Burden of proof: A comprehensive review of the feasibility of 100% renewable-...www.thiiink.com
An effective response to climate change demands rapid replacement of fossil carbon energy sources. This must occur concurrently with an ongoing rise in total global energy consumption. While many modelled scenarios have been published claiming to show that a 100% renewable electricity system is achievable, there is no empirical or historical evidence that demonstrates that such systems are in fact feasible. Of the studies published to date, 24 have forecast regional, national or global energy requirements at sufficient detail to be considered potentially credible. We critically review these studies using four novel feasibility criteria for reliable electricity systems needed to meet electricity demand this century. These criteria are: (1) consistency with mainstream energy-demand forecasts; (2) simulating supply to meet demand reliably at hourly, half-hourly, and five-minute timescales, with resilience to extreme climate events; (3) identifying necessary transmission and distribution requirements; and (4) maintaining the provision of essential ancillary services. Evaluated against these objective criteria, none of the 24 studies provides convincing evidence that these basic feasibility criteria can be met. Of a maximum possible unweighted feasibility score of seven, the highest score for any one study was four. Eight of 24 scenarios (33%) provided no form of system simulation. Twelve (50%) relied on unrealistic forecasts of energy demand. While four studies (17%; all regional) articulated transmission requirements, only two scenarios—drawn from the same study—addressed ancillary-service requirements. In addition to feasibility issues, the heavy reliance on exploitation of hydroelectricity and biomass raises concerns regarding environ- mental sustainability and social justice. Strong empirical evidence of feasibility must be demonstrated for any study that attempts to construct or model a low-carbon energy future based on any combination of low-carbon technology. On the basis of this review, efforts to date seem to have substantially underestimated the challenge and delayed the identification and implementation of effective and comprehensive decarbonization pathways.
Mapping the evolution of renewable resources and their relation with EROI and...Paula Díaz
Díaz, P., Miao, B., Masó, J. (2013). Mapping the evolution of renewable resources and their relation with EROI and energy policies. In proceedings of the International Symposium on Remote Sensing of Environment (ISRSE35), Beijing, April 2013.
Environmental valuation techniques a reviewDocumentStory
This document discusses various techniques for valuing environmental assets and services that are not traded in markets. It begins by defining environmental valuation and explaining concepts like total economic value and willingness to pay. It then describes several techniques in detail: hedonic pricing, travel cost method, contingent valuation method, production factor method, and averting behavior method. As an example, it summarizes a case study valuing the non-use benefits of maintaining a wetland in Greece using contingent valuation surveys.
EMERGY ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY AND INDICATORS
In emergy analysis various forms of energy can be expressed as coal, oil or another given fuel, and these can be compared and assessed (Finn, 1980) . This is, somewhat impossible as regards the materials, services or labour necessary for the energy production process. Yet, each of the input quantities required in the energy production process has its own energy value, which has been typically consumed in the production or in ensuring economic resources created by the production process, and this value should be taken into account in assessing the energy production process. While availing emergy calculations, therefore mentioned input values can be calculated in comparable unit, and with their help it is possible to determine the total emergy necessary for the production process.The production process uses two environmental resources: • R – renewable natural resources, which in turn are divided into two categories: - Renewable R1, which include solar energy, wind energy and rain; - Renewable R2, which are related to local ecosystem-provided resources such as renewable energy resources (biomass), as well as water and air in process-cooling equipment. Air is also availed in combustion processes. • N – non-renewable natural resources, including coal, gas, oil products or groundwater if used faster than its regeneration rate. Input F contains economy-ensured services related with the development and typical operation of the production process, services, technical equipment, remuneration, etc. Total Y emergy is attributed to the process end product (output) and is labeled Y. The production byproduct (pollutant) flow is labeled with W, and it penetrates the environment. Availing the examined flows, the following indicators are defined for each production process (company).
The document discusses the role of biomass in climate change mitigation. It outlines four research questions: 1) assessing the potential future supply of biomass from residues and energy crops, 2) determining demand for biomass for energy and chemicals, 3) evaluating the overall greenhouse gas impact of biomass deployment, and 4) examining the role of biomass in climate change mitigation scenarios. The research will use the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment to analyze biomass supply, demand, and emissions under different scenarios.
This document provides an overview of a presentation on evaluating environmental impacts of alternative transport fuels and powertrains via a life cycle approach. The research aims to conduct a holistic sustainability assessment of alternative fuels and powertrains in the transport sector. Key research objectives include identifying gaps in existing studies, comparing triple bottom line impacts, and identifying which alternate fuel best mitigates emissions. The methodology section outlines using the SimaPro software and life cycle impact assessment to model and analyze impacts. Preliminary results show well-to-tank and tank-to-wheel emissions and energy use for different vehicle fuel systems. A timeline is provided for research activities over four years, including data collection, modeling, analysis, conference presentations, and thesis writing
The role of valuation of ecosystem services for decision making & Methods of ...Iwl Pcu
The document discusses methods for valuing ecosystem services to inform decision making, including market prices, replacement costs, benefit transfer, and contingent valuation, and notes that while valuation studies alone cannot determine decisions, they can help identify trade-offs between ecosystem services and other economic activities.
Burden of proof: A comprehensive review of the feasibility of 100% renewable-...www.thiiink.com
An effective response to climate change demands rapid replacement of fossil carbon energy sources. This must occur concurrently with an ongoing rise in total global energy consumption. While many modelled scenarios have been published claiming to show that a 100% renewable electricity system is achievable, there is no empirical or historical evidence that demonstrates that such systems are in fact feasible. Of the studies published to date, 24 have forecast regional, national or global energy requirements at sufficient detail to be considered potentially credible. We critically review these studies using four novel feasibility criteria for reliable electricity systems needed to meet electricity demand this century. These criteria are: (1) consistency with mainstream energy-demand forecasts; (2) simulating supply to meet demand reliably at hourly, half-hourly, and five-minute timescales, with resilience to extreme climate events; (3) identifying necessary transmission and distribution requirements; and (4) maintaining the provision of essential ancillary services. Evaluated against these objective criteria, none of the 24 studies provides convincing evidence that these basic feasibility criteria can be met. Of a maximum possible unweighted feasibility score of seven, the highest score for any one study was four. Eight of 24 scenarios (33%) provided no form of system simulation. Twelve (50%) relied on unrealistic forecasts of energy demand. While four studies (17%; all regional) articulated transmission requirements, only two scenarios—drawn from the same study—addressed ancillary-service requirements. In addition to feasibility issues, the heavy reliance on exploitation of hydroelectricity and biomass raises concerns regarding environ- mental sustainability and social justice. Strong empirical evidence of feasibility must be demonstrated for any study that attempts to construct or model a low-carbon energy future based on any combination of low-carbon technology. On the basis of this review, efforts to date seem to have substantially underestimated the challenge and delayed the identification and implementation of effective and comprehensive decarbonization pathways.
Mapping the evolution of renewable resources and their relation with EROI and...Paula Díaz
Díaz, P., Miao, B., Masó, J. (2013). Mapping the evolution of renewable resources and their relation with EROI and energy policies. In proceedings of the International Symposium on Remote Sensing of Environment (ISRSE35), Beijing, April 2013.
Environmental valuation techniques a reviewDocumentStory
This document discusses various techniques for valuing environmental assets and services that are not traded in markets. It begins by defining environmental valuation and explaining concepts like total economic value and willingness to pay. It then describes several techniques in detail: hedonic pricing, travel cost method, contingent valuation method, production factor method, and averting behavior method. As an example, it summarizes a case study valuing the non-use benefits of maintaining a wetland in Greece using contingent valuation surveys.
EMERGY ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY AND INDICATORS
In emergy analysis various forms of energy can be expressed as coal, oil or another given fuel, and these can be compared and assessed (Finn, 1980) . This is, somewhat impossible as regards the materials, services or labour necessary for the energy production process. Yet, each of the input quantities required in the energy production process has its own energy value, which has been typically consumed in the production or in ensuring economic resources created by the production process, and this value should be taken into account in assessing the energy production process. While availing emergy calculations, therefore mentioned input values can be calculated in comparable unit, and with their help it is possible to determine the total emergy necessary for the production process.The production process uses two environmental resources: • R – renewable natural resources, which in turn are divided into two categories: - Renewable R1, which include solar energy, wind energy and rain; - Renewable R2, which are related to local ecosystem-provided resources such as renewable energy resources (biomass), as well as water and air in process-cooling equipment. Air is also availed in combustion processes. • N – non-renewable natural resources, including coal, gas, oil products or groundwater if used faster than its regeneration rate. Input F contains economy-ensured services related with the development and typical operation of the production process, services, technical equipment, remuneration, etc. Total Y emergy is attributed to the process end product (output) and is labeled Y. The production byproduct (pollutant) flow is labeled with W, and it penetrates the environment. Availing the examined flows, the following indicators are defined for each production process (company).
The document discusses the role of biomass in climate change mitigation. It outlines four research questions: 1) assessing the potential future supply of biomass from residues and energy crops, 2) determining demand for biomass for energy and chemicals, 3) evaluating the overall greenhouse gas impact of biomass deployment, and 4) examining the role of biomass in climate change mitigation scenarios. The research will use the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment to analyze biomass supply, demand, and emissions under different scenarios.
This document provides an overview of a presentation on evaluating environmental impacts of alternative transport fuels and powertrains via a life cycle approach. The research aims to conduct a holistic sustainability assessment of alternative fuels and powertrains in the transport sector. Key research objectives include identifying gaps in existing studies, comparing triple bottom line impacts, and identifying which alternate fuel best mitigates emissions. The methodology section outlines using the SimaPro software and life cycle impact assessment to model and analyze impacts. Preliminary results show well-to-tank and tank-to-wheel emissions and energy use for different vehicle fuel systems. A timeline is provided for research activities over four years, including data collection, modeling, analysis, conference presentations, and thesis writing
The role of valuation of ecosystem services for decision making & Methods of ...Iwl Pcu
The document discusses methods for valuing ecosystem services to inform decision making, including market prices, replacement costs, benefit transfer, and contingent valuation, and notes that while valuation studies alone cannot determine decisions, they can help identify trade-offs between ecosystem services and other economic activities.
Measurement of economic value of environmentSharon Kour
This document discusses methods for valuing the environment economically. It begins by defining economics and environmental valuation. Indirect methods like the hedonic pricing method and travel cost method are revealed preference approaches that observe real market choices. Direct methods like contingent valuation ask people how much an environmental good is worth. The document explains each method in detail and their applications and limitations. It concludes that environmental valuation is important for natural resource management by accounting for the total economic value of ecosystems.
IJERD (www.ijerd.com) International Journal of Engineering Research and Devel...IJERD Editor
1. The document summarizes a study that investigated awareness of renewable energy technology education in Adamawa and Taraba States of northeast Nigeria. A total of 360 questionnaires were administered across 12 local government areas, with respondents aged 18-50.
2. The results revealed that 67% of respondents in both states were unaware of any form of renewable energy. 54% had not shown concern for the environment previously. However, most respondents were willing to learn about and adopt renewable energy technologies.
3. The majority of respondents felt they needed more information about renewable energy, especially through radio and schools. However, over 70% thought the government should take primary responsibility for increasing renewable energy use.
Designing resilient creative communities through biomimetic service designRSD7 Symposium
This document discusses how adopting biomimetic tools in service design can increase the resilience of creative communities. It explores using nature as a model to design resilient social systems and organizations. Specifically, it examines how mapping connections between diverse interest groups within a social enterprise, like the Apano Meria organization, can create redundancy and thus more resilience, similar to ecosystems. The document concludes that a biomimetic, permaculture-inspired approach focusing on diffuse design capacity and cooperation between groups can help transition communities towards more sustainable models.
This document discusses principles and techniques for valuing the environment. It defines the different types of environmental values, including direct use, indirect use, non-use, and intrinsic values. Methods for valuing the environment are also presented, including market-based approaches like factor of production valuation and defensive expenditures, as well as non-market approaches like contingent valuation. The document provides examples and limitations of each technique.
An Economic Analysis of Green and Grey Infrastructure - TRIECA Conference 2019Robert Muir
TRIECA Conference , 2019, An Economic Analysis of Green and Grey Infrastructure Benefits and Costs, Robert J. Muir, M.A.Sc., P.Eng., Manager, Stormwater, City of Markham, Fabian Papa, M.A.Sc., MBA, P.Eng., President, FP&P HydraTek
Presentation reviews regulations on policies on infrastructure cost, provides a history of cost benefit analysis, reviews Ontario green infrastructure policy and cost considerations, identifies research gaps in cost benefit analysis, evaluates the costs and benefits of grey, green and blended grey and green infrastructure strategies considering full lifecycle costs and system-wide implementation in the City of Markham. Analysis is based on this upcoming WEAO paper https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2019/03/an-economic-analysis-of-green-v-grey.html
Compensatory Mitigation for Utility-Scale Solar Energy ProjectsBarbara Jean Neal
This document summarizes research on compensatory mitigation costs for six utility-scale solar energy projects. The research aimed to compare these costs across projects to understand the types and consistency of mitigation requirements. The results found costs were very dissimilar and inconsistent between states and projects, with no clear reasons identified. Mitigation costs did not correlate with project size or technology. More data is still needed to ensure the compensatory mitigation process is fair and properly managing land use. Continued research on mitigation costs is recommended.
Local productive systems planning tools for bioregional developmentostemi
The paper introduces to bioregion concept and describes territorial metabolic flows tools usefull to identify and evaluate strategies and appropriate actions to increase the eco‐efficiency of
local productive systems. Bioregion concept recently re‐emerged involves also better eco‐efficiency conditions by directing production and consumption flows towards locally available resources use and therefore contributing to basic resources cycles closure.
Reasoning of database consistency through description logicsAhmad karawash
The document discusses reasoning of database consistency through description logics. It begins with an introduction and overview before covering data models and description logics, description logics and database querying, data integration, and concluding. It describes how entity relationship models are used to describe database structure and how they can be transformed into description logics knowledge bases. This allows reasoning about database consistency, satisfiability, and other properties to identify issues like redundancy. Description logics are also discussed as a way to perform querying and classify queries.
2 5 reasoning in algebra and geometry (1)Mahr Rich
This document discusses reasoning in algebra and geometry. It covers:
1) Identifying and using properties of equality like addition, subtraction, multiplication, division, and properties of congruence like reflexive, symmetric, and transitive.
2) Using the distributive property to justify combining like terms.
3) Using properties of congruence to justify statements.
Default Logics for Plausible Reasoning with Controversial AxiomsRommel Carvalho
Presentation given by Thomas Scharrenbach at the 6th Uncertainty Reasoning for the Semantic Web Workshop at the 9th International Semantic Web Conference in 2010.
Paper: Default Logics for Plausible Reasoning with Controversial Axioms
Abstract: Using a variant of Lehmann's Default Logics and Probabilistic Description Logics we recently presented a framework that invalidates those unwanted inferences that cause concept unsatisfiability without the need to remove explicitly stated axioms. The solutions of this methods were shown to outperform classical ontology repair w.r.t. the number of inferences invalidated. However, conflicts may still exist in the knowledge base and can make reasoning ambiguous. Furthermore, solutions with a minimal number of inferences invalidated do not necessarily minimize the number of conflicts. In this paper we provide an overview over finding solutions that have a minimal number of conflicts while invalidating as few inferences as possible. Specifically, we propose to evaluate solutions w.r.t. the quantity of information they convey by recurring to the notion of entropy and discuss a possible approach towards computing the entropy w.r.t. an ABox.
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive function. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms for those who already suffer from conditions like anxiety and depression.
The Puerto Rico Aqueducts and Sewer Authority (PRASA) commissioned the Hydrologic & Hydraulic Unit of the CSA Group/CH2MHILL Joint Venture, to study and evaluate the water availability of the Dos Bocas and Caonillas Reservoir in series systems, and to develop an Optimization Plan to maximize their utilization for multiple functions such as generation of electrical power, production of potable water, navigation/transportation, and recreation, without impacting the aquatic ecosystem of the Rio Grande de Arecibo where the system are located. As Part of this study, the feasibility of several possible modifications to the operation of the reservoirs were evaluated based on operational costs, reliability of the water supply, and the generation of hydroelectric energy from the Dos Bocas and Caonillas I hydroelectric plants.
Neural networks are mathematical models inspired by biological neural networks. They are useful for pattern recognition and data classification through a learning process of adjusting synaptic connections between neurons. A neural network maps input nodes to output nodes through an arbitrary number of hidden nodes. It is trained by presenting examples to adjust weights using methods like backpropagation to minimize error between actual and predicted outputs. Neural networks have advantages like noise tolerance and not requiring assumptions about data distributions. They have applications in finance, marketing, and other fields, though designing optimal network topology can be challenging.
This document discusses the importance of logic and reasoning. It provides examples of arguments with good and poor logic. A good argument builds logic step-by-step to connect reasons and convince the reader, while a poor argument is missing connections between ideas. The document encourages developing strong logical reasoning and considering if additional reasons can strengthen an argument without stating obvious connections.
Logic-Based Representation, Reasoning and Machine Learning for Event RecognitionAlexanderArtikis
The document discusses event recognition from low-level input events to determine high-level events. It provides medical, whale song recognition and public surveillance examples. Event recognition can determine events like cardiac arrhythmias, whale songs or behaviors like fighting. It uses temporal, logical and spatial constraints on events. Other applications discussed are computer networks, financial transactions and emergency operations.
The document discusses description logics (DL), which are formal logic-based knowledge representation languages used to represent knowledge in terms of concepts, roles, and individuals. It covers the semantics of DL, basic tableau algorithms for reasoning, and more advanced tableau algorithms for more expressive DL languages. The key points are:
- DL allows knowledge to be represented through concepts, roles, and individuals. Tableau algorithms are commonly used for reasoning.
- The semantics of DL are defined using interpretations over a domain. Tableau algorithms work by trying to construct an interpretation that satisfies a concept.
- Basic tableau algorithms expand concept descriptions into a tableau using rules until a clash is found, proving unsatisfiability, or no
This document discusses reasoning in algebra and geometry. It provides examples of solving equations with justifications for each step. Example 1 solves the equation 4m - 8 = -12. Example 2 solves the application problem of converting between Celsius and Fahrenheit. Example 3 solves an equation involving geometry segment lengths. Example 4 identifies properties of equality and congruence that justify statements. The document emphasizes writing justifications for each step in solving equations and identifying properties. It notes that geometry uses similar properties of equality as algebra.
Natural Language Processing: L03 maths fornlpananth
This presentation discusses probability theory basics, Naive Bayes Classifier with some practical examples. This also introduces graph models for representing joint probability distributions.
HC-4016, Heterogeneous Implementation of Neural Network Algorithms, by Dmitri...AMD Developer Central
Presentation HC-4016, Heterogeneous Implementation of Neural Network Algorithms, by Dmitri Yudanov and Leon Reznik at the AMD Developer Summit (APU13) November 11-13, 2013.
Direct use of hydroclimatic information for reservoir operationAndrea Castelletti
Direct use of hydroclimatic information for reservoir operation - Plenary Talk at the Conference "From operational hydrological forecast to reservoir management optimization" Québec City, Québec, Canadahttp://acrhrta2014.ouranos.ca/program.html
Geometry 1.1 patterns and inductive reasoningkca1528
This document discusses inductive reasoning and pattern recognition. It provides examples of how observing patterns in areas like weather, geometry, and numbers can help make predictions. Readers are encouraged to look for patterns, make conjectures based on the patterns, and verify their conjectures to determine if they are true or false, sometimes using counterexamples. The document aims to teach inductive reasoning skills through examples of visual and numeric patterns.
Measurement of economic value of environmentSharon Kour
This document discusses methods for valuing the environment economically. It begins by defining economics and environmental valuation. Indirect methods like the hedonic pricing method and travel cost method are revealed preference approaches that observe real market choices. Direct methods like contingent valuation ask people how much an environmental good is worth. The document explains each method in detail and their applications and limitations. It concludes that environmental valuation is important for natural resource management by accounting for the total economic value of ecosystems.
IJERD (www.ijerd.com) International Journal of Engineering Research and Devel...IJERD Editor
1. The document summarizes a study that investigated awareness of renewable energy technology education in Adamawa and Taraba States of northeast Nigeria. A total of 360 questionnaires were administered across 12 local government areas, with respondents aged 18-50.
2. The results revealed that 67% of respondents in both states were unaware of any form of renewable energy. 54% had not shown concern for the environment previously. However, most respondents were willing to learn about and adopt renewable energy technologies.
3. The majority of respondents felt they needed more information about renewable energy, especially through radio and schools. However, over 70% thought the government should take primary responsibility for increasing renewable energy use.
Designing resilient creative communities through biomimetic service designRSD7 Symposium
This document discusses how adopting biomimetic tools in service design can increase the resilience of creative communities. It explores using nature as a model to design resilient social systems and organizations. Specifically, it examines how mapping connections between diverse interest groups within a social enterprise, like the Apano Meria organization, can create redundancy and thus more resilience, similar to ecosystems. The document concludes that a biomimetic, permaculture-inspired approach focusing on diffuse design capacity and cooperation between groups can help transition communities towards more sustainable models.
This document discusses principles and techniques for valuing the environment. It defines the different types of environmental values, including direct use, indirect use, non-use, and intrinsic values. Methods for valuing the environment are also presented, including market-based approaches like factor of production valuation and defensive expenditures, as well as non-market approaches like contingent valuation. The document provides examples and limitations of each technique.
An Economic Analysis of Green and Grey Infrastructure - TRIECA Conference 2019Robert Muir
TRIECA Conference , 2019, An Economic Analysis of Green and Grey Infrastructure Benefits and Costs, Robert J. Muir, M.A.Sc., P.Eng., Manager, Stormwater, City of Markham, Fabian Papa, M.A.Sc., MBA, P.Eng., President, FP&P HydraTek
Presentation reviews regulations on policies on infrastructure cost, provides a history of cost benefit analysis, reviews Ontario green infrastructure policy and cost considerations, identifies research gaps in cost benefit analysis, evaluates the costs and benefits of grey, green and blended grey and green infrastructure strategies considering full lifecycle costs and system-wide implementation in the City of Markham. Analysis is based on this upcoming WEAO paper https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2019/03/an-economic-analysis-of-green-v-grey.html
Compensatory Mitigation for Utility-Scale Solar Energy ProjectsBarbara Jean Neal
This document summarizes research on compensatory mitigation costs for six utility-scale solar energy projects. The research aimed to compare these costs across projects to understand the types and consistency of mitigation requirements. The results found costs were very dissimilar and inconsistent between states and projects, with no clear reasons identified. Mitigation costs did not correlate with project size or technology. More data is still needed to ensure the compensatory mitigation process is fair and properly managing land use. Continued research on mitigation costs is recommended.
Local productive systems planning tools for bioregional developmentostemi
The paper introduces to bioregion concept and describes territorial metabolic flows tools usefull to identify and evaluate strategies and appropriate actions to increase the eco‐efficiency of
local productive systems. Bioregion concept recently re‐emerged involves also better eco‐efficiency conditions by directing production and consumption flows towards locally available resources use and therefore contributing to basic resources cycles closure.
Reasoning of database consistency through description logicsAhmad karawash
The document discusses reasoning of database consistency through description logics. It begins with an introduction and overview before covering data models and description logics, description logics and database querying, data integration, and concluding. It describes how entity relationship models are used to describe database structure and how they can be transformed into description logics knowledge bases. This allows reasoning about database consistency, satisfiability, and other properties to identify issues like redundancy. Description logics are also discussed as a way to perform querying and classify queries.
2 5 reasoning in algebra and geometry (1)Mahr Rich
This document discusses reasoning in algebra and geometry. It covers:
1) Identifying and using properties of equality like addition, subtraction, multiplication, division, and properties of congruence like reflexive, symmetric, and transitive.
2) Using the distributive property to justify combining like terms.
3) Using properties of congruence to justify statements.
Default Logics for Plausible Reasoning with Controversial AxiomsRommel Carvalho
Presentation given by Thomas Scharrenbach at the 6th Uncertainty Reasoning for the Semantic Web Workshop at the 9th International Semantic Web Conference in 2010.
Paper: Default Logics for Plausible Reasoning with Controversial Axioms
Abstract: Using a variant of Lehmann's Default Logics and Probabilistic Description Logics we recently presented a framework that invalidates those unwanted inferences that cause concept unsatisfiability without the need to remove explicitly stated axioms. The solutions of this methods were shown to outperform classical ontology repair w.r.t. the number of inferences invalidated. However, conflicts may still exist in the knowledge base and can make reasoning ambiguous. Furthermore, solutions with a minimal number of inferences invalidated do not necessarily minimize the number of conflicts. In this paper we provide an overview over finding solutions that have a minimal number of conflicts while invalidating as few inferences as possible. Specifically, we propose to evaluate solutions w.r.t. the quantity of information they convey by recurring to the notion of entropy and discuss a possible approach towards computing the entropy w.r.t. an ABox.
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive function. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms for those who already suffer from conditions like anxiety and depression.
The Puerto Rico Aqueducts and Sewer Authority (PRASA) commissioned the Hydrologic & Hydraulic Unit of the CSA Group/CH2MHILL Joint Venture, to study and evaluate the water availability of the Dos Bocas and Caonillas Reservoir in series systems, and to develop an Optimization Plan to maximize their utilization for multiple functions such as generation of electrical power, production of potable water, navigation/transportation, and recreation, without impacting the aquatic ecosystem of the Rio Grande de Arecibo where the system are located. As Part of this study, the feasibility of several possible modifications to the operation of the reservoirs were evaluated based on operational costs, reliability of the water supply, and the generation of hydroelectric energy from the Dos Bocas and Caonillas I hydroelectric plants.
Neural networks are mathematical models inspired by biological neural networks. They are useful for pattern recognition and data classification through a learning process of adjusting synaptic connections between neurons. A neural network maps input nodes to output nodes through an arbitrary number of hidden nodes. It is trained by presenting examples to adjust weights using methods like backpropagation to minimize error between actual and predicted outputs. Neural networks have advantages like noise tolerance and not requiring assumptions about data distributions. They have applications in finance, marketing, and other fields, though designing optimal network topology can be challenging.
This document discusses the importance of logic and reasoning. It provides examples of arguments with good and poor logic. A good argument builds logic step-by-step to connect reasons and convince the reader, while a poor argument is missing connections between ideas. The document encourages developing strong logical reasoning and considering if additional reasons can strengthen an argument without stating obvious connections.
Logic-Based Representation, Reasoning and Machine Learning for Event RecognitionAlexanderArtikis
The document discusses event recognition from low-level input events to determine high-level events. It provides medical, whale song recognition and public surveillance examples. Event recognition can determine events like cardiac arrhythmias, whale songs or behaviors like fighting. It uses temporal, logical and spatial constraints on events. Other applications discussed are computer networks, financial transactions and emergency operations.
The document discusses description logics (DL), which are formal logic-based knowledge representation languages used to represent knowledge in terms of concepts, roles, and individuals. It covers the semantics of DL, basic tableau algorithms for reasoning, and more advanced tableau algorithms for more expressive DL languages. The key points are:
- DL allows knowledge to be represented through concepts, roles, and individuals. Tableau algorithms are commonly used for reasoning.
- The semantics of DL are defined using interpretations over a domain. Tableau algorithms work by trying to construct an interpretation that satisfies a concept.
- Basic tableau algorithms expand concept descriptions into a tableau using rules until a clash is found, proving unsatisfiability, or no
This document discusses reasoning in algebra and geometry. It provides examples of solving equations with justifications for each step. Example 1 solves the equation 4m - 8 = -12. Example 2 solves the application problem of converting between Celsius and Fahrenheit. Example 3 solves an equation involving geometry segment lengths. Example 4 identifies properties of equality and congruence that justify statements. The document emphasizes writing justifications for each step in solving equations and identifying properties. It notes that geometry uses similar properties of equality as algebra.
Natural Language Processing: L03 maths fornlpananth
This presentation discusses probability theory basics, Naive Bayes Classifier with some practical examples. This also introduces graph models for representing joint probability distributions.
HC-4016, Heterogeneous Implementation of Neural Network Algorithms, by Dmitri...AMD Developer Central
Presentation HC-4016, Heterogeneous Implementation of Neural Network Algorithms, by Dmitri Yudanov and Leon Reznik at the AMD Developer Summit (APU13) November 11-13, 2013.
Direct use of hydroclimatic information for reservoir operationAndrea Castelletti
Direct use of hydroclimatic information for reservoir operation - Plenary Talk at the Conference "From operational hydrological forecast to reservoir management optimization" Québec City, Québec, Canadahttp://acrhrta2014.ouranos.ca/program.html
Geometry 1.1 patterns and inductive reasoningkca1528
This document discusses inductive reasoning and pattern recognition. It provides examples of how observing patterns in areas like weather, geometry, and numbers can help make predictions. Readers are encouraged to look for patterns, make conjectures based on the patterns, and verify their conjectures to determine if they are true or false, sometimes using counterexamples. The document aims to teach inductive reasoning skills through examples of visual and numeric patterns.
Deep Learning For Practitioners, lecture 2: Selecting the right applications...ananth
In this presentation we articulate when deep learning techniques yield best results from a practitioner's view point. Do we apply deep learning techniques for every machine learning problem? What characteristics of an application lends itself suitable for deep learning? Does more data automatically imply better results regardless of the algorithm or model? Does "automated feature learning" obviate the need for data preprocessing and feature design?
This document provides an overview of open channel hydraulics. It begins by outlining the key concepts that will be covered, including open channel flow, basic equations like Chezy's and Manning's equations, and the concept of most economical channel sections. The document then defines open channel flow and compares it to pipe flow. It discusses various channel types and flow types in open channels. Empirical formulas for determining coefficients in the open channel flow equations are presented. Examples of applying the Manning's equation to calculate flow rate and velocity are shown. The concept of the most economical channel section is explained for rectangular and trapezoidal channel shapes.
The document discusses logic and reasoning, including valid and invalid arguments. It defines several common fallacies of reasoning such as ad hominem circumstantial, ad hominem tu quoque, appeal to belief, burden of proof, appeal to ridicule, and bandwagon. It also provides examples of each fallacy. The document then discusses the 1957 film 12 Angry Men and tasks the reader with identifying examples of fallacious reasoning in the film used to proclaim the accused boy guilty.
Neural Network Based Player Retention Prediction in Free to Play GamesAMR koura
This document discusses using neural networks to predict player retention in free-to-play games. It first reviews related work on churn prediction and player purchase modeling. The solution approach uses both classical machine learning algorithms and deep learning methods. Specifically, recurrent neural networks (RNNs) including LSTM and bidirectional LSTM models are applied to variable length time series player activity data. Dynamic bidirectional LSTM achieved the best results for predicting if a player would stop playing in the next week. Future work focuses on predicting retention over longer periods and using unsupervised pre-training and sequence-to-sequence models.
This document contains lecture notes on interest formulas including geometric series, uniform series, arithmetic gradient, geometric gradient, nominal and effective interest rates, and continuous compounding. It provides examples and explanations of formulas for present worth, future worth, and compound interest calculations for situations involving constant and increasing cash flows over time with single-rate and multiple compounding periods.
2018 National Tanks Conference & Exposition: HRSC Data VisualizationAntea Group
Two of our High-Resolution Site Characterization (HRSC) Data Visualization posters featured at the 2018 NTC Conference in Louisville, KY.
1. Using Data Management and 3-Dimensional Data Visualization to Generate More Complete Conceptual Site Models and Streamline Site Closure
2. High-Resolution Site Characterization (HRSC) and 3-Dimensional Data Visualization for a Fractured Rock Site: A Path to Streamlined Closure
A presentation about protecting clean water during construction projects. Presented by Robert Roseen of Geosyntec Consulting during the Buzzards Bay Coalition's 2014 Decision Makers Workshop series. Learn more at www.savebuzzardsbay.org/DecisionMakers
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This study uses an integrated assessment model to analyze climate policy approaches based on different ethical frameworks like utilitarianism, prioritarianism, and compromise. The model was run under multiple scenarios and the outcomes evaluated based on emissions control, costs, temperature change, and damages. The results showed that prioritarian frameworks led to steadier emissions reductions than Nordhaus or Stern, but all approaches exceeded the 2 degree warming limit. Prioritarianism presented the best balance of outcomes and aligned more with ethical considerations, but relied heavily on how damages were modeled. Further research is needed on prioritarian modeling and statistical analysis of the policy approaches.
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IEEE Aerospace and Electronic Systems Society as a Graduate Student Member
Direct Policy Conditioning for reservoir operation
1. IFAC
2014
CAPE
TOWN
-‐ZA
Matteo Giuliani1, Andrea Castelletti1,2, Patrick M. Reed3
1 Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione, e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy
2 Institute of Environmental Engineering ETH-Z, Zurich
3 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY
Modelling
and
Control
of
Water
Systems
Improving the protection of aquatic ecosystems
by dynamically constraining reservoir operation
via Direct Policy Conditioning
2. The fall of the social planner myth?
SOCIAL PLANNER’S
PARETO OPTIMAL
Stakeholder 1’s utility
Stakeholder 2’s utility
utopia
REALITY
dominated
unfeasible
3. A real world example
Anghileri, D. et al. Journal of Water Resources Planning and
Management, 139(5), 492–500, 2013
Hydropower reservoir
Penstock
Power plant
Como city
River Adda
River Adda
Legend
Lario
Lario catchment
River
Irrigated area
Kilometers
0 5 10 20 30 40 50
UNCOORDINATED CENTRALIZED
UNCOORDINATED CENTRALIZED
Lake
Como
Lake
Como
r
s 3
s 1
s 3
u 3
s 2
u 1
u 2
R2
3
(•)
R2
R1
hydropower plant
irrigated area
H2
H3
H2
H1
H3
q 2
q 1
q 3
q 2
q 1
s 1
s 2
s 3
u 2
u 3
u 1
m 1
m 2
m
(•)
(•) m (•)
u 3
(a) (b)
r
3
(•)
FIG. 3. The model scheme under uncoordinated (left) and centralized (right) 23
490’000
480’000
470’000
460’000
800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600
Irrigation deficit [m3/s]2
Hydropower revenue [euro/day]
H
b a
C4
C3
C6
CO2 CO1 UC
C5
C4
C3
C2
C1
UC
Lake
Como
Lake
Como
r
s 1
s 2
u 1
u 2
R2
R1
R2
R1
hydropower plant
irrigated area
H2
H1
H3
H2
H1
H3
q 3
q 2
q 1
q 3
q 2
q 1
s 1
s 2
s 3
u 2
u 3
u 1
m 1
m 2
m
(•)
(•) m (•)
(a) (b)
r
FIG. 3. The model scheme under uncoordinated (left) and centralized (right) man-agement.
23
UNCOORDINATED
CENTRALIZED
(SOCIAL PLANNER)
4. Efficiency vs acceptability: how to trade-off?
Giuliani M. et al., Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 2014
acceptability
efficiency
utopia
SOCIAL
PLANNER
INDIVIDUALISM
acceptability
of the
social planner
efficiency of
individualism
coordination
mechanism
design
5. Direct Policy Conditioning
an approach to condition the individualistic control policy and push it
towards a social welfare equilibrium
6. Direct Policy Conditioning
an approach to condition the individualistic control policy and push it
towards a social welfare equilibrium
PRIMARY obj.
SECONDARY obj.
utopia
SECONDARY’s
OPTIMUM
PRIMARY’s
OPTIMUM
7. Direct Policy Conditioning
COMPUTE THE SOCIAL
PLANNER POLICIES
1
PRIMARY obj.
SECONDARY obj.
utopia
SECONDARY’s
OPTIMUM
PRIMARY’s
OPTIMUM
8. Direct Policy Conditioning
GET INSIGHTS ON HOW
TO CONDITION THE
PRIMARY’S POLICY 1 2
COMPUTE THE SOCIAL
PLANNER POLICIES
PRIMARY obj.
SECONDARY obj.
utopia
SECONDARY’s
OPTIMUM
PRIMARY’s
OPTIMUM
9. GET INSIGHTS ON HOW
TO CONDITION THE
PRIMARY’S POLICY 1 2
COMPUTE THE
CONSTRAINED
PRIMARY POLICY
Direct Policy Conditioning
COMPUTE THE SOCIAL
PLANNER POLICIES
3
PRIMARY obj.
SECONDARY obj.
utopia
SECONDARY’s
OPTIMUM
PRIMARY’s
OPTIMUM
10. GET INSIGHTS ON HOW
TO CONDITION THE
PRIMARY’S POLICY
COMPUTE THE
CONSTRAINED
PRIMARY POLICY
Direct Policy Conditioning
Multi-objective
optimization using the
Direct Policy Search
approach
Policy parameters vectors
Objectives values
1 2
3
PRIMARY obj.
SECONDARY obj.
utopia
SECONDARY’s
OPTIMUM
PRIMARY’s
OPTIMUM
11. 1 2
COMPUTE THE
CONSTRAINED
PRIMARY POLICY
Direct Policy Conditioning
Multi-objective
optimization using the
Direct Policy Search
approach
Input Variable
Selection of the most
relevant parameters in
explaining the
secondary objectives
Policy parameters vectors
Objectives values
Subset of policy
parameters to
be conditioned
3
PRIMARY obj.
SECONDARY obj.
utopia
SECONDARY’s
OPTIMUM
PRIMARY’s
OPTIMUM
12. 1 2
Single-objective
optimization of the
primary objective with
restricted constraints on
the sensitive policy
parameters
Direct Policy Conditioning
Multi-objective
optimization using the
Direct Policy Search
approach
Input Variable
Selection of the most
relevant parameters in
explaining the
secondary objectives
Policy parameters vectors
Objectives values
Subset of policy
parameters to
be conditioned
3
PRIMARY obj.
SECONDARY obj.
utopia
SECONDARY’s
OPTIMUM
PRIMARY’s
OPTIMUM
14. The Susquehanna river system
(a)
(b)
atomic
power plant
Baltimore
Chester
Fishery and
boating
Conowingo
Muddy Run
Marietta facility
station
Pennsylvania
Maryland
lateral
inflow
Susquehanna River
Muddy Run
inflow
Lower
Susquehanna
River
Maryland
New York
Pennsylvania
Conowingo pond
Chester
Baltimore
(b)
Conowingo pond
Marietta facility
station
atomic
power plant
Baltimore
Muddy Run
Chester
Fishery and
boating
FERC environmental
requirements
Conowingo
hydropower plant
Pennsylvania
Maryland
lateral
inflow
Susquehanna River
Muddy Run
inflow
River
Maryland
Chester
Baltimore
15. DPC experimental setting
1
SOCIAL PLANNER POLICIES
• POLICY: Gaussian Radial Basis function with 2 inputs (level & time) + 4
output (release outputs) + 4 basis functions: 32 parameters
• OPTIMIZATION: Borg MOEA parameterized as in Hadka and Reed [2013]
• NFE = 1,000,000 per replica
• 30 replications to avoid dependence on randomness
1
17. DPC experimental setting
SOCIAL PLANNER POLICIES
• POLICY: Gaussian Radial Basis function with 2 inputs (level & time) + 4
output (release outputs) + 4 basis functions: 32 parameters
• OPTIMIZATION: Borg MOEA parameterized as in Hadka and Reed [2013]
• NFE = 1,000,000 per replica
• 30 replications to avoid dependence on randomness
INPUT VARIABLE SELECTION
• Tree based iterative input selection [Galelli and Castelletti, 2013]
1
2
18. Input Variable Selection
(a) Selected features and corresponding contribution in explaining
the Environment objective
75
50
25
0
explained variance
2 ct 3
b 3 t 4
t 2
bw4
t 1 bbt 3
w4
4
w4
(b) Decision variables selected on the Pareto-optimal set 1
0.5
variable
x1
x2
x3
u1
Gaussian Radial Basis Function
[Giuliani et al. 2014]
b = Basis radius
c = Basis centre
w = Network weights
60% explained
variance
19. Input Variable Selection
parameter value
Reference p.: the best for the environment
Lower bound p. : current situation
20. DPC experimental setting
SOCIAL PLANNER POLICIES
• POLICY: Gaussian Radial Basis function with 2 inputs (level & time) + 4
output (release outputs) + 4 basis functions: 32 parameters
• OPTIMIZATION: Borg MOEA parameterized as in Hadka and Reed [2013]
• NFE = 1,000,000 per replica
• 30 replications to avoid dependence on randomness
INPUT VARIABLE SELECTION
• Tree based iterative input selection [Galelli and Castelletti, 2013]
CONSTRAINED PRIMARY POLICY
• Baseline policy with constraints on 8 policy parameters
• Default Borg MOEA parameterization [Hadka and Reed 2013]
• NFE = 100,000 per replication
• 30 replications to avoid dependence on randomness
• Historical horizon 1999 (drought)
1
2
3
23. Conclusions
§ Direct Policy Conditioning as a coordination mechanism design
§ Preliminary results seem to be interesting in terms of improved
perfomance of current operation in the Susquehanna rb
§ Weakness in the physical interpretation of the parameters: how to
communicate the conditioning to the dam operator?
§ Sensitivity to the conditioning setting
25. Programmed event supported by the TC
EGU General Assembly, Vienna 12 April—17 April 2015
EGU General Assembly
The EGU General Assembly 2015 will bring together
geoscientists from all over the world into one meet-ing
covering all disciplines of the Earth, Planetary and
Space Sciences. Especially for young scientists the
EGU aims to provide a forum to present their work
and discuss their ideas with experts in all fields of
geosciences.
In the divisions Energy, Resources and the Environ-ment
(ERE) and Hydrological Sciences (HS) the fol-lowing
sessions are proposed:
• Design and Operation of Combined Hydro/Wind/Solar
Power Generation Systems: Computer Based Control
and Optimization;
• Design and Operation of Water Resource Systems:
Computer Based Control and Optimization.
Motivation
Many environmental systems have been modified and
are still being modified by human intervention. This
intervention usually takes the form of the construction
of additions to the system intended to change system
behaviour to better serve the needs of society.
This implies that these systems and their behaviour
are being designed. They are no longer governed by
natural processes alone. Therefore models of both the
natural and the artificial part of the system will be
needed. As the demands placed on water systems by
society increase and are increasingly in conflict with
each other, it will become harder to define goals for
the modification of these systems and their behaviour.
It will also become harder to design systems and oper-ating
rules to satisfy these goals.
The aim of these sessions is to bring together experts
in the fields of water management, hydro-, solar-, and
wind-power, control theory and operations research to
discuss novel methods or novel ways of using tradi-tional
methods to define and implement desired beha-viour
for environmental systems.
Design and Operation of Water Resource
Systems: Computer Based Control and
Optimization
For control theory water systems pose some unique
challenges because of the presence of large delays and
very limited means of control. In fact for some sys-tems
the limits on the size of the change that can be
effected in a given time period necessitate the use of
forecasts to anticipate on system behaviour. For oper-ations
research the special challenge is the presence of
incommensurable and conflicting optimization targets,
the complex network of relations between stakeholders
and the lack of one clear shared motivation amongst
stakeholders. Moreover, a new awareness of more vari-ability
in the climate on longer time scales and rapid
social changes both pose new challenges for the decision
making process. This implies a need for more frequent
reconsideration of decisions and a shorter time scale for
the decision process. This process will therefore need
faster models, for instance simplified dynamic models
of hydrological systems, statistical process emulators,
surrogate models (e.g. linear or nonlinear regression)
based on data to feed faster optimization algorithms.
Currently the following people and institutions are in-volved
in the preparation of this session:
• Niels Schütze, Dresden University of Technology,
Germany;
• Andrea Castelletti, Politecnico di Milano, Italy;
• Francesca Pianosi, University of Bristol, United
Kingdom;
• Renata Romanowicz, Institute of Geophysics,
Polish Academy of Sciences, Warszawa;
• Ronald van Nooijen and Alla Kolechkina, Delft
University of Technology, Netherlands.
Design and Operation of Combined Hy-dro/
Wind/Solar Power Generation Sys-tems:
Computer Based Control and Op-timization
In most locations the yield of wind power or solar power
is uncertain. Hydropower seems an attractive means of
providing backup power and storage of energy for fu-ture
use. Combined schemes seem attractive, but will
need automatic control to optimize their yield. Un-certainty
about yield and future supply and demand
is a key issue for the management of these combined
schemes. They may also need special facilities for in-tegration
in the current energy distribution infrastruc-ture.
Currently the following people and institutions are in-volved
in the preparation of this session:
• Demetris Koutsoyiannis and Andreas Efstra-tiadis,
National Technical University of Athens,
Greece;
• Andrea Castelletti, Politecnico di Milano, Italy;
• Burlando Paolo, ETH Zürich, Zwitzerland;
• Patrick Michael Reed, Cornell University, USA;
• Alla Kolechkina and Ronald van Nooijen, Delft
University of Technology, Netherlands.
Key dates
• Call for papers for EGU 2015: 15 October 2014
• Deadline for receipt of abstracts: 7 January 2015
• Letter of acceptance to key authors: 23 January
2015
• Conference: 12 April to 17 April 2015 in Vienna,
Austria
26. Programmed event supported by the TC
26th IUGG General Assembly 2015, Earth and Environmental Sciences for Future Generations
Prague, Czech Republic June 22 - July 2, 2015
IAHS Workshop Hw07
Announcement
At the 26th IUGG General Assembly in
Prague in 2015 there will be an IAHS work-shop
on Control of Water Resource Systems
Hw07. The workshop is being organized under
the auspices of the International Commission
on Water Resources Systems (ICWRS).
Motivation
Today it is rare to find a water resource sys-tem
where the interaction with society can be
ignored. Most systems consist of both nat-ural
and manmade components and are gov-erned
by both natural processes and processes
within society. The interaction between soci-ety
and the natural system is complex. An
important part of this interaction consists of
our attempts as humans to alter the system
behaviour through the construction and ma-nipulation
of structures such as wells, dams,
pumps, weirs, gates, sluices and locks. In
a changing world it can no longer be taken
for granted that the operational rules for the
manipulation of the manmade components of
the water resource system will be appropriate
over the whole life time of the infrastructure.
This workshop is intended for presentations on
the formulation and adaptation of operational
rules for the automated manipulation of man-made
components of water resource systems
with changing boundary conditions, or, less
formally, for presentations on computer con-trol
of water resource systems in a world in
flux.
Convener team
Currently the following people and institu-tions
are involved in the preparation of this
session.
• Alla Kolechkina, Delft University of
Technology, Netherlands
• Ronald van Nooijen, Delft University of
Technology, Netherlands
• Andrea Castelletti, Politecnico di Mil-ano,
Italy;
26th General Assembly of the Inter-national
Union of Geodesy and Geo-physics
(IUGG)
A better understanding of the way in which
our planet functions and of the effects of our
actions on its behaviour is needed to provide
for the needs of future generations.
This Scientific Assembly to be held in Prague
from 22 June to 2 July 2015 will provide an
opportunity for scientists from all geophysical
disciplines and from all countries to meet and
exchange knowledge and ideas. The Assembly
also will also give the participants the oppor-tunity
to inform the general public and policy
makers.
Key dates for this workshop
• Abstract submission open: September
2014
• Deadline for receipt of workshop ab-stracts:
31 January 2015
• Early bird registration deadline : 10
April 2015
• Standard fee registration deadline : 15
June 2015
• Conference: 22 June to 2 July in Prague,
Czech Republic