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THE FOCUSES OF WAR IN THE WORLD AND THEIR PERSPECTIVE
Fernando Alcoforado *
There are several countries that may be foci of wars in the world, including Syria,
Palestine, Israel, Iran and North Korea. In the contemporary era, international
geopolitical chess points to the existence of three major players: the United States,
China and Russia. From the confrontation between these three great military powers in
the future, alternatives scenarios to the current may arise that are characterized by the
loss of US hegemony on the world stage since the end of the bipolar world confronting
the United States and the Soviet Union.
Syria is today the epicenter of a battle that brings together various actors: the great
enemy regional powers (Iran and Saudi Arabia) and historical allies (the USA allied of
Saudi Arabia and Iran allied of Russia). The Syrian conflict began when President
Bachar Al Assad launched an offensive against the rebels of the Syrian Free Army.
Meanwhile, other actors entered the scene inside the rebel movement, followed by
extremists from the Islamic State (ISIS) and the Kurds. It has become clear that the
geopolitical interests of the parties involved are very different.
It can be said that Syria has a fundamental strategic importance because it is the last
stone of geopolitical chess in the region whose fall of Bachar Al Assad would lead to
the siege of Iran, enabling the Western allies to reach the territory of this country by the
Mediterranean Sea and Iraq which would guarantee passage for Allied troops to reach
Iranian borders. Syria, which borders Israel, has always been important in the Middle
East and, especially today, is part of a very delicate geopolitical chess because it is an
allied country of Iran, along with those who sponsor extremely aggressive terrorist
movements such as Hezbollah and Hamas in opposition to the State of Israel.
The recent US-led attack by US President Donald Trump on a Bashar al-Assad air base
in Syria has widened the United States-Russia deadlock over the civil war, with both
sides promising the use of force. The tone adopted by the two nuclear powers was a
threat, raising the tension between Washington and Moscow at a level similar to that
experienced in the Cold War. The Kremlin called the US action "aggression" and
"violation of international law" and said it would suspend the channel of communication
with United States forces used to prevent the two countries from attacking Syria, since
both operate in the country.
Palestine and Israel are foci of a new world war because they have been in conflict since
the end of World War I when Zionist Jews expressed the desire to create a modern state
in their ancestral land and began to create settlements in the region, at the time still
controlled by the Ottoman Empire. Both Israelis and Palestinians claim their share of
the land based on history, religion and culture. The great victorious powers of World
War I decided the destiny of Palestine in favor of the Jews, being used for this of the
League of Nations, thus configuring the arrogance that have always characterized the
international relations throughout history. The Palestinians saw in the patronage they
gave first to Britain and then the League of Nations to the Zionist project of creating the
Jewish national home in Palestine denial of their right to independence.
2
Since then, there has been much violence and controversy surrounding the issue, as well
as several processes of peace negotiations during the twentieth century. The State of
Israel was founded in 1948 after the UN-led Sharing Plan, which divided the region,
then under British rule, into Arab and Jewish states. After World War II, there were
several conflicts between Palestinians and neighboring Arab nations that did not agree
with the territorial division of the former Palestinian lands. Since the establishment of
the State of Israel, the conflict that has set it against the Palestinians has been the
epicenter of a conflict between Israel and all Arab countries, with strong repercussions
worldwide. There were wars with Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon, but without the
tension in the region diminishing. During this period, Israel occupied the Sinai
Peninsula, the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, the Golan Heights and southern Lebanon.
The State of Israel has sovereignty over much of the territory that was conquered after
the defeat of the Arabs in two wars - the Arab-Israeli conflict of 1948 and the 1967 Six-
Day War.
In 1993, the Oslo Agreement was signed, which initiated the peace process with the
Palestinians. Under the agreement, the Gaza Strip and the West Bank would become a
territory administered by the Palestinian National Authority (PNA). In 2005, Israel
withdrew its Jewish troops and settlers - under their protests - from the Gaza Strip.
Despite the devolution of the Gaza Strip and parts of the West Bank to Palestinian
control, a final agreement still needed to be established. To do so, it would be necessary
to resolve the main points of contention, which are the status of Jerusalem, the fate of
Palestinian refugees and Jewish settlements. It is unlikely that the conflict between
Palestinians and Jews will be resolved today because existing international institutions
are not able to build a negotiated way out of the conflict between these two peoples and
between Israel and the Arab countries.
Iran is, also, focus of a new world war when it decided a few years ago to possess
nuclear weapons and become a regional power - rooted in both Persian nationalism and
Shi'a Islam - to end its fears of being a victim of American aggression and or Israeli.
The Iranian government has convinced itself that only the true possession of weapons of
mass destruction can free it from an external attack. Forty years ago, restrictions were
imposed by the major powers that developed nuclear weapons to other non-nuclear
countries, including Iran, limiting the use of nuclear energy to peaceful purposes, and
preventing it from being used for military purposes. This was done through the 1968
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which legitimized the possession of nuclear
weapons by the United States, the Soviet Union, Britain, France and China and tried to
prevent other nations from developing them by restricting their access to nuclear
technology.
Today, in addition to the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom and France,
they are in possession of nuclear weapons India, North Korea, Pakistan and Israel. Israel
does not confirm or deny the reports of experts who accuse it of possessing a large
nuclear arsenal estimated at more than 100 warheads, being the only one with such
weapons in the Middle East. In turn, Iran and Syria are accused of having secret nuclear
weapons programs. To date, 187 countries have ratified the NPT and none have
withdrawn from the pact except North Korea, which did so in 2003. A number of
countries have criticized the perpetual nuclear monopoly imposed by the treaty on
legitimizing existing weapons and does not admit that other countries have them. Iran is
a signatory to the NPT that prevents the country from developing nuclear weapons, but
3
grants the right to use and develop nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. The
United States considers that Iran's nuclear energy program aims at producing nuclear
weapons and is not for peaceful purposes as the Iranian government claims.
North Korea may be the focus of a new world war because the tension between the
United States and North Korea has existed for many years, but has intensified since
Donald Trump took over the White House in January of this year. Donald Trump
threatens to attack the Asian country if the Pyongyang regime continues with its
military tests. It should be noted that among 1950 and 1953 occurred the Korean War
that was part of the geopolitical dispute between the United States and the Soviet Union.
It was the first armed conflict of the Cold War, causing worldwide apprehension
because there was an imminent risk of a nuclear war due to the direct involvement
between the two military superpowers of the time. It should be noted that after the end
of World War II with the surrender and withdrawal of Japanese troops, the north
became an ally of the Soviets and Chinese, while the south came under US influence.
The United States entered the war alongside South Korea, while China (allied with the
Soviet Union) sent troops into the conflict zone to support North Korea. In 1953, South
Korea, backed by the United States and other capitalist countries, had several military
victories. In 1953, the US government threatened to use nuclear weapons against North
Korea and China if the war was not ended with the North Korean surrender. On March
28, 1953, North Korea and China accepted the United Nations peace proposal. With the
end of the war, the two Koreas remained divided and the geopolitical conflicts
continued, although they were no longer for the military area. North Korea currently
remains with the communist regime, while South Korea remains in the capitalist
system. At the present time, the United States and North Korea are one step from the
war whose conflict can begin at any moment
The time has come for humankind to provide itself with the most urgently possible tools
necessary to build a world of peace. The UN that was founded after World War II has
been inoperative throughout its history. She has not been successful in building a world
of peace. There is an urgent need to restructure the UN so that it can exercise global
governance that will enable it to mediate international conflicts and ensure world peace.
World governance to be exercised by the UN would aim at defending the planet's
general interests, ensuring that each nation state respects the rights of every citizen of
the world and seeks to prevent the spread of global systemic risks. It would avoid the
empire of one and the anarchy of all.
* Fernando Alcoforado, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor of Territorial
Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, a university professor and
consultant in strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is
the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova
(Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São
Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado.
Universidade de Barcelona, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e
Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX
e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of
the Economic and Social Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller
Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe
Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável-
Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do
Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social
(Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática
4
Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015) and As Grandes Revoluções Científicas,
Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016).

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The focuses of war in the world and its perspectives

  • 1. 1 THE FOCUSES OF WAR IN THE WORLD AND THEIR PERSPECTIVE Fernando Alcoforado * There are several countries that may be foci of wars in the world, including Syria, Palestine, Israel, Iran and North Korea. In the contemporary era, international geopolitical chess points to the existence of three major players: the United States, China and Russia. From the confrontation between these three great military powers in the future, alternatives scenarios to the current may arise that are characterized by the loss of US hegemony on the world stage since the end of the bipolar world confronting the United States and the Soviet Union. Syria is today the epicenter of a battle that brings together various actors: the great enemy regional powers (Iran and Saudi Arabia) and historical allies (the USA allied of Saudi Arabia and Iran allied of Russia). The Syrian conflict began when President Bachar Al Assad launched an offensive against the rebels of the Syrian Free Army. Meanwhile, other actors entered the scene inside the rebel movement, followed by extremists from the Islamic State (ISIS) and the Kurds. It has become clear that the geopolitical interests of the parties involved are very different. It can be said that Syria has a fundamental strategic importance because it is the last stone of geopolitical chess in the region whose fall of Bachar Al Assad would lead to the siege of Iran, enabling the Western allies to reach the territory of this country by the Mediterranean Sea and Iraq which would guarantee passage for Allied troops to reach Iranian borders. Syria, which borders Israel, has always been important in the Middle East and, especially today, is part of a very delicate geopolitical chess because it is an allied country of Iran, along with those who sponsor extremely aggressive terrorist movements such as Hezbollah and Hamas in opposition to the State of Israel. The recent US-led attack by US President Donald Trump on a Bashar al-Assad air base in Syria has widened the United States-Russia deadlock over the civil war, with both sides promising the use of force. The tone adopted by the two nuclear powers was a threat, raising the tension between Washington and Moscow at a level similar to that experienced in the Cold War. The Kremlin called the US action "aggression" and "violation of international law" and said it would suspend the channel of communication with United States forces used to prevent the two countries from attacking Syria, since both operate in the country. Palestine and Israel are foci of a new world war because they have been in conflict since the end of World War I when Zionist Jews expressed the desire to create a modern state in their ancestral land and began to create settlements in the region, at the time still controlled by the Ottoman Empire. Both Israelis and Palestinians claim their share of the land based on history, religion and culture. The great victorious powers of World War I decided the destiny of Palestine in favor of the Jews, being used for this of the League of Nations, thus configuring the arrogance that have always characterized the international relations throughout history. The Palestinians saw in the patronage they gave first to Britain and then the League of Nations to the Zionist project of creating the Jewish national home in Palestine denial of their right to independence.
  • 2. 2 Since then, there has been much violence and controversy surrounding the issue, as well as several processes of peace negotiations during the twentieth century. The State of Israel was founded in 1948 after the UN-led Sharing Plan, which divided the region, then under British rule, into Arab and Jewish states. After World War II, there were several conflicts between Palestinians and neighboring Arab nations that did not agree with the territorial division of the former Palestinian lands. Since the establishment of the State of Israel, the conflict that has set it against the Palestinians has been the epicenter of a conflict between Israel and all Arab countries, with strong repercussions worldwide. There were wars with Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon, but without the tension in the region diminishing. During this period, Israel occupied the Sinai Peninsula, the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, the Golan Heights and southern Lebanon. The State of Israel has sovereignty over much of the territory that was conquered after the defeat of the Arabs in two wars - the Arab-Israeli conflict of 1948 and the 1967 Six- Day War. In 1993, the Oslo Agreement was signed, which initiated the peace process with the Palestinians. Under the agreement, the Gaza Strip and the West Bank would become a territory administered by the Palestinian National Authority (PNA). In 2005, Israel withdrew its Jewish troops and settlers - under their protests - from the Gaza Strip. Despite the devolution of the Gaza Strip and parts of the West Bank to Palestinian control, a final agreement still needed to be established. To do so, it would be necessary to resolve the main points of contention, which are the status of Jerusalem, the fate of Palestinian refugees and Jewish settlements. It is unlikely that the conflict between Palestinians and Jews will be resolved today because existing international institutions are not able to build a negotiated way out of the conflict between these two peoples and between Israel and the Arab countries. Iran is, also, focus of a new world war when it decided a few years ago to possess nuclear weapons and become a regional power - rooted in both Persian nationalism and Shi'a Islam - to end its fears of being a victim of American aggression and or Israeli. The Iranian government has convinced itself that only the true possession of weapons of mass destruction can free it from an external attack. Forty years ago, restrictions were imposed by the major powers that developed nuclear weapons to other non-nuclear countries, including Iran, limiting the use of nuclear energy to peaceful purposes, and preventing it from being used for military purposes. This was done through the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which legitimized the possession of nuclear weapons by the United States, the Soviet Union, Britain, France and China and tried to prevent other nations from developing them by restricting their access to nuclear technology. Today, in addition to the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom and France, they are in possession of nuclear weapons India, North Korea, Pakistan and Israel. Israel does not confirm or deny the reports of experts who accuse it of possessing a large nuclear arsenal estimated at more than 100 warheads, being the only one with such weapons in the Middle East. In turn, Iran and Syria are accused of having secret nuclear weapons programs. To date, 187 countries have ratified the NPT and none have withdrawn from the pact except North Korea, which did so in 2003. A number of countries have criticized the perpetual nuclear monopoly imposed by the treaty on legitimizing existing weapons and does not admit that other countries have them. Iran is a signatory to the NPT that prevents the country from developing nuclear weapons, but
  • 3. 3 grants the right to use and develop nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. The United States considers that Iran's nuclear energy program aims at producing nuclear weapons and is not for peaceful purposes as the Iranian government claims. North Korea may be the focus of a new world war because the tension between the United States and North Korea has existed for many years, but has intensified since Donald Trump took over the White House in January of this year. Donald Trump threatens to attack the Asian country if the Pyongyang regime continues with its military tests. It should be noted that among 1950 and 1953 occurred the Korean War that was part of the geopolitical dispute between the United States and the Soviet Union. It was the first armed conflict of the Cold War, causing worldwide apprehension because there was an imminent risk of a nuclear war due to the direct involvement between the two military superpowers of the time. It should be noted that after the end of World War II with the surrender and withdrawal of Japanese troops, the north became an ally of the Soviets and Chinese, while the south came under US influence. The United States entered the war alongside South Korea, while China (allied with the Soviet Union) sent troops into the conflict zone to support North Korea. In 1953, South Korea, backed by the United States and other capitalist countries, had several military victories. In 1953, the US government threatened to use nuclear weapons against North Korea and China if the war was not ended with the North Korean surrender. On March 28, 1953, North Korea and China accepted the United Nations peace proposal. With the end of the war, the two Koreas remained divided and the geopolitical conflicts continued, although they were no longer for the military area. North Korea currently remains with the communist regime, while South Korea remains in the capitalist system. At the present time, the United States and North Korea are one step from the war whose conflict can begin at any moment The time has come for humankind to provide itself with the most urgently possible tools necessary to build a world of peace. The UN that was founded after World War II has been inoperative throughout its history. She has not been successful in building a world of peace. There is an urgent need to restructure the UN so that it can exercise global governance that will enable it to mediate international conflicts and ensure world peace. World governance to be exercised by the UN would aim at defending the planet's general interests, ensuring that each nation state respects the rights of every citizen of the world and seeks to prevent the spread of global systemic risks. It would avoid the empire of one and the anarchy of all. * Fernando Alcoforado, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor of Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, a university professor and consultant in strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática
  • 4. 4 Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015) and As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016).