Future foresight Tulevaisuuden ennakointi

1. ”THE CHALLENGE OF
FUTURE FORESIGHT”
21 November 2012
Sari-Maarit Peltola
University Teacher, Lic.Ph.

2. From Determinism to
Determination
Three Kinds of People:
• People who wonder what happened
• People who watch things happen
• People who make things happen
Four Possible Attitudes:
· Passivity
· Reactivity
· Proactivity
· Foresight
(Aaltonen 2005)

3. 20 years ago there was NO:
• Internet, World Wide Web, PCs, or mobile phones
• European Union, WTO, ICC, or NATO in Eastern Europe
• Talk of globalization, cloned sheep, genetically modified food
and drugs, and stem cells repairing and enhancing the body
• Robots surveying Mars
• Asymmetrical warfare… and most believed that a nuclear
WW III would have destroyed the world by now
• AIDS
(Aaltonen 2005)

4. …in the NEXT 10 years
• IQ becomes the competitive advantage in the global knowledge economy
(personalized food, genetic engineering, computer enhanced learning)
• Stem cells from cows and fish to produce meat
• Nanotechnology reduces pollution, raises living standards of the poor
• Life Extension begins to look like a realistic option while the aging population
increases economic concerns
• Solar Power Satellites for world’s electricity needs without producing
greenhouse gases or nuclear waste
• Genetic engineering and artificial intelligence creates new life forms that
achieve awareness and evolve – with unknown economic consequences
• A global brain emerges from Internet evolving later into
Conscious-Technology
(Aaltonen 2005)

5. FUTURE FORESIGHT
Foresight is about looking forward.
Future is something that does not exist.
(Wilenius 2008)

6. WHY FORESIGHT?
If a company is not driven by its vision, strategy and values, it
will be unable effectively to manage and use its potential
competence-based resources.
The company’s future is influnced by both internal and
external factors.
Forecasting changes has become a core element of the
strategic management of organizations.
Idea of foresight is to look for options and opportunities for
change before the business is forced to change.
The main axis of competiton is between pioneers and early
adopters of new business concepts, and reactive and
conformist organizations.
(Wilenius 2008)

7. The Diffusion of Innovations
(Rogers 1962; Wejnert 2002)

8. BASIC RULES
FOR FUTURE FORESIGHT
(Wilenius 2008; see also Cornish 2004)

9. Ennakoinnin tasot (Becker)
Kokonaisvaltainen: ennakointi kattaa koko spektrin
yhteiskunnasta teknologiaan (esim. Philips, DaimlerChrystler,
Decathlon, Ericsson, EDF)
Makro-tasoinen: ennakointi kattaa monia erilaisia aihealueita
(Aventis, BASF; BT)
Meso-tasoinen: ennakointi keskittyy tiettyyn
tutkimuskenttään, tiedekysymykseen tai tuotealueeseen (DB,
Volvo, Siemens, IBM)
Mikrotasoinen: ennakointi liittyy johonkin määrättyyn
tutkimusprojektiin tai tuotteeseen (P&G, Lufthansa)
(Hiltunen 2012)

10. (Ståhle & Ståhle 2006)

11. FUTURE FORECASTS
AND TRENDS
Gigatrends
Megatrends (Naisbitt 1982)
Metatrends and weak signals
Antitrends
(see e.g. Nurmi et al. 2010; Ahola & Palkamo
2009; Ahvenainen et al. 2009)

12. GIGATRENDS
Growth of population, aging of population
Economic growth
Development of technology
(Ahvenainen, Hietanen & Huhtanen 2009)

16. Toteutunut ja ennustettu
väestönkehitys Suomessa
(Rantala 2006, 125)

17. Väestö iän ja sukupuolen mukaan vuonna 2010
(Tilastokeskuksen väestöennuste, 2009)

18. Väestö iän ja sukupuolen mukaan vuonna 2050, ennuste
(Tilastokeskuksen väestöennuste, 2009)

19. Kulutus ikäryhmittäin
(VATT/Riihelä 2006)
Nuoret käyttävät selvästi enemmän tietoliikennepalveluja kuin
iäkkäämmät
Ruokamenot eivät enää kasva iän myötä ja ruokamenojen
tilanne ovat tulleet palvelumenot.
60+ ikäiset kuluttavat palveluja (esim. matkailu, asuminen)
aiempaa selvästi enemmän ja palvelujen hankkimiseen
kulutetaan selvästi enemmän rahaa kuin tavaroiden hankintaan
60+ ikäiset kuluttavat palvelujen lisäksi muita ikäryhmiä
enemmän alkoholia ja tupakkaa

20. GLOBAL MEGATRENDS
Globalization
Development of technology
Changes in work (career, tasks, working
methods)

21. (Turkki 2010)

22. (Haavisto 2010)

23. What motivates future
employees?
Motivation is made up of three things:
• Autonomy
• Opportunity to develop own skills
• Human interaction
External motivation will shift to internal
motivation. (Pink)
(Halava & Pantzar 2010)

24. Antitrends
For EVERY big movement there is an ANTI
movement.
For example:
• Megatrend: More from Less – Anti-trend: Less from
Less
• Megatrend: A Personal Touch – Anti-trend: Reducing
Choice
• Megatrend: Divergent Demographics - Anti-trend:
Growing Global Health
• Megatrend: On the move – Anti-trend: Fulfilment
• Megatrend: iWorld – Anti-trend: Opting out
(Harper 2010)

25. WEAK SIGNALS IN ORGANIZATIONAL
FUTURES LEARNING
Organizational Strategic Foresight Weak
learning signals
Theories of organizational Theories of strategy, Theories of
learning and change foresight tools perception,
information
and weak signals
(Hiltunen 2010)

26. Tools in strategy work
Environmental scanning: SWOT-analysis (strengths,
weaknesses, opportunities, threats), PESTEC (political,
economic, social, technological, environmental/ecological,
customers/cultural), etc.
Scenarios: alternative futures (e.g. Shell)
Scenario approach: the development of what a company can
and want to be in these environments and finally formulating
the strategy of company in the way the information provided
by scenarios is taken into account. (Meristö in Hiltunen 2010)
Futures mapping: description of the present stage,
considering the shared vision, indentifying megatrends,
identifying weak signals, making sceranios, preparing action
strategies for scenarios, planning accions for near future.
Megatrends
Weak signals

27. Examples of scenarios
http://www.shippingscenarios.wartsila.com/
Sony’s scenarios

28. Globaalit skenaariot
(EVA 2009)

29. (EVA 2009)

31. Villit kortit
Tapahtuma, joka tapahtuu nopeasti ja jolla
on laaja-alaiset vaikutukset. (Hiltunen
2012)
Mustat joutsenet (Taleb), strategiset
yllätykset (Ansoff), odottamattomat
tapahtumat (Lindkvist)
Luonnon ja ihmisen aikaansaamat
Esim. WTC 2001, Eyjafjallajökull-tulivuoren
purkaus 2010…

32. WEAK SIGNAL
A weak signal is something strange, new,
amazing, crazy that exist today and might
foretell about forthcoming changes - or
then not. (Hiltunen)
Weak signals are warnings (external of
internal), events and developments that are
still too incomplete to permit an accurate
estimation of their impact and/or to
determine their complete responses.
(Ansoff)

33. DEVELOPMENT OF
A WEAK SIGNAL
(Coffman 1997)

34. A weak signal test
1. Makes your colleguages to laugh
2. Your collaguages are opposing it: no way, it
will never happen
3. Makes people to wonder
4. No one has heard about it before
5. It is wanted that no-one talks about it
anymore (a tabu)
1-5 ticks and it IS a weak signal!
(Hiltunen 2010)

35. Where Can You Find
Weak Signals?
Surfing in the Internet
Blogs, blogs, blogs
Keeping your eyes and ears open
(Hiltunen 2010)
Hiltunen’s list of sources of weak signals:
http://www.future.vuodatus.net/page/lahteita

36. Futurists’ best sources
for weak signals
1. Scientists/researchers
2. Futurists
3. Colleagues
4. Academic and scientific journals
5. Reports of research institutes
6. Consultants in areas other than futures
7. Popular science and economic magazines
8. Television/radio
9. Educational and scientific books
10. Internet: companies’ or organizations’ web
pages
11. Ordinary people (e.g. observing them)
12. Media people
13. Internet: electronic journals
14. Internet: homepages of individual
people/consultants
15. Email newsletters
16. Science fiction movies, books etc.
17. Government and other public sector reports
18. Internet: discussion groups
19. Internet: Blogs
20. Marginal/underground press
21. Periodicals
22. Local newspapers
23. Internet: electronic databases
24. Govenment officials
25. Email lists
26. Movies
27. Artists
28. Market research studies
29. Politicians
30. Annual reports of companies
31. Family/friends
32. Patents
33. Doctoral dissertations
34. Proposals for laws
35. Other source?
36. Art exhibitions
(Hiltunen 2010)

37. http://unhate.benetton.com/

41. Elfoid P1-- a REAL android phone

46. ACTVOD futures process
Methods:
• Futures workshop
• Futures wheel (Glenn)
• Futures table (Seppälä)
• Soft systems methodology, CATWOD (customers, actors,
transformation process, worldview,owners ja environmental
constraints; Checkland)
• Delphi (before or during a workshop)
• Stories/scenarios
• Action plan/strategy
ACTVOD futures table
• combines futures table and CATWOD
• ACTVOD table (actors, customers, transformation process,
values, obstacles ja drivers.
(see e.g. Hietanen 2009)

47. (Heinonen 2009)

49. Delfoi-prosessi (delphi method)
Aiheen valinta ja tarkennus
Asiantuntijoiden valinta ja mahdolliset esihaastattelut
Kysymysten kirjaaminen (esihaastattelujen pohjalta)
Asiantuntijat vastaavat kysymyksiin anonyymisti (kierros 1)
Vastausten analysointi ja kysymysten uudelleen muokkaus
Asiantuntijat vastaavat kysymyksiin (kierros 2)
Tarpeen tullen vaiheiden 5-6 toistaminen
Tulosten analysointi ja raportointi
(Hiltunen 2012)

50. Future of communication
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iu0ztxds
Fis

51. http://www.vtt.fi/tomorrow/
2019 by Microsoft
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwj2s_5
e12U
Watch your day in 2020

52. Usefull sources
Ahola, E. & Palkamo, A. (eds.) 2009. Megatrendit ja me. Tekesin katsaus
255/2009.
Cornish, E. 2004. Futuring: The Exploration of the Future. World Future
Society. Betsheda.
Hiltunen, E. 2012. Matkaopas tulevaisuuteen. Talentum.
Hiltunen, E. 2010. Weak signals in Organizational Futures Learning.
Academic dissertation. Helsinki School of Economics.
Rantala, O. 2006. Talouden seuranta ja ennustaminen. In Nikinmaa, T. &
Vartia, P. (eds.) Luotettavaa tietoa taloudesta. ETLA 60 vuotta.
Elinkeinoelämän tutkimuslaitos. 113-126.
Wilenius, M. 2008. Taming the dragon: how to tackle the challenge of future
foresight. Business Strategy Series, 9 (2), 65-77.