The document discusses cognitive biases, specifically the confirmation bias, hindsight bias, and anchoring bias, which distort human judgment and decision-making. It explains how these biases, influenced by factors such as emotions and social pressures, lead individuals to favor information that reinforces existing beliefs, misinterpret events as more predictable, and rely heavily on the first piece of information received. Additionally, the text outlines implications of these biases in various scenarios, including political debates and personal decision-making.

1. Compiled by Col Mukteshwar Prasad(Retd),
MTech,CE(I),FIE(I),FIETE,FISLE,FInstOD,AMCSI
Contact -+919007224278, e-mail
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10 Cognitive Biases that destroy your
thinking
Based on About.com

2. Cognitive Bias
 While making judgments and decisions about the world around us, we like to
think that we are
 Objective,
 Logical, and
 Capable of taking in and evaluating all the information that is available to
us.
 The reality is that our judgments and decisions are often
 riddled with errors and
 influenced by a wide variety of biases.
 The human brain is both remarkable and powerful, but certainly subject
to limitations.
 One type of fundamental limitation on human thinking is known as a
cognitive bias.
 A cognitive bias is a type of error in thinking that occurs when people are
processing and interpreting information in the world around them.
 Cognitive biases are often a result of our attempt to simplify information
processing.
 They are rules of thumb that help us make sense of the world and reach decisions

3. Cognitive Bias….
 Cognitive biases can be caused by a number of different things.
 Heuristics, or mental shortcuts, can often lead to such errors.
 Social pressures,
 Individual motivations,
 Emotions, and
 Limits on the mind's ability to process information can also contribute to
these biases.
 These biases are not necessarily all bad.
 Psychologists believe that many of these biases serve an adaptive
purpose - they allow us to reach decisions quickly.
 This can be vital if we are facing a dangerous or threatening
situation.

4. Cognitive Bias….
 Cognitive Bias vs. Logical Fallacy
 People sometimes confuse cognitive biases with logical fallacies, but the two
are not the same.
 A logical fallacy stems from and error in a logical argument,
 while a cognitive bias is rooted in thought processing errors arising from
problems with memory, attention, attribution, and other mental mistakes.
 Inspite of our desire of being rational and logical, we are constantly under
the influence of cognitive biases that distort our thinking, influence our
beliefs, and sway the decisions we make each and every day.
 Sometimes these biases are fairly obvious, and you might even find that
recognize these predispositions.
 Others are so subtle that they are almost impossible to notice.
 The following are just a few of the different cognitive biases that have a
powerful influence on how you think, how you feel, and how you behave.

5. 1. The Confirmation Bias
 We tend to listen more to information that confirms the beliefs we already
have.
 Specially on issues like Reservation ,gun control , global warming etc.
 Rather than listening to the opposing side and consider all the facts in a
logical and rational manner we tend simply to look for things that
reinforce what they already think is true.
 In many cases, people on two sides of an issue can listen to the same
story, and each will walk away with a different interpretation that they feel
validates their existing point of view as often happens in political debates.
 What Is a Confirmation Bias?
 Our beliefs and opinions are not always result of years of experience
and objective analysis of the information available but are susceptible
to a tricky problem known as a confirmation bias.
 Are often based on paying attention to the information that upholds our ideas
and ignoring the information that challenges our existing beliefs.
 A confirmation bias is a type of cognitive bias that involves favoring
information that confirms previously existing beliefs or biases.

6. 1. The Confirmation Bias…..
 What Is a Confirmation Bias?....A confirmation bias is a …
 Whenever this person encounters a person that is both left-handed and
creative, they place greater importance on this "evidence" supporting their
already existing belief.
 This individual might even seek out "proof" that further backs up this belief,
while discounting examples that do not support this idea.
 Confirmation biases impact how people gather information, but they
also influence how people interpret and recall information.
 E.g.people who support or oppose a particular issue will not only seek
information that supports their beliefs, they will also interpret news stories
in a way that upholds their existing ideas and remember things in a way
that also reinforces these attitudes.
 Examples of Confirmation Biases in Action-Consider the debate over gun
control.
 X is in support of gun control. She seeks out news stories and opinion pieces
that reaffirm the need for limitations on gun ownership. When she hears
stories about shootings in the media, she interprets them in a way that
supports her existing beliefs.

7. 1. The Confirmation Bias…..
 The Impact of Confirmation Biases
 A number of experiments conducted during the 1960s demonstrated that
 people have a tendency to seek information that confirms their existing
beliefs.
 Unfortunately, this type of bias can prevent us from looking at situations
objectively, can influence the decisions we make, and can lead to
poor or faulty choices.
 During an election season, for example,
 people tend to seek out positive information that paints their favored
candidates in a good light while looking for information that casts the
opposing candidate in a negative light.
 By not seeking out objective facts, interpreting information in a way that
only supports their existing beliefs, and only remembering details that
uphold these beliefs, people often miss important information that might
have otherwise influenced their decision on which candidate to support.
 Observations
 "Persons believing in extrasensory perception (ESP) will keep close track of

8. 1. The Confirmation Bias…..
 Observations…
 (a) they were thinking about Mom and she didn't call and
 (b) they weren't thinking about Mom and she did call.
 They also fail to recognize that if they talk to Mom about every two weeks,
their frequency of "thinking about Mom" will increase near the end of the
two-week-interval, thereby increasing the frequency of a 'hit.'"
(Goodwin, 2010)
 "We also ignore information that disputes our expectations.
 We are more likely to remember (and repeat) stereotype-consistent
information and to forget or ignore stereotype-inconsistent information,
which is one way stereotypes are maintained even in the face of
disconfirming evidence.
 If you learn that your new Canadian friend hates hockey and loves sailing,
and that your new Mexican friend hates spicy foods and loves rap music,
you are less likely to remember this new stereotype-inconsistent
information."
(Sanderson, 2010)

9. 1. The Confirmation Bias…..
 Observations…
 "Groopman (2007) points out that the confirmation bias can couple with the
availability bias in producing misdiagnosis in a doctor's office.
 A doctor who had jumped to a particular hypothesis as to what disease a
patient has may then ask questions and look for evidence that tends to
confirm that diagnosis while overlooking evidence that would tend to
disconfirm it.
 Groopman suggests that medical training should include a course in
inductive reasoning that would make new doctors aware of such biases.
Awareness, he things, would lead to fewer diagnostic errors. A good
diagnostician will test his or her initial hypothesis by searching for
evidence against that hypothesis."
(Gray, 2011)

10. 2. The Hindsight Bias
 One common cognitive bias involves the tendency to see events, even
random ones, as more predictable than they are.
 This tendency to look back on events and believe that we “knew it all along”
is surprisingly prevalent.
 Following exams, students often look back on questions and think “Of
course! I knew that!” even though they missed it the first time around.
 Investors look back and believe that they could have predicted which tech
companies would become dominant forces.
 What Is a Hindsight Bias?
 They say that hindsight is 20/20. In other words, things always seem
more obvious and predictable after they have already happened.
 What Exactly Is the Hindsight Bias?
 The term hindsight bias refers to the tendency people have to view
events as more predictable than they really are.
 After an event, people often believe that they knew the outcome of the
event before it actually happened.

11. 2. The Hindsight Bias….2
 What Is a Hindsight Bias?..
 The phenomenon has been demonstrated in a number of different situations,
including politics and sporting events.
 In experiments, people often recall their predictions before the event as
much stronger than they actually were.
 Examples of the Hindsight Bias
 Martin Bolt and John Brink (1991) asked college students to predict how the
U.S. Senate would vote on the confirmation of Supreme Court nominee
Clarence Thomas.
 Prior to the senate vote, 58-percent of the participants predicted that he
would be confirmed. When students were polled again after Thomas was
confirmed, 78-percent of the participants said that they thought Thomas
would be approved.
 The hindsight bias is often referred to as the "I-knew-it-all-along
phenomenon."
 It involves the tendency people have to assume that they knew the
outcome of an event after the outcome has already been determined.

12. 2. The Hindsight Bias….3
 What Is a Hindsight Bias?..
 The phenomenon has been demonstrated in a number of different situations,
including politics and sporting events.
 In experiments, people often recall their predictions before the event as
much stronger than they actually were.
 Examples of the Hindsight Bias
 Martin Bolt and John Brink (1991) asked college students to predict how the
U.S. Senate would vote on the confirmation of Supreme Court nominee
Clarence Thomas.
 Prior to the senate vote, 58-percent of the participants predicted that he
would be confirmed. When students were polled again after Thomas was
confirmed, 78-percent of the participants said that they thought Thomas
would be approved.
 The hindsight bias is often referred to as the "I-knew-it-all-along
phenomenon."
 It involves the tendency people have to assume that they knew the
outcome of an event after the outcome has already been determined.

13. 2. The Hindsight Bias….4
 A Student also experience the hindsight bias in studies.
 As you read your course texts, the information may seem easy.
 "Of course," you might think after reading the results of a study or
experiment. "I knew that all along."
 This can be a dangerous habit for students to fall into, particularly when test
time approaches.
 By assuming that you already knew the information, you might fail to
adequately study the test materials.
 When it comes to test time, however, the presence of many different answers
on a multiple choice test may make you realize that you did not know the
material quite as well as you thought you did.
 By being aware of this problem, you can develop good study habits to
overcome the tendency to assume that you 'knew-it-all-along.'
 Explanations for the Hindsight Bias
 Researchers suggest that three key variables interact to contribute to this
tendency to see things as more predictable than they really are.
 First, people tend to distort or even misremember their earlier predictions

14. 2. The Hindsight Bias….5
 Explanations for the Hindsight Bias..First, people .. event.
 As we look back on our earlier predictions, we tend to believe that we
really did know the answer all along.
 Second, people have a tendency to view events as inevitable.
 When assessing something that has happened, we tend to assume that
it was something that was simply bound to occur.
 Finally, people also tend to assume that they could have foreseen certain
events.
 When all three of these factors occur readily in a situation, the hindsight bias
is more likely to occur.
 When a movie reaches its end and we discover who the killer really was,
we might look back on our memory of the film and misremember our initial
impressions of the guilty character.
 We might also look at all the situations and secondary characters and
believe that given these variables, it was clear what was going to
happen.
 You might walk away from the film thinking that you knew it all along,
but the reality is that you probably didn't.

15. 3. The Anchoring Bias
 We also tend to be overly influenced by the first piece of information that we
hear, a phenomenon referred to as the anchoring bias or anchoring effect.
 For example, the first number voiced during a price negotiation typically
becomes the anchoring point from which all further negotiations are based.
 Researchers have even found that having participants choose a
completely random number can influence what people guess when asked
unrelated questions, such as how many countries there are in Africa.
 This tricky little cognitive bias doesn't just influence things like salary or price
negotiations.
 Doctors can become susceptible to the anchoring bias when diagnosing
patients.
 The physician’s first impressions of the patient often create an anchoring
point that can sometimes incorrectly influence all subsequent diagnostic
assessments.
 What Is the Anchoring Bias?
 When people are trying to make a decision, they often use an anchor or focal
point as a reference or starting point.

16. 3. The Anchoring Bias…2
 What Is the Anchoring Bias?
 "People make estimates by starting from an initial value that is adjusted to
yield the final answer," explained Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in a
1974 paper. "The initial value, or starting point, may be suggested by the
formulation of the problem, or it may be the result of a partial computation. In
either case, adjustments are typically insufficient. That is, different starting
points yield different estimates, which are biased toward the initial values."
 Tversky and Kahneman found that even arbitrary numbers could lead
participants to make incorrect estimates.
 In one example, participants spun a wheel to select a number between 0
and 100.
 The volunteers were then asked to adjust that number up or down to
indicate how many African countries were in the U.N.
 Those who spun a high number gave higher estimates, while those who
spun a low number gave lower estimates.
 In each case, the participants were using that initial number as their
anchor point to base their decision.

17. 3. The Anchoring Bias…3
 The Anchoring Bias Can Influence How Much You Are Willing to Pay
 Imagine that you are buying a new car.
 You read online that the average price of the vehicle you are interested in is
$27,000 dollars.
 When you are shopping at the local car lot, the dealer offers you the same
vehicle for $26,500, which you quickly accept - after all, it's $500 less than
what you were expecting to pay.
 Except, the car dealer across town is offering the exact same vehicle for
just $24,000, a full $2,500 less than what you paid and $3,000 less than
the average price you found online.
 Afterwards, you might berate yourself for making such a quick decision and
not shopping around for a better deal.
 So why did you jump so quickly on that first offer?
 The anchoring bias suggests that we favor the first bit of information we
learn. Since your initial research indicated that $27,000 was the average
price, the first offer you encountered seemed like a great deal.
 You overlooked further information, such as the possibility that other

18. 3. The Anchoring Bias…4
 It Can Influence Your Salary Negotiations
 Imagine that you are trying to negotiate a pay raise with your boss.
 You might hesitate to make an initial offer, but research suggests that
being the first one to lay your cards down on the table might actually be
the best way to go.
 Whoever makes that first offer has the edge, since the anchoring effect will
essentially make that number the starting point for all further negotiations.
 Not only that, it will bias those negotiations in your favor.
 That first offer helps establish a range of acceptable counteroffers, and
any future offers will use that initial number as an anchor or focal point.
 One study even found that starting with an overly high salary request
actually resulted in higher resulting salary offers.
 It Influences Much More than Money
 The anchoring effect has an impact on many areas of our daily lives beyond
financial and purchasing decisions. For example:
 How old should your kids be before you allow them to date? Your kid
argues that his or her peers are dating at 14, but you were raised to believe

19. 3. The Anchoring Bias…5
 How long do you expect to live? If your parents were both very long-lived,
you might automatically expect that you will also live a long life. Because of
this anchoring point, you might ignore the fact that your parents lived a
healthier, more active lifestyle that probably contributed to their longevity,
while you eat poorly and are largely sedentary.
 How much television should your children watch each day? If you
watched a great deal of TV as a kid, it might seem more acceptable for your
kids to be glued to the television for hours each day.
 What illness is responsible for a patient's chronic pain? The anchoring
effect can influence a physician's ability to accurately diagnose an illness,
since their first impressions of a patient's symptoms can create an anchor
point that impacts all subsequent assessments.
 As you can see, the anchoring effect as a powerful impact on the choices we
make, from decisions about the things we buy to daily choices about how to
live our lives.
 So the next time you are trying to make an important decision, give a little
thought to the possible impact of the anchoring bias on your choices.
 Are you giving enough consideration to all of the available information and

20. 4. The Misinformation Effect
 Our memories of particular events also tend to be heavily influenced by
things that happened after the actual event itself, a phenomenon known as
the misinformation effect.
 A person who witnesses a car accident or crime might believe that their
recollection is crystal clear, but researchers have found that memory is
surprisingly susceptible to even very subtle influences.
 What Is the Misinformation Effect?
 In an by psychologist Elizabeth Loftus, participants were shown video
footage of a traffic accident. After watching the clip, the participants were
then asked a number of questions about what they had observed like police
officers/ attorneys , One of the questions asked was "How fast were the
cars going when they hit each other?
 " In some instances, however, a subtle change was made; participants were
instead asked how fast the cars were going when they "smashed into" each
other.
 What the researchers discovered was that simply using the word "smashed"
instead of "hit" could change how the participants remembered the accident.
A week later, the participants were once again asked a series of questions,

21. 4. The Misinformation Effect..2
 How can such a minor change lead to such differing memories of the same
video clip?
 Experts suggest that this is an example of the misinformation effect, a
memory phenomenon that can introduce misleading or incorrect
information into memory and even contribute to the formation of false
memories.
 What Is the Misinformation Effect?
 Sometimes when a question contains misleading information, it can actually
distort the memory of the event, a phenomenon that is known as the
misinformation effect.
 Loftus herself has explained, "The misinformation effect refers to the
impairment in memory for the past that arises after exposure to
misleading information."
 Understanding Why the Misinformation Effect Happens
 So why exactly does the misinformation effect happen? There are a few
different theories:
 One explanation is that the original information and the misleading

22. 4. The Misinformation Effect..3
 What Is the Misinformation Effect?...
 In other cases, the pertinent data from the original event may never have
been encoded into memory in the first place, so that when misleading
information is presented, it is incorporated into the mental narrative to fill in
these "gaps" in memory.
 Factors That Influence the Misinformation Effect
 A number of factors contribute to the misinformation effect and make it more
likely that false or misleading information distorts memories of events:
 Time: If misleading information is presented some time after the original
memory, it is likely to be much more accessible in memory. This means that
the misleading information is much easier to retrieve, effectively blocking the
retrieval of the original, correct information.
 Discussing the Event with Other Witnesses: Talking to other witnesses
following an event can distort the original memory of what really happened.
The reports given by other witnesses might conflict with the original memory,
and this new information might reshape or distort the witness's original
memory of events as they occurred.

23. 4. The Misinformation Effect..5
 Factors That Influence the Misinformation Effect
 News Reports: Reading news stories and watching television reports of an
accident or event can also contribute to the misinformation effect. People
often forget the original source of information, which means that they might
mistakenly believe that a piece of information was something they observed
personally when really it was something they heard in a post-event news
report.
 Repeated Exposure to Misinformation: The more often people are
exposed to misleading information, the more likely they are to incorrectly
believe that the misinformation was part of the original event.

24. 5. The Actor Observer Bias
 The way we perceive others and how we attribute their actions hinges on a
variety of variables, but it can be heavily influenced by whether we are the
actor or the observer in a situation.
 When it comes to our own actions, we are often far too likely to attribute
things to external influences.
 You might complain that you botched an important meeting because you
had jet lag or that you failed an exam because the teacher posed too many
trick questions.
 When it comes to explaining other people’s actions, however, we are far
more likely to attribute their behaviors to internal causes.
 A colleague screwed up an important presentation because he’s lazy and
incompetent (not because he also had jet lag) and a fellow student
bombed a test because she lacks diligence and intelligence (and not
because she took the same test as you with all those trick questions).
 What Is the Actor Observer Bias?
 The actor-observer bias is a term in social psychology that refers to a
tendency to attribute one's own actions to external causes, while
attributing other people's behaviors to internal causes. Essentially,

25. 5. The Actor Observer Bias…2
 What Is the Actor Observer Bias? ..
 The actor-observer bias tends to be more pronounced in situations of
neagtive outcomes
 For example, in a situation where a person experiences something negative,
the individual will often blame the situation or circumstances.
 When something negative happens to another person, people will often
blame the individual for their personal choices, behaviors and actions.
 Researchers have found that people tend to succumb to this bias less
frequently with people they know well, such as close friends and family
members.
 Because we have more information about the needs, motivations and
thoughts of these individuals, we are more likely to account for the external
forces that impact behavior.
 Actor-observer bias is a type of attributional bias.
 Understanding the Actor-Observer Bias
 "One potential reason for the actor/observer bias is that when we are the
actor, we cannot literally see our own behavior, and our attention is generally
focused outward on the environment. But when we are the observer, our

26. 5. The Actor Observer Bias…3
 Understanding the Actor-Observer Bias…
 Neural Interface Systems Simultaneously Record and Stimulate
 "The actor/observer bias can produce many misunderstandings and
disagreements. Indeed, in an argument, it may be common for both sides to
see themselves as responding to what the other does. "He started it!" is a
common complaint, often heard on both sides, because each side attributes
its own behavior to the situation but the others' behavior to their traits and
other dispositions. It seems natural to infer that they are fighting because
they are mean, whereas we are fighting because they attacked us. Or, in the
simpler words of pro hockey play Barry Beck on a brawl that broke out in one
game, 'We have only one person to blame, and that's each other!'"
(Baumeister, & Bushman, 2014)

27. 6. The False-Consensus Effect
 People have a tendency to overestimate how much other people agree
with their own beliefs, behaviors, attitudes, and values, an inclination
known as the false consensus effect.
 This can lead people not only to incorrectly think that everyone else agrees
with them – it can sometimes lead them to overvalue their own opinions.
 Researchers believe that the false consensus effect happens for a variety of
reasons.
 First, the people we spend the most time with, our family and friends, do
often tend to share very similar opinions and beliefs. Because of this, we
start to think that this way of thinking is the majority opinion.
 Another key reason this cognitive bias trips us up so easily is that
believing that other people are just like us is good for our self-esteem.
 It allows us to feel "normal" and maintain a positive view of ourselves in
relation to others
 What Is the False Consensus Effect?
 Imagine – your Teacher offers everyone in your class the chance to earn
some extra credit points and gives two options.

28. 6. The False-Consensus Effect…2
 What Is the False Consensus Effect?...
 You quickly sign up for the volunteering opportunity and assume that the vast
majority of your classmates will also pick the same option.
 When you show up at Shramdan on Saturday, you are shocked to find out
that only three other students chose the volunteer option – the rest opted to
write the three-page paper.
 This is a great example of the false consensus effect at work.
 Because you would prefer to volunteer your time to a worthy cause
instead of writing a paper, you assume that the vast majority of other
people also feel the same way you do.
 We gave a tendency to overestimate the degree to which other people agree
with our beliefs, values, attitudes, and behaviors.
 This creates a false consensus, which can influence our decisions and
behaviors.
 The false consensus effect is a type of cognitive bias in which people
mistakenly believe that more people agree with them or share the same
beliefs than the number of people who agree with them in reality.

29. 6. The False-Consensus Effect…3
 Why Does the False Consensus Effect Happen?
 One of the possible causes of the false consensus effect involves what is
known as the availability heuristic.
 When we are trying to estimate how common or likely something is we
tend to look at the examples that come to mind most readily.
 If you are trying to determine if other people share your beliefs, you might
immediately think of people who are the most similar to you (your family and
friends) and it's very likely that they do share many things in common with
you.
 Because these examples come to mind so readily, you might be led to
believe that a higher proportion of the population also shares those same
qualities with you.
 Researchers have suggested that there are three main reasons why false
consensus happens.
 Our family and friends are more likely to be similar to us and share
many of the same beliefs and behaviors.
 Since our primary interactions are with these individuals that are the most
similar to us, we tend to overestimate how much other people also behave

30. 6. The False-Consensus Effect…4
 Why Does the False Consensus Effect Happen?...Believing that …. self-
esteem.
 In order to feel good about ourselves, we are motivated to think that other
people are just like us.
 We are the most familiar with our own attitudes and beliefs.
 Since these ideas are always at the forefront of our minds, we are more likely
to notice when other people share similar attitudes, leading us to
overestimate just how common these beliefs really are.
 Factors That Influence the False Consensus Effect
 False consensus tends to be stronger in situations:
 When the matter in question is of great importance to the individual
 When the behavior, attitude, or belief seems to be directly linked to a
specific situation
 When people are very confident that their point-of-view is correct or more
valid
 False consensus tends to be weaker:
 When beliefs and behaviors actually are shared by the vast majority of

31. 6. The False-Consensus Effect…5
 False consensus tends to be weaker:…..
 The false consensus effect tends to be more prevalent in situations where we
are heavily invested in the issue at hand.
 If you are very concerned about the environment, for example, you will
probably be more likely to overestimate the number of people who are also
very concerned about environmental issues.
 The effect is also stronger in instances where we are very sure that our
beliefs, opinions, or ideas are the correct ones.
 If you are absolutely 100 percent convinced that passing a certain law will
reduce the amount of crime in your community, you are more likely to
believe that the majority of other voters in your town will also support the
passage of the law.
 Finally, we are more likely to fall victim to the false consensus effect in cases
where situational factors play a major role.
 If we believe that our own opinions and preferences stem from external
factors, we also tend to believe that other people will be equally influenced
by these situational variables.
 For example, imagine that you go to see a film, but you think the movie is

32. 6. The False-Consensus Effect…6
 False consensus tends to be weaker:…..
 Since you assume that everyone else viewing the movie is sharing the same
experience and forming the same opinions, you might mistakenly believe that
all the other viewers will also share your belief that the movie is terrible.
 Research on the False Consensus Effect
 The false consensus effect was first named and described in the late 1970s
by researcher Lee Ross and his colleagues.
 In one experiment, the researchers had study participants read about a
situation in which a conflict occurs as well as two different ways of
responding to the conflict.
 The participants were then asked to say which of the two options they
would choose, guess which option other people who probably choose, and
describe the type of people who would choose each of the two options.
 The researchers discovered that no matter which of the options the
participants selected as the one they would choose, they also tended to
believe that the majority of people would also select that option.
 The researchers also found that people tended to give more extreme
descriptions of the characteristics of people who would choose the

33. 6. The False-Consensus Effect…7
 Research on the False Consensus Effect…
 In a second study, Ross and his colleagues asked university students to walk
around campus carrying a large board that said "Eat at Joe's." While some
students refused to participate, but other agreed to wear the sign around
campus. Both those who refused and those who agreed were asked to rate
how likely they thought other students would be to agree to also wear the
billboard. The researchers found that of the students who agreed to wear the
sign, 62 percent believed that others students would also agree to wear the
sign when asked. Of those who refused, only 33 percent felt that other
people would be willing to wear the sign around campus.
 So how did the students estimates compare to the percentages who actually
refused versus agreed to wear the advertisement? The researchers found
that of the students they asked, 60 percent agreed to wear the sign while 40
percent refused.
 Examples of the False Consensus Effect in Action
 Jim's Facebook news feed is filled with stories advocating the legalization of
marijuana.
 As a result, Jim believes that the majority of people across the country

34. 6. The False-Consensus Effect…8
 Examples of the False Consensus Effect in Action…
 This creates a false impression that most of people in the United States
support the legalization of marijuana.
 Stephanie is a strong supporter of animal welfare, and most of her friends
and family members also love animals and support animal-protection causes.
 Since everyone she knows seems to share a similar point of view, she
overestimates how many people will come out to vote for a law regulating
"puppy mills."
 Carl reads conservative magazines, watches conservative television
programs, and hangs out with people who share his conservative politics.
 During a local election, he expects the conservative candidate to win by a
landslide, but it stunned when the liberal candidate wins by a wide margin.
 Due to the false consensus effect, Carl overestimated how many people
in his area shared his political views.
 Steven and his friend Kyle both prefer iced tea over soda.
 They decide to invite a group of friends over to watch a movie.
 Because of their preferences for iced tea, they assume that all of their

35. 6. The False-Consensus Effect…9
 Examples of the False Consensus Effect in Action…Steven and his friend
..same tastes.
 Because of this, they only purchase iced tea to serve at their get-together
instead of buying any other beverages.
 During the party, they are surprised when none of their friends want any of
the iced tea.
 Because they preferred one type of drink, they overestimated that number
of people who would also share those preferences.
 Some additional examples of the false consensus effect include:
 Believing that since you support a candidate for your local city council that
most people in your town also support the same candidate.
 Believing that since you prefer a certain type of cell phone that the majority of
other people also prefer the same device.
 Believing that since you enjoy a certain hobby that most people also find the
hobby interesting an enjoyable.

36. 6. The False-Consensus Effect…10
 Observations….
 "My opinion, my conviction, gains infinitely in strength and success, the
moment a second mind has adopted it."
(Novalis, German poet and philosopher)
 "Furthermore, in addition to being exposed to a biased set of arguments
relevant to a given belief, we are also exposed to a biased sample of people
and their opinions. Liberals associate with fellow liberals; exercise
enthusiasts affiliate with other athletes. Indeed, similarity of beliefs, values,
and habits is one of the primary determinants of those with whom we
associate. As a result, when trying to estimate the percentage of people who
hold a particular belief, examples of people who believe as we do come to
mind more readily than examples of people who believe differently. Our
beliefs thus appear to be quite common. The most direct evidence for the
influence of this mechanism on the false consensus effect is the finding that
people's estimates of the prevalence of smoking are positively correlated with
the number of people they know who smoke."
(Gilovich, 1991)

37. 7. The Halo Effect
 Researchers have found that students tend to rate good-looking
teachers as smarter, kinder, and funnier than less attractive instructors.
This tendency for our initial impression of a person to influence what
we think of them overall is known as the halo effect.
 This cognitive bias can have a powerful impact in the real world.
 For example, job applicants perceived as attractive and likable are also
more liable to be viewed as competent, smart, and qualified for the job.
 What Is the Halo Effect?
 The halo effect is a type of cognitive bias in which our overall impression of a
person influences how we feel and think about his or her character.
Essentially, your overall impression of a person ("He is nice!") impacts your
evaluations of that person's specific traits ("He is also smart!").
 One great example of the halo effect in action is our overall impression of
celebrities.
 Since we perceive them as attractive, successful, and often likeable, we also
tend to see them as intelligent, kind, and funny.

38. 7. The Halo Effect…2
 Definitions of the Halo Effect
 "Also known as the physical attractiveness stereotype and the "what is
beautiful is good" principle, the halo effect, at the most specific level, refers to
the habitual tendency of people to rate attractive individuals more favorably
for their personality traits or characteristics than those who are less attractive.
Halo effect is also used in a more general sense to describe the global
impact of likeable personality, or some specific desirable trait, in creating
biased judgments of the target person on any dimension. Thus, feelings
generally overcome cognitions when we appraise others."
(Standing, L. G., in The SAGE Encyclopedia of Social Science Research
Methods, Volume 1, 2004)
 "In a study made in 1915 of employees of two large industrial corporations, it
appeared that the estimates of the same man in a number of different traits
such as intelligence, industry, technical skill, reliability, ect., etc., were very
highly correlated and very evenly correlated... Ratings were apparently
affected by a marked tendency to think of the person in general as rather
good or rather inferior and to color the judgments of the qualities by this
general feeling. This same constant error toward suffusing ratings of special
features with a halo belonging to the individual as a whole appeared in the

39. 7. The Halo Effect…3
 The History of the Halo Effect
 Psychologist Edward Thorndike first coined the term in a 1920 paper titled
"The Constant Error in Psychological Ratings." In the experiment described
in the paper, Thorndike asked commanding officers in the military to evaluate
a variety of qualities in their subordinate soldiers. These characteristics
included such things as leadership, physical appearance, intelligence, loyalty,
and dependability.
 Thorndike's goal was to determine how ratings of one quality bled over onto
assessments of other characteristics.
 He found that high ratings of a particular quality correlated to high ratings of other
characteristics, while negative ratings of a specific quality also led to lower ratings
of other characteristics.
 ""The correlations were too high and too even," Thorndike wrote. "For example, for
the three raters next studied the average correlation for physique with intelligence
is .31; for physique with leadership, .39; and for physique with character, .28."
 So why do our overall impressions of a person create this halo that
influences our evaluations of specific traits?
 Researchers have found that attractiveness is one factor that can play a role.

40. 7. The Halo Effect…4
 The History of the Halo Effect…….So why …. more intelligent.
 A study found that jurors were less likely to believe that attractive people were
guilty of criminal behavior.
 However, this attractiveness stereotype can also be a double-edged sword.
 Other studies have found that while people are more likely to ascribe a host
of positive qualities to attractive people, they are also more likely to believe
that good-looking individuals are vain, dishonest, and likely to use their
attractiveness to manipulate others.
 Observations
 "In the classroom, teachers are subject to the halo effect rating error when
evaluating their students. For example, a teacher who sees a well-behaved
student might tend to assume this student is also bright, diligent, and
engaged before that teacher has objectively evaluated the student's capacity
in these areas. When these types of halo effects occur, they can affect
students' approval ratings in certain areas of functioning and can even affect
students' grades."
(Rasmussen, Encyclopedia of Educational Psychology, Volume 1, 2008)

41. 7. The Halo Effect…5
 Observations…
 "In the work setting, the halo effect is most likely to show up in a supervisor's
appraisal of a subordinate's job performance. In fact, the halo effect is
probably the most common bias in performance appraisal. The supervisor
may give prominence to a single characteristic of the employee, such as
enthusiasm, and allow the entire evaluation to be colored by how he or she
judges the employee on that one characteristic. Even though the employee
may lack the requisite knowledge or ability to perform the job successfully, if
the employee's work shows enthusiasm, the supervisor may very well give
him or her a higher performance rating than is justified by knowledge or
ability."
(Schneider, F.W., Gruman, J. A., & Coutts, L. M., Applied Social Psychology,
2012)
 The Halo Effect at Work in the Real World
 The halo effect can influence how teachers treat students, but it can also
impact how students perceive teachers.
 In one study, researchers found that when an instructor was viewed as warm and
friendly, students also rated him as more attractive, appealing, and likeable.

42. 7. The Halo Effect…5
 The Halo Effect at Work in the Real World..
 applicants are also likely to feel the impact of the halo effect.
 If a prospective employer views the applicant as attractive or likeable, they
are more likely to also rate the individual as intelligent, competent, and
qualified.
 So, the next time you trying to make an evaluation of another person,
consider how your overall impressions of an individual might influence your
evaluations of other characteristics.
 Does your impression of a candidate being a good public speaker lead you
to feel that she is also smart, kind, and hard-working?
 Does thinking that a particular actor is good-looking also lead you to think
that he is also a compelling actor?
 Being aware of the halo effect, however, does not make it easy to avoid its
influence on our perceptions and decisions.

43. 8. The Self-Serving Bias
 Another tricky cognitive bias that distorts your thinking is known as the
self-serving bias. Basically, people tend to give themselves credit for
successes but lay the blame for failures on outside causes. When you
do well on a project, you probably assume that it’s because you worked
hard. But when things turn out badly, you are more likely to blame it on
circumstances or bad luck. This bias does serve an important role; it
helps protect our self-esteem. However, it does often lead to faulty
attributions, such as blaming others for our own shortcomings.
 What Is the Self-Serving Bias?
 When we are taking in information and making judgments about the world
and events around us, we don't always interpret these things objectively.
Cognitive biases often interfere with how we evaluate information and arrive
at decisions. One such cognitive bias is known as the self-serving bias.
 What is the self-serving bias?
 The self-serving bias refers to our tendency to take personal credit for
success while blaming outside sources for our failures.
 Essentially, we tend to believe that our successes are due to internal traits
and talents, while our failures are caused by variables outside of our control.

44. 8. The Self-Serving Bias …..2
 What is the self-serving bias?....
 If you ace an exam, it's because you studied hard. If you failed, on the other
hand, it's because the teacher didn't explain the subject properly, or the
classroom was too warm, or your roommate kept you up all night before the
exam.
 Why does the self-serving bias occur?
 In many cases, this cognitive bias allows people to protect their self-esteem.
By attributing positive events to personal characteristics, people get a boost
in confidence. By blaming outside forces for failures, people protect their self-
esteem and absolve themselves from personal responsibility.
 A number of factors have been shown to influence the self-serving bias,
including:
 Age: Older adults tend to make more internal attributions.
 Gender: Men may tend to make more external attributions.
 Locus of Control: People with an internal locus of control are more likely to
make internal attributions, while those with an external locus are more likely
to lay the blame on outside factors.

45. 8. The Self-Serving Bias …..3
 A number of factors have been shown to influence the self-serving bias,
including:…
 Depression and Self-Esteem: Depressed individuals are less likely to
engage in the self-serving bias.
 Role in the Situation: People are often more likely to make internal
attributions when they witness other people's failures. However, people
directly involved in a situation are more likely to engage in the self-serving
bias. This is highly related to what is known as the actor-observer bias.
 More Examples of the Self-Serving Bias in Action
 Following a car accident, both parties involved blame the other driver for
causing the crash.
 After a disastrous meeting with a potential client, a businessman blames
losing the account on a competitor.
 A high school basketball player makes a throw during the final seconds of a
game and manages to make a basket. He attributes this to his skill at the
game.
 A student fails an exam. She blames the teacher and accuses the professor

46. 8. The Self-Serving Bias …..4
 Observations
 "There is strong evidence for the self-serving bias. It has the advantage of
encouraging us to persevere even when things are going against us. For
example, unemployed workers are more likely to find work if they exhibit the
self-serving bias, and avoid attributing their failure to obtain a job to their
incompetence or lack of skill."
(Eysenck, 2000)
 "The self-serving bias is widespread in Western cultures such as the United
States and Canada, but it is much less common in East Asian cultures such
as Japan, China, and Taiwan. Unlike Americans, the Japanese tend to
attribute their successes to luck and their failures to lack of ability or talent.
The self-serving bias may be embedded within a cultural ethic in the United
States and other individualistic cultures that place a premium on self-
esteem."
(Nevid, 2013)

47. 9. The Availability Heuristic
 The tendency to estimate the probability of something happening
based on how many examples readily come to mind is known as the
availability heuristic. It is essentially a mental shortcut designed to save us
time when we are trying to determine risk.
 The problem with relying on this way of thinking is that it often leads to
poor estimates and bad decisions. Smokers who have never known
someone to die of a smoking-related illness, for example, might
underestimate the health risks of smoking.
 Definition:
 An availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate
examples that come to mind.
 When you are trying to make a decision, a number of related events or
situations might immediately spring to the forefront of your thoughts.
 As a result, you might judge that those events are more frequent and
possible than others.
 You give greater credence to this information and tend to overestimate the
probability and likelihood of similar things happening in the future.

48. 9. The Availability Heuristic….2
 For example, after seeing several news reports about car thefts, you might
make a judgment that vehicle theft is much more common than it really is in
your area.
 This type of availability heuristic can be helpful and important in decision-
making.
 When faced with a choice, we often lack the time or resources to
investigate in greater depth.
 Faced with the need to an immediate decision, the availability heuristic
allows people to quickly arrive at a conclusion.
 Like other heuristics, the availability heuristic can be useful at times.
 However, it can lead to problems and errors.
 Reports of child abductions, airplane accidents, and train derailments
often lead people to believe that such events are much more typical than
they truly are.
 The term was first coined in 1973 by psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel
Kahneman.
 They suggested that the availability heuristic occurs unconsciously and
operates under the principle that "if you can think of it, it must be

49. 9. The Availability Heuristic….3
 Examples
 After seeing news reports about people losing their jobs, you might start to
believe that you are in danger of being layed-off. You start lying awake in bed
each night worrying that you are about to be fired.
 After seeing several television programs on shark attacks, you start to think
that such incidences are relatively common. When you go on vacation, you
refuse to swim in the ocean because you believe the probability of a shark
attack is high.
 After reading an article about lottery winners, you start to overestimate your
own likelihood of winning the jackpot. You start spending more money than
you should each week on lottery tickets.

50. 9. The Availability Heuristic….4
 Observations
 "Perhaps the most obvious demonstration of availability in real life is the
impact of the fortuitous availability of events or scenarios. Many readers must
have experienced the temporary rise in the subjective probability of an
accident after seeing a car overturned by the side of the road. Similarly, many
must have noticed an increase in the subjective probability that an accident
or malfunction will start a thermonuclear war after seeing a movie in which
such an occurrence was vividly portrayed. Continued preoccupation with an
outcome may increase its availability, and hence its perceived likelihood.
People are preoccupied with highly desirable outcomes, such as winning the
sweepstakes, or with highly undesirable outcomes, such as an airplane
crash. Consequently, availability provides a mechanism by which
occurrences of extreme utility (or disutility) may appear more likely than they
actually are."
(Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, 1973, "Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and
probability." Cognitive Psychology, 5(1), 207-233)
 "The availability heuristic refers to a tendency to form a judgment on the basis of what
is readily brought to mind. For example, a person who is asked whether there are
more English words that begin with the letter t or the letter k might try to think of

51. 9. The Availability Heuristic….5
 Observations
 "People not only consider what they recall in making a judgment but also use
the ease or difficulty with which that content comes to mind as an additional
source of information. Most notably, they only rely on the content of their
recall if its implications are not called into question by the difficulty that they
experience in bringing the relevant material to mind. (Schwarz, Bless, Strack,
Klumpp, Rittenauer-Schatka & Simons, 1991, "Ease of retrieval as
information: Another look at the availability heuristic." Journal of Personality
and Social Psychology, 61(2), 195-€“202)

52. 10. The Optimism Bias
 Another cognitive bias that has its roots in the availability heuristic is known
as the optimism bias. Essentially, we tend to be too optimistic for our own
good.
 We overestimate the likelihood that good things will happen to us while
underestimating the probability that negative events will impact our lives.
 We assume that events like divorce, job loss, illness, and death happen to
other people.
 It can lead people to take health risks like smoking, eating poorly, or not
wearing a seat belt.
 The bad news is that research has found that this optimism bias is
incredibly difficult to reduce.
 There is good news, however.
 This tendency toward optimism helps create a sense of anticipation
for the future, giving people the hope and motivation they need to
pursue their goals.
 So while cognitive biases can distort our thinking and sometimes
lead to poor decisions, they are not always so bad.

53. 10. The Optimism Bias…2
 What Is the Optimism Bias?
 While we often like to think of ourselves as highly rational and logical,
researchers have found that the human brain is sometimes too optimistic for
its own good.
 If you were asked to estimate how likely you are to experience divorce,
illness, job loss, or an accident, you are likely to underestimate the
probability that such events will ever impact your life. This is because your
brain has a built in optimism bias.
 The phenomenon is also often referred to as "the illusion of
invulnerability," "unrealistic optimism," and a "personal fable."
 This bias leads us to believe that we are less likely to suffer from misfortune
and more likely to attain success than reality would suggest.
 We believe that we will live longer than the average, that our children will
be smarter than the average, and that we will be more successful in life
than the average.
 But by definition we can't all be above average.
 The optimism bias is essentially a mistaken belief that our chances of

54. 10. The Optimism Bias…3
 What Is the Optimism Bias?
 This phenomenon was initially described by Weinstein (1980), who found
that the majority of college students believed that their chances of
developing a drinking problem or getting divorced was lower than that of
other students.
 At the same time, the majority of these students also believed that their
chances of positive outcomes like owning their own home and living into
old age were much higher than peers
 The Impact of the Optimism Bias
 The optimism bias doesn’t mean that we have an overly sunny outlook on
our own lives.
 It can also lead to poor decision-making, which can sometimes have
disastrous results.
 People might skip their yearly physical, not wear their seatbelt, miss
adding money to their emergency savings account, or fail to put on
sunscreen because they mistakenly believe that they are less likely to get
sick, get in an accident, need extra cash, or get skin cancer.
 Cognitive neuroscientist Tali Sharot, author of The Optimism Bias: A Tour of

55. 10. The Optimism Bias…4
 This optimism enhances well-being by creating a sense of anticipation about
the future.
 If we expect good things to happen, we are more likely to be happy. This
optimism, she also explained in a 2012 TED Talk, can act as a self-fulfilling
prophecy.
 By believing that we will be successful, people are in fact more likely to be
successful.
 Optimism also motivates us to pursue our goals.
 After all, if we didn't believe that we could achieve success, why would we
even bother trying?
 Optimists are also more likely to take measures to protect their health
such as exercising, taking vitamins, and following a nutritious diet.
 So why are we so geared toward optimism?
 Experts believe that our brains may be evolutionarily wired for seeing the
glass half-full.
 Researchers have suggested various causes that lead to the optimism bias,
including cognitive and motivational factors.

56. 10. The Optimism Bias…5
 But we are also highly motivated to be so optimistic.
 By believing that we are unlikely to fail and more likely to succeed, we
have better self-esteem, lower stress levels, and better overall well-being.
 Factors that make the optimism bias more likely to occur:
 Infrequent events are more likely to be influenced by the optimism bias.
People tend to think that they are less likely to be affected by things like
hurricanes and floods simply because these are generally not every day
events.
 People experience the optimism bias more when they think the events are
under the direct control and influence of the individual. As Sharot described
in her TED Talk, it's not that people believe things will magically work out,
they think that they have the skills and know-how to make it so.
 The optimism bias is more likely to occur if the negative event is perceived as
unlikely. If, for example, a person believes that getting skin cancer is very
rare, he or she is more likely to be unrealistically optimistic about the risks.

57. 10. The Optimism Bias…6
 Factors that decrease the occurrence of the optimism bias:
 Research has also shown that people who are depressed or anxious are less
likely to experience the optimism bias.
 Actually experiencing certain events can reduce the optimism bias.
 People are less likely to experience the optimism bias when they are
comparing themselves to very close loved ones such as friends and family
members.
 While researchers have attempted to help people reduce the optimism bias,
particularly to promote healthy behaviors and reduce risky behaviors, they
have found that reducing or eliminating the bias is actually incredibly difficult.
 In studies that involved attempts to reduce the optimism bias through actions
such as educating participants about risk factors, encouraging volunteers to
consider high-risk examples, and educating subjects and why they were at
risk, researchers have found that these attempts led to little change and in
some instances actually increased the optimism bias. For example, telling
someone the risks of dying from a particular habit such as smoking can
actually make them more likely to believe that they will not be negatively
affected by the behavior.