Alcatel-Lucent is a global telecommunications company headquartered in Paris. The document provides an overview of Alcatel-Lucent, including its vision, mission, capabilities, customers, and presence in Eastern Europe. Alcatel-Lucent aims to deliver innovation to help customers stay ahead and move at the speed of ideas. It has capabilities in consulting, design, integration, deployment, operation, and maintenance for complex telecommunications projects. The company also has a large presence and capabilities in Eastern Europe to serve customers in the region.
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive function. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms.
Why is the Moldovan ICT Sector Attractive for your investment?ADR Nord
The document discusses why Moldova's ICT sector is attractive for investment. It has a young, multilingual workforce with high education levels and low wages. Moldova has competitive investment incentives including a 12% corporate tax rate. It has access to both EU and CIS growth markets. The government has an FDI attraction team and aims to increase internet, mobile, and broadband penetration approaching EU levels. Opportunities exist in areas like digital switchover, cloud/data centers, logistics/applications, and seeding/ventures. The government's ICT strategy focuses on education, market development, infrastructure, and investment to stimulate the ICT sector.
This document summarizes the key points from the Financial Stability Review. It notes that while economic activity has reduced uncertainty in international markets, recovery has been slower in some eurozone countries due to high debt and weak banking sectors. A high household debt burden and rapidly rising real estate prices pose major risks to stability in Sweden and Norway. Estonian companies have not been affected by the economic slowdown, but risks remain from a weak eurozone economy and potential fall in Nordic real estate prices. Maintaining a 10% minimum capital requirement is important for the resilience of Estonia's banking sector.
Alcatel-Lucent is a global telecommunications company headquartered in Paris. The document provides an overview of Alcatel-Lucent, including its vision, mission, capabilities, customers, and presence in Eastern Europe. Alcatel-Lucent aims to deliver innovation to help customers stay ahead and move at the speed of ideas. It has capabilities in consulting, design, integration, deployment, operation, and maintenance for complex telecommunications projects. The company also has a large presence and capabilities in Eastern Europe to serve customers in the region.
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive function. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms.
Why is the Moldovan ICT Sector Attractive for your investment?ADR Nord
The document discusses why Moldova's ICT sector is attractive for investment. It has a young, multilingual workforce with high education levels and low wages. Moldova has competitive investment incentives including a 12% corporate tax rate. It has access to both EU and CIS growth markets. The government has an FDI attraction team and aims to increase internet, mobile, and broadband penetration approaching EU levels. Opportunities exist in areas like digital switchover, cloud/data centers, logistics/applications, and seeding/ventures. The government's ICT strategy focuses on education, market development, infrastructure, and investment to stimulate the ICT sector.
This document summarizes the key points from the Financial Stability Review. It notes that while economic activity has reduced uncertainty in international markets, recovery has been slower in some eurozone countries due to high debt and weak banking sectors. A high household debt burden and rapidly rising real estate prices pose major risks to stability in Sweden and Norway. Estonian companies have not been affected by the economic slowdown, but risks remain from a weak eurozone economy and potential fall in Nordic real estate prices. Maintaining a 10% minimum capital requirement is important for the resilience of Estonia's banking sector.
Catherine Fuss (National Bank of Belgium). Firm dynamics and employment adjus...Eesti Pank
The document analyzes employment dynamics at multinational firms (MNFs) and domestic firms during the crisis. It finds that while both contributed to job losses, domestic firms primarily reduced employment through firm exits, cutting over 29,000 jobs. Meanwhile, MNFs reduced employment mainly through downsizing by incumbent firms, shedding over 36,000 jobs. The document examines whether MNFs exhibit greater employment volatility than domestic firms due to easier international reallocation and a "home bias" during difficult times.
Ardo Hansson. Economic Adjustment in the Baltic countriesEesti Pank
The document compares economic adjustment in the Baltic countries to other countries during previous recessions and to other small euro-area countries during the 2007-2009 crisis. It finds that while the Baltic countries' adjustment was similar to patterns in emerging markets, the degree of volatility and changes in domestic demand and external vulnerabilities were unusually high compared to past recessions. However, fiscal and competitiveness indicators did not exhibit high volatility. Compared to Greece, Ireland and Portugal, the Baltic countries experienced larger declines in GDP during the crisis but have seen a faster recovery, though unemployment remains higher than in the other countries.
Sarah Brown. Portfolio Allocation, Background Risk and Households’ Flight to ...Eesti Pank
This document describes a fractional ordered probit (DFOP) model to analyze how background risks affect households' allocation of financial assets into risky and safe asset classes. The model accounts for the fact that background risks like labor income volatility should cause households to "deflate" or reduce their holdings of risky assets. It models the expected share of a household's portfolio allocated to high, medium, and low risk asset classes based on observed characteristics and two background risk equations representing the propensity to move away from high and medium risk assets. The model is estimated on US Survey of Consumer Finances data from 1998-2013 to investigate how different types of uncertainty influence household portfolio composition.
Avalik loeng. Eesti Panga majandusprognoosi tutvustus 13. juunil 2013Eesti Pank
Majanduspoliitika ja -prognoosi allosakonna juhataja Rasmus Kattai tutvustas Eesti Panga vastvalminud majandusprognoosi ja andis ülevaate Eesti majanduse viimase aja arengust.
Eesti Pank koostab Eesti majanduse prognoosi kaks korda aastas. Prognoos valmib koostöös EKPga ning on ühtlasi ka sisendiks euroala majandusprognoosile. Ettekanne põhineb 12. juunil avaldataval väljaandel Rahapoliitika ja Majandus. Prognoos hõlmab ettevaadet kuni 2015. aastani.
Harri Turunen. Government spending in a volatile economy at the zero lower boundEesti Pank
1) Government spending multipliers are generally small when the economy is not at the zero lower bound (ZLB), and are increased only slightly by higher uncertainty. 2) When the economy is at the ZLB due to large negative shocks to bond returns or discount rates, multipliers can be substantially above one and increase further with higher spending or productivity volatility. 3) Different types of shocks can drive the economy to the ZLB, but bond return and monetary policy shocks are the primary drivers, while productivity shocks yield relatively small multipliers.
Eesti konkurentsivõime ülevaate tutvustus. Avalik loeng.Eesti Pank
Eesti Panga ökonomistid Natalja Viilmann ja Jaanika Meriküll tutvustavad Eesti majanduse konkurentsivõime ülevaadet.
Eesti majanduse konkurentsivõime analüüs valmib kord aastas. 06.03.2014
Apostolos Thomadakis. Determinants of Credit Constrained Firms: Evidence from...Eesti Pank
This document summarizes a study on determinants of credit constrained firms in Central and Eastern Europe. It outlines the motivation, literature review, data sources, and empirical results. The study aims to isolate firm-level credit demand from supply, examine how banking competition and credit information sharing impact access to finance, and analyze heterogeneity across countries and years. Key findings include that loan needed firms and credit constrained firms decreased from 2008-2009 to 2012-2014 in most countries, and the impact of banking competition on access to finance depends on whether the market power or information hypothesis dominates.
Keskpanga ökonomist Natalja Viilmann tutvustab Eesti majanduse konkurentsivõime ülevaadet.
Ülevaates analüüsitakse Eesti ekspordivõimet, suhtelise tootlikkuse kasvu ja vaadeldakse rahvusvahelistel turgudel hakkamasaamist iseloomustavaid näitajaid, mis põhinevad siinsete hindade ja palkade dünaamika võrdlusel Eesti peamiste kaubanduspartneritega. Analüüs Eesti majanduse konkurentsivõime kohta valmib kord aastas.
Madis Müller. Estonian financial sector – recent developments and the changin...Eesti Pank
The document summarizes recent developments in Estonia's financial sector and the changing role of Eesti Pank (the central bank of Estonia). It notes that Estonia's banking sector is dominated by Nordic banks and that credit growth is slowing while the real estate market is recovering. It discusses Eesti Pank taking on new responsibilities for macroprudential supervision and the implications of the new Single Supervisory Mechanism for oversight of Nordic bank subsidiaries in Estonia. Close cooperation will be needed between Nordic and Baltic authorities and the European Central Bank as financial supervision responsibilities are merged.
This document summarizes the key topics of the Estonian financial sector stability review for spring 2013. It finds that while tensions in financial markets have eased, risks remain from the weak euro area economy. Estonia's banking sector remains stable due to balanced economic growth, strong bank capitalization, and a decline in the loan to deposit ratio. However, the main risks to Estonian financial stability come from uncertainty in the external environment and European banks' vulnerability due to the poor euro area economy. Ongoing European reforms, conservative banking practices, and regional cooperation are important to maintain stability.
Catherine Fuss (National Bank of Belgium). Firm dynamics and employment adjus...Eesti Pank
The document analyzes employment dynamics at multinational firms (MNFs) and domestic firms during the crisis. It finds that while both contributed to job losses, domestic firms primarily reduced employment through firm exits, cutting over 29,000 jobs. Meanwhile, MNFs reduced employment mainly through downsizing by incumbent firms, shedding over 36,000 jobs. The document examines whether MNFs exhibit greater employment volatility than domestic firms due to easier international reallocation and a "home bias" during difficult times.
Ardo Hansson. Economic Adjustment in the Baltic countriesEesti Pank
The document compares economic adjustment in the Baltic countries to other countries during previous recessions and to other small euro-area countries during the 2007-2009 crisis. It finds that while the Baltic countries' adjustment was similar to patterns in emerging markets, the degree of volatility and changes in domestic demand and external vulnerabilities were unusually high compared to past recessions. However, fiscal and competitiveness indicators did not exhibit high volatility. Compared to Greece, Ireland and Portugal, the Baltic countries experienced larger declines in GDP during the crisis but have seen a faster recovery, though unemployment remains higher than in the other countries.
Sarah Brown. Portfolio Allocation, Background Risk and Households’ Flight to ...Eesti Pank
This document describes a fractional ordered probit (DFOP) model to analyze how background risks affect households' allocation of financial assets into risky and safe asset classes. The model accounts for the fact that background risks like labor income volatility should cause households to "deflate" or reduce their holdings of risky assets. It models the expected share of a household's portfolio allocated to high, medium, and low risk asset classes based on observed characteristics and two background risk equations representing the propensity to move away from high and medium risk assets. The model is estimated on US Survey of Consumer Finances data from 1998-2013 to investigate how different types of uncertainty influence household portfolio composition.
Avalik loeng. Eesti Panga majandusprognoosi tutvustus 13. juunil 2013Eesti Pank
Majanduspoliitika ja -prognoosi allosakonna juhataja Rasmus Kattai tutvustas Eesti Panga vastvalminud majandusprognoosi ja andis ülevaate Eesti majanduse viimase aja arengust.
Eesti Pank koostab Eesti majanduse prognoosi kaks korda aastas. Prognoos valmib koostöös EKPga ning on ühtlasi ka sisendiks euroala majandusprognoosile. Ettekanne põhineb 12. juunil avaldataval väljaandel Rahapoliitika ja Majandus. Prognoos hõlmab ettevaadet kuni 2015. aastani.
Harri Turunen. Government spending in a volatile economy at the zero lower boundEesti Pank
1) Government spending multipliers are generally small when the economy is not at the zero lower bound (ZLB), and are increased only slightly by higher uncertainty. 2) When the economy is at the ZLB due to large negative shocks to bond returns or discount rates, multipliers can be substantially above one and increase further with higher spending or productivity volatility. 3) Different types of shocks can drive the economy to the ZLB, but bond return and monetary policy shocks are the primary drivers, while productivity shocks yield relatively small multipliers.
Eesti konkurentsivõime ülevaate tutvustus. Avalik loeng.Eesti Pank
Eesti Panga ökonomistid Natalja Viilmann ja Jaanika Meriküll tutvustavad Eesti majanduse konkurentsivõime ülevaadet.
Eesti majanduse konkurentsivõime analüüs valmib kord aastas. 06.03.2014
Apostolos Thomadakis. Determinants of Credit Constrained Firms: Evidence from...Eesti Pank
This document summarizes a study on determinants of credit constrained firms in Central and Eastern Europe. It outlines the motivation, literature review, data sources, and empirical results. The study aims to isolate firm-level credit demand from supply, examine how banking competition and credit information sharing impact access to finance, and analyze heterogeneity across countries and years. Key findings include that loan needed firms and credit constrained firms decreased from 2008-2009 to 2012-2014 in most countries, and the impact of banking competition on access to finance depends on whether the market power or information hypothesis dominates.
Keskpanga ökonomist Natalja Viilmann tutvustab Eesti majanduse konkurentsivõime ülevaadet.
Ülevaates analüüsitakse Eesti ekspordivõimet, suhtelise tootlikkuse kasvu ja vaadeldakse rahvusvahelistel turgudel hakkamasaamist iseloomustavaid näitajaid, mis põhinevad siinsete hindade ja palkade dünaamika võrdlusel Eesti peamiste kaubanduspartneritega. Analüüs Eesti majanduse konkurentsivõime kohta valmib kord aastas.
Madis Müller. Estonian financial sector – recent developments and the changin...Eesti Pank
The document summarizes recent developments in Estonia's financial sector and the changing role of Eesti Pank (the central bank of Estonia). It notes that Estonia's banking sector is dominated by Nordic banks and that credit growth is slowing while the real estate market is recovering. It discusses Eesti Pank taking on new responsibilities for macroprudential supervision and the implications of the new Single Supervisory Mechanism for oversight of Nordic bank subsidiaries in Estonia. Close cooperation will be needed between Nordic and Baltic authorities and the European Central Bank as financial supervision responsibilities are merged.
This document summarizes the key topics of the Estonian financial sector stability review for spring 2013. It finds that while tensions in financial markets have eased, risks remain from the weak euro area economy. Estonia's banking sector remains stable due to balanced economic growth, strong bank capitalization, and a decline in the loan to deposit ratio. However, the main risks to Estonian financial stability come from uncertainty in the external environment and European banks' vulnerability due to the poor euro area economy. Ongoing European reforms, conservative banking practices, and regional cooperation are important to maintain stability.
Eesti Panga president Madis Müller ja finantsstabiilsuse osakonna juhataja Jaak Tõrs tutvustasid kõigile majandushuvilistele äsja valminud Eesti finantssektori ülevaadet.
Karsten Staehr. Macroeconomic News and Sovereign Interest Rate Spreads before...Eesti Pank
1. The document analyzes how the effect of macroeconomic news on Italian sovereign interest rate spreads changed before and during the ECB's quantitative easing program from 2014-2022.
2. It finds that macroeconomic news had a significant effect on spreads before QE, with a coefficient of around -4, whereas the effect during QE was near zero, with the difference being statistically significant.
3. The results were robust to different specifications and definitions of news shocks. This suggests that QE helped insulate sovereign bond spreads from the impact of macroeconomic news by removing tail risks and "killing normal market reactions to news."
Majanduse Rahastamise Ülevaade. Veebruar 2023Eesti Pank
22.02.2023 Eesti Panga ökonomistid Taavi Raudsaar ja Mari Tamm tutvustasid äsja valminud Majanduse Rahastamise Ülevaadet ehk millised on Eesti majapidamiste ja ettevõtete rahastamisvõimalused.
The Sufficiency of Debt Relief as a Panacea to Sovereign Debt Crisis in Sub-S...Eesti Pank
The thesis analyzes the efficacy of debt relief as a solution to sovereign debt crises in Sub-Saharan Africa, using Ghana, Nigeria, and Zambia as case studies. It conducts debt sustainability analyses under various scenarios of partial or full debt reduction, cancellation, and standstills. Structural impulse response analyses show how macroeconomic factors like growth, interest rates, and exchange rates impact debt levels over time. The results suggest that debt relief can reduce debt burdens but economic reforms are also needed for long-term sustainability. Limitations include low frequency data and lower assumed interest rates.
Luck and skill in the performance of global equity funds in Central and Easte...Eesti Pank
The document summarizes a study examining the performance of actively managed global equity funds in Central and Eastern Europe between 2005-2019. The study uses a bootstrap methodology to separate fund manager skill from luck. Key findings include:
- Approximately 5% of funds showed skill in outperforming their benchmarks gross of fees, with one fund in particular outperforming factor returns net and gross of fees.
- Most funds that underperformed did so due to lack of skill rather than bad luck.
- Fees were too high relative to the abnormal performance added by many mutual funds.
- While some fund managers possessed skill, it was generally not enough to cover their fees, suggesting fees may be too high or competition
The document summarizes a study examining how Lithuanian food manufacturing firms adjusted to trade sanctions imposed by Russia in 2014 that banned many agricultural imports from the EU.
The main adjustments included:
- Reducing part-time employment as the most flexible margin of adjustment. Larger reductions occurred for firms more exposed to the Russian market.
- Increasing exports to other countries to compensate for lost Russian exports. More exposed firms increased other exports more.
- Decreasing investment and full-time employment for more exposed firms, though full-time employment adjustments took longer.
A conceptual framework is presented predicting this sequence of adjustments, with part-time labor adjusting first due to lower costs, followed by exports, investment,
The document provides an economic forecast for Estonia from 2022-2025. It finds that high inflation and energy prices are hurting the global and European economies. Inflation in Estonia is projected to remain high in 2023 before slowly falling in 2024-2025. Interest rates are also expected to continue rising to curb inflation. Fiscal policy measures risk exacerbating inflation. Overall the Estonian economy is forecast to recover by late 2023 but high costs and uncertainty will continue weighing on growth.
Fabio Canovaand Evi Pappa. Costly disasters, energy consumption, and the role...Eesti Pank
Neljapäeval, 20. oktoobril 2022 toimus Eesti Panga avatud seminar, kus rahvusvaheliselt tunnustatud majandusteadlane Fabio Canova tutvustas koos Evi Pappaga valminud uurimustööd „Kulukad looduskatastroofid, energiatarbimine ning eelarvepoliitika“ (Costly disasters, energy consumption, and the role of fiscal policy).
Romain Duval. IMF Regional Economic Outlook for EuropeEesti Pank
31. oktoobril 2022 toimus Eesti Panga avatud seminar, kus Rahvusvahelise Valuutafondi esindaja Romain A. Duval tutvustas IMFi Euroopa osakonnas vastvalminud regionaalset majandusväljavaadet.
Pressikonverents Eesti Pangas, kus keskpanga president Madis Müller ja finantsstabiilsuse osakonna juhataja Jaak Tõrs tutvustavad ülevaadet, mis analüüsib suuremaid riske Eesti finantssektoris.
Pressikonverentsil saab teada:
kuidas majanduse jahenemine, kiire hinnakasv ja intresside tõus mõjutavad inimeste ja ettevõtete võimet laene tagasi maksta
milline mõju saab majanduse jahenemisel olema uute laenude andmisel ettevõtetele ja inimestele
kuidas mõjutavad võlakirjaturgudel toimuvad muutused Eesti pangandussektori rahastamist
milliseid samme tuleb keskpanga hinnangul astuda finantssektori tugevuse kindlustamiseks.
2. Teemad
A. Võrdlus majanduse kohandumisega teistes riikides
varasemate kriisiepisoodide eel ning ajal
B. Hiljutine kriisiperiood: majanduse kohandumine Balti riikides
võrdluses kolme euroala riigiga (Iirimaa, Kreeka ja Portugal)
C. Kiire või aeglane kohandumine: eelised ja puudused
3. A. Võrdlus majanduse kohandumisega teistes riikides
varasemate kriisiepisoodide eel ning ajal
4. A. Balti riikide majanduse kohandumine
rahvusvahelises võrdluses:
metoodika ja andmed
Majandustsükli tipp kvartaalsete andmete alusel on kvartal, mil kvartaalse SKP
tase on kõrgeim (kvartaalne SKP on kõrgem nii kahe eelneva kvartali SKPst kui
ka kahe järgneva kvartali SKPst).
Majandustsükli põhi kvartaalsete andmete alusel on kvartal, mil kvartaalse SKP
tase on madalaim (kvartaalne SKP on madalam nii kahe eelneva kvartali SKPst
kui ka kahe järgneva kvartali SKPst).
Valim: 23 arenenud majandusega riigi ning 18 areneva majandusega riigi näitajad.
Andmed: 1960 I kv – 2012 II kv, sesoonselt silutud, püsihindades.
Allikas: IMF IFS andmebaas.
Näitajad: (1) SKP;
(2) väliskapitali netosissevool;
(3) reaalintressimäär;
(4) THI-põhine reaalne vahetuskurss.
Kokku 188 majanduslanguse episoodi.
Keskendume arengusuundumustele neli aastat enne ja kolm aastat pärast SKP
kõrgeimat taset.
5. A. Balti riikide hiljutise kriisiepisoodi võrdlus
teiste riikide varasemate
kriisiperioodidega: reaalne SKP
A. SKP dünaamika neli aastat enne SKP B. SKP dünaamika kolm aastat pärast
kõrgeimat taset (t-15=100) SKP kõrgeimat taset (t0=100)
5
6. A. Balti riikide hiljutise kriisiepisoodi
võrdlus teiste riikide varasemate
kriisiperioodidega: väliskapitali
netosissevool
A. Väliskapitali netovood neli aastat B. Väliskapitali netovood kolm aastat
enne SKP kõrgeimat taset (% SKPst) pärast SKP kõrgeimat taset (% SKPst)
6
7. A. Balti riikide hiljutise kriisiepisoodi võrdlus
teiste riikide varasemate
kriisiperioodidega: reaalintressimäär
A. Reaalintressimäär neli aastat enne SKP B. Reaalintressimäär kolm aastat
kõrgeimat taset (%) pärast SKP kõrgeimat taset (%)
7
8. A. Balti riikide hiljutise kriisiepisoodi võrdlus
teiste riikide varasemate kriisiperioodidega:
hinna-alane konkurentsivõime
A. Reaalse efektiivse vahetuskursi B. Reaalse efektiivse vahetuskursi
dünaamika neli aastat enne SKP kõrgeimat dünaamika kolm aastat pärast kõrgeimat
taset (t-15=100) SKP taset (t0=100)
8
9. A. Balti riikide majanduse kohandumine
rahvusvahelises võrdluses: kokkuvõte
Balti riikide majandustsüklid on sarnased areneva majandusega riikide
majandustsüklitega.
Areneva majandusega riikide majandustsüklitele on iseloomulik:
(1) makromajanduslike näitajate suured muutused;
(2) kapitali sissevoolu äkilised lõppemised;
(3) tarbimise kõrgem volatiilsus võrreldes kogutoodangu volatiilsusega;
(4) kaubandusbilansi vastutsükliline liikumine;
(5) reaalintressimäärade vastutsükliline liikumine.
Sarnased muutused leidsid aset ka Balti riikides.
Võrreldes varasemate majanduslanguse perioodidega eristuvad Balti riigid:
1) enamike majandusnäitajate ebatavaliselt kõrge volatiilsuse poolest;
2) suurte muutuste poolest sisenõudluses ning suure välis- ja finantssektori
haavatavuse poolest.
Seevastu eelarve- ja konkurentsivõime näitajate puhul kõrget volatiilsust ei ilmnenud.
9
10. B. Hiljutine kriisiperiood: majanduse kohandumine Balti
riikides võrdluses Kreeka, Iirimaa ja Portugaliga
10
11. B. SKP muutus alates 2007. aastast
valitud Euroopa Liidu liikmesriikides
Muutus SKP tasemes Muutus SKP tasemes SKP tase 2012 Q4
majandustsükli tipust (perioodil majandustsükli tipust (perioodil (2000=100)
2007-08) majandustsükli põhjani 2007-08) praeguse SKP tasemeni
(perioodil 2008-12) (2012 Q4)
Soome -10,5% -5,0% 120,9
Eesti -19,6% -3,8% 161,7
Läti -24,6% -12,2% 162,3
Leedu -15,9% -4,7% 170,1
Kreeka -21,9% -21,9% 106,0
Portugal -8,3% -8,3% 100
Iirimaa -10,7% -7,8% 133,3
Küpros -4,1% -4,1% 127,8
Hispaania -6,5% -6,5% 120,1
Itaalia -8,1% -8,1% 100,5
EL-27 (kaalumata) -8,9% -3,8% 130,1
Allikas: Eurostat
11
12. B. Reaalne SKP:
Balti riigid vs Kreeka, Iirimaa ja Portugal
SKP (kvartaalne) dünaamika ja prognoos pärast SKP kõrgeimat taset
perioodil 2007–08 (t0=100)
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
Balti riigid
Balti riigid (IMF prognoos 2012Q3 - 2014Q4)
Iirimaa, Kreeka, Portugal
Iirimaa, Kreeka, Portugal (IMF prognoos 2012Q3 - 2014Q4)
Allikas: Eurostat, IMF WEO andmebaas 2012. aasta oktoobri seisuga
12
13. B. Eratarbimine:
Balti riigid vs Kreeka, Iirimaa ja Portugal
Eratarbimise (kvartaalne) dünaamika pärast SKP kõrgeimat taset perioodil
2007–08 (t0=100)
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
t_0 t_1 t_2 t_3 t_4 t_5 t_6 t_7 t_8 t_9 t_10 t_11 t_12 t_13 t_14 t_15 t_16 t_17
Balti riigid Iirimaa, Kreeka, Portugal
Allikas: Eurostat
13
14. B. Tööpuudus:
Balti riigid vs Kreeka, Iirimaa ja Portugal
Tööpuuduse (kvartaalne) dünaamika ja prognoos pärast SKP kõrgeimat
taset perioodil 2007–08 (%)
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
Balti riigid
Balti riigid (IMF prognoos 2012Q3 - 2014Q4)
Iirimaa, Kreeka, Portugal
Iirimaa, Kreeka, Portugal (IMF prognoos 2012Q3 - 2014Q4)
Allikas: Eurostat, IMF WEO andmebaas 2012. aasta oktoobri seisuga
14
15. B. Tööjõu ühikukuludel põhinev reaalne
efektiivne vahetuskurss (REER):
Balti riigid vs Kreeka, Iirimaa ja Portugal
Tööjõu ühikukuludel põhineva REER-i (kvartaalne) dünaamika pärast SKP
kõrgeimat taset perioodil 2007–08 (t0=100)
110
105
100
95
90
85
Balti riigid Iirimaa, Kreeka, Portugal
Allikas: Eurostat
15
16. B. Jooksevkonto tasakaal:
Balti riigid vs Kreeka, Iirimaa ja Portugal
Jooksevkonto tasakaalu dünaamika ja prognoos perioodil 2007–14 (% SKPst)
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Balti riigid
Balti riigid (IMF prognoos 2012 - 2014)
Iirimaa, Kreeka, Portugal
Iirimaa, Kreeka, Portugal (IMF prognoos 2012 - 2014)
Allikas: Eurostat, IMF WEO andmebaas 2012. aasta oktoobri seisuga
16
17. B. Eelarve tasakaal:
Balti riigid vs Kreeka, Iirimaa ja Portugal
Eelarve tasakaalu dünaamika ja prognoos perioodil 2007–14 (% SKPst)
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Balti riigid
Balti riigid (IMF prognoos 2012 - 2014)
Iirimaa, Kreeka, Portugal
Iirimaa, Kreeka, Portugal (IMF prognoos 2012 - 2014)
Allikas: Eurostat, IMF WEO andmebaas 2012. aasta oktoobri seisuga
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18. B. Riigi ja erasektori võlg:
Balti riigid vs Kreeka, Iirimaa ja Portugal
A. Avaliku sektori võlg aastatel 2007 ja B. Erasektori võlg aastatel 2007 ja
2011 (% SKPst) 2011 (% SKPst)
140 250
120
200
100
80 150
60 100
40
20 50
0 0
2007 2011 2007 2011
Balti riigid Iirimaa, Kreeka, Portugal Balti riigid Iirimaa, Kreeka, Portugal
Allikas: Eurostat
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19. B. Hiljutise kriisiperioodi kokkuvõte:
majanduse kohandumine Balti riikides
võrdluses Kreeka, Iirimaa ja Portugaliga
1. Majanduse suhteliselt kiire kohandumine Balti riikides võrreldes aeglasema
kohandumisega Kreekas, Iirimaal ja Portugalis.
2. Kapitalivoogude sissevoolu järsk lakkamine Balti riikides võrreldes järk-järgulise
kohandumisega Kreekas, Iirimaal ja Portugalis (erakapitali sissevoolu asendumine
keskpankade poolt pakutava likviidsusega).
3. Avaliku sektori võlakoormuse järsk kasv Kreekas, Iirimaal ja Portugalis võrreldes
mõõduka kasvuga Balti riikides.
4. Erasektori võlakoormuse märkimisväärne kasv Kreekas, Iirimaal ja Portugalis
võrreldes erasektori võlakoormuse vähenemisega Balti riikides.
5. Sarnased muutused ilmnesid hinna- ja kulualase konkurentsi osas (reaalne
vahetuskurss).
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20. C. Kiire või aeglane kohandumine:
eelised ja puudused
Kiire kohandumise puudused:
- ülereageerimise tõttu võivad tegevuse lõpetada ka jätkusuutlikud ettevõtted,
mis toob omakorda kaasa füüsilise ja inimkapitali vähenemise;
- võib osutuda poliitiliselt keerukaks, kui valijad pole piisavalt
informeeritud või on tõrksad muutuste suhtes;
- kui kohandumismeetmeid rakendatakse kiiresti, võivad sellega kaasneda
vead majanduspoliitikas.
Kiire kohandumise eelised:
- lühem ebakindluse periood, mis võib pärssida majanduslikku aktiivsust
(eriti investeerimisotsuseid);
- jätkusuutmatute ettevõtete tegevuse kiire lõpetamine, mis võimaldab
ressursside paigutust tootlikumatesse valdkondadesse;
- võimalik vältida reformidest väsimist;
- võimalik vältida nii avaliku sektori kui erasektori võlakoormuse liigset
kasvu.
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21. C. Mille tõttu oli võimalik Balti riikide
majanduste kiire kohandumine?
Kiire kohandumine oli Baltimaades suures osas paratamatu:
- erakapitali sissevool lõppes järsult ning sellele järgnes kapitali suuremahuline
väljavool;
- negatiivne kaubandusšokk oli tugevam kui enamikus Euroopa Liidu liikmesriikides;
- puudusid efektiivsed vastutsüklilised poliitikad.
Balti riikide majanduskeskkond on paindlik:
- pangandussektor kuulub suures ulatuses tugevatele välispankadele, kellel on hea
ligipääs keskpankade poolt pakutavale likviidsusabile (nt. Rootsi pangad);
- tugev kasvupotentsiaal;
- Balti riikide pangad olid hästi kapitaliseeritud;
- tööturg suhteliselt paindlik;
- suhteliselt suur kaubeldav sektor.
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22. C. Kas Balti riike ootab stabiilne kasv?
Kohandumine on taganud majandusele tugevama aluse:
- välis- ja finantssektori haavatavus on oluliselt vähenenud;
- toimunud on märkimisväärsed muutused majanduse struktuuris;
- paljud väheefektiivsed ettevõtted on oma äritegevuse lõpetanud.
Järsud muutused majanduskeskkonnas nõuavad jätkuvalt tähelepanu:
- varasem või jõulisem sekkumine, et vältida haavatavuste tekkimist;
- eelarveliste ja makrofinantsjärelevalveliste meetmete aktiivsem kasutamine;
- majanduse vastupanuvõime säilitamise vajalikkus.
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