Prof. Dr. Niklas Höhne and Sebastian Sterl from NewClimate Insitute presented findings from the report "What does the Paris Agreement mean for climate policy in the Netherlands?" at the "Borgingscommissie Energieakkoord voor duurzame groei" in the Hague on the 28th March 2017. The report explores what need to be done by the Netherlands to be in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

1. What does the Paris Agreement mean
for climate policy in the Netherlands?
(Dutch title: Wat betekent het Parijsakkoord voor het Nederlandse
klimaatbeleid?)
Sebastian Sterl, Niklas Höhne, Takeshi Kuramochi
27 March 2017

2. What are the long-term goals
of the Paris Agreement?
What do the Paris Agreement
long-term goals mean for the
Netherlands?
Conclusions
28/03/2017 www.newclimate.org 2
Contents
https://newclimate.org/2016/10/13/what-does-the-paris-
agreement-mean-for-climate-policy-in-the-netherlands/

3. Temperature limit: keep global warming “well below 2°C above pre-
industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature
increase to 1.5°C”
Net zero emissions: global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs)
should decrease as fast as possible, such that they reach “net zero”
in the second half of the century.
28/03/2017 www.newclimate.org 3
The long-term goals of the Paris
Agreement

4. Illustrative 2°C scenario
www.newclimate.org 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
GlobalgreenhousegasemissionsinGtCO2e
CO2 from energy
use and industry
CO2 from forests
Non-CO2
Source: Marker scenario RCP 2.6 of IPCC, RCP scenario database
http://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at:8787/RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=download

5. What does the Paris Agreement mean for climate policy in the Netherlands?
Figure 2: The ranges (25th to 75th percentile and median) in which emissions (all GHGs or energy- and industry-
related CO2 emissions) would have to reach zero in order to be compatible with a 66% chance of limiting warming
to 2°C and a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C, respectively (Greenpeace & NewClimate Institute 2016;
based on Rogelj et al. 2015).
2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Energy- and industry-related
CO2 emissions
All GHG
Median25th percentile 75th percentile
Likely (66%)
chance of limiting
temperature rise
to < 2°C
Scenarios with
negative
emissions
CO2 budget without negativeemissions
Energy- and industry-related
CO2 emissions
All GHGMedium (50%)
chance of limiting
temperature rise
to < 1.5°C
Scenarios with
negative
emissions
CO2 budget without negativeemissions
Timing for zero global emissions
www.newclimate.org 5
Source: http://newclimate.org/2016/02/23/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-protection-in-germany/

6. What does the Paris Agreement mean for climate policy in the Netherlands?
Figure 2: The ranges (25th to 75th percentile and median) in which emissions (all GHGs or energy- and industry-
related CO2 emissions) would have to reach zero in order to be compatible with a 66% chance of limiting warming
to 2°C and a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C, respectively (Greenpeace & NewClimate Institute 2016;
based on Rogelj et al. 2015).
2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Energy- and industry-related
CO2 emissions
All GHG
Median25th percentile 75th percentile
Likely (66%)
chance of limiting
temperature rise
to < 2°C
Scenarios with
negative
emissions
CO2 budget without negativeemissions
Energy- and industry-related
CO2 emissions
All GHGMedium (50%)
chance of limiting
temperature rise
to < 1.5°C
Scenarios with
negative
emissions
CO2 budget without negativeemissions
Timing for zero global emissions
www.newclimate.org 6
Source: http://newclimate.org/2016/02/23/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-protection-in-germany/
*: Includes energy supply and use, industry, forestry and land use
*

7. What does the Paris Agreement mean for climate policy in the Netherlands?
Figure 2: The ranges (25th to 75th percentile and median) in which emissions (all GHGs or energy- and industry-
related CO2 emissions) would have to reach zero in order to be compatible with a 66% chance of limiting warming
to 2°C and a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C, respectively (Greenpeace & NewClimate Institute 2016;
based on Rogelj et al. 2015).
2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Energy- and industry-related
CO2 emissions
All GHG
Median25th percentile 75th percentile
Likely (66%)
chance of limiting
temperature rise
to < 2°C
Scenarios with
negative
emissions
CO2 budget without negativeemissions
Energy- and industry-related
CO2 emissions
All GHGMedium (50%)
chance of limiting
temperature rise
to < 1.5°C
Scenarios with
negative
emissions
CO2 budget without negativeemissions
Timing for zero global emissions
www.newclimate.org 7
Source: http://newclimate.org/2016/02/23/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-protection-in-germany/
*: Includes energy supply and use, industry, forestry and land use
*

8. What does the Paris Agreement mean for climate policy in the Netherlands?
Figure 2: The ranges (25th to 75th percentile and median) in which emissions (all GHGs or energy- and industry-
related CO2 emissions) would have to reach zero in order to be compatible with a 66% chance of limiting warming
to 2°C and a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C, respectively (Greenpeace & NewClimate Institute 2016;
based on Rogelj et al. 2015).
2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Energy- and industry-related
CO2 emissions
All GHG
Median25th percentile 75th percentile
Likely (66%)
chance of limiting
temperature rise
to < 2°C
Scenarios with
negative
emissions
CO2 budget without negativeemissions
Energy- and industry-related
CO2 emissions
All GHGMedium (50%)
chance of limiting
temperature rise
to < 1.5°C
Scenarios with
negative
emissions
CO2 budget without negativeemissions
Timing for zero global emissions
www.newclimate.org 8
Source: http://newclimate.org/2016/02/23/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-protection-in-germany/
*: Includes energy supply and use, industry, forestry and land use
*
Paris-compatible without
negative emissions
1.5°C Well
below
2°C
2°C

9. What does the Paris Agreement mean for climate policy in the Netherlands?
Figure 2: The ranges (25th to 75th percentile and median) in which emissions (all GHGs or energy- and industry-
related CO2 emissions) would have to reach zero in order to be compatible with a 66% chance of limiting warming
to 2°C and a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C, respectively (Greenpeace & NewClimate Institute 2016;
based on Rogelj et al. 2015).
2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Energy- and industry-related
CO2 emissions
All GHG
Median25th percentile 75th percentile
Likely (66%)
chance of limiting
temperature rise
to < 2°C
Scenarios with
negative
emissions
CO2 budget without negativeemissions
Energy- and industry-related
CO2 emissions
All GHGMedium (50%)
chance of limiting
temperature rise
to < 1.5°C
Scenarios with
negative
emissions
CO2 budget without negativeemissions
Timing for zero global emissions
www.newclimate.org 9
Source: http://newclimate.org/2016/02/23/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-protection-in-germany/
*: Includes energy supply and use, industry, forestry and land use
*
Paris-compatible without
negative emissions
1.5°C Well
below
2°C
Paris-compatible with
negative emissions1.5°C Well
below
2°C
2°C
2°C

10. Immediate action where possible can help to buy extra time for other
sectors
28/03/2017 www.newclimate.org 10
Other than linear reduction

11. What are the long-term goals
of the Paris Agreement?
What do the Paris
Agreement long-term goals
mean for the Netherlands?
Conclusions
28/03/2017 www.newclimate.org 11
Contents
https://newclimate.org/2016/10/13/what-does-the-paris-
agreement-mean-for-climate-policy-in-the-netherlands/

12. Netherlands:
Must be earlier than world
average (developed
country) (≈10 years)
Power sector:
Must be earlier than other
sectors (≈10 years)
Coal:
Must be earlier than rest of
power sector (≈5 years)
28/03/2017 www.newclimate.org 12
What does it mean for the
Netherlands? What does the Paris Agreement me
Figure 5: (a) According to the IEA WEO’s 450 scenario, emissions
reduced by 40% from current levels in 2040, but those from OECD
when extending the pathway up to the (median) point where global e
to the scenario in (Rogelj et al. 2015). (b) The same scenario shows th
should also be ahead by roughly 10 years of overall energy-related e
from coal for power generation by another 5 years.
2.2.3 Current ambition in context
The historical GHG emissions in the Netherlands between 19
While total GHG emissions had decreased by 10% in 2012 fro
reduction in non-CO2 emissions; energy- and industry-related C
1990 and 2012. Therefore, it is of particular importance for the
CO2 emissions to achieve the long-term goals of the Paris Agr
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
CO2emissionsfromfuelcombustion
(2013=100%)
Year
(a)
World 2°C
OECD 2°C
~10 years
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
201

13. “Current policy scenario” only limited reductions
Urgenda verdict (based on 2°C) is not in line with new goals
of Paris Agreement
28/03/2017 www.newclimate.org 13
Total emissions in the
Netherlands

14. 28/03/2017 www.newclimate.org 14
Pathways: energy sector

15. 28/03/2017 www.newclimate.org 15
Pathways: energy sectorFigure 7: Historical (ECN 2015) and projected (ECN 2015; Greenpeace International & EREC 2013; CPB & PBL
2015) share of renewables in electricity generation (left) and in final energy demand (right) in the Netherlands. (NEV
= Nationale Energieverkenning, see also Appendix).
Figure 8: Historical (ECN 2015) and projected (ECN 2015; Greenpeace International & EREC 2013) share of coal
in different scenarios for electricity generation in the Netherlands.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Shareofcoalinelectricitysupply(%)
Year
Share of coal in electricitygeneration
NL historical (NEV) NL current policies (NEV)
NL Energy [R]evolution Paris Agreement (with negative emissions)
Paris Agreement (w/o negative emissions)

16. 28/03/2017 www.newclimate.org 16
Pathways: transport sector

17. 28/03/2017 www.newclimate.org 17
Pathways: buildings sector

18. Sector Indicator
Compatible with the Paris
Agreement
Energy supply
Share of renewables in electricity supply 100% latest in 2025
Share of coal in electricity supply Zero latest in 2020
Share of renewables in total final energy demand 100% by 2025-2035
Transport
Share of EVs in LDV fleet 100% by 2025-2035
Share of EVs in new LDV sales 100% latest in 2025
Buildings
Share of households using gas as main heating
source
0% by 2025-2035
Industry Process emissions from industry Zero by 2025-2035
Agriculture
CO2 emissions from greenhouses Zero by 2025-2035
Non-CO2 emissions from agriculture Zero by 2080-2090
28/03/2017 www.newclimate.org 18
Results: Sectoral pathways

19. What are the long-term goals
of the Paris Agreement?
What do the Paris Agreement
long-term goals mean for the
Netherlands?
Conclusions
28/03/2017 www.newclimate.org 19
Contents
https://newclimate.org/2016/10/13/what-does-the-paris-
agreement-mean-for-climate-policy-in-the-netherlands/

20. The Paris Agreement sets a new level of ambition
Climate goals in the Netherlands need to be adapted to
be in line with new Paris goals
• By 2020
o Shutdown of all coal power plants
• By 2025
o 100% renewable electricity
o All new cars must be 100% EV
• By 2035
o No more houses heated by gas
o No gasoline and diesel cars on the road
o 100% renewable energy
o Radical changes in industry and greenhouse sector to achieve zero
emissions
28/03/2017
Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@newclimate.org
www.newclimate.org
20
Conclusions