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15/3 -17 impact exponential technologies
This document discusses how emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, digital biology, robotics, and nanotechnology are advancing exponentially and will transform our future in unprecedented ways. It summarizes key points about how within a few decades, machines may surpass human-level intelligence, leading to a technological singularity. It also emphasizes the importance of developing these technologies in a way that aligns with human values like democracy, liberty, and compassion to ensure they are beneficial to humanity. The document provides examples of the impact technologies may have on jobs, health, and other aspects of society, as well as perspectives on how to guide technological progress responsibly.
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15/3 -17 impact exponential technologies
- 1. Technology is determining ourfuture Paul Epping, Chapter lead March 15th Chapter SU Dubai presentation
- 2. Who or whatwill be thinking for me? #SUChapterDubai
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- 8. When you changethe way you look at things, the things you look at will change Wayne Dyre
- 9. Driver of exponential growthof technology
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- 12. Extermination of bigmammals On the move Extension of our stomach Fire
- 13. The last 10seconds
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- 15. Exponential technological growth atreduced cost for performance Bandwidth Storage Cost Computing Cost 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 $ per gB per Sec. $ per 1M transistors $ per gB 1992 Today $ Time Video conferencing Digital camera GPS Scanning Calculator Cloud storage Digital dictaphone Music player Video player Etc. Software solutions for free
- 16. A gap thatwe usually don’t conceive as a gap
- 17. Examples of exponentialtechnologies Cognitivecomputing Nano technology Digital biology Genomics Energy 3D printing Digitization Robotics
- 18. The law ofacceleration returns will be seen at the intersections of exponential technologies
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- 20. Effect that wesee, experience All technology that will digitize, add information to itDigitize 1 Stages of innovation to understand that disruption is just one phase The 6 D’s according to P. Diamandis In the early stage small doublings => once it hits the knee you’re 10 doublings away from a thousand, twenty doublings to reach a million; thirty doublings to get to a billion Deceptive 2 Any innovation that creates a new market and disrupts an existing one Disruptive 3 You don’t have separated solutions (flashlight, GPS or camera,….) Instead => apps on your smartphone Dematerializatio n 5 You can reach very quickly very large groups of peopleDemocratization 6 An existing product or service will available for free or way cheaper (Uber, Airbnb, FB, Skype, Whatsapp, etc) Demonetizatio n 4 ReshapedourworldRevolutionizeour world
- 21. Examples of results onthe intersections
- 29. Bob Radocy atCybathlon
- 32. Ultrasound in yourpocket
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- 34. Develop and demonstratehowhumanscan collaborate with powerful AI technologies to tackle the world’s grand challenges
- 35. xPrize: 21 medicalconditions (10 required, 5 elective) including diabetes anemia, sleep apnea, atrial fibrillation, RR (should weight < 5 pounds)
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- 38. 24/7 Connectivity: TheInternet of Medical Things 38 Always-on personalized connected health services at the point of care Population health management
- 39. Perceived Benefits andNegative Consequences of 12 Emerging Technologies (WEF’17) 75 % will affect HC!
- 40. Now Tomorrow Interne t Now wecan make the “math” ourselves
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- 42. The neocortex asdifferentiator 100 million modules built for pattern recognition
- 43. Dendrites generate nearly10 times more electrochemical spikes than neuron cell bodies Computational power bigger than thought
- 45. AI start upsin the US, 2016 =>160 Since 2012 => 648
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- 48. Three forms ofArtificial Intelligence 1. Artificial Narrow Intelligence 2. Artificial General Intelligence 3. Artificial Super Intelligence These three are often lumped together as AI This confuses the discussion about AI
- 49. Professor Stephen Hawking(Photo Credit: NASA/Paul Alers) www.gizmag.com
- 51. Our brains aregetting augmented, but socially we are weakening Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http:/ / host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http:/ / host. dom ain.tl d
- 52. And all connectedto the internet… Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d
- 53. Steve Jobs andBill Gates 1991 By 2030-2050 millions of people could become augmented geniuses, and what could they create?
- 56. Do “they” reallyunderstand….??
- 58. Brains are in!Ourfuture Hybrid Synthetic Brain?
- 59. AI will dominateus… and now? R L Merge typical human values like love, liberty, democracy, compassion, tolerance with AI. This inheritance will be an opportunity for a better world.
- 60. Asilomar AI principles Research Issues Goal Funding Culture Race avoidance Science Politics link Non- subversion Ethics& Values AI Arms race Shared prosperity Liberty & Privacy Human values Responsi bility Safety Human control Shared benefit Personal privacy Value alignment Judicial transpare ncy Failure transpare ncy Longer term Issues Recursive Self- improvem ent Common good Risks Import ance Capability caution
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- 63. The 6 Epochs: Evolutionworks through indirection: it creates a capability and then uses that capability to evolve the next stage. 16-03-17 63
- 64. My key learnings •Change yourself or you will be changed • Exponential growth of technology will force us to change gears • Unprecedented confluence of disruptive technologies (synthetic biology, AI, nano, sensors, robots, etc.) will improve our physical health • Machines will surpass human intelligence soon and cross an irreversible point • No future for diseases: genomics – nano - AI- digital biology • Merging human values with AI for co-existential sustainability • Lost of millions of jobs < 10 years, but are we ready to focus on opportunities (education)? • By 2020 we have 2 billion new minds joining the internet, 2 billion inventors… • Many organizations build their strategies on linear foundations whereas the exponential world is around the corner. New business models are needed • There will be a world of abundance, but who will benefit from that? • Technology encourages superficiality (millenniums)
- 65. Influential books (mustreads … if you have time)
- 66. In the endit’s all about ideas ……. let ideas meet each other
- 67. .Thank You . © 2017 SingularityUniversity Paul Epping PaulEpping PaulEpping