International climate policy
From Warsaw to Paris
Ecofys webinar

30/01/2014
Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
International climate policy

The EU has saved the climate negotiations…

… but not yet the climate.

Photo: Leila Mead/II...
Timeline of the UN climate negotiations

1992 UNFCCC

1997 Kyoto
Protocol

2001 Rules of
the Kyoto
Protocol

Objective: “S...
Timeline of the UN climate negotiations

1992 UNFCCC

1997 Kyoto
Protocol

2001 Rules of
the Kyoto
Protocol

> Emission re...
Timeline of the UN climate negotiations
No Kyoto Protocol
First a treaty with all
1992 UNFCCC

1997 Kyoto
Protocol

2001 R...
Timeline of the UN climate negotiations

1997 Kyoto
Protocol

1992 UNFCCC

2007 Bali
Action Plan

2009
Copenhagen

2001 Ru...
Timeline of the UN climate negotiations
No Kyoto Protocol
First a treaty with all
1992 UNFCCC

2007 Bali
Action Plan

2009...
Timeline of the UN climate negotiations

1992 UNFCCC

2007 Bali
Action Plan

1997 Kyoto
Protocol

2009
Copenhagen

2001 Ru...
Climate negotiations over time

Emission reductions
> Agreement of limit global temperature increase to 2°C
> Emission red...
What could be in a 2015 agreement?

> Global goal, e.g. “phase out of global
greenhouse gas emissions by 2050”

> National...
International climate policy

The EU has saved the climate negotiations…

… but not yet the climate.

Photo: Leila Mead/II...
The emissions gap

www.climateactiontracker.org
12

© ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
EU

> 20% below 1990 in 2020
> 30% below 1990 if there is a global ambitious agreement

13

© ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Ni...
USA
> 17% below 2005
> Possible if new climate plan is really implemented

14

© ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n...
China
> Pledge: CO2/GDP 40-45% below 2005 by 2020, share of non-

fossil fuels of 15% by 2020, forest cover
> Policies: to...
National climate policy

Countries
responsible for 67%
of global emissions
have national
climate legislation or
strategy
S...
Climate Action Tracker

17

© ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
International climate policy

The EU has saved the climate negotiations…

… but not yet the climate.

Photo: Leila Mead/II...
Simple view

Complex view

UNFCCC
climate treaty

National government
action

Source: Draft
of IPCC Fifth
Assessment Repor...
20

54

52

56

2010
2015

Included in low ambition pledge
Included only in high ambition pledge
Additional to pledges

Am...
Wedging the gap: the Green Growth approach to global
action on climate change
Companies’ emissions

Energy efficiency

Spe...
Cooperative initiatives
> Energy efficiency with significant potential, up to 2 GtCO2e by 2020. It is
already covered by a...
Interntional climate policy

The EU has saved the climate negotiations…

… but not yet the climate.

Photo: Leila Mead/IIS...
Thank you for your attention!
Ecofys Germany GmbH
Dr. Niklas Höhne
Am Wassermann 36
50829 Cologne
Germany

T: +49 (0)221 2...
Stabilization of the climate

Source: IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001
25

© ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@e...
Historical emissions
7

Emissions in Tg CO2eq.

3

Annex I

x 10

N2O
CH4
Forestry CO2
Fossil CO2

2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1900
...
Future emissions

27

© ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
The challenges of 2°C with current pledges
1996 - EU agrees on 2°C limit, which meant
- Ambitious but realistic reduction ...
Decisions in Warsaw on the timing of commitments
> “… initiate or intensify domestic preparations for their intended

nati...
Decision in Warsaw on pre-2020 ambition
> “Intensifying, as from 2014, the technical examination of opportunities for
acti...
Possible processes to determine commitments
Equity Reference
Framework
(optional)

Proposals
Review
of aggregated
proposal...
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International Climate Policy – From Warsaw to Paris

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This webinar will review some expectations for a new international agreement on climate change that is to be agreed in Paris in December 2015. After a short introduction to the international climate negotiations so far, the presentation will introduce to possible elements of such a new agreement and the process towards agreeing on it.

Published in: Technology

International Climate Policy – From Warsaw to Paris

  1. 1. International climate policy From Warsaw to Paris Ecofys webinar 30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
  2. 2. International climate policy The EU has saved the climate negotiations… … but not yet the climate. Photo: Leila Mead/IISD Global GHG emissions (GtCO2e/a) 56 Business as usual 56 GtCO2e Confirmed national reduction proposals 55 GtCO2e 54 52 Ambitious end of national reduction proposals 50 GtCO2e We need an emergency plan! 50 48 46 44 2010 2 2015 2020 © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
  3. 3. Timeline of the UN climate negotiations 1992 UNFCCC 1997 Kyoto Protocol 2001 Rules of the Kyoto Protocol Objective: “Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” Principle: “The Parties should protect the climate system on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Accordingly, the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof.” 3 © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
  4. 4. Timeline of the UN climate negotiations 1992 UNFCCC 1997 Kyoto Protocol 2001 Rules of the Kyoto Protocol > Emission reduction targets for developed countries (in aggregate 5% below 1990 in 2008 to 2012) > Flexibility in reaching targets  International emission trading / joint implementation  Clean Development Mechanism (offset projects) 4 © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
  5. 5. Timeline of the UN climate negotiations No Kyoto Protocol First a treaty with all 1992 UNFCCC 1997 Kyoto Protocol 2001 Rules of the Kyoto Protocol First Kyoto Protocol Then treaty with all countries 5 © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com countries
  6. 6. Timeline of the UN climate negotiations 1997 Kyoto Protocol 1992 UNFCCC 2007 Bali Action Plan 2009 Copenhagen 2001 Rules of the Kyoto Protocol 2011 Cancun Agreements 2012 Durban platform 2015 New agreement Kyoto Protocol track UNFCCC track Durban Platform > Copenhagen Accord agreed – falling short of expectations > But  All countries agreed that global temperature increase should be limited to 2°C  All major emitters proposed emission reduction targets for 2020 6 © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 2020
  7. 7. Timeline of the UN climate negotiations No Kyoto Protocol First a treaty with all 1992 UNFCCC 2007 Bali Action Plan 2009 Copenhagen countries 2001 Rules of the Kyoto Protocol 1997 Kyoto Protocol 2010 Cancun Agreements 2012 Durban platform 2015 New agreement 2020 Kyoto Protocol track UNFCCC track First Kyoto Protocol Then treaty with all countries Durban Platform Ok, Kyoto Protocol only for the EU, but only with a date for a treaty with all countries 7 © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
  8. 8. Timeline of the UN climate negotiations 1992 UNFCCC 2007 Bali Action Plan 1997 Kyoto Protocol 2009 Copenhagen 2001 Rules of the Kyoto Protocol 2010 Cancun Agreements 2011 Durban platform 2015 New agreement Kyoto Protocol track UNFCCC track Durban Platform Photo: Flickr/UNFCCC 8 © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 2020
  9. 9. Climate negotiations over time Emission reductions > Agreement of limit global temperature increase to 2°C > Emission reduction proposals for all major countries for 2020 > Kyoto Protocol with moderate targets until 2020 and limited participation Financing > From 10 billion US$ (2010/11/12) to 100 billion US$ per year (2020) > Green Climate Fund as new financing channel > New forms of cooperation, e.g. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs), forestry (REDD+) Reporting > Biennial reporting of emissions and policies 9 © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
  10. 10. What could be in a 2015 agreement? > Global goal, e.g. “phase out of global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050” > National emissions reduction commitments Proposal: Commitment and equity principle > Commitments on financial contributions Technical review and questions > Measures and goals for adaptation A possible proposal: Haites et al. 2013 http://www.iddri.org/Publications/Collections/Idees-pour-ledebat/WP1613_EH%20FY%20NH_legal%20agreement%202015.pdf No Sufficient? Yes Yes Final 2020-23 Commitment More ambitious 2024-27 commitment 10 © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
  11. 11. International climate policy The EU has saved the climate negotiations… … but not yet the climate. Photo: Leila Mead/IISD Global GHG emissions (GtCO2e/a) 56 Business as usual 56 GtCO2e Confirmed national reduction proposals 55 GtCO2e 54 52 Ambitious end of national reduction proposals 50 GtCO2e We need an emergency plan! 50 48 46 44 2010 11 2015 2020 © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
  12. 12. The emissions gap www.climateactiontracker.org 12 © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
  13. 13. EU > 20% below 1990 in 2020 > 30% below 1990 if there is a global ambitious agreement 13 © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
  14. 14. USA > 17% below 2005 > Possible if new climate plan is really implemented 14 © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
  15. 15. China > Pledge: CO2/GDP 40-45% below 2005 by 2020, share of non- fossil fuels of 15% by 2020, forest cover > Policies: top 10 000 company programme, support for renewables, low carbon zones, emission trading systems, efficiency standards for cars and trucks, regional ban of new coal fired power plants, … 15 © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
  16. 16. National climate policy Countries responsible for 67% of global emissions have national climate legislation or strategy Source: Dubash et al. 2013 http://dx.doi.org/10.1 080/14693062.2013. 845409 16 © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
  17. 17. Climate Action Tracker 17 © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
  18. 18. International climate policy The EU has saved the climate negotiations… … but not yet the climate. Photo: Leila Mead/IISD Global GHG emissions (GtCO2e/a) 56 Business as usual 56 GtCO2e Confirmed national reduction proposals 55 GtCO2e 54 52 Ambitious end of national reduction proposals 50 GtCO2e We need an emergency plan! 50 48 46 44 2010 18 2015 2020 © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
  19. 19. Simple view Complex view UNFCCC climate treaty National government action Source: Draft of IPCC Fifth Assessment Report 19 © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
  20. 20. 20 54 52 56 2010 2015 Included in low ambition pledge Included only in high ambition pledge Additional to pledges Ambitious end of national reduction proposals 50 GtCO2e 52 50 50 48 48 46 46 44 44 2020 Blok et al 2012: Bridging the greenhouse gas gap, Nature Climate Change http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n7/full /nclimate1602.html © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 2° C range Global GHG emissions (GtCO2e/a) Business as usual 56 GtCO2e Confirmed national reduction proposals 55 GtCO2e Top-1000 companies emission reduction Supply chain emission reductions Green financial institutions Voluntary offset companies Voluntary offset consumers Major cities initiative Sub-national governments Building heating and cooling Ban of incandescent lamps Electric appliances Cars & trucks emission reduction Boost solar photovoltaic energy Boost wind energy Access to energy through low-emission options Phasing out subsidies for fossil fuels International aviation and maritime transport Fluorinated gases initiative Reduce deforestation Agriculture Short lived climate forcers Efficient cookstoves Global GHG emissions (GtCO2e/a) Wedging the gap: the Green Growth approach to global action on climate change 56 54
  21. 21. Wedging the gap: the Green Growth approach to global action on climate change Companies’ emissions Energy efficiency Special sectors Top-1000 companies emission reduction Buildings heating and cooling Intl. aviation and maritime transport Supply chain emission reductions Ban of incandescent lamps Fluorinated gases initiative Green financial institutions Electric appliances Reduce deforestation Voluntary offset companies Cars and trucks emission reductions Agriculture Other actors Energy supply Voluntary offsets consumers Boost solar photovoltaic energy Major cities initiative Boost wind energy Sub-national governments Access energy through low emission options Phasing out subsidies for fossil fuels 21 © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com Methane and other air pollutants Methane and other air pollutants Efficient cook stoves Blok et al 2012: Bridging the greenhouse gas gap, Nature Climate Change http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n7/full /nclimate1602.html
  22. 22. Cooperative initiatives > Energy efficiency with significant potential, up to 2 GtCO2e by 2020. It is already covered by a substantial number of initiatives. Focus and coherency is needed. > Fossil-fuel subsidy reform with varying estimates of the reduction potential: 0.4–2 GtCO2e by 2020. The number of initiatives and clear commitments in this area is limited. > Methane and other short-lived climate pollutants as a mix of several sources. Reducing methane emissions from fossil-fuel production has received particular attention in the literature. This area is covered by several specific initiatives and one that is overarching. > Renewable energy with particularly large potential: 1–3 GtCO2e by 2020. Several initiatives have been started in this area. Focus and coherency is needed. Quelle: UNEP emissions gap report http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/emissionsgapreport2013/ 22 © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
  23. 23. Interntional climate policy The EU has saved the climate negotiations… … but not yet the climate. Photo: Leila Mead/IISD Global GHG emissions (GtCO2e/a) 56 Business as usual 56 GtCO2e Confirmed national reduction proposals 55 GtCO2e 54 52 Ambitious end of national reduction proposals 50 GtCO2e We need an emergency plan! 50 48 46 44 2010 23 2015 2020 © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
  24. 24. Thank you for your attention! Ecofys Germany GmbH Dr. Niklas Höhne Am Wassermann 36 50829 Cologne Germany T: +49 (0)221 27070-101 E: n.hoehne@ecofys.com I: www.ecofys.com 24 © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
  25. 25. Stabilization of the climate Source: IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001 25 © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
  26. 26. Historical emissions 7 Emissions in Tg CO2eq. 3 Annex I x 10 N2O CH4 Forestry CO2 Fossil CO2 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 7 Emissions in Tg CO2eq. 3 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Non-Annex I x 10 N2O CH4 Forestry CO2 Fossil CO2 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1900 26 1950 Year 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 Year © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
  27. 27. Future emissions 27 © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
  28. 28. The challenges of 2°C with current pledges 1996 - EU agrees on 2°C limit, which meant - Ambitious but realistic reduction rates - Delayed participation of developing countries possible - Choice of technology possible - Opportunities for innovation and energy security Future emissions given pledges 60 Global GHG emissions (GtCO2e) 50 - Historical emissions 2012 - Today: 2°C limit means - Last chance, action before 2020 necessary - Instantaneous change by all actors Opportunities for innovation and energy security - Unprecedented reduction rates necessary 2020 – planned entry into force of new climate agreement: 2°C limit means - High probability that 2°C limit is missed - Instantaneous change by all actors - Unprecedented reduction rates necessary - All technologies necessary - Shutdown of equipment before its end of life 40 30 20 10 0 1990 28 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Year © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
  29. 29. Decisions in Warsaw on the timing of commitments > “… initiate or intensify domestic preparations for their intended nationally determined contributions… and to communicate them well in advance of [COP21 (2015)] (by the first quarter of 2015 by those Parties ready to do so)” > “identify, by [COP20 (2014)] the information that Parties will provide when putting forward their contributions” 29 © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
  30. 30. Decision in Warsaw on pre-2020 ambition > “Intensifying, as from 2014, the technical examination of opportunities for actions with high mitigation potential, … with a view to promoting voluntary cooperation … > … sharing … of experiences and best practices of cities and subnational authorities…” 30 © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
  31. 31. Possible processes to determine commitments Equity Reference Framework (optional) Proposals Review of aggregated proposals Individual review Sufficient? No Yes Sufficient? Negotiations Yes Agreed? No Yes Fixing in agreement Ratchet up (optional) 31 © ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com No

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