Niklas Höhne from NewClimate Institute presents at the 19th Annual Chatham House Climate Change Conference on Climate Change 2015: Building Agreement Towards 2°C, Paris and Beyond.

1. Measuring progress and
completing the deal
Climate Change 2015: Building Agreement Towards 2°C, Paris and Beyond
Monday 26 and Tuesday 27 October 2015, Chatham House, London
Niklas Höhne
n.hoehne@newclimate.org

2. Source: http://files.newclimate.org/indc-preparation-progress/, NewClimate Institute survey for UNFCCC and UNDP
New survey in progress: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/INDC-experiences for GIZ
Unprecedented engagement
of countries
 119 submissions (2 October)
o representing 147 Parties; and
o over 85% of total global GHG emissions
 Before Paris: 92% of emissions coverage expected
2

3. INDCs move emissions and
temperature but not enough
Source: Climate Action Tracker, 1 October 2015,
http://climateactiontracker.org/assets/publications/CAT_global_temperature_update_October_2015.pdf
Summ
National
synthesi
of 11am
with the
promise
announc
2030 are
reflectin
where o
available
result fr
about 0.
There is still a large emissions g
For 1.5°C the 2025 gap is
improvement in the level of mit
With current INDCs, the emissio
There is a major risk that if cu
strengthened every five years, s
by all the most vulnerable coun
fundamentally threatened.
Of the 19 INDCs rated by the
been rated as “sufficient.” Inst
“medium,” and eight, which c
sufficient but cover only 0.4% o
information.
3

4. INDC process has catalysed
national climate policy making
4
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
A wide range of non-governmental stakeholders are
consulted for climate change policy planning
Major line ministries communicate witheachother
regularly on climate change issues
All of the available options for climate change
mitigationinthe country are well understood
Climate change mitigationhas high priority on the
political agenda
Finance and support needs to respond to climate
change challenges are understood
Available options for accessing international finance
and technical support are well understood
All major line ministries have a strong
understanding of climate change issues
Agree or stronglyagree
Before
After
Survey in progress https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/INDC-experiences for GIZ
Ongoing survey, currently 70 responses

5. Backup slides
5

6. Close to 2°C, if all countries would
do what many do already
Source: Fekete, Roelfsema, Höhne, den Elzen, Forsell, Becerra 2015: Impacts of good practice policies on regional and global greenhouse gas
emissions, https://newclimateinstitute.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/task2c_goodpracticeanalysis_july_2015.pdf
Figure 1. Global greenhouse gas emissions under current policies scenario and implementation of
good practice policies in all countries excl. LULUCF and only LULUCF. Note: emissions in 2010 are
48.8 GtCO2e, and thus slightly lower than other sources (e.g. (UNEP, 2014)).
Figure 2: Reductions below the implemented policies for each of the nine policy areas covered, based
on two methods from NewClimate Institute and PBL. Source: Authors
All the results above are based on the assumption that the good practice policies can be technically
implemented on a global level. We have not considered country specific circumstances beyond energy
and emission data, and sometimes projections of activities. In our calculations, we did not take into
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
NewClimateInstitute PBL
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GtCO2e/a
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Promotion of electric vehicles
Efficiency standards for light duty vehicles
Efficiency standards for the building
envelope
Reduction of f-gases
Promotion of energy efficiency in industry
Targets for methane reduction from oil and
gas production
Reducing electricity demand from industry
and buildings
Support for renewable electricity
Current policies (excl. LULUCF)
Reductions if all countries would apply best practice policies in selected areas

7. INDC process has catalysed
national climate policy making
• Consolidated and accelerated climate change policy processes
• Mainstreaming climate into other policy making processes
• From planning to implementation
• Enhanced stakeholder engagement
• Improved data and information management
• Enhanced south south cooperation
7
“Enhanced engagement of stakeholders in climate change planning”
“Acceleration of national climate change policy process”
“Improved national processes”
“Improved domestic communication between government, CSO and public”
http://newclimate.org/2015/08/31/overcoming-the-challenges-of-indc-preparation-experiences-and-lessons-learned-2/

8. USA
2020: 17% below 2005
2025: 26% to 28% below 2005
Source: www.climateactiontracker.org

9. EU
20% below 1990 in 2020
30% below 1990 in 2020 with ambitious international treaty
40% below 1990 in 2030
Source: www.climateactiontracker.org

10. China
2020: CO2/GDP 40-45% below 2005, 15% non-fossil energy, afforestation
2030: target to peak CO2 emissions at the latest, CO2/GDP by 60% to 65% below 2005,
20% non-fossil energy afforestation
Source: www.climateactiontracker.org

11. Japan
11
2030: 26% below 2013 emission levels
Source: www.climateactiontracker.org