Food security policy challenges in central Asia: example of Tajikistan
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"Food security policy challenges in Central Asia: example of Tajikistan" presented by Kamiljon Akramov, IFPRI, at the ReSAKSS-Asia Conference, Nov 14-16, 2011, in Kathmandu, Nepal.
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Food security policy challenges in central Asia: example of Tajikistan
- 1. Global Food and Financial Crises, Economic Development and Food Security Challenges in Tajikistan Kamiljon T. Akramov International Food Policy Research Institute Washington, D.C., USA Technical Workshop on Knowledge Tools and Lessons for Informing the Design and Implementation of Food Security Strategies in Asia Kathmandu, Nepal November 14-16, 2011
- 2. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Outline • Background • Recent trends in economic growth and poverty reduction • Global food, financial crises and food security in Tajikistan • Impact on macro level food security • Price transmission • Household level effects • Agriculture is key for improving overall food security • Policy challenges and resource constraints • Conclusions and policy implications Page 2
- 3. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Tajikistan is one of the most food insecure countries in the region GNI per capita, $ PPP (2009) Food Supply (kcal/capita/day, 2007) Total Exports /food imports (2005-2008) Global hunger index, % (2010) Prevalence of undernourishment, % (2005-2007) Armenia 5410 2280 5.5 9.8 22 Azerbaijan 9020 2961 32.3 7.7 - Georgia 4700 2859 4.7 5.8 - Kazakhstan 10320 3490 32.5 <5 - Kyrgyzstan 2200 2644 6.3 <5 10 Tajikistan 1950 2118 4.9 (8.2) 15.8 30 Turkmenistan 6980 2731 70.6 6.3 6 Uzbekistan 2910 2581 17.3 7.1 11 Bangladesh 1550 2281 6.3 24.2 27 Nepal 1180 2360 3.8 20.0 16 Yemen 2330 2068 5.0 27.3 31 Page 3 Source: World Bank (2011), FAO (2011) & authors’ calculations
- 4. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Cereals are main source of calorie intake and domestic cereal consumption highly dependent on imports Composition of calorie intake Cereal balance Page 4 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 Percent Cereals Fruits Vegetables Vegetable oil Sugar Animal products Other -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Percent Production Import Stock variation
- 5. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Outline • Background • Recent trends in economic growth and poverty reduction • Global food, financial crises and food security in Tajikistan • Impact on macro level food security • Price transmission • Household level effects • Agriculture is key for improving overall food security • Policy challenges and resource constraints • Conclusions and policy implications Page 5
- 6. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Tajikistan enjoyed significant economic growth during last decade but income levels still remains below pre-transition levels Source: World Bank (2011) & National statistical agencies -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 1990–2000 2000–09 1990–2000 2000–09 Grossdomestic product Agriculture avgannual%growth Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Percent GDP Per capita GDP Agricultural GDP
- 7. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Strong inflow of remittances and macroeconomic stability played important role in boosting economic growth Workers remittances in Tajikistan, 2002-09 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 currentUS$millions %ofGDP Workers'remittances and compensation of employees, received (current US$ millions) Workers'remittances and compensation of employees, received (% of GDP) Source: World Bank, 2010
- 8. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Poverty and undernourishment declined significantly but still very high and widespread … Page 8 Source: World Bank and FAO
- 9. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Outline • Background • Recent trends in economic growth and poverty reduction • Global food, financial crises and food security in Tajikistan • Impact on macro level food security • Price transmission • Household level effects • Agriculture is key for improving overall food security • Policy challenges and resource constraints • Conclusions and policy implications Page 9
- 10. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Global food and financial crises: Macroeconomic, price and welfare effects • Likely impact on • Macroeconomic stability and economic growth • Domestic food and consumer price inflation • Food security: macro level - country’s ability to finance its food imports & micro level - household welfare • Tajikistan’s economy suffered downturn due to global economic crisis (World Bank 2011) • Terms of trade significantly worsened due to declining world cotton and aluminum prices and rising fuel and food prices • Remittances inflow contracted due to global financial crisis • Economic growth slowed down to 3.9% in 2009 Page 10
- 11. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Macro-level food security deteriorated due to global food and financial crises Page 11 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Ratio Year Exports/food imports Exports+remittances/food imports Exports+remittances/food & energy imports Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from National Bank of Tajikistan
- 12. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Food prices in Tajikistan rise with global food prices -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 一月-06 二月-06 三月-06 四月-06 五月-06 六月-06 七月-06 八月-06 九月-06 十月-06 十一月-06 十二月-06 一月-07 二月-07 三月-07 四月-07 五月-07 六月-07 七月-07 八月-07 九月-07 十月-07 十一月-07 十二月-07 一月-08 二月-08 三月-08 四月-08 五月-08 六月-08 七月-08 八月-08 九月-08 十月-08 Food price inflation in central Asia (Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2008) Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Uzbekistan Global Global food inflation Rising food prices in Central Asia Source: Akramov (2011)
- 13. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Evidence on food price transmission Page 13 Wheat Wheat flour Bread Food price CPI Global wheat prices (GWP) One month lag Two month lag 0.456 (0.158)** 0.038 (0.158) 0.058 (0.052) 0.169 (0.053)** 0.029 (0.036) 0.035 (0.035) 0.003 (0.018) 0.046 (0.018)** -0.000 (0.013) 0.028 (0.013)** Global food crisis (GFC) Interaction of GWP and GFC Exchange rate 0.601 (2.289) 0.685 (0.322)** -0.240 (0.891) 0.698 (0.764) 0.385 (0.105)** -0.488 (0.290) -0.123 (0.515) 0.224 (0.071)*** -0.307 (0.196) 0.309 (0.227) 0.077 (0.037)** 0.045 (0.101) 0.147 (0.189) 0.054 (0.026)** 0.049 (0.076) R=squared N F-stat 0.17 106 1.81 0.37 106 5.06 0.25 106 2.78 0.28 106 3.29 0.25 106 2.87
- 14. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Household level food insecurity (extreme poverty) increased in Khatlon and GBAO provinces Page 14 2007 2009 Change (n=4860) (n=1503) Dushanbe 16.1 12.5 -3.6 Sogd 31.8 14.8 -17.0 Urban 24.5 11.2 -13.3 Rural 34.3 16.0 -18.3 Khatlon 8.7 20.1 11.4 Urban 15.1 29.0 13.9 Rural 7.4 18.3 10.9 RRP 13.6 11.9 -1.7 Urban 23.8 14.6 -9.2 Rural 12.1 11.5 -0.6 GBAO 10.3 25.5 15.2 Urban 2.2 11.0 8.8 Rural 11.5 27.7 16.2 Tajikistan 17.4 16.2 -1.2 Urban 18.9 16.2 -2.7 Rural 16.9 16.1 -0.8 Source: TLSS 2007 & 2009
- 15. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Transient and chronic food insecurity Page 15 Source: TLSS 2007 & 2009 (panel) 2009 TLSS Total Non-poor Moderately poor Extreme poor 2007TLSS Non-poor 561 184 68 813 37.7% 12.4% 4.6% 54.7% Moderatly poor 249 140 75 464 16.7% 9.4% 5.0% 31.2% Extreme poor 85 68 57 210 5.7% 4.6% 3.8% 14.1% Total 895 392 200 1487 60.2% 26.4% 13.4% 100.0%
- 16. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Outline • Background • Recent trends in economic growth and poverty reduction • Global food, financial crises and food security in Tajikistan • Impact on macro level food security • Price transmission • Household level effects • Agriculture is key for improving overall food security • Policy challenges and resource constraints • Conclusions and policy implications Page 16
- 17. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Promoting agricultural productivity and growth can improve domestic food security Page 17 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 rural population (%) agricultural employment (%) agric. Gdp (%) Source: Agency on Statistics of Tajikistan
- 18. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Agricultural reforms during last decade stimulated agricultural diversification and improved productivity • Land allocation patterns changed in favor of food crops • Wheat and potato yields constantly increasing • Growth in non-cotton agriculture was very strong • Nevertheless, agricultural productivity and crop yields still lower than potential • Further policy and institutional reforms needed to increase productivity and profitability of agriculture Page 18 Wheat yields Source: FAOSTAT 2011
- 19. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Also, there are significant differences in cereal yields across farm types Page 19 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Tons/ha Agric Enterprises Dekhan Farms Household Plots Source: WB (2010)
- 20. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Addressing existing policy and institutional constraints necessary to improve agricultural performance • International agrarian reform conference – April 15, 2011 • Land use rights and enabling farmers to make production and marketing decisions • Improving access to farm machinery and modern inputs (seeds, fertilizer) (ICARDA 2008; Lerman 2009) • Addressing problems with irrigation infrastructure • Limited access to agricultural extension and finance • Institutional reform of Ministry of Agriculture and local governments Access to improved seed in Tajikistan Page 20 Source: ICARDA (2008)
- 21. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE However, agriculture’s potential in improving food security in Tajikistan is limited due to serious resource constraints • Mountainous terrain with high prevalence of steep lands (54%), high shallowness (48%) & erosion risk (26%) • Limited land base for agriculture • About 0.1 ha arable land per person • 0.56 ha unimproved pastures per person • Both arable and pasture land per capita is declining due to land degradation and high population growth (Lerman 2009) Page 21 Source: World Bank 2011
- 22. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Outline • Background • Recent trends in economic growth and poverty reduction • Global food, financial crises and food security in Tajikistan • Impact on macro level food security • Price transmission • Household level effects • Agriculture is key for improving overall food security • Challenges and constraints • Conclusions and policy implications Page 22
- 23. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Conclusions and policy implications • Tajikistan is highly vulnerable to external shocks • Clearly defined agricultural sector development strategy and investment plan are necessary • Establishing strategic food (grain) reserves may help • Improving connectivity between regional markets and market access • Encouraging nonfarm employment in rural areas • Developing targeted social safety net • Improving domestic analytical and M&E capacity is crucial Page 23
- 24. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Thank you Page 24