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Foresight General Concept & Methodology

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This presentation on Foresight General Concept & Methodology was made at Akademi Sains Malaysia for members of malaysian foresight alliance

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Foresight General Concept & Methodology

  1. 1. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. RUSHDI ABDUL RAHIM rushdi@might.org.my FORESIGHT CONCEPT & METHODOLOGY
  2. 2. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  3. 3. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. The Governing Board....provide advise on the strategic direction and focus areas of the institute
  4. 4. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  5. 5. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  6. 6. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. www.might.org.my www.myforesight.my
  7. 7. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. periodic publications
  8. 8. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. Introduction to Foresight & Futures Foresight tools and methodology
  9. 9. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. Introduction to Foresight & Futures Foresight tools and methodology
  10. 10. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. “However good our futures research may be, we shall never be able to escape from the ultimate dilemma that all our knowledge is about the past, and all our decision are about the future” IAN WILSON “The only way to predict the future is to have power to shape the future” ERIC HOFFER “The present moment contains past and future. The secret of transformation, is in the way we handle this very moment.” NHAT HANH “Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive a country road with no lights while looking out the back window” PETER DRUCKER
  11. 11. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. foresight & futures thinking
  12. 12. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  13. 13. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  14. 14. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. future is not necessarily continuation of the past
  15. 15. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. 1 2 3 4 5 By 1967, London would be buried six feet deep in horse dung!
  16. 16. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  17. 17. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  18. 18. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  19. 19. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. predictions gone wrong
  20. 20. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, 1977 President, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp. (DEC)
  21. 21. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. “Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” Lord Kelvin, 1895 British mathematician and physicist, President of the British Royal Society.
  22. 22. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. “The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.” Sir William Preece, 1878 Chief Engineer, British Post Office,
  23. 23. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. what is Foresight?
  24. 24. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. “Foresight is a matter of studying the present, learning from the past and understanding the needs of the future” Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad
  25. 25. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. Learning of the past to ensure we avoid repeating mistakes USING THE PAST & FUTURE TO DECIDE ON TODAY Understanding & exploring futures to mitigate risk and maximizing opportunities Certain. Things have happened • Can’t change • Historical data Moving. Constant changes • Respond & adapt • Shape & influence Uncertain. Have not happened • Shape & influence
  26. 26. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. …Foresight prepares us to meet the need and opportunities of the future... It is not planning but merely a step in planning… Joseph Coates
  27. 27. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. The terms ‘Foresight’ and ‘Futures’ are largely interchangeable, referring to: ‘systematic and purposeful processes of future-oriented deliberation between participants with a view to identifying actions to be taken, or goals to be pursued for better future outcomes.’ FORESIGHT Participation Stakeholders Engagement Action Policy-making & Planning Anticipation Prospective & Futures Adopted from: R. Popper
  28. 28. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. objectives of Foresight Direction setting: provides direction and focus for national strategic planning and other strategy to realize the objectives of Vision or Goals Determining priorities: perhaps the most important aim of Foresight and the driving force in most of the documented country exercises against a background of resources restraint and increasing demands Anticipatory intelligence: identification of emerging trends with major implications for future policy making Consensus generation: promotion of greater agreement among stakeholders on identified needs or opportunities Advocacy: promotion of policy decisions in line with preferences of specific stakeholders in the system Communication and education: promotion of internal communication within the stakeholders community, promotion of external communications with users of policy and wider education of the general public, politicians and bureaucrats.
  29. 29. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  30. 30. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. Introduction to Foresight & Futures Foresight tools and methodology
  31. 31. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. the tools & methods
  32. 32. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. Scenario Planning Technology Prioritization Online Survey Bibliography Analysis Patent Analysis STEEP Analysis Delphi Expert Panels Workshops & Focus Groups choosing the right method • To negate the relatively high level of cynicism of the stakeholders; • To enable change of thinking and mind set; • To inculcate and incorporate discipline and subjectivity. This includes receptiveness towards methods and systematic approaches of foresight; • To ensure engagement of diverse and equal distribution of participants; • The need to sustain continued interest in the foresight exercises by introducing creative and participatory approaches; • Enabling use of multi tools environment • The need to educate potential stakeholders on the benefits and potential impact of foresight; Methods that were chosen signify the needs to cater its adoption to Malaysia’s case studies. Therefore the selection and combination of methods are made to ensure the best outcome and participation of stakeholders in Malaysia. This includes but not limited to the following:-
  33. 33. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. generic Foresight process
  34. 34. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. how we do it? Data Collection & Analysis Scenario Building Identification & Recommendations DIAGNOSIS PROGNOSIS PRESCRIPTION
  35. 35. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. how we do it?  What are the objectives?  What Time Horizon are we looking at?  Building on existing resources and materials  What is the cost?  Who are the stakeholders?  Stakeholders availability?  How much time do you have?  Matching skills & competencies… Data Collection & Analysis Scenario Building Identification & Recommendations DIAGNOSIS PROGNOSIS PRESCRIPTION Foresight Scoping
  36. 36. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. Scenarios Analysis Scenarios Building the process List of Sector’s Drivers Consolidation of data gathering - Sector Social Technology Economy Environment Policy Key Strategic Areas & Action Plan Defining criteria Feasibility Signposts List of Candidates Opportunities & Threats Delivery, Utilization & Feedback Intelligence Processes List of key stakeholders Influence & relationship Participation Scale Review of Listing Scenario Writing Direction of Change Drivers Networks Analysis Impact – Uncertainty Analysis MainProcess List of Drivers of Change Preliminary ListingEnvironmental Scanning Need Analysis Primary Research Analysis Review of Scenario Products & Services Defining criteria Attractiveness Evaluation of Strategy & Action plan Review of list of Candidates Data Intelligence & Horizon Scanning Stages 1 3 4 5 62 Drivers Formulation Stakeholders’ Mapping Recommendation Secondary Research
  37. 37. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. Diagnosis
  38. 38. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. • Scoping • Weak signals • Mega trends • Drivers of change • Plausible scenarios • Future niche • Future priority areas • Strategies horizon scanning Source: myForesight® analytics
  39. 39. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. myForesight® trend scanning framework utilizes the STEEP approach that is also known by a number of different acronyms; PEST, STEEP, STEEPV, PESTELV & SEPTED but generally they all follow a similar framework and identify similar issues. The analysis is very useful as it offers a wide ranging framework from which to identify main drivers and build scenarios looking at all perspectives STEEPV analysis SOCIAL FORCES ECONOMIC FORCES POLITICAL FORCES ENVIRONMENT FORCES TECHNOLOGY FORCES VALUE FORCES
  40. 40. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. lenses Source: myForesight® analytics
  41. 41. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. diagnosis ecosystem Source: myForesight® analytics Political Economic Social Technological Environment Legal Value External Factors Trends, Issues & Challenges Internal Factors Trends, Issues & Challenges Driver 1 Actor: Champion, sponsors & project team (overall structure) Participation & Target Groups: Stakeholders (Government, Industry, Academia, Associations, NGO, Clients, regulators etc. Driver n Purpose
  42. 42. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. MEGA TRENDS impact relativity risk, threat & opportunities long term
  43. 43. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  44. 44. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  45. 45. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  46. 46. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  47. 47. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  48. 48. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  49. 49. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  50. 50. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  51. 51. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  52. 52. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  53. 53. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  54. 54. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  55. 55. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  56. 56. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  57. 57. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  58. 58. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  59. 59. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  60. 60. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  61. 61. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. “Technology will have ingrained itself into every sphere of human activity” “by 2015, 1 trillion devices will be interconnected, exchanging information” “Technology intrusiveness, human literally live in technology”
  62. 62. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. “Technology will understand data they’re processing” “Machines will increasingly be able to work autonomously” “Technology will be replacing routine & unsociable work ”
  63. 63. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. “Technology will be relating to humans in human like ways” “Humans will form emotional attachments to technology”
  64. 64. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. “Accelerating rate of technology convergence & application” “Development of new and novel applications & usage”
  65. 65. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. Prognosis
  66. 66. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. ……is a story with plausible cause and effect links that connects a future condition with the present, while illustrating key decisions, events, and consequences throughout the narrative. What is a Scenario? – Foresight Perspective not predictions or forecasts stories that describe how things might be in the future based on an analysis of change drivers simplify some of the apparent complexity in the world
  67. 67. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. Typical Scenarios ..is a statement about the plausible state of an observation at a certain point in the future Present Image of the Future Scenario α Directions of Change, X Directions of Change, Y Directions of Change, Z Scenario β Scenario Ω
  68. 68. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. Type of Scenarios There are multiple type of scenarios… 2x2 …archetype… multi drivers BEST CASE WORST CASE BUSINESS AS USUAL WILD CARD
  69. 69. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. • Drivers are the key forces in the macro-environment that underpin important trends and issues. • Some of these forces are largely predetermined (e.g. often demographics), whilst some are highly uncertain (e.g. oil and gas prices). • When constructing scenarios, it is very useful to know what is inevitable and necessary and what is unpredictable and a matter of choice. Understanding drivers of change
  70. 70. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  71. 71. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. The South African Mont Fleur project: • Mont Fleur was intended to influence the future of South Africa through the development of several scenarios about how things might unfold over the coming decades. • The project took place right in the middle of a complex period of many kinds of negotiations about how to make the transition away from apartheid. • The Mont Fleur work was done by a team of leaders drawn from organizations that ranged across the political map: community activists, conservative politicians, ANC officials, trade unionists, academics, establishment economists, top corporate executives. Adam Kahane, Generon
  72. 72. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. The 4 scenarios of Mont Fleur • Ostrich was a story of the white government believing that it could avoid a negotiated settlement with the black majority, burying its head in the sand, and thereby making make matters worse in the end • Lame Duck told the story of a prolonged transition where the new government is hobbled by compromises built into the constitution and, because “it purports to respond to all but satisfies none”, it doesn’t address the country’s problems • Icarus described a strong black majority government coming to power on a wave of popular support and embarking on a huge, unsustainable public spending spree that crashes the economy • Flight of the Flamingos was a story about how the new government could avoid the pitfalls of the first three scenarios and gradually rebuild a successful economy
  73. 73. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. Prescriptions
  74. 74. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. from scenarios to strategies Actions that are needed whatever the scenario (Imperatives) Actions needed to reach a preferred future outcome (Preferences) Recommendations for future strategy & action Strategic implications Drivers of change Issues & trends Scenarios Involves assessing actions against capabilities and competencies, identifying opportunities and reviewing risks
  75. 75. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. analysing the scenarios • Once we have defined our scenarios, we need to ask:  How might we know if this scenario is emerging?  What would be leading indicators (sign posts)?  What should we be monitoring? • Undertake comparison of the different scenario • Are there issues, strategies, etc. that apply across all or many of these? • Usually the workshop will end with some examination/ prioritisation of actions “Strategy" is the art of determining how you'll "win" in business and life.
  76. 76. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Strategy element 1 Strategy element 2 Strategy element n testing the strategy To test out the strategic responses that we just developed for our own scenarios, in other groups’ scenarios. This will give us a sense of how robust (or not) our responses are.
  77. 77. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 • Identifying possible actions through break-out groups (per scenario) or via other approaches – Who should do WHAT, WHEN, with what targets & indicators • Relating actions to scenarios – How do various projects look in the different scenario • Prioritising & Selecting Activities – Which to do now, later, keep on back burner, how much resource (or what kind) to invest etc. • What does this mean for ongoing planning and strategizing: intra- and inter-organisation dimensions translating scenarios
  78. 78. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. Analyze the scenarios (α, β & Ω) and suggest potential opportunities and threats potentially resulting from the scenarios identifying future opportunities & threats /risks Source: myForesight® analytics
  79. 79. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. Each areas/strategy/items are ranked according to:- identification & prioritization Feasibility (Readiness) • Maturity & acceptance, time horizon of impact; • Application potential & diffusion; • Resources & infrastructure. Attractiveness (Socio Economic) • Economic & industrial impact; • Competition; • Social impact; • Knowledge generation;
  80. 80. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. prioritisation diagram Likelihood to happen Impact Score of 4 or higher Higher priority field with strong attractiveness & feasibility potential Medium Score ( 3 to 4) Field that could be selected after more careful & detail cost benefit analysis Score under 2 points Limited attractiveness & feasibility potential LimitedSubstantialSeriousVerySeriousCatastrophic Highly unlikely Unlikely Possible Likely Highly likely
  81. 81. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. key players in OTEC technology 35 18 37 27 34 18 6 6 6 6 6 8 4 5 3 5 5 5 5 Platform Mooring Pump Turbine Heat exchanger Cold Water Pipe Patent distribution based on technology areas LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION, US THE ABELL FOUNDATION, INC., US OTEC DEVELOPMENTS, US PRUEITT MELVIN L, US United States Department of Energy,US Top five (5) companies patents filed distribution based on technology areas from 2009 to 2014 . Lockheed Martin corporation and Abell Foundation INC. are found to be the main contributors in OTEC research based on patents filed in six technology areas. Source: myForesight® analytics
  82. 82. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. technology focus area Technology Areas: i. Improvement of existing platforms, ii. Platform mooring iii. Pumps iv. Turbines v. Heat exchanger vi. Cold water pipes 15 8 28 21 22 7 15 14 50 30 27 5 39 28 49 39 33 11 26 8 31 27 23 11 24 17 39 35 32 13 18 9 25 13 16 7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 platform platform Mooring pump turbine heat exchanger cold water pipe Number of patent registered (2009-2014) on OTEC Technology; Pumps, turbines and heat exchanger technologies are the areas that most focus from 2009 to 2014 Source: myForesight® analytics
  83. 83. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. bibliography analysis Source: myForesight® analytics
  84. 84. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. Foresight… Mindset vs Method
  85. 85. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. Politically correct & sensitivity Stakeholders engagement - organisations vs. individuals Schedule and timeline – holidays, ad hoc meetings Foresight vs. traditional strategic management planning Adapting Foresight to non- academic practice Fast result, immature analysis ? Challenges in Foresight activities
  86. 86. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. …based on experiences in implementing the case studies, there are several critical components that would enhance effectiveness in transforming policy planning into actions as follows: • Intermediaries – there is a need for a strong intermediary role especially involving cross-ministerial and multi-sectoral domains as well as capable of performing strategic thinking on top of secretariat works. • Align to the national agenda – there is a need to integrate and synergy with the national agenda (big picture) • Champions – there is a need to identify and get buy-in at the early stage from relevant stakeholders which will involve actively in the implementation stage • Strategic Platforms – leverage and maximise the use of available means such as strategic partnership, offsets program, national council, to name a few. Key Enablers – Foresight to Policy Making & Implementation
  87. 87. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  88. 88. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
  89. 89. . This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source. the end RUSHDI ABDUL RAHIM rushdi@might.org.my

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