CTP’s Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.

1. 1
Threat Update: November 7, 2017
For a closer look at Kenya this week, view the full Threat Update.
The U.S. Department of State responded to an al Shabaab threat
against Americans in Mogadishu by withdrawing all non-essential
personnel. Al Shabaab attempted at least eight explosive attacks near
the Mogadishu airport where the U.S. is headquartered in the past three
weeks. Security concerns continue to constrain the U.S. diplomatic
presence in Somalia.
The al Qaeda
Network
Somalia
Yemen Saudi Arabia is capitalizing on the al Houthi-Saleh ballistic missile fired
at Riyadh on November 4 to compel the international community to
toughen its stance on Iranian influence in the region. Saudi Arabia
called the missile launch an act of war by Iran and Lebanon.
Al Qaeda coordinated media statements to pressure Syrian factions to
coalesce under its leadership. Al Qaeda affiliates in West Africa and
the Sinai urged Syrian groups to resolve internal disputes and unify.
Hayat Tahrir al Sham, the principal target of this messaging, is unlikely to
seek an al Qaeda-mediated rapprochement in the near term.

2. 2
Threat Update: November 7, 2017
Libya
Tunisia ISIS may be adapting to Tunisian security forces’ increased capabilities
by conducting a series of low-level attacks similar to its campaign in
Europe. A reported ISIS militant stabbed two police officers on November
1. Another reported ISIS militant attempted to run over two soldiers with a
car on November 3. Recent arrests suggest that ISIS is conducting
reconnaissance to prepare for a larger attack on a security installation.
Armed groups are jockeying for influence in Tripoli, increasing the risk of
violence and displacement in Libya’s largest city. A Qaddafi loyalist
militia gained a stronghold near Tripoli, sparking a standoff with the
militias that control the area. LNA commander Khalifa Haftar’s push to
consolidate control over armed forces throughout Libya may also
worsen the competition in Tripoli.

3. Yemen
3Randy Morton and Emma Tveit
Saudi Arabia capitalizes on al Houthi-Saleh
missile launch to highlight Iranian involvement
Saudi Arabia intercepted
an al Houthi-Saleh ballistic
missile over Riyadh.
1
Saudi officials claimed the
November 4 missile may
constitute an “act of war” by
Iran and Lebanon.
3
Saudi Arabia implemented a
temporary land, air, and sea
blockade around all of Yemen to
stem Iranian arms smuggling.
4
Saudi officials claimed
Lebanese Hezbollah launched
the November 4 missile from
within al Houthi-Saleh territory.
2
Saudi Crown Prince claimed
that Iran supplying rockets to
al Houthi-Saleh forces is “an
act of direct military
aggression.”
5

4. Horn of
Africa
4Matthew Cassidy
Al Shabaab threatens U.S. diplomatic officials
in Mogadishu
3
1
2
5
4
1. 17 OCT: Somali police
interdicted two trucks
reportedly filled with
explosives in Waberi district.
2. 28 OCT: Al Shabaab
militants conducted a
complex attack on the Naso-
Hablod Two hotel in Shingani
district, killing over 23
civilians and several
government officials.
3. 02 NOV: Al Shabaab
militants detonated a VBIED
targeting a SFG official in
Hodan district.
4. 04 NOV: Al Shabaab
militants temporarily
seized a SNA checkpoint
in Afgoi, where al
Shabaab maintains a
stronghold to launch
attacks in Mogadishu.
5. 04 NOV: The U.S.
Department of State
recalled all non-essential
diplomatic staff from
Mogadishu due to a
threat against the
Mogadishu airport.

5. al Qaeda
Network
5Colin Neafsey
Al Qaeda pressures Syrian groups to unify
with coordinated media statements
15-18 OCT: Former Jabhat al
Nusra shari’a official Dr. Sami
al Oraidi released a series
calling the Jabhat al Nusra-al
Qaeda split an act of defiance
and disobedience.
1
25 OCT: AQIM, JNIM, and
Jund al Islam issued a joint
statement urging Syrian
factions to resolve internal
disputes and unify.
2
01 NOV: Hayat Tahrir al Sham
militants attempted to assassinate
a Jaysh al Ahrar leader, likely to
disrupt an al Qaeda-mediated
rapprochement between the two
groups.
3

6. Libya
6
3
4
Erin Neale
Tensions rise in Tripoli; Haftar seeks leadership
of unified military
1. 29 OCT - 01 NOV: LNA
commander Haftar held
meetings in Benghazi and
Cairo to discuss the
unification of the Libyan
armed forces.
2. 01 NOV: Zintani forces
attempted to oust a Qaddafi
loyalist group from its base in
Wirshefana area, southwest
Tripoli.
3. 04 NOV: A coalition of armed
groups agreed to coordinate
to secure Tripoli.
123

7. Maghreb
7
ISIS conducts low-level attacks, prepares to
target security installations
1. 01 NOV: A reported ISIS
militant stabbed two police
officers in Le Bardo.
2. 03 NOV: Tunisian security
forces arrested two reported
ISIS militants for
photographing the Applied
Weapons School in El
Hamma.
3. 03 NOV: A suspected ISIS
militant attempted to run
over two Tunisian soldiers
with a car outside a military
base in El Baten.
4. 04 NOV: Tunisian security
forces arrested an ISIS
militant for photographing
several security installations
in Menzel Temime.
1 4
3
2
Bryan Gilday

8. Acronym List
AMISOM: African Union Mission in Somalia
AQAP: al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
AQIM: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
AQIS: al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent
BDB: Benghazi Defense Brigades
BRSC: Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council
CJA: Congress for Justice in Azawad
CMA: Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad
GATIA: Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group
HTS: Hayat Tahrir al Sham
ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham
JNIM: Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen
GNA: Libyan Government of National Accord
LNA: Libyan National Army
MAA: Arab Movement of Azawad
MINUSMA: United National Multidimensional
Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali
MNLA: National Movement for the Liberation of the
Azawad
MSCD: Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna
MUJAO: The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West
Africa
SNA: Somalia National Army
TTP: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
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9. For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Contact us at criticalthreats@aei.org or (202) 888-6575.
Frederick W. Kagan
Director
Critical Threats Project Team
Katherine Zimmerman
Research Manager
Caroline Goodson
Program Assistant
al Qaeda Analysts
Emily Estelle
Maher Farrukh
Iran Analysts
Marie Donovan
Mike Saidi
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