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CLIMATE
By
Paul H. Carr
COVID-19
&
COVID-19 is reducing
climate change.
• Reduction of fossil fuel burning is:
-Cleaning our atmosphere & -
-17% in CO2 reduction slowing global
warming.
• Reduced meat production is also slowing
Methane Greenhouse gas emissions.
Emissions Declines Will Set Records This Year
An “unprecedented” fall in fossil fuel use, driven by the Covid-19 crisis, will lead to a drop,
according to new research.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/climate/global-emissions-decline.html
Seattle; March 2019 March 2020
N02 Decrease from lower vehicle emissions
GREENHOUSE GAS NO2 EMISSIONS in CHINA
December 2019 February 2020 Mid-March 2020
GREENHOUS GASES
CARBON DIOXIDE , CO2,
MOST WARMING.
NO2 WARMINS LESS,
– Measured via satellite.
Internal Combustion Engines
generate both CO2, NO2
Diesel engines emit black
aerosols in smog.
(Source: UN
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, IPCC,
2007Report)
Wall Street Journal, April 30, 2020
Decreasing price of OIL, a proxy for CO2 decrease.
Crude oil price increasing as economy starts to recover.
Published: 19 May 2020
Temporary reduction in daily global CO2emissions during
the COVID-19 forced confinement. 17% Decease
Corinne Le Quéré, Robert B. Jackson, Matthew W. Jones, Adam J. P. Smith, Sam Abernethy,
Robbie M. Andrew, + 8 more authors https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0797-x
CORONAVIRUS & CLIMATE
Mother Nature has the whole world in her hands.
Global problem: National boundaries do not matter
Need Science to understand, diagnose, and predict
Need United Nations (WHO) for collective action
If one waits until it’s serious, it’s too late.
Protective measures after the first case lowers the number of cases.
Waiting for a large case crisis, increased the number of cases for
both COVID-19 and Climate.
Stay-at-home order in on Mar 19 in CA. In NY on Mar 22, 23 times more deaths
Sweden only locked-down the elderly, hoped herd immunity would save economy.
International
Monetary Fund
expects from
other European
countries:
SWEDEN
Among the worst,
Some believed it
would be the best
since it did not
shut down its
economy
ECONOMIC CONTRACTION
SWEDEN 6.9-9.7%
ITALY 9.1%
SPAIN 8%
FRANCE 7.2%
UK 7%
GERMANY 6.5%
DENMARK 6.5%
FINLAND 6%
COUNTRY
DEATHS PER 1 MILLION
POPULATION
SWEDEN 389
DENMARK 97
FINLAND 55
NORWAY 43
ICELAND 29
“The economy will recover, but not the
dead” (Jesus was the exception)
GERMANY 103
UNITED STATES 316
Potential second wave of infections until vaccine.
NY City has the most antibodies in the world. Still vulnerable to 2nd outbreak until vaccine.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/28/upshot/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html
SENSITIVITY 80% contact, 2600 deaths/day. 70% contact. 600 deaths/day
TO AVOID A 2ND WAVE OF COVID-19 INFECTIONS,
Until we get a vaccine for everyone:
• Avoid crowds
When shopping for necessities:
• Maintain 6 feet physical not social distancing
• Need social connections for maximum immunity &
depression, suicide prevention.
• Wear masks to avoid COVID-19 spreading.
NASA photos of Thwaites Glacier, size of Mexico, Western
Antarctica.
Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Penn State University,
an author of the last IPCC report: “If the Thwaites Glacier
breaks free from its rocky berth, it could raise sea levels 10 ft.”22
CLIMATE CRISIS: SEA LEVELS COULD RISE 10 FEET
Sea levels could rise by 1 m (3 ft) by 2050. Could we take action to prevent a 5 m
(18 ft) rise by 2058? The lifetime of CO2 is 100s of years.
Atmos. Chem. Phys., March 2016.
J. Hansen et. al.
1 M TIPPING LEVEL
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761–3812, Mar 2016 www.atmos-chem-
phys.net/16/3761/2016/ doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016 © Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution
3.0 License.
Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from
paleoclimate data, climate modeling….
James Hansen1, Makiko Sato1, Paul Hearty2, Reto Ruedy3,4, Maxwell Kelley3,4, Valerie Masson-Delmotte5, Gary
Russell4, George Tselioudis4, Junji Cao6, Eric Rignot7,8, Isabella Velicogna7,8, Blair Tormey9, Bailey Donovan10,
Evgeniya Kandiano11, Karina von Schuckmann12,….
1Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY 10115, USA
2Department of Environmental Studies, University of North Carolina at Wilmington, NC 28403, USA 3Trinnovium LLC,
New York, NY 10025, USA 4NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA
5Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Gif-sur-
Yvette, France 6Key Lab of Aerosol Chemistry & Physics, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, Xi’an 710075, China 7Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109,
USA 8Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA 9Program for the Study of
Developed Shorelines, Western Carolina University, Cullowhee, NC 28723, USA 10Department of Geological Sciences,
East Carolina University, Greenville, NC 27858, USA 11GEOMAR, Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research,
Wischhofstrasse 1–3, Kiel 24148, Germany 12Mediterranean Institute of Oceanography, University of Toulon, La
Garde, France 13Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027,
USA
Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 23 Jul – Accepted: 18 Feb 2016 – Published: 22 Mar 2016
5 Meters (18 Feet) Sea Level Rise
Trump’s Mar-a-Lago
Palm Beach
40 % of the world’s population lives near the
sea-coast.
A 10-foot rise in sea levels worldwide would
be major humanitarian and economic crisis.
Big Initiative: Eliminate Greenhouse gas
emissions to stop global warming.
Let’s assume the Initiative will get CO2
emission down to zero in 10 years.
Reducing CO2 burning to zero in 10 years, does not reduce CO2 in atmosphere.
CO2 has a 100-year lifetime. ( Alan Emery plotted these curves)
Measurements
Temperatures will still rise, but a slower rate, as CO2 slowly decays
Sea levels will still rise, but at a slower rate as CO2 decays
CORONAVIRUS & CLIMATE
Mother Nature has the whole world in her hands.
Global problem: National boundaries do not matter
Need Science to diagnose and predict
Need United Nations (WHO) for collective action
If one waits until the problem looks big, it is too late.
TIMESCALE AFTER DRASTIC ACTION.
COVID-19: Months for results.
CLIMATE CHANGE REDUCTIONS:
NO2: Cleaner Air In Months
CO2: Many Decades to Reduce:
Sea Level Rise
Heat Waves
Forest Fires,
Hurricane Intensity
32
March for
Science,
Earth Day,
April 22,
2017
Poster.
CONCLUSION:
Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 10 years.
“A stitch in time saves nine.”
Small Modular Nuclear Reactors for carbon free
electricity, 24/7.
MIT Study. A nuclear buildup could completely
decarbonize the electric power structure.
See my presentation:
Making Earth Cool Again, Challenges & Solutions
https://www.slideshare.net/paulhcarr/making-earth-cool-again-challenges-solutions
Google search “Paul H. Carr”
10/9/15
www.
CitizensClimateLobby.org
- Revenue neutral
carbon fee with
dividend. (RNCFD)
-Dividend would be
returned to
everyone.
$2000 / family.
-Stimulating economy
& creating 2 million
jobs.
- Stimulate Green
Energy Innovation.True social cost of burning fossil fuels.
Harness Greed towards Green
COOL CUMMUNITY SOLUTION
• Capitalistic
Carbon Fee plus Dividend.
www.CitizensClimateLobby.com
• The COVID-19 low price of oil will
help. People used to higher oil
prices.
36
Of the 100 ways of
reducing global warming
the following were rated:
3. Reduced Food
Waste
4. Plant-Rich Diet
37
Peter Kalmus, PhD,
atmospheric
scientist at Caltech,
lives with his wife
and 2 children on
1/10th the fossil
fuels of the average
American.
STOP EATING RED MEAT: BEEF AND PORK
Agriculture accounts for 24% of our greenhouse emissions.
• Cattle & pigs emit the greenhouse gases methane, CH4. They eat
grains needed for humans.
• In addition, deforestation—clearing land for crops, for instance—
removes trees that pull CO2 out of the air,
2017 CO2 levels
of 410 ppm are
130 ppm above
the pre-
industrial
average
1875
• Carbon
isotope ratios
indicate the
CO2 increase
since1750 is
from burning
~300 million yr
old fossil
fuels.
1. HUMAN INFLUENCE ON WARMING
42
Little Ice Age
On January 21nd after the first
American case,
President Trump stated:
"We have it totally under control.
It's one person coming in from
China. We have it under control.
It's going to be just fine."
Published: 19 May 2020
Temporary reduction in daily global CO2emissions during
the COVID-19 forced confinement
Corinne Le Quéré, Robert B. Jackson, Matthew W. Jones, Adam J. P. Smith, Sam Abernethy,
Robbie M. Andrew, + 8 more authors
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0797-x

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C0VID-19 and CLIMATE

  • 2. COVID-19 is reducing climate change. • Reduction of fossil fuel burning is: -Cleaning our atmosphere & - -17% in CO2 reduction slowing global warming. • Reduced meat production is also slowing Methane Greenhouse gas emissions.
  • 3. Emissions Declines Will Set Records This Year An “unprecedented” fall in fossil fuel use, driven by the Covid-19 crisis, will lead to a drop, according to new research. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/climate/global-emissions-decline.html Seattle; March 2019 March 2020 N02 Decrease from lower vehicle emissions
  • 4. GREENHOUSE GAS NO2 EMISSIONS in CHINA December 2019 February 2020 Mid-March 2020
  • 5. GREENHOUS GASES CARBON DIOXIDE , CO2, MOST WARMING. NO2 WARMINS LESS, – Measured via satellite. Internal Combustion Engines generate both CO2, NO2 Diesel engines emit black aerosols in smog. (Source: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, 2007Report)
  • 6. Wall Street Journal, April 30, 2020
  • 7. Decreasing price of OIL, a proxy for CO2 decrease.
  • 8. Crude oil price increasing as economy starts to recover.
  • 9. Published: 19 May 2020 Temporary reduction in daily global CO2emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement. 17% Decease Corinne Le Quéré, Robert B. Jackson, Matthew W. Jones, Adam J. P. Smith, Sam Abernethy, Robbie M. Andrew, + 8 more authors https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0797-x
  • 10. CORONAVIRUS & CLIMATE Mother Nature has the whole world in her hands. Global problem: National boundaries do not matter Need Science to understand, diagnose, and predict Need United Nations (WHO) for collective action If one waits until it’s serious, it’s too late.
  • 11. Protective measures after the first case lowers the number of cases. Waiting for a large case crisis, increased the number of cases for both COVID-19 and Climate.
  • 12.
  • 13. Stay-at-home order in on Mar 19 in CA. In NY on Mar 22, 23 times more deaths
  • 14. Sweden only locked-down the elderly, hoped herd immunity would save economy.
  • 15. International Monetary Fund expects from other European countries: SWEDEN Among the worst, Some believed it would be the best since it did not shut down its economy ECONOMIC CONTRACTION SWEDEN 6.9-9.7% ITALY 9.1% SPAIN 8% FRANCE 7.2% UK 7% GERMANY 6.5% DENMARK 6.5% FINLAND 6%
  • 16. COUNTRY DEATHS PER 1 MILLION POPULATION SWEDEN 389 DENMARK 97 FINLAND 55 NORWAY 43 ICELAND 29 “The economy will recover, but not the dead” (Jesus was the exception) GERMANY 103 UNITED STATES 316
  • 17. Potential second wave of infections until vaccine.
  • 18. NY City has the most antibodies in the world. Still vulnerable to 2nd outbreak until vaccine. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/28/upshot/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html
  • 19. SENSITIVITY 80% contact, 2600 deaths/day. 70% contact. 600 deaths/day
  • 20.
  • 21. TO AVOID A 2ND WAVE OF COVID-19 INFECTIONS, Until we get a vaccine for everyone: • Avoid crowds When shopping for necessities: • Maintain 6 feet physical not social distancing • Need social connections for maximum immunity & depression, suicide prevention. • Wear masks to avoid COVID-19 spreading.
  • 22. NASA photos of Thwaites Glacier, size of Mexico, Western Antarctica. Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Penn State University, an author of the last IPCC report: “If the Thwaites Glacier breaks free from its rocky berth, it could raise sea levels 10 ft.”22 CLIMATE CRISIS: SEA LEVELS COULD RISE 10 FEET
  • 23. Sea levels could rise by 1 m (3 ft) by 2050. Could we take action to prevent a 5 m (18 ft) rise by 2058? The lifetime of CO2 is 100s of years. Atmos. Chem. Phys., March 2016. J. Hansen et. al. 1 M TIPPING LEVEL
  • 24. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761–3812, Mar 2016 www.atmos-chem- phys.net/16/3761/2016/ doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016 © Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling…. James Hansen1, Makiko Sato1, Paul Hearty2, Reto Ruedy3,4, Maxwell Kelley3,4, Valerie Masson-Delmotte5, Gary Russell4, George Tselioudis4, Junji Cao6, Eric Rignot7,8, Isabella Velicogna7,8, Blair Tormey9, Bailey Donovan10, Evgeniya Kandiano11, Karina von Schuckmann12,…. 1Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY 10115, USA 2Department of Environmental Studies, University of North Carolina at Wilmington, NC 28403, USA 3Trinnovium LLC, New York, NY 10025, USA 4NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA 5Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Gif-sur- Yvette, France 6Key Lab of Aerosol Chemistry & Physics, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an 710075, China 7Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA 8Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA 9Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines, Western Carolina University, Cullowhee, NC 28723, USA 10Department of Geological Sciences, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC 27858, USA 11GEOMAR, Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Wischhofstrasse 1–3, Kiel 24148, Germany 12Mediterranean Institute of Oceanography, University of Toulon, La Garde, France 13Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 23 Jul – Accepted: 18 Feb 2016 – Published: 22 Mar 2016
  • 25. 5 Meters (18 Feet) Sea Level Rise Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Palm Beach
  • 26. 40 % of the world’s population lives near the sea-coast. A 10-foot rise in sea levels worldwide would be major humanitarian and economic crisis. Big Initiative: Eliminate Greenhouse gas emissions to stop global warming. Let’s assume the Initiative will get CO2 emission down to zero in 10 years.
  • 27. Reducing CO2 burning to zero in 10 years, does not reduce CO2 in atmosphere. CO2 has a 100-year lifetime. ( Alan Emery plotted these curves) Measurements
  • 28. Temperatures will still rise, but a slower rate, as CO2 slowly decays
  • 29. Sea levels will still rise, but at a slower rate as CO2 decays
  • 30. CORONAVIRUS & CLIMATE Mother Nature has the whole world in her hands. Global problem: National boundaries do not matter Need Science to diagnose and predict Need United Nations (WHO) for collective action If one waits until the problem looks big, it is too late.
  • 31. TIMESCALE AFTER DRASTIC ACTION. COVID-19: Months for results. CLIMATE CHANGE REDUCTIONS: NO2: Cleaner Air In Months CO2: Many Decades to Reduce: Sea Level Rise Heat Waves Forest Fires, Hurricane Intensity
  • 33. CONCLUSION: Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 10 years. “A stitch in time saves nine.” Small Modular Nuclear Reactors for carbon free electricity, 24/7. MIT Study. A nuclear buildup could completely decarbonize the electric power structure. See my presentation: Making Earth Cool Again, Challenges & Solutions https://www.slideshare.net/paulhcarr/making-earth-cool-again-challenges-solutions Google search “Paul H. Carr”
  • 34. 10/9/15 www. CitizensClimateLobby.org - Revenue neutral carbon fee with dividend. (RNCFD) -Dividend would be returned to everyone. $2000 / family. -Stimulating economy & creating 2 million jobs. - Stimulate Green Energy Innovation.True social cost of burning fossil fuels. Harness Greed towards Green
  • 35. COOL CUMMUNITY SOLUTION • Capitalistic Carbon Fee plus Dividend. www.CitizensClimateLobby.com • The COVID-19 low price of oil will help. People used to higher oil prices.
  • 36. 36 Of the 100 ways of reducing global warming the following were rated: 3. Reduced Food Waste 4. Plant-Rich Diet
  • 37. 37 Peter Kalmus, PhD, atmospheric scientist at Caltech, lives with his wife and 2 children on 1/10th the fossil fuels of the average American.
  • 38.
  • 39. STOP EATING RED MEAT: BEEF AND PORK Agriculture accounts for 24% of our greenhouse emissions. • Cattle & pigs emit the greenhouse gases methane, CH4. They eat grains needed for humans. • In addition, deforestation—clearing land for crops, for instance— removes trees that pull CO2 out of the air,
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42. 2017 CO2 levels of 410 ppm are 130 ppm above the pre- industrial average 1875 • Carbon isotope ratios indicate the CO2 increase since1750 is from burning ~300 million yr old fossil fuels. 1. HUMAN INFLUENCE ON WARMING 42 Little Ice Age
  • 43.
  • 44. On January 21nd after the first American case, President Trump stated: "We have it totally under control. It's one person coming in from China. We have it under control. It's going to be just fine."
  • 45.
  • 46. Published: 19 May 2020 Temporary reduction in daily global CO2emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement Corinne Le Quéré, Robert B. Jackson, Matthew W. Jones, Adam J. P. Smith, Sam Abernethy, Robbie M. Andrew, + 8 more authors https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0797-x