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Why Projects Fail – The Need to “Do the Right Project” and “Do the Project Right”

APM event hosted by the Wessex Network on 29 January 2026 Speakers: Anca Popa MBA ChPP, Principal P3M Consultant, Costain Group plc Cesar Rendora CEng FICE ChPP FAPM, Senior Project Manager, Jacobs Systems Thinking has become very topical for project professionals leading to its inclusion in BOK 8 and the recent APM guide to picking the right projects. This session will introduce some Systems Thinking concepts and illustrate them in practice with case studies. Systems thinking is both a mindset and a toolset that project professionals benefit from using, particularly in complex projects where emergence (changes to needs and requirements during the project) is probable. Trying to stick to the baseline plan in complex projects can lead to massive delays and cost overruns while delivering much reduced benefits – systems thinking helps refocus on delivering the target benefits at the expense of adherence to the original plan.

Education◦
Why Projects Fail – The Need to “Do the Right Project” and “Do the Project Right” Systems Thinking Interest Network 29th January 2026 Cesar Rendora CEng FICE ChPP FAPM Anca Popa, MBA, ChPP
Anca Popa, ChPP, MBA Principal P3M Consultant, Costain Member of APM Systems Thinking Interest Network Delivering transport industry change initiatives where legacy systems and processes require replacing to meet compliance deadlines. Cesar Rendora CEng FICE ChPP FAPM Senior Project Manager, Jacobs Deputy Lead of APM Systems Thinking Interest Network Engineering Consultant, Delivery of Major Programmes (UK and Overseas), Engineering Management & Technical Assurance, Leading multi-disciplinary team, Quality Assurance, Stakeholder coordination
Agenda © 2026 Association for Project Management 3 Why projects fail? Introduction to Guide 1 Key reasons to apply Systems Thinking in doing the right project What is systems thinking Case studies Introduction to Guide 2 Key reasons to apply Systems Thinking in doing the project right Q&A
© 2026 Association for Project Management 4 What do you wish to takeaway from today's presentation?
Doing the right project: What is covered ? • The benefits for Project professionals of employing systems thinking • Part A: An introduction to ST and when to use it as projects moves from simple to complexity • Part B: Recommendations on how to employ systems thinking at early stages • Part C introduces some tools and techniques, with examples, strengths and weaknesses © 2026 Association for Project Management 5 Using a systems thinking approach to select successful projects
Why we wrote Guide 1? © 2026 Association for Project Management 6 To increase project success Improving stakeholder engagement Especially between solution providers and project beneficiaries Project success is achieved by Improving shared understanding and working relationships Recognising and managing uncertainty and complexity in the environment By being prepared for emergent requirements and changes Enhancing project benefits through improving stakeholder identification By better understanding their needs, wants, motivations and Critical Success Criteria
Why should project professionals be interested in Systems Thinking?
Why use Systems Thinking? © 2026 Association for Project Management 8
Key reasons © 2026 Association for Project Management 9 Better understanding of the problem and its causes Understanding uncertainties and complexity Planning to handle emergence Will the ‘solution’ proposed fix the problem, or move it elsewhere? Identifying leverage points where interventions have greater impact Is the project able to deliver the solution successfully within constraints?
© 2026 Association for Project Management 10 Complexity generates unforeseen problems Complicated systems are 'ordered' - with predictable and repeatable behaviours Complex systems have emergent properties that cannot be predicted in advance Cars are complicated. Driving is complex
Systems Thinking – What it is
The world is made up of: • interconnected, hierarchically organised entities • technical, social and natural • that adapt to their local and global environments With behaviours that cannot be predicted by: • analysing the behaviours of their parts • individually and separately. Systems Thinking © 2026 Association for Project Management 12
© 2026 Association for Project Management 13 “The consequences of an action may not be known from the experience; the agent and those affected or concerned need not share a present, geographical space and social life-world.” Ulrich Werner (1994)
To do Systems Thinking, one must be able to see both the whole Forest and the individual Trees all at the same time. Systems Thinking © 2026 Association for Project Management
Context diagram © 2026 Association for Project Management 15 Stakeholder map Project Manager Programme Manager Systems Engineer Tester Software Developer Electrical Engineer Mechanical Engineer Quality Assurance Production Lead Installation Engineer Maintenance Engineer PMO Sales Train Operating Company Installation Project Manager COO Project Finance Outside-UK Manufacturing Accreditation Bodies Service Support National and global environment Other TOCs Train station staff TOC Service support Related projects Passengers Other TOC service providers Competition Shareholders Market Analysts Industry wide back-office providers Taxpayers DfT Environmental factors Lower influence but important Able to influence Under direct control
© 2026 Association for Project Management 16 “Systems Thinking is a discipline for seeing wholes rather than parts, for seeing patterns of change rather than static snapshots, and for understanding the subtle inter-connectedness that gives (living) systems their unique character.” Peter Senge (1990)
Systems Thinking uses a set of tools to explore and map dynamic complexity © 2026 Association for Project Management 17 Approaches to think about and frame dynamically complex problems. Diagram tools to explore and map dynamic complexity. A vocabulary with which to express understanding of dynamic complexity. Method(s) to apply those approaches and tools coherently.
Let’s see real-world examples: Case Studies
Case study 1 - NHS Direct - What was the aim? 19
I’m not well, where do I turn? 20
A new go-to place … 21
Using new hosting … 22
With many teams supporting … 23
Project Organisation 24
25 Causal Loop Diagram – Identifying Critical Success Criteria
The Solution 26
Case study 2: The right project done wrong © 2026 Association for Project Management 27 Digital Rail Ticketing using ITSO – A tale of using an existing easy fix without considering unintended consequences Better and more efficient rail tickets (smartcard) Adoption of smartcard (ITSO) Tickets stored and collected Cost of sale Journeys purchased on multiple media (paper, barcode, smartcard) Missed trains and paper tickets Fix Problem symptom Unintended consequences Desired benefit Investments in integrating various ticket media Demand for smart ticketing specialists Fixes that fail architype Queues for season tickets Passenger satisfaction System complexity in handling ticket and fares management
Our “Guide 2” - Doing the project right • This is work in progress • Follows a different approach to Guide 1: o Separate focused guides on themes will be published o Held together by an overall map aligned with the project lifecycle and stage of the project professional’s career • We aim to make content available quicker this way We welcome your case studies! © 2026 Association for Project Management 28 Using a systems thinking approach to deliver projects successfully
Key reasons © 2026 Association for Project Management 29 Focus on benefits realisation rather than sticking to the baseline Supporting ongoing impact assessment - risk, sustainability, resilience, change Stakeholder perspectives: Identifying conflicts of interest Stakeholder perspectives: building trust and commitment Identifying further uncertainties Managing emergence
References • Senge, P. 1990. The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization. New York: Doubleday. • Systems Thinking Interest Network (2025). Doing the Right Project - Using a Systems Thinking Approach to Select Successful Projects. London: Association for Project Management • Ulrich, W. (1994) Can We Secure Future-Responsive Management Through Systems Thinking and Design?. Interfaces 24(4):26-37. doi:10.1287/inte.24.4.26 © 2026 Association for Project Management 30
Quiz time!
What are the Titles of our Guide 1 book and Guide 2 future books? © 2026 Association for Project Management 32
A Phenomenon or Concept that is present in a System but not present when considering the individual parts or components of a System. © 2025 Association for Project Management 33
34 Thank you, Anca Popa, MBA, ChPP (anca.popa@costain.com) Cesar Rendora CEng FICE ChPP FAPM (cesar.rendora@jacobs.com) APM Systems Thinking Interest Network https://www.apm.org.uk/community/systems-thinking-interest-network/ Join us! © 2026 Association for Project Management
35 © 2026 Association for Project Management Quick Feedback Survey Guide 1 – Discount Code Use code WESSEX20 to get 20% off this specific title, Valid from 29 Jan to 6 Feb 2026. It cannot be used in conjunction with other offers.
© 2024 Association for Project Management 36 Wessex RN’s next event in March