- Asian countries experienced a rapid demographic transition over a short period due to public health programs and medical technologies from Europe. This led to declining fertility rates and changing population age structures across the region. - While East Asian countries like China and South Korea now have aging populations with fewer youth and more elderly, South Asian countries like India and Bangladesh still have youth bulges but will see aging increase in coming decades. - All Asian countries will need to address declining support ratios, with fewer working age people to support more elderly. Countries will also need policies to deal with future labor shortages from aging workforces.

1. Determinants of changing
demographic structure in Asia:
Implications for future
Leela Visaria
Shanghai, PC of China,
July 2018

2. Outline
• Demographic transition compressed in short span
in all Asian countries
• However, timing of transition has differed between
Asian countries
• This has resulted in variations in population
growth and age structure
• Consequence of variations highlighted with
support ratios
• Implications of these for future examined in
country-specific context

3. Compression of Demographic Transition
in Asian countries
• Asian countries benefited from transfer and diffusion of
public health programs and medical technologies
developed by European countries.
• Succeeded in reducing death rate, IMR and increasing life
expectancy in very short span.
• Lowered fertility by using effective modern contraceptive
methods or altering marriage patterns much.
• Government interventions in promoting family planning
more important than improvements in levels of education
or income.
• Took about 25 years for most East Asian countries to lower
TFR from around 6 to replacement level and will take
about 35 years for South Asian countries.

4. Fertility Decline in select Asian countries
Country Year TFR Year TFR No. of years to
reach
replacement
level or near it
China 1970 5.5 1992 2.1 22
South Korea 1960 6.2 1984 2.0 24
Thailand 1970 5.6 1991 2.1 21
Indonesia 1970 5.5 2010 2.1 40
India 1980 5.5 2015 2.3 By 2020?
Bangladesh 1980 6.4 2015 2.1 35
Pakistan 1990 6.0 2015 3.6 By 2030?
Iran 1980 6.5 2002 2.0 32
Saudi Arabia 1990 6.0 2015 2.7 By 2020-25?

5. Population in select Asian countries,
1980, 2015 and 2035 (in million)
Country 1980 2000 2020 2035
China 978 1270 1402 1408
South Korea 37 46 51 53
Thailand 47 63 69 67
Indonesia 147 212 272 305
India 697 1053 1389 1585
Bangladesh 81 131 170 192
Pakistan 78 138 208 262
Iran 39 66 83 90
Saudi Arabia 10 21 34 41

6. Impact of fertility decline on population
age structure
• Population age structure is affected by past changes in
fertility (more than in mortality).
• With fertility decline young dependency ratio declines.
• Over long run, if fertility continues to decline to a level
much below the replacement, (Ex: Japan), the share of
population of working age declines and that of older
persons increases, leading to rise in old age
dependency ratio.
• Fertility reduction brings demographic bonus as youth
bulge for a limited period but sustained fertility
decline creates labour shortages.

7. Broad Age groups of
China and South Korea,
1980-2030
• The share of young
dependents in China
and South Korea
became less than half
in 30 years. Will
continue downward
trend in coming
decades.
• The share of those in
working ages will soon
start declining.
• By 2030, one in five in
China and one in four
in South Korea will be
above age 65.
36.2
59.4
4.4
17.1
73.1
9.5
15.0
68
17.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0-14 15-64 65+
1980
2015
2030
China
33.8
62
3.8
14
73
13.113.2
63.1
23.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0-14 15-64 65+
1980
2015
2030
South Korea

8. Broad Age groups of
Thailand and
Indonesia, 1980-2030
• Onset of fertility decline
began a little later in
Thailand but its age
structure will soon be like
that of China.
• Every fifth person in
Thailand will be 65+ by
2030.
• Indonesia is currently in
the phase of demographic
dividend and if it seizes
the opportunity, can
experience economic
development.
39.4
56.8
3.8
17.7
71.9
10.6
13.9
66.6
19.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0-14 15-64 65+
1980
2015
2030
Thailand
41.1
55.3
3.6
27.6
67.1
5.3
23.4
68.2
8.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0-14 15-64 65+
1980
2015
2030
Indonesia

9. Broad Age groups of
India and Bangladesh,
1980-2030
• The share of young
dependents in south Asian
countries of India and
Bangladesh have declined
in recent decades but that
of aged has increased a
little, giving them a
window of opportunity
with large proportion in
working ages.
• Both countries must invest
in human development –
education, health – to reap
the benefits of
demographic dividend.
39.2
57.2
3.6
28.9
65.6
5.4
23.9
67.6
8.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0-14 15-64 65+
1980
2015
2030
India
44.7
52.3
3.0
29.6
65.6
5.0
23.0
69.5
7.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0-14 15-64 65+
Bangladesh
1980
2015
2030

10. Broad Age groups of
Pakistan and Saudi
Arabia, 1980-2030
• With third of its population
under 15 years, Pakistan has
one of the highest young
populations in Asia.
• Pakistan must invest in
education and training of
youth to lift the country out
of troubled phase and on path
to sustained development.
• Saudi Arabia will have
succeeded in reducing its
young dependency by 2030.
• With immigrants constituting
large share of its working
population, its work force
gives it an advantage.
42.9
53.2
3.9
35
60.5
4.4
30.6
63.9
5.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0-14 15-64 65+
Pakistan
1980
2015
2030
44.4
52.4
2.8
28.6
68.6
2.8
22.5
70.8
6.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0-14 15-64 65+
Saudi Arabia
1980
2015
2030

11. Broad Age groups of
Iran, 1980-2030
• Iran’s fertility fell rapidly and
has entered the demographic
window of opportunity with
robust human development
through education much like
what East Asian countries did
20 years ago.
• With much smaller share of
both young and old
dependents, Iran’s work force
is conducive to increasing
productivity.
• This trajectory has important
implications for Iran’s
economic and political
development.
43.5
53.5
3.0
23.6
71.0
4.9
18.0
72.5
9.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0-14 15-64 65+
Iran
1980
2015
2030

12. Old Age support ratio
• All Asian countries will experience increase in 65+ population in
coming decades, the old age dependency will place burden on
those in working ages.
• The burden, expressed as old-age support ratio, is calculated as the
number of people in the age group 15-64 per one person aged 65+.
• It assesses the consequences of the current and future
demographic structure on the allocation of resources across
generations.
• Due to lagged effect of convergence in fertility rates, there is a
temporal variation in convergence between East and South Asian
countries in support ratio.
• Falling trend in support ratio depicts the increasing costs of
supporting the consumption of increasing number of dependent
elderly population.

13. Old age support ratio, select countries,1980-2030
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
China
South Korea
Thailand
Indonesia
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
24.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
India
Bangladesh
Pakistan
Iran

14. Implications of declining old age
support ratio
• By 2030, except for Indonesia, the other three East
Asian countries will have less than five workers to
support one elderly above 65 years.
• Without adequate institutional support and sustainable
pension system in place, this burden on families would
become a demographic challenge.
• The South Asian countries with more than eight
workers to support the aged will be in advantageous
position but not for long.
• Dependence of families, prevalent in these societies, is
unlikely to work with younger better educated
generation becoming more mobile and individualistic.

15. How can East Asian countries respond to
changing population structure?
• Due to few new entrants to labour force and aging of the
labour force, all countries will face labour shortages – some in
the short run and some in the medium run.
• For those countries that face labour shortage now or in very
near future some appropriate policy responses that can be
considered are:
- improve skills of older labour force population.
- Postpone retirement age.
- Increase women’s participation in work.
- relax restrictive immigration laws.
- Collect higher contributions from workers and
employers.
• Acceptability of such measures and their implementation
would depend on political climate in each country.
15

16. How can South Asian countries respond to
changing age structure?
• South Asia countries are in demographically advantageous
position because they will have fewer dependents compared
to recent past and a large pool in the working ages.
• The demographic advantage will last about 30-35 years.
• The countries need to make investments in human capital -
education, health, infrastructure - needed to spur economic
growth.
• Invest in quality education, and skills formation of youth.
• High malnourishment among children that adversely affects
cognitive development, poor education outcomes, must
receive priority for productive future work force.
• If ignored, countries may witness increase in social unrest,
political upheaval.

17. Increasing women’s participation in work
• Employment opportunities for women due to
reduction in number of children they bear, expansion
of higher education and rise in service sector in many
Asian countries.
• Need to create enabling conditions for women to
stay in employment by training them in jobs, creating
supportive services to reduce their multiple burdens
of rearing children, caring for elderly and household
responsibilities.
• The patriarchal societies will have to educate men to
take more domestic responsibility.
17

18. Relaxing Restrictive Immigration Laws
• A better regulated labour market and migration policies are
needed to facilitate entry, stay and work environment for
migrants.
• Restrictive immigration policies increase illegal and
undocumented migration increasing vulnerability, insecurity
and exploitation of migrants.
• Migration of young workforce from labour surplus poorer
countries to rich labour deficit countries can contribute to
economic well-being of receiving countries and alleviate
poverty of workers from sending countries.
• The likely tensions between local population and migrants
with different ethnic, cultural, linguistic backgrounds that
have restricted international migration as a viable option need
to be addressed to benefit all. 18

19. Thank You