22May2017 - If young people ruled the world...DEBATE

If young people ruled the world?
...Maximising the voice of younger
people in an ageing society
An ILC-UK Partners Programme Debate
Monday 22nd May 2017
This event is kindly supported by ILC-UK Partners Programme
Twitter #youthvote

Welcome from ILC-UK
Baroness Sally Greengross
Chief Executive
ILC-UK
Twitter #youthvote

Dr James Sloam
Reader in Politics and International Relations
Royal Holloway, University of London
How can we improve the political
participation of younger people?
Twitter #youthvote

Dean Hochlaf
Assistant Economist
ILC-UK
ILC-UK Analysis
Twitter #youthvote

The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Dean Hochlaf, Assistant Economist, ILC-UK
follow us on twitter: @ilcuk @bjafranklin @dhochlaf
Disengagement, Democracy
and Demographics
How demographic change silenced the voice of a
generation

Are the young disengaged?
 18-24 year olds are more likely than any other group to report low levels of knowledge
concerning politics.
 18-24 year olds and 25-34 year olds are the two groups least likely to feel getting involved in
politics is effective. (Apostolova et al. 2017)
 Mycock and Tonge (2012) note “many young people feel they are uniquely isolated” from a
“self serving political system”.
 77% of those between 18-34 educated to degree level were registered to vote in December
2015. Only 57% without a qualification were registered.
 Only 43% of those between 20-24 voted in 2015. 78% of those above 65 voted (IpsosMORI).
 Even an issue like Brexit – where young people predominantly voted to remain – saw turnout
levels lower than older groups.

General Election voting trends
Source: British Election Studies Information System
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
1964 1966 1970 1974-Feb 1974-Oct 1979 1983 1987 1992 1997 2001 2005 2010 2015
%
Voter turnout since 1964
Under 35 35-54 55 and over

Voting across generations
Source: Ipsos MORI –How Britain voted since 1974
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Oct-74 1979 1983 1987 1992 1997 2001 2005 2010 2015
%
18-24 voting preference
Conservative Labour Liberal

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Oct-74 1979 1983 1987 1992 1997 2001 2005 2010 2015
%
25-34 voting preference

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1987 1992 1997 2001 2005 2010 2015
% 65+ voting preference

Can the young win a General Election?
 To test the extent of electoral power among the young, we looked at
the 2015 election.
 Using data on constituency population, voter preference and the
results of the 2015 election in England and Wales, we looked at what
would happen if the turnout rate of the young matched the over-65s
and their votes reflected the national trend by age.
 We found that this only would have made a difference in 11
constituencies – 9 Conservative and 2 Liberal Democrat seats would
have swung to Labour

Swing seats
 Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport
 Derby North
 Croydon Central
 Gower
 Brighton Kemptown
 Thurrock
 Vale of Clwyd
 Morley and Outwood (Ed Ball’s seat)
 Bury North
 Leeds North West
 Sheffield, Hallam (Nick Clegg’s seat)

Old age unity
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Con Lab LD UKIP Green Oth
%ofvoters
Voter preference - 2015 General Election
18-24 25-34 65+
Source: Ipsos MORI –How Britain voted in 2015

Outnumbered
15.53%
19.37%
65.10%
Majority age group by constituency
18-34 34-55 55+
Source: ONS and author’s calculations

What about Brexit
 Applying the same methodology, we looked at the EU referendum.
 With a binary choice and the election not determined by geographic
location, we might expect young people to have more of an impact.
 Young people were more united as well:
– 75% of people between 18-24 year olds voted remain.
– 60% of people between 25-34 year olds voted remain.
 In contrast, 63% of over 75s voted to Leave, while 66% of those
between 65-74 voted to Leave.
 Would the young turnout have changed the result

The EU Referendum – before and after
47.87%
52.13%
Before
Remain Leave
49.6350.37
After
Remain Leave
Source: Ipsos Mori, ONS and author’s calculations

but when we consider Scotland and Wales
50.5349.47
EU Referendum results with higher youth turnout
Remain Leave
Source: BBC, EU Referendum Results and previous slides analysis

Potential issues
 Young people are not homogenous. If young people are
already opting not to vote, they might not necessarily cast their
ballots for mainstream parties.
 While the number of people over 65 is set to rise considerably
over the next few decades (almost 70% by 2050 according to
the ONS), the number of younger people is expected to drop.
This will further weaken the voice of the young.
 If young people persistently feel that their vote isn’t electing
their first choice, they may become even more despondent.

Concluding remarks
 Democracy doesn’t stop when you leave the voting booth, the
issue here is one of engagement.
 With an ageing society, more and more pressure is going to be
put on public resources.
 Electoral reform is one possibility to help amplify the voice of
the young, but there are other means to increasing influence.
 Voting remains crucial, but developing a compelling, coherent
and comprehensive argument for putting the issues of young
people on to the agenda of government will be equally
important.

Many thanks
Dean Hochlaf
International Longevity Centre - UK
02073400440
Twitter: @ilcuk @dhochlaf

Abby Tomlinson
Host of Westminster Abby
and Co-Founder of the Milifandom
A young person’s response
Twitter #youthvote

Dr Jennie Bristow
Senior Lecturer in Sociology
Canterbury Christ Church University
Is the voice of younger people too
quiet or older people too loud?
Twitter #youthvote
Andrew Harrop
General Secretary
Fabian Society

A professional body
perspective
Laurence Baxter
Head of Policy and Public Affairs
CII
Twitter #youthvote

Discussion close
Baroness Sally Greengross
Chief Executive
ILC-UK
Twitter #youthvote

SAVE THE DATE
The Future of Ageing
Conference
London, 29th November 2017

22May2017 - If young people ruled the world...DEBATE

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