This document discusses voter turnout trends in New Zealand and other democracies, why declining turnout is problematic, and potential reforms to address this issue. It notes that voter turnout in New Zealand and other countries has declined significantly since the mid-20th century, with younger, less educated, and less wealthy citizens turning out the least. The speaker argues this unequal turnout can undermine representative democracy and produce policies favoring those who do vote. Several reforms are proposed to boost participation, such as compulsory voting or citizens' assemblies to involve the public more directly in democratic reforms. New Zealand is cited as pioneering some citizen-oriented reforms already.

1. DEMOCRACY FIT FOR CITIZENS?
NEW ZEALAND IN CONTEXT
Prof David Farrell, University College Dublin
Wellington, New Zealand

2. Democracy fit for citizens?
New Zealand in context
Valuing our Vote conference, Wellington, New
Zealand, May 29, 2014
David Farrell
University College Dublin
An Coláiste Ollscoil, Baile Átha Cliath

3. 1. What’s happening to voter turnout?
2. Why low voter turnout matters?
3. Is democracy doomed?
4. A democracy fit for the 21st century?

4. 1. What’s happening to voter turnout?

5. 30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1946
1949
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
New Zealand
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Switzerland
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1948
1952
1956
1958
1960
1964
1968
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
Sweden
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Malta

9. 2. Why low voter turnout matters?

11. “If you don’t vote you don’t count”
Walter Dean Burnham
• Less educated
• Younger citizens
• Less well-to-do

12. • Less educated
– Rising education levels helps turnout
– Challenge is to maintain rising education levels
• Young
– Generational vs. life-cycle effects
• Older people vote more (the “grey vote”)
• “Footprints” of declining turnout feeding through
successive generations
– Policy implications: Grey vote prioritised
– Why lower turnout among youth?

13. “If you prefer vinyl records, like Frank
Sinatra, don’t cross the street when
the light is red, pay your taxes
promptly and fully, and answer the
letter to serve on a jury—these are the
bellwethers of duty-based norms of
citizenship…”
“… If you own an iPod, know who Bono is, cross streets on
the red if there is no traffic, don’t vote but are a civic
volunteer, and worry, as much about the fate of the world
as the fate of your city, then you probably lean toward
norms of engaged citizenship.”
Russell Dalton: two types of citizens

14. • Less well-to-do
– Harold Gosnell (1927): turnout increases with
economic status
– Most (not all) research agrees
The inequality spiral:
Rising inequality…
 results in socio-economically biased turnout
 determining who gets elected & content of policies
 producing less pressure on politicians to address
inequality
 resulting in rising inequality

15. How to increase turnout?
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16. What about compulsory voting?
• The greatest potential to raise turnout
• Points in favour
– Help to address inequality in representation
– Spill over impact on participation generally
– Reduce the cost of elections and negative
campaigning
• Points against
– Anti-democratic to force people to vote
– Forcing those without knowledge or interest to vote
– Could see a rise in votes for extremists

17. 3. Is democracy doomed?

18. • Peter Mair: “stripped down democracy”
– Voter volatility rising
– Party attachment declining
– Party membership declining
• Ian Marsh & Raymond Miller: “thin”
democracy

19. Decline or Evolution?
• Democratic evolution
– Behavioural changes
– Institutional reforms

20. Table 1: Institutional reforms in Europe: 1990-2010 (number)
Total Substantial
Decentralization 58 20
Electoral reform 29 7
Public subsidies 28 2
Parliament reform 23 10
Suffrage access 16 1
Direct election 13 8
Direct democracy 6 3
Total 173 51
Source: Bedock et al. (2012: Figure 1)

21. A new democratic transformation?
1st wave
• Dahl’s “polyarchy”
• Introduction of elections to most
offices
• Mass suffrage extension
• Freedom for all parties to
compete in elections
2nd wave
• Elections for more offices (e.g.
mayor, regional assemblies)
• Direct democracy (citizen
initiatives)
• Democratic processes within
parties (e.g. candidate selection)
• Easier access to administration
(e.g. Freedom of Information)
• Citizen inclusion in policy and
institutional debates (e.g.
citizens’ assemblies, citizens’
juries, participatory budgeting)

22. Irish Constitutional Convention
Citizen members
Note taker
Facilitator
Politician

23. Including citizens in the reform agenda
• The entity (jury, assembly, etc.) is established
with a particular purpose in mind;
• Clearly defined agenda;
• Members know how their recommendations will
be followed up on;
• Its operation is time-delimited;
• Members are selected randomly;
• An important role for experts as witnesses;
• Deliberation

24. 4. A democracy fit for the 21st century?
• New Zealand: a trail-blazer in citizen-oriented
reform
– The electoral reform referendums (1993; 2011)
– The Constitutional Advisory Panel’s “conversation”
(2013)
• A New Zealand citizens’ assembly on the
electoral process?