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Three horizons

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Overview of the Three Horizons concept and how to implement for a client. Includes bonus foresight slides for background.

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Three horizons

  1. 1. Copyright Cody Clark, Creative Commons License, 20111 The Three Horizons Innovation Framework 1 2 4 Horizon 1 Present (0-2 yrs) Horizon 2 Next (2-5 yrs) Horizon 3 Future (5+ yrs)Suppliers/ Vendors Customers Enabling Technologies Workforce Competitors Security Environment New Missions/ Programs Scanning: Anticipate and track change drivers emerging from the transactional environment Framing: Mission, CSFs Goals, Objectives Strengths/Weaknesses Product Cycle Time Risk Posture Environment Assessment: Opportunity and/or Threat? Power of Impact Scope of Impact Probability Velocity 3 Assign items from scanning to one of the three horizons as they are assessed Budget/ Economy 5 Portfolio Management: Separate prioritization schemes for each horizon Tech Planning Projects Concept Development, Prototypes Monitoring, Research
  2. 2. Copyright Cody Clark, Creative Commons License, 20112 Framing the Three Horizons for MOD Mission, CSFs – What do you do and how do you measure success? Goals, Objectives – Current vision and strategy Strengths/Weaknesses – Necessary to understand sensitivity to change Product Cycle Time – How much time do you need to react? Risk Posture – Where do you want to be on the tech adoption curve? Transactional Environment – Define the entities in the environment that are relevant sources of external change Rogers Diffusion of Innovations Curve Innovator? Mainstream? Risk Averse? Gartner Hype Curve
  3. 3. Copyright Cody Clark, Creative Commons License, 20113 Horizon 1 Present Horizon 2 Next Horizon 3 Future Who Participates? Standard project governance MSRB with SRWG in support? SRWG facilitates process for all of MOD Horizon Length (based on product cycle and dynamic nature of the environment) 0-2 Years 2-5 years 5+ years Est. Percent of Budget (rule of thumb based on risk posture, etc.) 70% for Early Adopter ~93% Late Majority 20% for Early Adopter ~5% Late Majority 10% for Early Adopter ~2% Late Majority Prioritization Criteria Typical project portfolio management. Impact assessment matrix. Horizon 3 impact assessment with business case/ROI considerations Objective assessment of drivers themselves -- impact, probability, velocity… Subjective assessment of drivers against goals, strengths, weaknesses… Tools/Activities Legacy tech planning process Prototypes, trade studies, white papers, roadmaps Scenarios, Relevance Trees, Cross-impact analysis, Delphi, Signposts , Vision networks… Three Horizons in Detail
  4. 4. Copyright Cody Clark, Creative Commons License, 2011 Appendix: Background on Potentially Relevant Foresight Concepts Compiled and Created by Cody Clark
  5. 5. Copyright Cody Clark, Creative Commons License, 20115 Characterizing Change  Sources - Incoming: Change we experience - Outgoing: Change we create  Location - Internal - External  Change Rates - Continuous: Trends, Cycles - Discontinuous: Events, wildcards  S-Curve  Punctuated Equilibrium S-Curve Era Era EraTransition Transition 1 2 3
  6. 6. Copyright Cody Clark, Creative Commons License, 20116 Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations Curve Web Beyond… Offline Web, Internet Of Things, Biological Web, ??? Web 3.0 Connecting Programs/ Intelligence Web 2.0 Connecting People Web 1.0 Connecting Information
  7. 7. Copyright Cody Clark, Creative Commons License, 20117 Cumulative Distribution of the Rogers Curve is the “S- Curve” of change S-Curve 1 2 3 Also called the “Issues Management Curve”
  8. 8. Copyright Cody Clark, Creative Commons License, 20118 Anticipating Change • Disruptive Change is not completely unforeseeable • Evidence of the future is always available in the present (Horizon 1) Era Era EraTransition Transition Era Era Transition 1 2 3 Anticipatory Proactive Reactive Anticipate and Act Early
  9. 9. Copyright Cody Clark, Creative Commons License, 20119 Cone of Plausibility Present Past More Risk, More Strategic Advantage Less Risk, Less Strategic Advantage Vision: Preferable Baseline: Probable Alternatives: Plausible, Possible 1-3 yr horizon 5-10 yr horizon 20+ yr horizon Futures There is inherent risk that comes with anticipation
  10. 10. Copyright Cody Clark, Creative Commons License, 201110 Technology Assessment Analyze Timing Current State •Technology Readiness Level •Awareness Level, Gartner’s “Hype Curve” •Technology Adoption Level “Velocity” – Timing of past states relative to present Future States •Time to Market •Time to Awareness Technology Readiness Level Technology Diffusions Curve Technology Adoption Curve
  11. 11. Copyright Cody Clark, Creative Commons License, 201111 Estimate Probability of Impact Anticipate Scope/Reach •limited specialty/sub domain impacted •entire domain/market impacted •multiple domains/markets impacted •universal social impact Anticipate Disruptiveness •Power – personal level of impact •Which key domain constraints, assumptions may be overturned? •Leverage on System Dynamics •System Dynamics Leverage Modeling, or •Donella Meadows’ 12 Systemic Leverage Points •Vulnerability -- Consider client ability to respond (flexibility, capability, etc.) Technology Assessment Potential Impact Era Era Era Transition Transition How Disruptive? Power: What level of personal need might it affect? How much Systemic Leverage?
  12. 12. Copyright Cody Clark, Creative Commons License, 2011 12 Visioning Strategic Actions Forecasting Futures Method Overview What is likely to happen: Probable, Possible Futures What we want to happen: Preferable Futures What we do to close the gap: Planned Futures
  13. 13. Copyright Cody Clark, Creative Commons License, 2011 Scenario Generation Approaches From University Futures, (http://www.universityfutures.org/prospective_methods)
  14. 14. Copyright Cody Clark, Creative Commons License, 2011 Incasting  Method of exploring alternative futures  Activities - Input: Given a scenario logic/description as input (e.g. from scenario generation exercise) - Accept the scenario as basis of exercise. (Not allowed to question the scenario) - Explore the scenario using STEEP and some “Day in the life” type questions, such as….  Who are the winners and losers in this scenario?  What challenges does this scenario present to leadership?  What new roles or professions exist in this scenario? Which existing ones have disappeared?  How would our strategy have to change for us to survive or thrive in this scenario? - Output: More fully developed scenario and more internalized “sense” of each alternative future
  15. 15. Copyright Cody Clark, Creative Commons License, 2011 Backcasting  Method of identifying intermediate future states from a longer-term future (or a preferable future vision)  Steps - Input: Given a scenario logic/description as input (e.g. from scenario generation exercise) - Accept the scenario as basis of exercise. (Not allowed to question the scenario) - Explore briefly the scenario using STEEP - Identify the prerequisite states needed to enable the scenario - Recursively identify the prerequisite states for each intermediate state, all the way back to present conditions - Good for “Gap” analysis between a vision and a current change framework. Input for strategic planning. - Output: A “path forward” and “vision network” for a given future

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