The document discusses theories for explaining lower voter turnout rates among Māori compared to non-Māori in New Zealand elections. It proposes that isolation theory, developed to explain historic low black voter turnout in the US, may also help explain the Māori turnout gap. For over a century, structural barriers like underrepresentation in the Māori electorates may have politically isolated Māori communities and prevented the development of social networks that facilitate voter participation. While economic exclusion still exists, political isolation can potentially be overcome by consciously developing new political networks, as demonstrated by increased black voter turnout in the US over the past 50 years.

1. MAORI PARTICIPATION
Morgan Godfery, writer/political commentator
Wellington, New Zealand

2. What do we know about the Māori
non-vote?
• The turnout gap emerged in 1935 (Vowles & Aimer,
1993). It has not closed.
• Lower participation rates reflect demographic
characteristics, not cultural characteristics (UMR,
2006).
• However, cultural identity affects role selection and
might affect faith in government and politics
(Fitzgerald, Stevenson, & Tapiata, 2007).

3. What explains the turnout gap?
• The orthodox theories hold that a non-vote will occur when
the cost of voting outweighs the benefit derived from voting.
• The most common theories are rational choice theory,
resource-based theories, public choice theory (e.g.
behavioural economics), positive political economy and so
on.
• These theories explain why social and economic factors
are important. But is there a theory that can account for
ethnicity too?

4. Isolation theory
• Developed in the United States to explain the “long-
lasting impact of growing up prior to the availability of
full political participation for blacks” (Winburn,
Henderson, & Sullivan, 2013).
• Isolation theory holds that structural barriers, like voter
suppression efforts, led to blacks of that era becoming
disengaged from voting (Orum, 1966; Danigelis,
1978).

5. Isolation theory and Māori
• The structural barrier for Māori voters? The Māori electorates. That
seems counterintuitive…
• But for more than a century Māori voters were underrepresented. The
number of electorates was capped despite explosive growth in the
Māori population. Voting in the electorates even occurred on a different
day.
• The electorates were finally tied to population on the introduction of
MMP. However, unlike general electorates, Māori electorates are not
entrenched. Some residue of inequality remains.
• Structural conditions influence group characteristics. The Māori
electorates created political isolation in many Māori communities. The
networks that facilitate participation did not develop.

6. The importance of networks
• McClurg (2006) finds that social networks can
encourage political participation.
• Networks socialise people into the political system and
the political process. Māori appear less likely to be
born into an existing network, they must integrate into
one later in life (e.g. when they acquire, say, an
education and the political knowledge and networks
that come with it).

7. Beware: no one has tested this
empirically
• Any discussion about non-participation must reference
historical political exclusion and contemporary
economic exclusion. Why? Because it prevents
political networks from developing.
• In the US, isolation was overcome by developing
networks among blacks. From church groups to youth
groups. Young black women are now the group most
likely to vote. Half a century ago they were the group
least likely to vote.

8. Where to from here?
• So, political isolation can be overcome – despite
existing economic exclusion. The experience in the US
shows this.
• The form this will take is the subject of another
session, but any discussion cannot ignore developing
political networks. In the US legislation, regulation and
better targeting methods were used to develop black
political participation. The challenge in New Zealand is
to use all the tools at our disposal too.