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03 ccara integrated-risk
The document discusses social vulnerability and integrated risk modeling for earthquakes. It describes developing social vulnerability databases and indices for 12 countries in areas like economic vulnerability, likelihood of fatalities, and recovery rates. These indices are integrated into models of overall seismic risk that identify hotspots of high physical hazard and social vulnerability. The models allow mapping the potential impact on the economy, human lives, and recovery. The social vulnerability and integrated risk models are developed using the OpenQuake platform to allow interactive analysis and adjustment for specific user needs.
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03 ccara integrated-risk
- 1. Central America andCaribbean Integrated Risk Project March 21-22, 2018 Santo Domingo. Miguel Toquica, MSc. Social Vulnerability and Integrated Risk (SVIR)
- 2. Same Event: Differentcontext
- 3. INTEGRATED SEISMIC RISK PHYSICALSEISMIC RISK Probability of damage and loss to people and structures due to earthquakes EXPOSURE Elements at risk PHYSICAL VULNERABILITY Vulnerability of structures and their occupants to seismic hazard SEISMIC HAZARD Probability of ground shaking due to earthquakes SOCIO-ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE Vulnerability of society and economy and their capacity to cope with earthquake events GEM Integrated Risk - Scientific Framework
- 4. GEM Social vulnerabilitydatabases Metadata and Taxonomy • Socio-economic characteristics of populations to estimate human losses, economic losses, and Recovery rates. • Data collection and database development • Evaluation of social dimensions that affect a community’s ability to mitigate, respond to, and recover from losses.
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- 6. SOCIAL VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE (SVR) DATABASE EXPERIENCE PREVIOUS INDEXES LITERATURE REVIEW SUPORTING DOCUMENTS IMPACT MAPS ECONOMIC LOSSES (Average annual losses) ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY ACT HUMAN LOSSES (Fatalities, injured and homeless) IMPACT IN HUMAN LIVES RECOVERY SVR PHR ? ? VARIABLES DAMAGES AND COLLAPSES (Average annual collapses) I PHASE II PHASE Social VulnerabilityIndex LOCAL EXPERTISE LATIN-AMERICA /AFRICA/ EUROPE SOCIAL VULNERABILITY INDICES III PHASE
- 7. SV composite thematicIndices - (CCARA) Variables ECONOMIC RESILIENCE (Effects on livelihoods) Population with disabilities Age dependence Unsatisfied basic needs Average household size Unemployment rate Poverty Population with no formal education Illiteracy People working in manufacturing industry, hotel/ restaurant, commercial industry Population density No healthcare No access to electrical energy IMPACT IN HUMAN LIVES (Likelihood of Fatalitie) RECOVERY (Expected rate) Indigenous population Population with disabilities Illiteracy No access to electrical energy Female Population No access to potable water Women head of households No sanitary services • Integrated Risk Modeling Toolkit (IRMT) • Fully integrated into GEM’s OpenQuake- platform
- 8. Index: Impact onHuman lives Costa Rica Age dependence Average household size Population density FATALITIES Population with disabilities No healthcare
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- 10. Index: Recovery Expected rateof recovery RECOVERY Indigenous population Population with disabilities Illiteracy No access to electrical energy Female Population No access to potable water No sanitary services
- 11. SOCIAL VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE (SVR) DATABASE EXPERIENCE PREVIOUS INDEXES LITERATURE REVIEW SUPORTING DOCUMENTS IMPACT MAPS ECONOMIC LOSSES (Average annual losses) ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY HUMAN LOSSES (Fatalities, injured and homeless) IMPACT IN HUMAN LIVES RECOVERY SVR PHR ? ? VARIABLES DAMAGES AND COLLAPSES (Average annual collapses) I PHASE II PHASE Social Vulnerabilityand Integrated Risk LOCAL EXPERTISE LATIN-AMERICA /AFRICA/ EUROPE SOCIAL VULNERABILITY INDICES III PHASE
- 12. INTEGRATED SEISMIC RISK PHYSICALSEISMIC RISK Probability of damage and loss to people and structures due to earthquakes EXPOSURE Elements at risk PHYSICAL VULNERABILITY Vulnerability of structures and their occupants to seismic hazard SEISMIC HAZARD Probability of ground shaking due to earthquakes SOCIO-ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE Vulnerability of society and economy and their capacity to cope with earthquake events GEM Integrated Risk - Scientific Framework
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- 15. Integrated Risk Map:Economic Impact Case Study - Costa Rica Social Vulnerability Economic effects in livelihoods Physical Seismic Risk Average Structural Losses
- 16. Integrated Risk Map:Impact on Human Lives Case Study - Costa Rica
- 17. Integrated Risk Map:Recovery Impact Case Study - Costa Rica
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- 19. Summary and Conclusions • Social Vulnerability models have been developed 12 countries within the CCARA project • Development of composite Indices: Economic vulnerability ; Likelihood of fatalities, recovery rates • Models of Integrated risk that leads to quick identification of hot-spots of both seismic and social vulnerabilities impacts – Impact on Economy – Likelihood of fatalities – Impact on recovery rates • OpenQuake allows easy interphase user-machine for SV and IR model development • SV –IR models can be adjusted to user- specific needs.
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