Frauke Röser from NewClimate Insitute presented at GIZ headquarters during COP 23.The event discussed NDC implementation by focusing on one of the main challenges: Alignment and coherence of sector policies and approaches with the national climate target and climate policies.
NDC Implementation – bridging the gap from climate change policy to sector approaches - COP 23
1. COP23 Side Event, GIZ Headquarter Bonn
Frauke Roeser
13 November 2017
NDC Implementation – bridging
the gap from climate change
policy to sector plans
2. Framing questions
Where do we stand globally on 2°C?
What has been NDC progress to date?
How fit are the sectors to implement the
ambition cycle?
What needs to be happen in the sectors?
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3. Global assessment
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Global emissions and temperature update Wed, 15 Nov, 12:30 press conference at COP23
Source: Climate Action Tracker
5. NDC Update Report
Biannual reports ahead of COP
and Bonn sessions
Under IKI funded “Ambition to
Action” project in cooperation with
ECN
Focus on mitigation ambition and
progress “on the ground”
“Are we making progress
domestically?”
How can this best be supported?
Platform for learning, sharing
insights and discussion
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6. NDC Survey
Respondents from 52 developing
countries /emerging economies
National level and sector level experts and
practitioners
Perceived progress and confidence on
several NDC related issues
Overall: continued confidence and
optimism regarding NDC
implementation progress
National level: confident and optimistic
Sector level: more critical and reserved
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7. Sector alignment of NDCs
National level: 55% believe country is
making very good/ good progress on
aligning sector development plans with NDCs
Sector level experts less confident –
majority identify sector alignment as key
challenge
Support
Access to finance thought to be a big challenge in
particular at sectoral level (63% compared to 48% at
national level )
When international funds are secured for domestic
NDC implementation, they do not seem to be
effectively tailored to countries’ needs (only 17% say
they are)
67% believe that technical support received is not
adequate
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8. NDC and transformation fitness
Existing assessments of NDCs
tend to focus on analysis of
countries’ targets and self-
reported emissions and policy data
No information about the
likelihood that a country or sector
will be able to achieve its targets
8
Room for a new complementary
diagnosis to assess ’fitness’ to
achieve NDC targets and/ or sector
decarbonisation
9. Conclusions
NDC cycle needs to be sector driven
Confidence on NDC implementation but what
about the ambition cycle?
There seems to be a misalignment of climate
policy ambitions and sector planning/ action
Need to achieve sector ownership and policy
coherence
Better understanding and evidence regarding
impacts of different pathways needed
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10. Short-term steps to peak and start the
emissions decline
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11. Thank you for your attention!
Contact details:
Frauke Roeser
M +49 (0)151 68409310
E f.roeser@newclimate.org
13. Long-term strategies
Confusion about long-term strategies
35% believe they have already adopted long-term low emission development
strategies and/ or included them in policy or national legislation
13
14. CAT also does analysis on how the gap can be filled
www.climateactiontracker.org
Zero emission vehicles need to take over car
market
Constructing the future: creating a Paris
Agreement-proof building sector
China light duty vehicle emissions
(MtCO2e/year)
Per capita building sector
emissions (tCO2/capita)
Editor's Notes
Other activities of the Climate Action Tracker explain how the emissions gap can be filled
For example, through the decarbonisation memo series funded by the ClimateWorks Foundation, the CAT is producing a series of concise 4-page memos focusing on sectoral decarbonisation
We produced one of these for transport and one for buildings, for example, where for both sectors we tried to answer the question: For this sector, where does the world need to be for 1.5C/2C and what can we concretely do in the sector to get there?
Vehicle graph: fuel economy improvements are not enough to be on a 2°C compatible pathway; electric vehicles also need to be rolled out extensively by 2050, here the example for China, but the picture is similar for other countries
Buildings graph: more needs to be done in the buildings sector to be on a 2°C pathway. The key measures to move towards this trajectory are ensuring that new buildings are near zero energy buildings and ramping up retrofit rates.
The memos are based on data from our decarbonisation portal, which tracks over 40 different decarbonisation indicators for over 30 countries and is available for all to acess freely
More info in case of questions
The first graph is taken from a memo which looks at the transformations needed in the car market to meet the 2°C limit. The graph shows the historical development of light duty vehicle (LDV) emissions in China, as well as projected developments under no new policies, and two scenario possibilities. Scenario 1 considers the impact of doubling the fuel economy by 2030 on emissions and scenario 2 takes this one step further by also assuming that the share of electric vehicles in the LDV fleet is 50%. The 2°C compatible pathway is also shown on the graph in orange. Scenario 2 is consistent with the 2°C pathway.
To go from a 2°C to a 1.5°C pathway, the timeline for phasing out ICE vehicles must be moved forwards, and the CAT estimated that the last gasoline/diesel car would have to be sold by roughly 2035.
Another memo looked at decarbonisation of the buildings sector. The graph shows the buildings emissions per capita for five selected major regions and countries against the 2°C pathway. The USA has by far the highest building carbon intensity per capita, but at the same time the largest absolute carbon intensity reductions in recent years, largely due to improved efficiency for appliances and better building envelopes. Further reductions are required to limit warming to 2°C, let alone 1.5°C.