The document discusses social vulnerability and integrated risk modeling for earthquakes. It describes developing social vulnerability databases and indices for 12 countries in areas like economic vulnerability, likelihood of fatalities, and recovery rates. These indices are integrated into models of overall seismic risk that identify hotspots of high physical hazard and social vulnerability. The models allow mapping the potential impact on the economy, human lives, and recovery. The social vulnerability and integrated risk models are developed using the OpenQuake platform to allow interactive analysis and adjustment for specific user needs.

1. Central America and Caribbean
Integrated Risk Project
March 21-22, 2018
Santo Domingo.
Miguel Toquica, MSc.
Social Vulnerability and Integrated Risk
(SVIR)

2. Same Event: Different context

3. INTEGRATED SEISMIC RISK
PHYSICAL SEISMIC RISK
Probability of damage and loss to
people and structures due to
earthquakes
EXPOSURE
Elements at risk
PHYSICAL VULNERABILITY
Vulnerability of structures and their
occupants to seismic hazard
SEISMIC HAZARD
Probability of ground shaking
due to earthquakes
SOCIO-ECONOMIC
VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE
Vulnerability of society and economy and their
capacity to cope with earthquake events
GEM Integrated Risk - Scientific Framework

4. GEM Social vulnerability databases
Metadata and Taxonomy
• Socio-economic
characteristics of
populations to
estimate human losses,
economic losses, and
Recovery rates.
• Data collection and
database development
• Evaluation of social
dimensions that affect
a community’s ability
to mitigate, respond
to, and recover from
losses.

5. Power, C., Daniell, J., Khazai, B., Burton, C., & Oberacker, C. (2013).
National level Socio-Economic Vulnerability Database – Data Collection, Harmonisation and Analysis.
GEM – Global databases of social vulnerability

6. SOCIAL VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE (SVR) DATABASE
EXPERIENCE
PREVIOUS INDEXES
LITERATURE REVIEW
SUPORTING DOCUMENTS
IMPACT MAPS
ECONOMIC LOSSES
(Average annual losses)
ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY
ACT
HUMAN LOSSES
(Fatalities, injured and homeless)
IMPACT IN HUMAN LIVES RECOVERY SVR
PHR
?
?
VARIABLES
DAMAGES AND COLLAPSES
(Average annual collapses)
I PHASE
II PHASE
Social Vulnerability Index
LOCAL EXPERTISE
LATIN-AMERICA /AFRICA/ EUROPE
SOCIAL VULNERABILITY INDICES
III PHASE

7. SV composite thematic Indices - (CCARA)
Variables
ECONOMIC RESILIENCE
(Effects on livelihoods)
Population with disabilities
Age dependence
Unsatisfied basic needs
Average household size
Unemployment rate
Poverty
Population with no formal
education
Illiteracy
People working in
manufacturing industry, hotel/
restaurant, commercial industry
Population density
No healthcare
No access to electrical energy
IMPACT IN HUMAN LIVES
(Likelihood of Fatalitie)
RECOVERY
(Expected rate)
Indigenous population
Population with disabilities
Illiteracy
No access to electrical energy
Female Population
No access to potable water
Women head of households
No sanitary services
• Integrated Risk Modeling
Toolkit (IRMT)
• Fully integrated into
GEM’s OpenQuake-
platform

8. Index: Impact on Human lives
Costa Rica
Age dependence
Average household size
Population density
FATALITIES
Population with disabilities
No healthcare

9. Index: Economic Vulnerability
Nicaragua
ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY
Unsatisfied basic needs
Poverty
Population with no formal
education
Illiteracy
Population working in
manufacturing industry, hotel/
restaurant, commercial industry
No access to electrical energy

10. Index: Recovery
Expected rate of recovery
RECOVERY
Indigenous population
Population with disabilities
Illiteracy
No access to electrical energy
Female Population
No access to potable water
No sanitary services

11. SOCIAL VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE (SVR) DATABASE
EXPERIENCE
PREVIOUS INDEXES
LITERATURE REVIEW
SUPORTING DOCUMENTS
IMPACT MAPS
ECONOMIC LOSSES
(Average annual losses)
ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY
HUMAN LOSSES
(Fatalities, injured and homeless)
IMPACT IN HUMAN LIVES RECOVERY SVR
PHR
?
?
VARIABLES
DAMAGES AND COLLAPSES
(Average annual collapses)
I PHASE
II PHASE
Social Vulnerability and Integrated Risk
LOCAL EXPERTISE
LATIN-AMERICA /AFRICA/ EUROPE
SOCIAL VULNERABILITY INDICES
III PHASE

12. INTEGRATED SEISMIC RISK
PHYSICAL SEISMIC RISK
Probability of damage and loss to
people and structures due to
earthquakes
EXPOSURE
Elements at risk
PHYSICAL VULNERABILITY
Vulnerability of structures and their
occupants to seismic hazard
SEISMIC HAZARD
Probability of ground shaking
due to earthquakes
SOCIO-ECONOMIC
VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE
Vulnerability of society and economy and their
capacity to cope with earthquake events
GEM Integrated Risk - Scientific Framework

13. ECONOMIC LOSSES HUMAN LOSSES DAMAGES AND COLLAPSES
IMPACT MAPS
ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY
IMPACT IN HUMAN LIVES
RECOVERY

14. ECONOMIC LOSSES
IMPACT MAPS
ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY
INTEGRATED RISK

15. Integrated Risk Map: Economic Impact
Case Study - Costa Rica
Social Vulnerability
Economic effects in livelihoods
Physical Seismic Risk
Average Structural Losses

16. Integrated Risk Map: Impact on Human Lives
Case Study - Costa Rica

17. Integrated Risk Map: Recovery Impact
Case Study - Costa Rica

18. Interactive tools
SV Databases/ indicators
available online

19. Summary and Conclusions
• Social Vulnerability models have been developed 12 countries within
the CCARA project
• Development of composite Indices: Economic vulnerability ; Likelihood
of fatalities, recovery rates
• Models of Integrated risk that leads to quick identification of hot-spots
of both seismic and social vulnerabilities impacts
– Impact on Economy
– Likelihood of fatalities
– Impact on recovery rates
• OpenQuake allows easy interphase user-machine for SV and IR model
development
• SV –IR models can be adjusted to user- specific needs.

20. miguel.toquica@globalquakemodel.org
http://www.globalquakemodel.org/
Miguel Toquica
Social Vulnerability and Integrated Risk Analyist