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Capital Asset Pricing
Theory
 1) The investor will always try to assess what
price is optimal to buy
 We can go by the prevailing market price
 Assess the price payable with the help of historical
data
 Price refers to cost/expected rate of returns
 2) Whether the performance is efficient or not
Portfolio Theory
Portfolio is a mix of more than one security
Invest in individual security : Risk Max
Invest in portfolio : Risk is diversified
Pure Portfolio: Investments are held only in
single security or single class of securities
Mixed Portfolio: Investment in more than one
class or one category
 Passive portfolio – Investments are held till the
end of the investment horizon (Period fixed for
investments)
 Active Investment Portfolio – Investments are
revised periodically (as predetermined by the
investors)
 Aggressive portfolio – the portfolio which is
revised frequently (daily, weekly etc.)
Expected Return and Risk
Empirical Criticisms of Beta
Capital Asset Pricing Model
Arbitrage Pricing Theory
Portfolio Theory
 Investment Portfolio: collection of securities
that together provide an investor with an
attractive trade-off between risk and return
 Portfolio Theory: concept of making security
choices based on portfolio expected returns
and risks
 Check for the optimal investments available
 Securities which provide you with risk surplus
 Any returns more than risk free rate of returns
 Determine the portfolios which are having perfect trade off between
risk and returns
 Any investment portfolio giving returns
 A) Equal to Rf = Moderate priced security
 B) More than Rf = Over priced security
 C) Less than RF = Under priced Security
PORTFOLIO THEORY
Basic Assumptions
 Expected Return: anticipated profit over some relevant
holding period
 Risk: return dispersion, usually measured by standard
deviation of returns
 Probability Distribution: apportionment of likely
occurrences
 Utility: positive benefit
 Disutility: psychic loss
 Risk Averse: desire to avoid risk
PORTFOLIO THEORY
Three Fundamental Assertions
 Investors seek to maximize utility.
 Investors are risk averse: Utility rises with
expected return and falls with an increase in
volatility.
 The optimal portfolio has the highest expected
return for a given level of risk, or the lowest
level of risk for a given expected return.
 Corner Portfolio – Minimum Risk and Maximum
Return portfolio
Portfolio Expected Rate
of Return and Risk
Expected rate of return:
Standard deviation (risk):
   
E R WE R
p i i
i
N



1
     

  






N
i
N
j
j
i
j
i
i
N
i
p R
R
COV
W
W
R
VAR
R
SD W 1 1
1
2
1
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY FUNDAMENTALS
Expected Rate of Return & Risk
Figure 13.2 (c)
Portfolio risk increases with the
volatility of individual holdings
and the extent to which holding
have high covariance.
Optimal Portfolio Choice
 Zero-Risk Portfolio: constant return portfolio
 Efficient Portfolio: portfolio with maximum expected
return for a given level of risk, or minimum risk for a
given expected return
 Efficient Frontier: collection of all efficient portfolios
 Optimal Portfolio: collection of securities that provides
an investor with the highest level of expected utility
 Market Portfolio: all tradable assets
Capital Asset Pricing Model
(CAPM)
Method for predicting
how investment returns
are determined in an
efficient capital market
KEY TERMS
Capital Asset Pricing Model
 capital market line (CML)
 security market line (SML)
 systematic risk
 unsystematic risk
 diversifiable risk
 nondiversifiable risk
 security characteristic line
(SCL)
 positive abnormal returns
 negative abnormal return
 market index bias
 model specification bias
 time interval bias
 nonstationary beta problem
 arbitrage pricing theory (APT)
 arbitrage
CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL
Basic Assumptions
 Investors hold efficient portfolios; higher expected returns
involve higher risk.
 Unlimited borrowing and lending are available at the risk-
free rate.
 Investors have homogeneous expectations.
 There is a one-period time horizon.
 Investments are infinitely divisible.
 No taxes or transaction costs exist.
 Inflation is fully anticipated.
 Capital markets are in equilibrium.
CAPM & Market
Efficiency
 CAPM can test Efficient Market Hypothesis.
 Market is efficient if only risk-free assets give risk-
free rates of return (e.g., Treasury bills).
 Deviations may indicate opportunities.
 Modeling predictions can suggest improvements to
market functioning.
Lending & Borrowing Under
the CPM
 Assumption of unlimited lending and borrowing at
risk-free rate.
 Lending if portion of portfolio held in risk-free
assets.
 Borrowing (leverage) if more than 100% of
portfolio is invested in risky assets.
 Superior returns made possible with lending and
borrowing; creates spectrum of risk preference for
different investors.
CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL
Three Linear Relationships
 Capital Market Line: linear risk-return trade-off for
all investment portfolios
 Security Market Line: linear risk-return trade-off
for individual stocks
 Security Characteristic Line: linear relation
between the return on individual securities and the
overall market at every point in time
CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL
Three Linear Relationships
 Capital Market Line: linear risk-return trade-off for
all investment portfolios
Standard Deviation (total portfolio risk)
E(R)
M
Rf
s = market s
EXPECTED RETURN & RISK
The Capital Market Line (CML)
Linear risk-return trade-off for all investment portfolios given by
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
F
M
R
R
F
R
R
F
M
F
P
R
R
E
R
R
R
E
R
R
E
M
P
P
M






s
s
s
s
EXPECTED RETURN & RISK
The Capital Market Line (CML)
Figure 13.4
Security Market Line (SML)
 Security Market Line: linear risk-return trade-off for
individual stocks
 Systematic Risk: return volatility tied to overall
market; also called nondiversifiable risk
 Unsystematic Risk: return volatility tied specifically to
an individual company; also called diversifiable risk
 Beta: sensitivity of a security’s returns to the
systematic market risk factor
   
 
F
M
F
P R
R
E
R
R
E 

 
CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL
Three Linear Relationships
 Security Market Line: linear risk-return trade-off
for all individual stocks
Systematic Risk
E(R)
M
Rf
 = 1
The BETA Factor
Figure 13.5
The Security
Characteristic Line
 Linear relation between the return on individual securities and
the overall market at every point in time, given by:
 Positive Abnormal Returns: above-average returns that can’t
be explained as compensation for added risk
 Negative Abnormal Returns: below-average returns that
cannot be explained by below-market risk
R R
it i i Mt i
   
 
Empirical Implications of
CAPM
 Optimal portfolio choice depends on market risk-return trade-
offs and individual investors’ differences in risk preferences.
 Relation between expected return and risk is linear for all
portfolios and individual assets.
 Expected rate of return is risk-free rate plus relative risk (ßp)
times market risk premium.
 High beta portfolios earn high risk premiums.
 Low beta portfolios earn low risk premiums.
 Stock price  measures relevant risk for all securities.
EMPIRICAL CRITICISMS OF BETA
MODEL SPECIFICATION PROBLEMS
 CAPM provides only incomplete description of return
volatility—volatility in individual issues can only be described
as a function of overall market volatility.
 Overall market volatility very difficult to measure
 Market Index Bias: distortion to beta estimates due to fact that
indexes are imperfect proxies for overall market
 No single index includes all capital assets, including stocks,
bonds, real estate, collectibles, etc.
 Model Specification Bias: distortion to beta estimates because
SCL fails to include other important systematic influences on
stock market volatility
EMPIRICAL CRITICISMS OF BETA
Data Interval & Nonstationary Beta Problems
 Data Interval Problem: beta
estimation problem derived
from the fact that beta
estimates depend on data
interval studied
 Nonstationary Beta Problem:
difficulty tied to the fact that
betas are inherently unstable
Testable Limitations Of
CAPM
 ß, the slope of the regression of a security’s return on
the market return, is the only risk factor needed to
explain expected return.
 ß captures a positive expected return premium for risk.
 Other risk factors emerge:
 firm size
 low P/E, price/cash flow, P/B, and sales growth

Arbitrage Pricing Theory
(APT)
 Multifactor asset-pricing model that allows
market ßs to represent only one of the firm’s
many risk factors.
 Arbitrage: simultaneous buying and selling of
the same asset at different markets/maturities
 APT suggests that asset returns might be
affected by N risk factors.
APT vs. CPM
 Volatile returns attributable to six-factor APT
models are very unstable—explain very little of
variation in average returns.
 Though both CAPM and APT theory and
evidence confirm relationship between risk and
return, neither approach gives precise estimates.
 Neither provides foolproof test of EMF.
KEY TERMS
Capital Asset Pricing
 investment portfolio
 portfolio theory
 expected return
 risk
 probability distribution
 utility
 disutility
 risk averse
 zero-risk portfolio
 efficient portfolio
 efficient frontier
 optimal portfolio
 market portfolio
 capital asset pricing
model

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Portfolio Valuation - CAPM-APT.ppt

  • 2.  1) The investor will always try to assess what price is optimal to buy  We can go by the prevailing market price  Assess the price payable with the help of historical data  Price refers to cost/expected rate of returns  2) Whether the performance is efficient or not
  • 3. Portfolio Theory Portfolio is a mix of more than one security Invest in individual security : Risk Max Invest in portfolio : Risk is diversified Pure Portfolio: Investments are held only in single security or single class of securities Mixed Portfolio: Investment in more than one class or one category
  • 4.  Passive portfolio – Investments are held till the end of the investment horizon (Period fixed for investments)  Active Investment Portfolio – Investments are revised periodically (as predetermined by the investors)  Aggressive portfolio – the portfolio which is revised frequently (daily, weekly etc.)
  • 5. Expected Return and Risk Empirical Criticisms of Beta Capital Asset Pricing Model Arbitrage Pricing Theory
  • 6. Portfolio Theory  Investment Portfolio: collection of securities that together provide an investor with an attractive trade-off between risk and return  Portfolio Theory: concept of making security choices based on portfolio expected returns and risks
  • 7.  Check for the optimal investments available  Securities which provide you with risk surplus  Any returns more than risk free rate of returns  Determine the portfolios which are having perfect trade off between risk and returns  Any investment portfolio giving returns  A) Equal to Rf = Moderate priced security  B) More than Rf = Over priced security  C) Less than RF = Under priced Security
  • 8. PORTFOLIO THEORY Basic Assumptions  Expected Return: anticipated profit over some relevant holding period  Risk: return dispersion, usually measured by standard deviation of returns  Probability Distribution: apportionment of likely occurrences  Utility: positive benefit  Disutility: psychic loss  Risk Averse: desire to avoid risk
  • 9. PORTFOLIO THEORY Three Fundamental Assertions  Investors seek to maximize utility.  Investors are risk averse: Utility rises with expected return and falls with an increase in volatility.  The optimal portfolio has the highest expected return for a given level of risk, or the lowest level of risk for a given expected return.  Corner Portfolio – Minimum Risk and Maximum Return portfolio
  • 10. Portfolio Expected Rate of Return and Risk Expected rate of return: Standard deviation (risk):     E R WE R p i i i N    1                 N i N j j i j i i N i p R R COV W W R VAR R SD W 1 1 1 2 1
  • 11. INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY FUNDAMENTALS Expected Rate of Return & Risk Figure 13.2 (c)
  • 12. Portfolio risk increases with the volatility of individual holdings and the extent to which holding have high covariance.
  • 13. Optimal Portfolio Choice  Zero-Risk Portfolio: constant return portfolio  Efficient Portfolio: portfolio with maximum expected return for a given level of risk, or minimum risk for a given expected return  Efficient Frontier: collection of all efficient portfolios  Optimal Portfolio: collection of securities that provides an investor with the highest level of expected utility  Market Portfolio: all tradable assets
  • 14. Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Method for predicting how investment returns are determined in an efficient capital market
  • 15. KEY TERMS Capital Asset Pricing Model  capital market line (CML)  security market line (SML)  systematic risk  unsystematic risk  diversifiable risk  nondiversifiable risk  security characteristic line (SCL)  positive abnormal returns  negative abnormal return  market index bias  model specification bias  time interval bias  nonstationary beta problem  arbitrage pricing theory (APT)  arbitrage
  • 16. CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL Basic Assumptions  Investors hold efficient portfolios; higher expected returns involve higher risk.  Unlimited borrowing and lending are available at the risk- free rate.  Investors have homogeneous expectations.  There is a one-period time horizon.  Investments are infinitely divisible.  No taxes or transaction costs exist.  Inflation is fully anticipated.  Capital markets are in equilibrium.
  • 17. CAPM & Market Efficiency  CAPM can test Efficient Market Hypothesis.  Market is efficient if only risk-free assets give risk- free rates of return (e.g., Treasury bills).  Deviations may indicate opportunities.  Modeling predictions can suggest improvements to market functioning.
  • 18. Lending & Borrowing Under the CPM  Assumption of unlimited lending and borrowing at risk-free rate.  Lending if portion of portfolio held in risk-free assets.  Borrowing (leverage) if more than 100% of portfolio is invested in risky assets.  Superior returns made possible with lending and borrowing; creates spectrum of risk preference for different investors.
  • 19. CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL Three Linear Relationships  Capital Market Line: linear risk-return trade-off for all investment portfolios  Security Market Line: linear risk-return trade-off for individual stocks  Security Characteristic Line: linear relation between the return on individual securities and the overall market at every point in time
  • 20. CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL Three Linear Relationships  Capital Market Line: linear risk-return trade-off for all investment portfolios Standard Deviation (total portfolio risk) E(R) M Rf s = market s
  • 21. EXPECTED RETURN & RISK The Capital Market Line (CML) Linear risk-return trade-off for all investment portfolios given by                 F M R R F R R F M F P R R E R R R E R R E M P P M       s s s s
  • 22. EXPECTED RETURN & RISK The Capital Market Line (CML) Figure 13.4
  • 23. Security Market Line (SML)  Security Market Line: linear risk-return trade-off for individual stocks  Systematic Risk: return volatility tied to overall market; also called nondiversifiable risk  Unsystematic Risk: return volatility tied specifically to an individual company; also called diversifiable risk  Beta: sensitivity of a security’s returns to the systematic market risk factor
  • 24.       F M F P R R E R R E    
  • 25. CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL Three Linear Relationships  Security Market Line: linear risk-return trade-off for all individual stocks Systematic Risk E(R) M Rf  = 1
  • 27. The Security Characteristic Line  Linear relation between the return on individual securities and the overall market at every point in time, given by:  Positive Abnormal Returns: above-average returns that can’t be explained as compensation for added risk  Negative Abnormal Returns: below-average returns that cannot be explained by below-market risk R R it i i Mt i      
  • 28. Empirical Implications of CAPM  Optimal portfolio choice depends on market risk-return trade- offs and individual investors’ differences in risk preferences.  Relation between expected return and risk is linear for all portfolios and individual assets.  Expected rate of return is risk-free rate plus relative risk (ßp) times market risk premium.  High beta portfolios earn high risk premiums.  Low beta portfolios earn low risk premiums.  Stock price  measures relevant risk for all securities.
  • 29. EMPIRICAL CRITICISMS OF BETA MODEL SPECIFICATION PROBLEMS  CAPM provides only incomplete description of return volatility—volatility in individual issues can only be described as a function of overall market volatility.  Overall market volatility very difficult to measure  Market Index Bias: distortion to beta estimates due to fact that indexes are imperfect proxies for overall market  No single index includes all capital assets, including stocks, bonds, real estate, collectibles, etc.  Model Specification Bias: distortion to beta estimates because SCL fails to include other important systematic influences on stock market volatility
  • 30. EMPIRICAL CRITICISMS OF BETA Data Interval & Nonstationary Beta Problems  Data Interval Problem: beta estimation problem derived from the fact that beta estimates depend on data interval studied  Nonstationary Beta Problem: difficulty tied to the fact that betas are inherently unstable
  • 31. Testable Limitations Of CAPM  ß, the slope of the regression of a security’s return on the market return, is the only risk factor needed to explain expected return.  ß captures a positive expected return premium for risk.  Other risk factors emerge:  firm size  low P/E, price/cash flow, P/B, and sales growth
  • 32.
  • 33. Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT)  Multifactor asset-pricing model that allows market ßs to represent only one of the firm’s many risk factors.  Arbitrage: simultaneous buying and selling of the same asset at different markets/maturities  APT suggests that asset returns might be affected by N risk factors.
  • 34. APT vs. CPM  Volatile returns attributable to six-factor APT models are very unstable—explain very little of variation in average returns.  Though both CAPM and APT theory and evidence confirm relationship between risk and return, neither approach gives precise estimates.  Neither provides foolproof test of EMF.
  • 35. KEY TERMS Capital Asset Pricing  investment portfolio  portfolio theory  expected return  risk  probability distribution  utility  disutility  risk averse  zero-risk portfolio  efficient portfolio  efficient frontier  optimal portfolio  market portfolio  capital asset pricing model