SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1
CHAPTER TWELVE
ARBITRAGE PRICING
THEORY
2
BackgroundBackground
• Estimating expected return with the AssetEstimating expected return with the Asset
Pricing Models of Modern FinancePricing Models of Modern Finance
– CAPMCAPM
• Strong assumption - strong predictionStrong assumption - strong prediction
Expected
Return
Risk
(Return Variability)
Market Index on Efficient Set
Market
Index
A
B
C
Market
Beta
Expected
Return
Corresponding Security
Market Line
xxx
xxxx
xxxx
xx
xx
x x x
xxx
xx
x
Market
Index
Expected
Return
Risk
(Return Variability)
Market Index Inside
Efficient Set
Corresponding Security
Market Cloud
Expected
Return
Market Beta
5
FACTOR MODELS
• ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY (APT)
– is an equilibrium factor model of security returns
– Principle of Arbitrage
• the earning of riskless profit by taking advantage of
differentiated pricing for the same physical asset or security
– Arbitrage Portfolio
• requires no additional investor funds
• no factor sensitivity
• has positive expected returns
– Example …
Curved Relationship Between Expected Return and Interest Rate BetaCurved Relationship Between Expected Return and Interest Rate Beta
-15%-15%
-5%-5%
5%5%
15%15%
25%25%
35%35%
Expected ReturnExpected Return
-3-3 -1-1 11 33
Interest Rate BetaInterest Rate Beta
AA
BB
CC
DD EE FF
• Two stocks
A: E(r) = 4%; Interest-rate beta = -2.20
B: E(r) = 26%; Interest-rate beta = 1.83
Invest 54.54% in E and 45.46% in A
Portfolio E(r) = .5454 * 26% + .4546 * 4% = 16%
Portfolio beta = .5454 * 1.83 + .4546 * -2.20 = 0
With many combinations like this, you can create
a risk-free portfolio with a 16% expected return.
The Arbitrage Pricing TheoryThe Arbitrage Pricing Theory
The Arbitrage Pricing TheoryThe Arbitrage Pricing Theory
• Two different stocks
C: E(r) = 15%; Interest-rate beta = -1.00
D: E(r) = 25%; Interest-rate beta = 1.00
Invest 50.00% in E and 50.00% in A
Portfolio E(r) = .5000 * 25% + .4546 * 15% = 20%
Portfolio beta = .5000 * 1.00 + .5000 * -1.00 = 0
With many combinations like this, you can create a
risk-free portfolio with a 20% expected return. Then
sell-short the 16% and invest the proceeds in the
20% to arbitrage.
9
• No-arbitrage condition for asset pricing
If risk-return relationship is non-linear, you
can arbitrage.
Attempts to arbitrage will force linearity in
relationship between risk and return.
The Arbitrage Pricing TheoryThe Arbitrage Pricing Theory
APT Relationship Between Expected Return and Interest Rate BetaAPT Relationship Between Expected Return and Interest Rate Beta
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
Expected ReturnExpected Return
-3 -1 1 3
Interest Rate Beta
A B
C
D
E
F
11
FACTOR MODELS
• ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY (APT)
– Three Major Assumptions:
• capital markets are perfectly competitive
• investors always prefer more to less wealth
• price-generating process is a K factor model
12
FACTOR MODELS
• MULTIPLE-FACTOR MODELS
– FORMULA
ri = ai + bi1 F1 + bi2 F2 +. . .
+ biKF K+ ei
where r is the return on security i
b is the coefficient of the factor
F is the factor
13
FACTOR MODELS
• SECURITY PRICING
FORMULA:
ri = λ0 + λ1 b1 + λ2 b2 +. . .+ λKbK
where
ri = rRF +(δ1−rRF )bi1 + (δ2− rRF)bi2+ . . .
+(δ−rRF)biK
14
FACTOR MODELS
where r is the return on security i
λ0 is the risk free rate
b is the factor
e is the error term
15
FACTOR MODELS
• hence
– a stock’s expected return is equal to the risk
free rate plus k risk premiums based on the
stock’s sensitivities to the k factors

More Related Content

What's hot

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
Heickal Pradinanta
 
Chapter 7
Chapter 7Chapter 7
Chapter 7
Mathew Rincon
 
CAPM: Introduction & Teaching Issues - Richard Diamond
CAPM: Introduction & Teaching Issues - Richard DiamondCAPM: Introduction & Teaching Issues - Richard Diamond
CAPM: Introduction & Teaching Issues - Richard Diamond
Richard Diamond
 
Capital asset pricing model (CAPM)
Capital asset pricing model (CAPM)Capital asset pricing model (CAPM)
Capital asset pricing model (CAPM)
Simran Kaur
 
Capital Asset Pricing Model
Capital Asset Pricing ModelCapital Asset Pricing Model
Capital Asset Pricing Model
Shakthi Fernando
 
The capital-asset-pricing-model-capm75
The capital-asset-pricing-model-capm75The capital-asset-pricing-model-capm75
The capital-asset-pricing-model-capm75
Rana Faisal Ali
 
CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL
CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODELCAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL
CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL
Villa College
 
Capital Asset Pricing Model
Capital Asset Pricing ModelCapital Asset Pricing Model
Capital Asset Pricing Model
Chintan Vadgama
 
SAPM lecture 4 Capital Asset Pricing Model theory
SAPM lecture 4 Capital Asset Pricing Model theorySAPM lecture 4 Capital Asset Pricing Model theory
SAPM lecture 4 Capital Asset Pricing Model theory
yogesh ingle
 
capm theory
   capm theory   capm theory
capm theory
Divyathilakan
 
capital asset pricing model
capital asset pricing modelcapital asset pricing model
capital asset pricing model
Aditya Mehta
 
3. sharpe index model
3. sharpe  index model3. sharpe  index model
3. sharpe index model
Akash Bakshi
 
5.capital asset pricing model
5.capital asset pricing model5.capital asset pricing model
5.capital asset pricing model
Akash Bakshi
 
Capital Asset Pricing Model
Capital Asset Pricing ModelCapital Asset Pricing Model
Capital Asset Pricing Model
Rod Medallon
 
Financial Mgt. - Capital Asset Pricing Model
Financial Mgt. - Capital Asset Pricing ModelFinancial Mgt. - Capital Asset Pricing Model
Financial Mgt. - Capital Asset Pricing Model
Kaustabh Basu
 
CAPM
CAPMCAPM
The capital asset pricing model
The capital asset pricing modelThe capital asset pricing model
The capital asset pricing model
Telenor
 
Chapter v capital market theory
Chapter v  capital market theoryChapter v  capital market theory
Chapter v capital market theory
nirdoshk88
 
CAPM Fama French
CAPM Fama FrenchCAPM Fama French
CAPM Fama French
AhmedSaba
 
Capital asset pricing model
Capital asset pricing modelCapital asset pricing model
Capital asset pricing model
Anuj Bhatia
 

What's hot (20)

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
 
Chapter 7
Chapter 7Chapter 7
Chapter 7
 
CAPM: Introduction & Teaching Issues - Richard Diamond
CAPM: Introduction & Teaching Issues - Richard DiamondCAPM: Introduction & Teaching Issues - Richard Diamond
CAPM: Introduction & Teaching Issues - Richard Diamond
 
Capital asset pricing model (CAPM)
Capital asset pricing model (CAPM)Capital asset pricing model (CAPM)
Capital asset pricing model (CAPM)
 
Capital Asset Pricing Model
Capital Asset Pricing ModelCapital Asset Pricing Model
Capital Asset Pricing Model
 
The capital-asset-pricing-model-capm75
The capital-asset-pricing-model-capm75The capital-asset-pricing-model-capm75
The capital-asset-pricing-model-capm75
 
CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL
CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODELCAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL
CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL
 
Capital Asset Pricing Model
Capital Asset Pricing ModelCapital Asset Pricing Model
Capital Asset Pricing Model
 
SAPM lecture 4 Capital Asset Pricing Model theory
SAPM lecture 4 Capital Asset Pricing Model theorySAPM lecture 4 Capital Asset Pricing Model theory
SAPM lecture 4 Capital Asset Pricing Model theory
 
capm theory
   capm theory   capm theory
capm theory
 
capital asset pricing model
capital asset pricing modelcapital asset pricing model
capital asset pricing model
 
3. sharpe index model
3. sharpe  index model3. sharpe  index model
3. sharpe index model
 
5.capital asset pricing model
5.capital asset pricing model5.capital asset pricing model
5.capital asset pricing model
 
Capital Asset Pricing Model
Capital Asset Pricing ModelCapital Asset Pricing Model
Capital Asset Pricing Model
 
Financial Mgt. - Capital Asset Pricing Model
Financial Mgt. - Capital Asset Pricing ModelFinancial Mgt. - Capital Asset Pricing Model
Financial Mgt. - Capital Asset Pricing Model
 
CAPM
CAPMCAPM
CAPM
 
The capital asset pricing model
The capital asset pricing modelThe capital asset pricing model
The capital asset pricing model
 
Chapter v capital market theory
Chapter v  capital market theoryChapter v  capital market theory
Chapter v capital market theory
 
CAPM Fama French
CAPM Fama FrenchCAPM Fama French
CAPM Fama French
 
Capital asset pricing model
Capital asset pricing modelCapital asset pricing model
Capital asset pricing model
 

Similar to 12 apt

Capital asset pricing Model (CAPM-Asif).pptx
Capital asset pricing Model (CAPM-Asif).pptxCapital asset pricing Model (CAPM-Asif).pptx
Capital asset pricing Model (CAPM-Asif).pptx
AsifHasan395472
 
Capital Asset pricing model- lec6
Capital Asset pricing model- lec6Capital Asset pricing model- lec6
Capital Asset pricing model- lec6
University of Balochistan
 
Capm
CapmCapm
C6
C6C6
corporate finance
corporate financecorporate finance
corporate finance
Leonard Henry Muziyo
 
Portfolio Risk & Return Part 2.pdf
Portfolio Risk & Return Part 2.pdfPortfolio Risk & Return Part 2.pdf
Portfolio Risk & Return Part 2.pdf
Rahul das
 
Fm11 ch 05 show
Fm11 ch 05 showFm11 ch 05 show
Fm11 ch 05 show
Adi Susilo
 
Fm11 ch 05 risk and return portfolio theory and asset pricing models
Fm11 ch 05 risk and return  portfolio theory and asset pricing modelsFm11 ch 05 risk and return  portfolio theory and asset pricing models
Fm11 ch 05 risk and return portfolio theory and asset pricing models
Nhu Tuyet Tran
 
Unit_2_IAPM_PPT.pdf
Unit_2_IAPM_PPT.pdfUnit_2_IAPM_PPT.pdf
Unit_2_IAPM_PPT.pdf
amrutrajg
 
capital asset pricing model for calculating cost of capital for risk for risk...
capital asset pricing model for calculating cost of capital for risk for risk...capital asset pricing model for calculating cost of capital for risk for risk...
capital asset pricing model for calculating cost of capital for risk for risk...
University of Balochistan
 
Constructing Private Asset Benchmarks
Constructing Private Asset BenchmarksConstructing Private Asset Benchmarks
Constructing Private Asset Benchmarks
QuantUniversity
 
CAPM and APT-7.pptx
CAPM and APT-7.pptxCAPM and APT-7.pptx
CAPM and APT-7.pptx
DhruvinSakariya
 
THE CAPM.pptx
THE CAPM.pptxTHE CAPM.pptx
THE CAPM.pptx
MinnaAshly
 
Qwafafew meeting 4
Qwafafew meeting 4Qwafafew meeting 4
Qwafafew meeting 4
QuantUniversity
 
Capm e 2093 - april 2005
Capm   e 2093 - april 2005Capm   e 2093 - april 2005
Capm e 2093 - april 2005
akashkumar0001
 
Asset pricing models
Asset pricing modelsAsset pricing models
Asset pricing models
Aakash Kulkarni
 
Security analysis
Security analysisSecurity analysis
Security analysis
achieveranand
 
Chapter10 thecostofcapital
Chapter10 thecostofcapitalChapter10 thecostofcapital
Chapter10 thecostofcapital
AKSHAYA0000
 
Business Finance Chapter 11 Risk and return
Business Finance Chapter 11 Risk and returnBusiness Finance Chapter 11 Risk and return
Business Finance Chapter 11 Risk and return
Tinku Kumar
 
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Model
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) ModelCapital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Model
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Model
VadivelM9
 

Similar to 12 apt (20)

Capital asset pricing Model (CAPM-Asif).pptx
Capital asset pricing Model (CAPM-Asif).pptxCapital asset pricing Model (CAPM-Asif).pptx
Capital asset pricing Model (CAPM-Asif).pptx
 
Capital Asset pricing model- lec6
Capital Asset pricing model- lec6Capital Asset pricing model- lec6
Capital Asset pricing model- lec6
 
Capm
CapmCapm
Capm
 
C6
C6C6
C6
 
corporate finance
corporate financecorporate finance
corporate finance
 
Portfolio Risk & Return Part 2.pdf
Portfolio Risk & Return Part 2.pdfPortfolio Risk & Return Part 2.pdf
Portfolio Risk & Return Part 2.pdf
 
Fm11 ch 05 show
Fm11 ch 05 showFm11 ch 05 show
Fm11 ch 05 show
 
Fm11 ch 05 risk and return portfolio theory and asset pricing models
Fm11 ch 05 risk and return  portfolio theory and asset pricing modelsFm11 ch 05 risk and return  portfolio theory and asset pricing models
Fm11 ch 05 risk and return portfolio theory and asset pricing models
 
Unit_2_IAPM_PPT.pdf
Unit_2_IAPM_PPT.pdfUnit_2_IAPM_PPT.pdf
Unit_2_IAPM_PPT.pdf
 
capital asset pricing model for calculating cost of capital for risk for risk...
capital asset pricing model for calculating cost of capital for risk for risk...capital asset pricing model for calculating cost of capital for risk for risk...
capital asset pricing model for calculating cost of capital for risk for risk...
 
Constructing Private Asset Benchmarks
Constructing Private Asset BenchmarksConstructing Private Asset Benchmarks
Constructing Private Asset Benchmarks
 
CAPM and APT-7.pptx
CAPM and APT-7.pptxCAPM and APT-7.pptx
CAPM and APT-7.pptx
 
THE CAPM.pptx
THE CAPM.pptxTHE CAPM.pptx
THE CAPM.pptx
 
Qwafafew meeting 4
Qwafafew meeting 4Qwafafew meeting 4
Qwafafew meeting 4
 
Capm e 2093 - april 2005
Capm   e 2093 - april 2005Capm   e 2093 - april 2005
Capm e 2093 - april 2005
 
Asset pricing models
Asset pricing modelsAsset pricing models
Asset pricing models
 
Security analysis
Security analysisSecurity analysis
Security analysis
 
Chapter10 thecostofcapital
Chapter10 thecostofcapitalChapter10 thecostofcapital
Chapter10 thecostofcapital
 
Business Finance Chapter 11 Risk and return
Business Finance Chapter 11 Risk and returnBusiness Finance Chapter 11 Risk and return
Business Finance Chapter 11 Risk and return
 
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Model
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) ModelCapital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Model
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Model
 

Recently uploaded

快速办理(CUBoulder毕业证书)科罗拉多大学博尔德分校毕业证录取通知书一模一样
快速办理(CUBoulder毕业证书)科罗拉多大学博尔德分校毕业证录取通知书一模一样快速办理(CUBoulder毕业证书)科罗拉多大学博尔德分校毕业证录取通知书一模一样
快速办理(CUBoulder毕业证书)科罗拉多大学博尔德分校毕业证录取通知书一模一样
f3wjr2q2
 
Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd - Corporate Presentation, June 12, 2024
Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd - Corporate Presentation, June 12, 2024Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd - Corporate Presentation, June 12, 2024
Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd - Corporate Presentation, June 12, 2024
Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd
 
Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation - June 2024
Collective Mining  | Corporate Presentation - June 2024Collective Mining  | Corporate Presentation - June 2024
Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation - June 2024
CollectiveMining1
 
AGM Presentation Probe June 11 Final.pdf
AGM Presentation Probe June 11 Final.pdfAGM Presentation Probe June 11 Final.pdf
AGM Presentation Probe June 11 Final.pdf
Probe Gold
 
ZKsync airdrop of 3.6 billion ZK tokens is scheduled by ZKsync for next week.pdf
ZKsync airdrop of 3.6 billion ZK tokens is scheduled by ZKsync for next week.pdfZKsync airdrop of 3.6 billion ZK tokens is scheduled by ZKsync for next week.pdf
ZKsync airdrop of 3.6 billion ZK tokens is scheduled by ZKsync for next week.pdf
SOFTTECHHUB
 
Understanding-the-E-Way-Bill-A-Digital-Transformation-in-Logistics.pptx
Understanding-the-E-Way-Bill-A-Digital-Transformation-in-Logistics.pptxUnderstanding-the-E-Way-Bill-A-Digital-Transformation-in-Logistics.pptx
Understanding-the-E-Way-Bill-A-Digital-Transformation-in-Logistics.pptx
cosmo-soil
 
Methanex Investor Presentation - April 2024
Methanex Investor Presentation - April 2024Methanex Investor Presentation - April 2024
Methanex Investor Presentation - April 2024
Methanex Corporation
 
Cleades robinson:The Diplomat is Blue
Cleades robinson:The Diplomat is BlueCleades robinson:The Diplomat is Blue
Cleades robinson:The Diplomat is Blue
Cleades Robinson
 
Mandalay Resouces June 2024 Investor Relations PPT
Mandalay Resouces June 2024 Investor Relations PPTMandalay Resouces June 2024 Investor Relations PPT
Mandalay Resouces June 2024 Investor Relations PPT
MandalayResources
 
Cyberagent_For New Investors_EN_240424.pdf
Cyberagent_For New Investors_EN_240424.pdfCyberagent_For New Investors_EN_240424.pdf
Cyberagent_For New Investors_EN_240424.pdf
CyberAgent, Inc.
 
Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation - June 2024
Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation - June 2024Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation - June 2024
Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation - June 2024
CollectiveMining1
 
Corporate Presentation Probe June 2024.pdf
Corporate Presentation Probe June 2024.pdfCorporate Presentation Probe June 2024.pdf
Corporate Presentation Probe June 2024.pdf
Probe Gold
 
UnityNet World Environment Day Abraham Project 2024 Press Release
UnityNet World Environment Day Abraham Project 2024 Press ReleaseUnityNet World Environment Day Abraham Project 2024 Press Release
UnityNet World Environment Day Abraham Project 2024 Press Release
LHelferty
 
ppt-namibia-worldeconomy-standardbank.ppt
ppt-namibia-worldeconomy-standardbank.pptppt-namibia-worldeconomy-standardbank.ppt
ppt-namibia-worldeconomy-standardbank.ppt
TestOrg1
 

Recently uploaded (14)

快速办理(CUBoulder毕业证书)科罗拉多大学博尔德分校毕业证录取通知书一模一样
快速办理(CUBoulder毕业证书)科罗拉多大学博尔德分校毕业证录取通知书一模一样快速办理(CUBoulder毕业证书)科罗拉多大学博尔德分校毕业证录取通知书一模一样
快速办理(CUBoulder毕业证书)科罗拉多大学博尔德分校毕业证录取通知书一模一样
 
Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd - Corporate Presentation, June 12, 2024
Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd - Corporate Presentation, June 12, 2024Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd - Corporate Presentation, June 12, 2024
Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd - Corporate Presentation, June 12, 2024
 
Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation - June 2024
Collective Mining  | Corporate Presentation - June 2024Collective Mining  | Corporate Presentation - June 2024
Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation - June 2024
 
AGM Presentation Probe June 11 Final.pdf
AGM Presentation Probe June 11 Final.pdfAGM Presentation Probe June 11 Final.pdf
AGM Presentation Probe June 11 Final.pdf
 
ZKsync airdrop of 3.6 billion ZK tokens is scheduled by ZKsync for next week.pdf
ZKsync airdrop of 3.6 billion ZK tokens is scheduled by ZKsync for next week.pdfZKsync airdrop of 3.6 billion ZK tokens is scheduled by ZKsync for next week.pdf
ZKsync airdrop of 3.6 billion ZK tokens is scheduled by ZKsync for next week.pdf
 
Understanding-the-E-Way-Bill-A-Digital-Transformation-in-Logistics.pptx
Understanding-the-E-Way-Bill-A-Digital-Transformation-in-Logistics.pptxUnderstanding-the-E-Way-Bill-A-Digital-Transformation-in-Logistics.pptx
Understanding-the-E-Way-Bill-A-Digital-Transformation-in-Logistics.pptx
 
Methanex Investor Presentation - April 2024
Methanex Investor Presentation - April 2024Methanex Investor Presentation - April 2024
Methanex Investor Presentation - April 2024
 
Cleades robinson:The Diplomat is Blue
Cleades robinson:The Diplomat is BlueCleades robinson:The Diplomat is Blue
Cleades robinson:The Diplomat is Blue
 
Mandalay Resouces June 2024 Investor Relations PPT
Mandalay Resouces June 2024 Investor Relations PPTMandalay Resouces June 2024 Investor Relations PPT
Mandalay Resouces June 2024 Investor Relations PPT
 
Cyberagent_For New Investors_EN_240424.pdf
Cyberagent_For New Investors_EN_240424.pdfCyberagent_For New Investors_EN_240424.pdf
Cyberagent_For New Investors_EN_240424.pdf
 
Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation - June 2024
Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation - June 2024Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation - June 2024
Collective Mining | Corporate Presentation - June 2024
 
Corporate Presentation Probe June 2024.pdf
Corporate Presentation Probe June 2024.pdfCorporate Presentation Probe June 2024.pdf
Corporate Presentation Probe June 2024.pdf
 
UnityNet World Environment Day Abraham Project 2024 Press Release
UnityNet World Environment Day Abraham Project 2024 Press ReleaseUnityNet World Environment Day Abraham Project 2024 Press Release
UnityNet World Environment Day Abraham Project 2024 Press Release
 
ppt-namibia-worldeconomy-standardbank.ppt
ppt-namibia-worldeconomy-standardbank.pptppt-namibia-worldeconomy-standardbank.ppt
ppt-namibia-worldeconomy-standardbank.ppt
 

12 apt

  • 2. 2 BackgroundBackground • Estimating expected return with the AssetEstimating expected return with the Asset Pricing Models of Modern FinancePricing Models of Modern Finance – CAPMCAPM • Strong assumption - strong predictionStrong assumption - strong prediction
  • 3. Expected Return Risk (Return Variability) Market Index on Efficient Set Market Index A B C Market Beta Expected Return Corresponding Security Market Line xxx xxxx xxxx xx xx x x x xxx xx x
  • 4. Market Index Expected Return Risk (Return Variability) Market Index Inside Efficient Set Corresponding Security Market Cloud Expected Return Market Beta
  • 5. 5 FACTOR MODELS • ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY (APT) – is an equilibrium factor model of security returns – Principle of Arbitrage • the earning of riskless profit by taking advantage of differentiated pricing for the same physical asset or security – Arbitrage Portfolio • requires no additional investor funds • no factor sensitivity • has positive expected returns – Example …
  • 6. Curved Relationship Between Expected Return and Interest Rate BetaCurved Relationship Between Expected Return and Interest Rate Beta -15%-15% -5%-5% 5%5% 15%15% 25%25% 35%35% Expected ReturnExpected Return -3-3 -1-1 11 33 Interest Rate BetaInterest Rate Beta AA BB CC DD EE FF
  • 7. • Two stocks A: E(r) = 4%; Interest-rate beta = -2.20 B: E(r) = 26%; Interest-rate beta = 1.83 Invest 54.54% in E and 45.46% in A Portfolio E(r) = .5454 * 26% + .4546 * 4% = 16% Portfolio beta = .5454 * 1.83 + .4546 * -2.20 = 0 With many combinations like this, you can create a risk-free portfolio with a 16% expected return. The Arbitrage Pricing TheoryThe Arbitrage Pricing Theory
  • 8. The Arbitrage Pricing TheoryThe Arbitrage Pricing Theory • Two different stocks C: E(r) = 15%; Interest-rate beta = -1.00 D: E(r) = 25%; Interest-rate beta = 1.00 Invest 50.00% in E and 50.00% in A Portfolio E(r) = .5000 * 25% + .4546 * 15% = 20% Portfolio beta = .5000 * 1.00 + .5000 * -1.00 = 0 With many combinations like this, you can create a risk-free portfolio with a 20% expected return. Then sell-short the 16% and invest the proceeds in the 20% to arbitrage.
  • 9. 9 • No-arbitrage condition for asset pricing If risk-return relationship is non-linear, you can arbitrage. Attempts to arbitrage will force linearity in relationship between risk and return. The Arbitrage Pricing TheoryThe Arbitrage Pricing Theory
  • 10. APT Relationship Between Expected Return and Interest Rate BetaAPT Relationship Between Expected Return and Interest Rate Beta -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% Expected ReturnExpected Return -3 -1 1 3 Interest Rate Beta A B C D E F
  • 11. 11 FACTOR MODELS • ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY (APT) – Three Major Assumptions: • capital markets are perfectly competitive • investors always prefer more to less wealth • price-generating process is a K factor model
  • 12. 12 FACTOR MODELS • MULTIPLE-FACTOR MODELS – FORMULA ri = ai + bi1 F1 + bi2 F2 +. . . + biKF K+ ei where r is the return on security i b is the coefficient of the factor F is the factor
  • 13. 13 FACTOR MODELS • SECURITY PRICING FORMULA: ri = λ0 + λ1 b1 + λ2 b2 +. . .+ λKbK where ri = rRF +(δ1−rRF )bi1 + (δ2− rRF)bi2+ . . . +(δ−rRF)biK
  • 14. 14 FACTOR MODELS where r is the return on security i λ0 is the risk free rate b is the factor e is the error term
  • 15. 15 FACTOR MODELS • hence – a stock’s expected return is equal to the risk free rate plus k risk premiums based on the stock’s sensitivities to the k factors