- The book attempts to predict major geopolitical events and trends of the 21st century, as well as changes in technology and culture.
- It predicts that the US-Jihadist war will end in the 2010s and be replaced by a second Cold War with Russia lasting until the 2020s.
- Russia and China are predicted to fragment in the 2020s-2030s, leaving Eurasia in chaos and leading to the rise of new powers like Turkey, Poland, and Japan.
- The book forecasts a Third World War occurring around 2050 between competing alliances led by the US and an alliance of Turkey and Japan.
5. • The Next 100 Years is a 2009 speculative nonfiction
book by George Friedman
• In the book, Friedman attempts to predict the major
geopolitical events and trends of the 21st century.
• Friedman also speculates in the book on changes in
technology and culture that may take place during this
period.
• Written with the keen insight and thoughtful analysis
that has made George Friedman a renowned expert in
geopolitics and forecasting, The Next 100
Years presents a fascinating picture of what lies ahead.
OVERVIEW OF BOOK
6. OVERVIEW OF BOOK
Author George Friedman
Country United States
Language English
Publication date Jan 26, 2010
Price 1450 PKR
Pages 253
Chapters 9
7. • George Friedman (Born February 1, 1949) is a Hungarian-born
U.S. geopolitical forecaster, author, and strategist on
international affairs.
• He is the founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures, an
online publication that analyzes and forecasts the course of
global events.
• Prior to founding Geopolitical Futures, he was chairman of its
predecessor Stratfor, the private intelligence publishing and
consulting firm he founded in 1996.
• He lives in Austin, Texas.
ABOUT AUTHOR
8. • In his long-awaited and provocative new book, George Friedman turns his eye on the
future—offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around
the world during the twenty-first century.
• He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which
nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and
cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century.
• The Next 100 Years draws on a fascinating exploration of history and geopolitical
patterns dating back hundreds of years.
BOOK REVIEW
9. • Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium,
at the dawn of a new era—with changes in store, including:
The U.S.-Jihadist war will conclude—replaced by a second full-blown cold war with
Russia.
China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an
important world power.
A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United
States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia, and the Far East;
but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly.
BOOK REVIEW
10. • In the 2010s, the conflict between the US and Islamic fundamentalists will die down, and
a second Cold War, less extensive and shorter than the first, will take place between the
United States and Russia.
• During this period, Russia's military will pose a regional challenge to the United States.
The United States will become a close ally to some Central and Eastern European
countries, all of whom will be dedicated to resisting Russian geopolitical threats during
this period.
• Friedman speculates in the book that the United States will probably become a close ally
of some Central and Eastern European countries: Poland, the Czech Republic etc. APolish-
led military alliance of countries in Central and Eastern Europe will begin to form, which
is referred to in the book as the "Polish Bloc.“
2nd COLD WAR
11. • In the early 2020s, the New Cold War will end when the economic strain and political
pressure on Russia, coupled with Russia's declining population, and poor infrastructure,
cause the federal government of Russia to completely collapse, much like the dissolution
of the Soviet Union. Other former Soviet countries will fragment as well.
• Around this time, China will politically and culturally fragment as well. The book asserts
that the rapid economic development of China since 1980 will cause internal pressures
and inequalities in Chinese society.
• Regional tension in mainland China will grow between the prosperous coastal regions
and the impoverished interior regions.
RUSSIAN AND CHINESE FRAGMENTATION
12. • Friedman gives two possible scenarios: that the Chinese central government will expel
outside interests and rule with an iron fist to keep the country together.
• China will fragment, with the central government gradually losing much of its real power
and the provinces becoming increasingly autonomous. He works on the assumption that
fragmentation is the most likely scenario.
• In the 2020s, the collapse of the Russian government and the fragmentation of mainland
China will leave Eurasia in general chaos. Other powers will then move in to annex or
establish spheres of influence in the area, and in many cases, regional leaders will
secede.
• In Russia, North Caucasus and other Muslim regions, as well as the Pacific Far East will
become independent
RUSSIAN AND CHINESE FRAGMENTATION
13. • In the 2020s and 2030s, three main powers will emerge in Eurasia: Turkey, Poland, and
Japan.
• Initially supported by the United States, Turkey will expand its sphere of influence and
become a regional power, much as it was during the time of the Ottoman Empire.
• The Turkish sphere of influence will extend into the Arab world, which will have
increasingly fragmented by then, and north into Russia and other former Soviet
countries.
• Israel will continue to be a powerful nation and will be the only country in region to
remain outside the Turkish sphere. However, Israel will be forced to come to an
accommodation with Turkey due to Turkey's military and political power.
NEW POWERS ARISE
14. • Meanwhile, Japan will expand its economic influence to regions of coastal China, the
Russian Far East, and many Pacific Islands.
• Friedman predicts that Japan will change its foreign policy during this time period,
becoming more geopolitically aggressive, beginning a major military buildup.
• Friedman predicts that Japan will build military strength capable of regionally projecting
power across East Asia during this time.
• Finally, Poland will continue to lead its military alliance, the "Polish Bloc." Poland and its
allies will be a major power, much like the time of the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth.
• Poland will expand its economic influence into what was formerly European Russia, and
will begin to compete with Turkey in Volga river valley.
NEW POWERS ARISE
15. • At the beginning of this period, the United States will be allied with all three powers. By
2020, the United States will have been allied with Turkey and Japan for over 75 years.
• However, in the years after the end of the Second Cold War and collapse of Russia, the
United States will gradually become uneasy as Turkey and Japan expand their military
power and economic influence.
• Establishing regional spheres of influence, Turkey and Japan will begin to threaten US
interests. The growth of Turkish and Japanese naval power, and their military activities in
space will be particularly disturbing to the United States.
• The book asserts that Japan and Turkey, having similar interests, and will form an
alliance near the end of this period, in an effort to counter United States.
TENSIONS BUILD
16. • The book also speculates that Germany and Mexico may possibly join this anti-United
States coalition.
• In this coming confrontation, the United States will be allied with the "Polish Bloc,"
probably with the UK, a restabilized China, India, and a reunified Korea.
• By the 2040s, there will be global tension and competition between these two alliances.
TENSIONS BUILD
17. • The book also predicts that decades of low birthrates in developed countries, especially in
Europe, will result in dramatic cultural, social, and political shifts through the first half of
the 21st century.
• These countries will experience economic and social strain, caused by a diminishing
working age demographic and a rapidly aging population.
• These countries will experience economic and social strain, caused by a diminishing
working age demographic and a rapidly aging population.
• n particular, the United States will greatly ease immigration controls, and will begin
trying to entice foreigners - especially Mexicans - to immigrate to the United States.
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
18. • In the mid-21st century, around the year 2050, a Third World War will take place,
between the United States, the "Polish Bloc", the UK, India, and China on one side, and
Turkey and Japan on the other, with Germany and France entering the war in its late
stages on the side of Turkey and Japan.
• According to Friedman, "I can’t possibly know the details of this war, or even its timing.
But I can lay out some of the principles and imagine some of the details."
• According to the book, the war will probably be started by a coordinated Turkish-
Japanese sneak attack against the United States and its allies, in order to contest
American power over Eurasia. In the scenario Friedman gives, the attack will take place
at a time in which the US will be taken completely off guard, and hypothesizes 5:00 p.m.
on November 24, 2050
WORLD WAR III
19. • The primary weapons of the war will be long-range hypersonic aircraft and infantrymen
with highly sophisticated, powered body-armor.
• Control of space will be crucial over the course of the conflict, with space-based weapons
systems and military bases on the Moon playing a significant role.
• he war will last about two or three years. According to Friedman, the war will be a
limited war, and precision-guided munitions will minimize collateral damage.
• Friedman estimates that the war will cost somewhere around 50,000 lives.
• Following the war, the United States will enjoy a new post-war boom This boom will
begin in the 2050s after the war and last throughout the 2060s.
• The economic boom will come as a result of increased defense expenditures that lead to
the development of new technologies
WORLD WAR III
20. • The United States will continue to be militarily and politically dominant over the world,
and will also cement its hegemony over space.
• In particular, it will work to keep other powers from developing military capabilities in
space.
• Meanwhile, Turkey will retain the bulk of its sphere of influence, although its de facto
empire will become increasingly restive as a result of defeat, while Japan will lose its own
sphere of influence.
• Under the US-dictated treaty that will end World War III, military restrictions will be
imposed on both Japan and Turkey, although in practice they will be unenforceable and
"merely a gratuitous humiliation victors enjoy imposing on the vanquished".
WORLD WAR III
21. • Among the technological predictions made in the book are the development of
hypersonic aircraft and missiles, new space-based technology that will foster the
development of military bases on the Moon and crewed military orbiting platforms
(referred to in the book as "Battle Stars"), and armored robotic battle suits for soldiers
that run on solar power.
• In addition, the Earth will come to be powered by solar energy collected from satellites
beaming the energy down in the form of radiation to receiving stations on Earth, which
will end dependence on hydrocarbons, and dramatic advances in robotics and genetic
science will lead to a great increase in labor productivity, and significant increases in
human longevity.
TECHNOLOGICAL PREDICTIONS
22. • It also hints at more widespread nuclear proliferation, claiming that Japan, Turkey, and
Poland will have nuclear weapons by mid-century, as the technology will be a century old
by that time, and "there won't be any mystery to how to build and deliver them.“
• In 2015, Stratfor published a decade forecast for 2015 to 2025, which revised the
predictions on China and Russia made in the book. Rather than the Russian government
completely collapsing, it envisioned that the Russian government would lose much of its
power, and the country would gradually fragment into a series of semi-autonomous
regions.
• t is unknown at present what implications this has for the book's further predictions,
such as the Third World War
TECHNOLOGICAL PREDICTIONS
