The document discusses engineering responses to climate change through a proactive strategy of providing clean, affordable energy for a growing global population. It outlines challenges like reducing greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on oil. New technologies like carbon capture and storage could allow continued fossil fuel use while storing carbon underground. A triad of large-scale zero-carbon options is proposed: solar, nuclear, and fossil energy with carbon storage. Markets would drive efficiency along with alternative energy development.

1. Engineering Responses to Changing Climate Klaus S. Lackner Columbia University

2. FRAMING THE DEBATE Defensive Strategy – Avoid Losses Prevent climate catastrophe Proactive Strategy – Create Gains Provide clean, cheap energy for ten billion

3. Challenges Greenhouse Gas Emissions Overdependence on Oil Affordability Rethink the World Energy Infrastructure

4. New ideas change the world Steam Engine Trains & Ships Telephones Automobile Television Airplanes Internet Unpredicted and unmodeled, these inventions changed the course of future societal developments in unexpected ways

5. 21st Century’s Emissions ??? Atmo-sphere 2000 Ocean Plants Coal Oil, Gas, Tars & Shales Methane Hydrates        pH < 0.3 39,000 Gt 50,000 Gt ??? Soil & Detritus 1800 constant Scales of Potential Carbon Sinks Carbon Resources Carbon Sources and Sinks 0 Gt 8,000 Gt 7,000 Gt 6,000 Gt 5,000 Gt 4,000 Gt 3,000 Gt 2,000 Gt 1,000 Gt 20th Century 2  3  4 

6. 180ppm increase in the air 30% of the Ocean acidified 30% increase in Soil Carbon 50% increase in biomass Methane Hydrates 10,000 - 100,000 GtC The Mismatch in Carbon Sources and Sinks World Fossil Resource Estimate 21st century emissions 8000 GtC 4  3  1  2  5  1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 times current rate of emission???? 1800 - 2000 Fossil Carbon Consumption to date

7. Energy, Wealth, Economic Growth EIA Data for 2002 Norway USA France UK Brazil Russia India China $0.38/kWh (primary)

8. Today’s Energy Infrastructure All fossil energy plus a little hydro and nuclear energy plus a very little renewable energy

9. Mega-scale Projects Dominate Low Cost tied to Large Scale Power plants are 200 to 2000 MW (400 to 4000 large wind mills) Refineries are billion dollar investments Large scale provides obstacle to entry For developing nations For innovation For flexible response to shortages For eliminating political dependencies

10. Today’s Technology Fails To Deliver Sufficient Energy … … for 10 billion at US per capita rates Environmental Problems Pollution, CO 2 Oil and Gas Shortages Concentration in the Middle East How much time do we have to make the change?

11. 10 - 30 TeraWatt Primary Energy of Carbon Neutral 2050

12. Zero Carbon Renewable Energy Hydroelectricity Cheap but limited, already established Wind, Tidal Roughly cost effective but limited like hydro Geothermal Limited or difficult, needs new ideas for low grade heat Ocean Thermal Too dilute, and environmental issues Solar Unlimited, still too expensive, but very promising Low grade solar heat already in use

13. Nuclear Energy for Zero Carbon Nuclear Energy Fission Cost Resource limits - but breeder technology Waste Disposal Safety Security Fusion – Unlimited Supply Major technology hurdles Much smaller waste issues

14. Fossil Fuels Energy in 2100 need not be more expensive than today Environment Rather Than Resource Limit Carbon Capture and Storage - Untested Technology

15. Carbon as Low Cost Energy Rogner 1997

16. Net Zero Carbon Economy Capture of distributed emissions CO 2 extraction from air Permanent & safe disposal CO 2 from concentrated sources electricity or hydrogen Geological Storage Mineral carbonate disposal

17. Underground Injection statoil

18. Storage Life Time 5000 Gt of C 200 years at 4 times current rates of emission Storage Slow Leak (0.04%/yr) 2 Gt/yr for 2500 years Current Emissions: 6Gt/year

19. Rockville Quarry Mg 3 Si 2 O 5 (OH) 4 + 3CO 2 (g)  3MgCO 3 + 2SiO 2 +2H 2 O(l) +63kJ/mole

20. CO 2 N 2 H 2 O SO x , NO x and other Pollutants Carbon Air Zero Emission Principle Solid Waste Power Plant

21. Air Extraction can compensate for CO 2 emissions anywhere Art Courtesy Stonehaven CCS, Montreal 2NaOH + CO 2  Na 2 CO 3

22. Hydrogen or Air Extraction Coal,Gas Fossil Fuel Oil Hydrogen Gasoline Consumption Consumption Distribution Distribution CO 2 Transport Air Extraction CO 2 Disposal

23. Hydrogen or Air Extraction Coal,Gas Fossil Fuel Oil Hydrogen Gasoline Consumption Consumption Distribution Distribution CO 2 Transport Air Extraction CO 2 Disposal Cost comparisons

24. Energy Source Energy Consumer H 2 O H 2 O O 2 O 2 Materially Closed Energy Cycles H 2 CO 2 CO 2 H 2 CH 2

25. C H O Fuels Oxidizer Combustion products Biomass CO Fischer Tropsch Synthesis Gas Methanol Ethanol Natural Gas Town Gas Petroleum Coal Gasoline Benzene Carbon Hydrogen CO 2 H 2 O Oxygen Increasing Hydrogen Content Increasing Oxidation State Methane Free O 2 Free C- H

26. C H O Fuels Oxidizer Combustion products Biomass CO Fischer Tropsch Synthesis Gas Methanol Ethanol Natural Gas Town Gas Petroleum Coal Gasoline Benzene Carbon Hydrogen CO 2 H 2 O Oxygen Increasing Hydrogen Content Increasing Oxidation State Methane Free O 2 Free C- H

27. C H O Fuels Oxidizer Combustion products Biomass CO Fischer Tropsch Synthesis Gas Methanol Ethanol Natural Gas Town Gas Petroleum Coal Gasoline Benzene Carbon Hydrogen CO 2 H 2 O Oxygen Increasing Hydrogen Content Increasing Oxidation State Methane Free O 2 Free C- H

28. A Triad of Large Scale Options backed by a multitude of opportunities Solar Cost reduction and mass-manufacture Nuclear Cost, waste, safety and security Fossil Energy Zero emission, carbon storage and interconvertibility Markets will drive efficiency, conservation and alternative energy