Predictive Analytics and the Value of Trust, Google
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In this presentation Gregory A. Green talks about the uses of predictive analytics at Google, and the rewards and benefits they are able to draw from using them. In partnership with using them with the their isight tools, Google are able to be more specific in their aims and work on developing trusted platforms.
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Predictive Analytics and the Value of Trust, Google
- 1. Google Confidential and Proprietary 11 Predictive Analytics and the Value of Trust Gregory A. Green, Ph.D. Data Scientist greggreen@google.com
- 2. Google Confidential and Proprietary 22 Farmville 30M people using it every day; an est. 800K virtual tractors sold daily at $3.33 each ebay Selling $6B via mobile in 2010 YouTube views Lady Gaga 1.5B video views iPhone App store 5B apps downloaded Red Cross 20% ($23M) of donations for Haiti in first week made via text message Amazon 180 Kindle books sold for every 100 hardcovers Consumer Transformation: Last Year!
- 3. Google Confidential and Proprietary 33 Games More social, more mobile, more real-time Commerce Showrooming, crowdsourci ng Video Another year, more fever… Mobile Payments, Social, Local Charitable Giving Speed, Reach, Scale, Lowe r Cost Tablet Double growth anyone? Second screen Consumer Transformation: 2012
- 4. Google Confidential and Proprietary 44 A Few Statistics 100B Searches Monthly Over 30 Trillion URLs – vs. 1T in 2008 Google Power Searching Course 155,000 signups. (07/10/12) 16% of searches every day are new Over 400 million Google users have upgraded to Google+ & 150M are 30 day actives, 50% sign in daily to Google Daily active Google+ users spend 12 min/day on the stream, up from 9 minutes just 3 months ago 800M people are watching 4B hours a month on YouTube Over 72 hrs of video uploaded every minute and doubling year-over-year More video uploaded to YouTube in a day than all 3 major US networks broadcast in the last 3 years Over 500 million Android-powered devices activated More than 1.3 million Android devices are activated each day More than 25 billion apps have been downloaded from Google Play
- 5. Google Confidential and Proprietary 55 Insight Tools at Google Brand Affiliations Competitor Insights Annual “What the World Searched” Guide Social Chatter Peer-to-Peer Learning Search Trends Competitor Comparisons Owned Media Learning 2nd Screen Trending Engagement Insights Web Influence In Consumer Path To Purchase Digital Aggregator/ Statistics for a Brand Custom Consumer Research Collection of Custom Mobile Insights
- 6. Google Confidential and Proprietary 66 Digital Prediction of Consumer Intentions Perception Tracker Social Trends Intentions and Actions Fads/Fashions Culture
- 7. Google Confidential and Proprietary 77 Fragmenting Media Marketplace Today1950 1980 Cable TV Personal Computer Video Games DVR Satellite TV 3D TV Online Radio Online TV Blogs Podcasts Blogs Portals Ad Networks MMORP Games Instant Messengers Social Networks Mobile Gaming Mobile Video Mobile Computers Email Search eBooks Digital Billboards Newspapers Broadcast TV Magazines Broadcast Radio Billboards Movies Media Timeline Newspapers Broadcast TV Magazines Broadcast Radio Billboards Movies Cable TV Personal Computer Video Games Newspapers Broadcast TV Magazines Broadcast Radio Billboards Movies The challenge with the exponential data exhaust.
- 8. Google Confidential and Proprietary 88 Predictive Analytics: Beyond 2012 101101010001 01001010101 010110101010 10110 101101010001 01001010101 010110101010 10110 101101010001 01001010101 010110101010 10110 Data Exhaust Scale & Tools Trust Time Decision makers Application Data Reporting Analytics Predictive
- 9. Google Confidential and Proprietary 99 Value of Trust in Data Science Predictive benchmark Precision forecasting Comparative benchmark Performance evaluation Transparency - fluid, easy, served Information access - technically transparent to value creation to action Insights Trust Pace Fragmentation Engagement Innovations Globality
- 10. Google Confidential and Proprietary 1010 Video Mobile Search Display Awareness Consideration Evaluation Purchase Advocacy Consumer Fueled by overwhelming options and content
- 11. Google Confidential and Proprietary 1111 Operational Efficiencies Marketing Performance Better Decisions Developing Trusted Platforms
- 12. Google Confidential and Proprietary 1212 Eliminating Loss Drives Performance Integration yields… more effective campaigns Each data transfer results in lost reach Ad Exchange 100% DSP 100% Ad Serving (Buy Side) 100% 100%100%
- 13. Google Confidential and Proprietary 1313 Integration… better decisions $ $ Cross-channel campaign management 3 2 Single attribution model 1 More holistic view of your audience Streamlined operations and unified reporting gives you more time and insight to make better decisions
- 14. Google Confidential and Proprietary 1414 Stimulus Zero Moment of Truth First Moment of Truth (Shelf) Second Moment of Truth (Experience) Which influence other moments Consumer Trust Building The consumer journey in today’s digital world has radically changed
- 15. Google Confidential and Proprietary 1515 All Moments Impact The Purchase Decision Explosion of Uses and Reliance Among over 5,000 consumers surveyed: Source: Google, Zero Moment of Truth, When you were considering purchasing [PRODUCT], what sources of information did you seek out to help with your decision? Base: 5,003 influenced by stimulus 76% influenced by ZMOT 84% influenced by FMOT 77% influenced by SMOT 59%
- 16. Google Confidential and Proprietary 1616 Trust Builders in Data and Analytics Science Black Box Fragmentation Isolation Independent Variables Swamped with Disparate Data Overwhelmed with Metrics Rearview Analytics What Happened?? Clear Box, Transparency Integration Connectedness Interdependence Exploration Highlights, Alerts, Focused Trusted Predictive Action to Accelerate Growth Building trust is a critical to shift budgets to digital channels
- 17. Google Confidential and Proprietary 1717 And One More Thing Changed… Who Knew? Source: HBR
- 18. Google Confidential and Proprietary 1818 Google Trends: Predictive Analytics
- 19. Google Confidential and Proprietary 1919 Google Trends: Statistician
- 20. Google Confidential and Proprietary 2020 Google Trends: Data Scientist
- 21. Google Confidential and Proprietary 2121 Google Trends: Justin Bieber Baby
- 22. Google Confidential and Proprietary 2222 Google Trends: Gangham Style
- 23. Google Confidential and Proprietary 2323 Oh yeah… it’s all about content • YOUTUBE VIDEO • Hint: You are about to see the first video that could hit 1 billion views • Any guesses? • Any predictions on how many we’ll see next year? • Been to one of your kid’s proms lately?
- 24. Google Confidential and Proprietary 2424
- 25. Google Confidential and Proprietary 2525 Predictive Analytics and The Latest Content “A stream of information has been making it's way over. I've realized that there's more to this world than we can truly see. I have many questions, but one keeps coming up: What is the Niantic Project?” http://www.google.com/+NianticProject Facebook: ht ook.com/NianticProject Twitter: http://www.twitter.com t
- 26. Google Confidential and Proprietary 2626 Predictive Analytics and The Latest Content “Niantic is trying to solve some of the problems created by smartphones, namely, that they divide us, divert us from reality, and make us inattentive. A powerful mobile computer, Hanke says, should connect us to the real world and all the context that’s there. Google’s own Project Glass is already attempting to do so-called augmented reality, in which camera, location and processing power combine to annotate the world around us with extra data and images. It’s all about “seeing with new eyes,” says Hanke. Niantic Labs, after all, takes its name from a 120-foot sailing ship that arrived in San Francisco 160 years ago for the Gold Rush. But the Niantic never returned home. It was one of hundreds of ships abandoned–rigging, furnishings and all–by its crew for the gold fields and sunk into the earth as foundation for a waterfront hotel. A giant sailing ship buried beneath the inattentive thrum of high-tech SF–it’s an all-too-perfect metaphor for a team of people using tech to unearth hidden context. In September Niantic came out with its first product, a free Android app called Field Trip. It immediately won pretty good reviews. Field Trip pulls up interesting facts and context about the sights and places around you from a myriad of editorial sources including Zagat, Architizer, Eater/Curbd, Atlas Obscura, Arcadia Publishing’s thousands of hyperlocal guides, Vayable and Daily Secret. It runs continuously in the background, pushing info cards even in front of a phone’s lock screen, but it’s supposedly smart about how it uses a phone’s battery so it doesn’t drain the device.” Source: Forbes, 11/8/2012 http://www.forbes.com/sites/bruceupbin/2012/11/08/the-niantic-project-what-is-google-up-to/
- 27. Google Confidential and Proprietary 2727 Predictive Analytics and The Latest Content
Editor's Notes
- Predictive Analytics Innovation Conference Notes:How many of you are Analytics Professionals? How many consider yourselves Data Scientists? Analytics Scientists? How many Depend on Analytics and Data for Decisions?In recent years it has become clear that my number one asset is not data, analytics, great software or my passion for analytics – although all of those help…It is the trust of my colleagues, clients, management – and when we have that trust things accelerate – they grow faster and decisions that matter at scale are possible With trust – things take-off. Without it, things move at a glacial pace.
- Last year we focused on 6 major trends I thought were hot in the market – and worth a little reflection…Are they still hot?
- When I joined Google a few years back – the first thing I noticed was that the scale of opportunities and the internet impact was much bigger than I could imagine – every idea has possibilities that continue to amaze meThe web is growing very rapidly – 30 Trillion vs 1 Trillion URLs from a few years back. 72 hours of Video uploaded every minute to YouTube and doubling every year. 500 million Android devices activated – imagine a world with a super computer in the hands of over a billion people – it is almost here.Here is a tidbit you may not have known – try Google Power Searching…I watched David Kennedy last night show how any kid can be an advanced archeologist using Google Earth to ID old civilizations and abandoned cities in Egypt and Saudi Arabia – 400 Meters at a time looking down from a low flying aircraft. Archeology made a major advance with Baloons and cameras – imaging what is happening in that discipline now with Google earth.Amazing opportunities to explore our world, access to information and more at the fingertips of all of us – no special degrees required.
- Interested in consumer behavior? – specifically related to brands of advertisers. Tools like Google trends, the consumer barometer, research studies all provide indicators and signals to what is hot, growing, exploding.These tools are available to Agencies and advertisers to help them navigate the changing consumer dynamics
- The digital world has offered a promise – we have high expectations:Consumers are sharing their likes/dislikes or products, brands, politics, religion, everythingSocial trends are evident in early stages – opportunities to catch the wave early, Cultural shifts and more – so as an Analytics Scientist – I feel like a kid in a candy store – eyes bulging, not really knowing where to start…And in my field, things are coming fast and furious with management, clients, and colleagues expecting us to know how to use all the data available to predict… to forecast, and to capture opportunity.But – with all this data, and with all the predictions and forecasting going on, there are some disruptions that are getting in the way –
- In the space I work every day – while there is a lot of data – the fragmentation continues at an exponential pace.Media outlets and options are numerous – times the number of devices as options to consume.This sets the stage for questions to the Scientist that are difficult to answer and trust in the numbers we can produce is strained…The primary disrupting factors are FragmentationThe Pace of Change – Note that when I pulled up the deck from just one year back, I was not certain whether the new trends surfacing then were still valid – and if so how much they had morphed. If you are a big box retailer the mobile phone in a short time is an obvious example – it is not just voice and text.And Innovation – new things can get big at a scale unprecedented in 60 days – more about that in a moment
- So what was our approach – how many times have you seen a pyramid like this – well – I have used a pyramid in over 100 presentations in the past 10 years – so be patient with me.Take Media Mix Modeling for a moment to make this real: Some great work is going on our there – I spoke with Wes Nichols last night about this talk and I feel he is making great strides to address exactly these issues.The data exhaust of all the fragmentation needs a place to go – and it needs to be integrated and accessibleDue to the Pace issue – it can not be 2 years of history and analytics that takes 6 months to crank through – the timing needs to be live and real time…The Decision makers are sometime new to this game – used to annual planning rather than mid campaign media mix adjustments based on viral and consumer uptakeThe applications have the same names but have fundamentally changed – I used to see graphs of media mix effects with 5 colors and bands showing the interactions between 5 major channels – no moreA new wave of trust building is needed for Decision Makers to act – so my Pyramid has to be infused with trust to get from a frozen state to the dynamic action and real-time decision making needed
- Here is a platform being built for our agencies that follows this model – and is designed to build trust and work up the pyramid as in the examples we just discussed.This is the DoubleClick Digital Markting PlatformThe consumer moves through the purchase funnel – in a non-linear way across channels and devices.
- The platform underlying this challenge has three goalsEasy to use and operate Drive performanceLead to high impact decision making
- How it builds more trust – is in the details.Through integration we have less data loss – so an audience on one tool and in one area flows through without match loss – and without error In the world of Digital over the past few years – with the fragmentation of systems that specialize in a single channel, single function – the ability to match them up without data loss, time delays or otherwise performance loss was not present.With the DDM Platform – this is resolved.
- This results in audience buying opportunity for communication across channelsAttrribution of results that is clear and transparent without duplication And the ability to manage marketing again across channels and devices seemlessly.