets more disturbed.”
(28-1-2020)
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Frans Timmermans
(Executive Vice President Timmermans,
European Green Deal, Conference first
European Climate Law, 28-1-2020)
9. Cleantech wordt steeds goedkoper
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Emissions Gap
Report, 2019
(UNEP)
11. We leven niet in een
“tijdperk van
verandering” dan wel in
een “verandering van
[geologisch] tijdperk”
Cf. Jan Rotmans, Verandering van tijdperk, 2014
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14. Planetaire grenzen worden doorboord
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Source:
Adaptation of Steffen et al.,
Science, 2015 - Update from
Rockström et al, Nature, 2009
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15. Planetaire grenzen worden doorboord
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Source:
Adaptation of Steffen et al.,
Science, 2015 - Update from
Rockström et al, Nature, 2009
9 (onderling afhankelijke) planetaire
grenzen
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16. 25% van de wereldbevolking lijdt aan
waterstress
Source: WRI, 2019
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17. België (lees: Vlaanderen) staat op nr.
23 in de waterstress-rangorde
Source: WRI, 2019
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18. Planetaire grenzen worden doorboord
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Source:
Adaptation of Steffen et al.,
Science, 2015 - Update from
Rockström et al, Nature, 2009
9 (onderling afhankelijke) planetaire
grenzen
2 kengrenzen (core planetary
boundaries):
• Biosfeerintegriteit
• Klimaatverandering
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19. Planetaire grenzen worden doorboord
18/02/2020Jones-KULeuven
Source:
Adaptation of Steffen et al.,
Science, 2015 - Update from
Rockström et al, Nature, 2009
9 (onderling afhankelijke) planetaire
grenzen
2 kengrenzen (core planetary
boundaries):
• Biosfeerintegriteit
• Klimaatverandering
BIO
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20. 1 miljoen soorten worden met uitsterven
bedreigd (UN IPBES, 2019)
“The biosphere, upon
which humanity as a
whole depends, is
being altered to an
unparalleled degree
across all spatial
scales. Biodiversity
(…) is declining faster
than at any time in
human history.”
(6-5-2019, SFP-
IPBES, 2019
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BIO
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27. IPCC SROCC (2019) toont projecties
voor stijging zeeniveau…
Source: SROCC Figure 1 (2019)
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28. IPCC SROCC (2019) toont projecties
voor stijging zeeniveau…
Source: SROCC Figure 1 (2019)
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29. IPCC SR15 (2018) toonde aan waarom
zelfs 2°C opwarming te veel is
Source: Figure
3.20, IPCC SR15
[Special Report
Global Warming of
1.5 ºC]
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“to avoid dangerous
climate change by
limiting global warming
to well below 2°C and
pursuing efforts to limit it
to 1.5°C”
(Paris Agreement, 2015)
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30. Review in Science bevestigt de noodzaak
om opwarming beneden 1.5°C te houden
Source: Hoegh-
Guldberg et al.,
Science, 2019
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“to avoid dangerous
climate change by
limiting global warming
to well below 2°C and
pursuing efforts to limit it
to 1.5°C”
(Paris Agreement, 2015)
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31. Opwarming van meer dan 1,5°C
brengt de SDGs in gevaar!
Source: Hoegh-
Guldberg et al.,
Science, 2019
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32. MAAR… we zitten op koers richting
opwarming van 3°C tegen 2100
Source:
Climate Action
Tracker
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34. De hamvraag: is er een planetair
kantelpunt?
Source: Lenton et al., Nature, 2019
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17/12/2019
35. Naar een onomkeerbare sprong richting
“Hothouse Earth” systeemtoestand?
Source: Steffen et al.,
PNAS, 2018
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36. Naar een onomkeerbare sprong richting
“Hothouse Earth” systeemtoestand?
Source: Steffen et al.,
PNAS, 2018
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“(..) the Earth System may be approaching a
planetary threshold that could lock in a
continuing rapid pathway toward much hotter
conditions—Hothouse Earth.
(…) a pathway that could not be reversed,
steered, or substantially slowed.
Where such a threshold might be is uncertain,
but it could be only decades ahead at a
temperature rise of ∼2.0 °C above
preindustrial, (…).
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37. Naar een onomkeerbare sprong richting
“Hothouse Earth” systeemtoestand?
Source: Steffen et al.,
PNAS, 2018
Jones-KULeuven18/02/2020
“(..) the Earth System may be approaching a
planetary threshold that could lock in a
continuing rapid pathway toward much hotter
conditions—Hothouse Earth.
(…) a pathway that could not be reversed,
steered, or substantially slowed.
Where such a threshold might be is uncertain,
but it could be only deacades ahead at a
temperature rise of ∼2.0 °C above
preindustrial, (…).
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38. Naar een onomkeerbare sprong richting
“Hothouse Earth” systeemtoestand?
Source: Steffen et al.,
PNAS, 2018
Jones-KULeuven18/02/2020
“(..) the Earth System may be approaching a
planetary threshold that could lock in a
continuing rapid pathway toward much hotter
conditions—Hothouse Earth.
(…) a pathway that could not be reversed,
steered, or substantially slowed.
Where such a threshold might be is uncertain,
but it could be only decades ahead at a
temperature rise of ∼2.0 °C above
preindustrial, (…).
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39. VN Rapport over “Climate
Apartheid” (HRC, 25 Juni 2019)
“We have reached a point
where the best-case outcome
is widespread death and
suffering by the end of this
century, and the worst case
puts humanity on the brink of
extinction”
(Philip Alston, the UN Special Rapporteur
on extreme poverty and human rights)
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40. “We have reached a point
where the best-case outcome
is widespread death and
suffering by the end of this
century, and the worst case
puts humanity on the brink of
extinction”
(Philip Alston, the UN Special Rapporteur
on extreme poverty and human rights)
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42. Planetair rentmeesterschap
“Stabilised Earth” toestand
Source: Steffen et al.,
PNAS, 2018
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“The Stabilized Earth trajectory requires
deliberate management of humanity’s
relationship with the rest of the Earth
System (..).
We suggest that a deep transformation
based on a fundamental reorientation of
human values, equity, behavior,
institutions, economies, and technologies
is required.”
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43. Planetair rentmeesterschap
“Stabilised Earth” toestand
Source: Steffen et al.,
PNAS, 2018
Jones-KULeuven18/02/2020
“The Stabilized Earth trajectory requires
deliberate management of humanity’s
relationship with the rest of the Earth
System (..).
We suggest that a deep transformation
based on a fundamental reorientation of
human values, equity, behavior,
institutions, economies, and technologies
is required.”
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44. Ingrediënten voor een ernstig
klimaat- en duurzaamheidsbeleid
140 onderzoekers
120 pagina’s
27 maatregelen
Jones-KULeuven18/02/2020
https://www.klimaatpanel.be/nl
[Kernpanel voor Klimaat en
Duurzaamheid, 14-5-2019]
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45. Ingrediënten voor een ernstig
klimaat- en duurzaamheidsbeleid
Klimaatneutrale
energie en
industrie
Samenlevings
-opbouw
Natuurlijke
ecosystemen
beschermen en
uitbreiden
Omslag in
landgebruik
voor wonen,
mobiliteit &
voeding
Duurzame
productie en
consumptie
Samenhangend
beleid
Wetenschap &
innovatie
140 onderzoekers
120 pagina’s
27 maatregelen
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https://www.klimaatpanel.be/nl
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46. Technology alone will not save us….
140 researchers
120 pages
27 measures
https://www.klimaatpanel.be/nl
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2/12/2019
Source: LPR 2014, WWF
47. Maar is wel nodig…
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New battery
technologies for
e-mobility &
energy storage
New resource-
efficient e-motors
for bikes, buses,
cars & ships
Carbon Capture
and Utilisation
Biobased,
recyclable
plastics
Magnetic cooling
devices
Advanced solar
cells & CSP
Hydrogen
steelmaking
Electrification of
metallurgy
51. Financiering via ETS
Innovation Fund
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Source: EC, Climate
Action, 2019
€ 10 billion
100% for
climate &
energy-
related R&I
52. Financiering via Moonshot
Programma (VL)
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Source: Catalisti, 2019
€ 200 million
100% for climate &
energy-related R&I
53. Over kosten en baten
van klimaatbeleid
& kansen voor lokale besturen
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54. Wat is de kost van Business as
Usual?
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Stern Review on the
Economics of Climate
Change, 2006
5-20% van het
mondiaal BNP…
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55. Wat is de kost van een ernstig*
klimaatbeleid?
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Stern Review on the
Economics of Climate
Change, 2006
2006 rapport:
1% van het
BNP
2008 update:
2% van het
BNP
* Stabilisatie bij 500-550 ppm CO2(eq.)
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56. Wat is de kost van een ernstig*
klimaatbeleid?
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Stern Review on the
Economics of Climate
Change, 2006
2006 rapport:
1% van het
BNP
2008 update:
2% van het
BNP“The Stern Review's main
conclusion is that the benefits
of strong, early action on
climate change far outweigh
the costs of not acting.” * Stabilisatie bij 500-550 ppm CO2(eq.)
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57. Vandaag, meer dan 10 jaar later,
zegt Lord Stern:
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59. Economen schenken klare wijn: there
is no alternative
Investeringskosten
Jaarlijkse investering: ~2-3%
BNP (cf. klimaatneutraliteit
tegen 2050)
Financiële voordelen
Vermeden kosten t.g.v.
klimaatschade (> 5-20% BNP)
Terugverdieneffecten en/of
secundaire voordelen (lokaal!)
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60. Lokale secundaire voordelen van
klimaat- en duurzaamheidsbeleid
Terugverdieneffecten
en vermeden kosten
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61. Lokale secundaire voordelen van
klimaat- en duurzaamheidsbeleid
Gezonde lucht en minder
lawaai & “waterslimme”,
leefbare steden
Terugverdieneffecten
en vermeden kosten
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63. Lokale secundaire voordelen van
klimaat- en duurzaamheidsbeleid
Gezonde lucht en minder
lawaai & “waterslimme”,
leefbare steden
Nieuwe jobs in cleantech
en andere sectoren
Terugverdieneffecten
en vermeden kosten
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65. Cleantech wordt steeds goedkoper
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Emissions Gap
Report, 2019
(UNEP)
66. Lokale secundaire voordelen van
klimaat- en duurzaamheidsbeleid
Gezonde lucht en minder
lawaai & “waterslimme”,
leefbare steden
Nieuwe jobs in cleantech
en andere sectoren
Veerkracht en sociale
cohesie
Verminderde materialen-
en energie-afhankelijkheid
Terugverdieneffecten
en vermeden kosten
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68. Lokale secundaire voordelen van
klimaat- en duurzaamheidsbeleid
Gezonde lucht en minder
lawaai & “waterslimme”,
leefbare steden
Nieuwe jobs in cleantech
en andere sectoren
Veerkracht en sociale
cohesie
Verminderde materialen-
en energie-afhankelijkheid
Terugverdieneffecten
en vermeden kosten
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72. Jones-KULeuven18/02/2020
(Actieve) Hoop is een werkword…
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“Ben ik bang of ben ik hoopvol? Ja ik ben bang, en ja ik ben
hoopvol. En dat is goed. Dat geeft me de kracht om actief aan de
slag te gaan. En ik ben niet alleen. Ik ben met miljoenen mensen.
Ik ga dus voor mijn pixels in de foto. Ik ga actief hopen. Daarom
ben ik hier. Met jullie. 1 + 1 is zoveel meer dan 2. Bedankt om
mee actief te hopen. Het doet deugd om met zoveel te zijn. Dat
geeft me hoop!!”
(Marian Jones (12 jaar), Kids for Climate
Speech, Theater Aan Zee, Oostende (4-8-2019)
73. Contact: Peter Tom Jones (KU
Leuven) - peter.jones@kuleuven.be
[Book: P.T. Jones & V. De Meyere,
Terra Reversa, De Transitie naar
rechtvaardige duurzaamheid,
EPO, 2016.]
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Dank voor de aandacht
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