2. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
2
GHG emissions growth has accelerated
despite reduction efforts.
3. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been
larger than in the previous three decades.
3
Based on Figure 1.3
4. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Estimates for mitigation costs show moderate
effect on development
Reaching 450ppm CO2eq entails consumption losses of 1.7% (1%-4%)
by 2030, 3.4% (2% to 6%) by 2050 and 4.8% (3%-11%) by 2100 relative
to baseline (which grows between 300% to 900% over the course of the
century).
This is equivalent to a reduction in consumption growth over the 21st
century by about 0.06 (0.04-0.14) percentage points a year (relative to
annualized consumption growth that is between 1.6% and 3% per year).
Cost estimates exlude benefits of mitigation (reduced impacts from
climate change). They also exclude other benefits (e.g. improvements
for local air quality).
5. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
The elements of the solution:
Focus on energy end-use and cities
6. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Responsibility and
opportunity:
A substantial share of
emission increase in the
next few decades will
come from cities
Urban areas generate 80% of GDP and 71% - 76% of CO2 emissions from
global energy use
Each week the urban population increases by 1.3 million
This enormous expected increase poses both an opportunity and
responsibility
Cities/municipalities can often take stronger leadership in strong climate
action than nation states due to higher degrees of flexibility, larger room
for individual leadership
today 2035
7. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
A broad array of opportunities exist to keep urban emissions at bay
while maintaining or increasing well-being
Urban design and form
Energy-efficient transport systems
Mobility services; e-transactions replacing physical mobility (e-banking, teleconferencing, e-
government, etc)
Encouraging non-motorized and public transport
Efficient, small vehicles
Shared urban mobility schemes
Energy efficient buildings
low-energy architecture
High-efficiency appliances, lighting and equipment
High performance operation of buildings (mainly commercial)
Fuel switch to low-carbon energy sources (RES) or high-efficiency
equipment using energy contributing to CC
Electric vehicles
Lowering embodied energy in the built infrastructure and products –
affordable low-carbon, durable construction materials
Towards the circular economy: reuse and sharing economy
Carbon storage in construction materials?
Lifestyle, behavior, culture
8. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Infrastructure and urban form are strongly
linked and lock‐in patterns of land use,
transport and housing use, and behavior
9. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Urban planning
can make a very
significant
difference in
urban emissions
9
Source: UN 2014 as cited by
Fischedick, CFCC 2015
10. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Mitigation opportunities through urban
planning:
1. increasing accessibility
2. increasing connectivity
3. increasing land use mix
4. increasing transit options
5. increasing and co-locating employment and
residential densities
6. increasing green space and other carbon sinks
7. Increasing white and light-colored surfaces
11. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
The elements of the solution:
buildings
12. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
13. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
RHW.2 Tower Raiffeisen-Holding NÖ-Vienna office
World’s first Passive high-rise office building
Architects DI Dieter Hayde and DI Ernst Maurer
High-rise benchmarks energy consumption in kWh/m²a
140
95
14
170
80
8
125
55
39 78
135
82
56
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Conventionel
US skyscraper
Conventional
AT skyscraper
RHW.2
skyscraper
RHW.2
skyscraper
User
Building equipment
Cooling
Heating
312 kWh/m²a
570 kWh/m²a
Renewable energy
bio gas + geothermie
- 80%
117 kWh/m²a
14. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
15. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Geschosswohnungsbau Passivhaus Altbausanierung in Graz / Steiermark
Bauträger: GIWOG Generalunternehmer: GAP-Solution GmbH
135
5
0
50
100
150
Vor Sanierung Nach Sanierung
HeizwärmebedarfkWh/(m²a)
- 96%
16. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
17. First retrofit to
Passive House Plus
Office building Technical University Vienna
Architect: Arch. DI Gerhard Kratochwil
Building physics: Schöberl & Pöll GmbH
Owner: BIG Bundesimmobilien gesmbH
Treated floor area: 7,322 m2 = 80,000 ft²
Heating demand: 14 kWh/m2a = 4.4 kBTU/ft²a
Heat load: 9 W/m² = 2.85 BTU/ft²
Primary energy: 56 kWh/m²a = 17.75 kBTU/ft²a
56 61
0
200
400
600
800
Before
retrofit
After retrofit Renewable
Energy
803
PrimaryEnergykWh/(m²a)
- 94%
18. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Gründerzeitwohnhaus Mariahilfer Straße, 1150 Wien
Generalsanierung und Aufstockung schweren Gasexplosion
Architektur Trimmel Wall Architekten ZTGmbH Bauphysik Schöberl & Pöll GmbH
135
22
3
0
50
100
150
Before
retrofit
After
retrofit
Solar
Energy
HeatEnergykWh/(m²a)
- 85%
19. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
At www.passivhausprojekte.de
documented Passive houses:
Documented Treated Floor Area
of Passive houses
from 46 Nations
without Germany and Austria
per end of April 2017
20. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
21. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
1,280,000 m²
22. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
0
50
100
150
200
250
Stávající zástavba Pasivní dům
celkováenergie[kWh/m
2
a]
Domácí spotřebiče
Vzduchotechnika
Ohřev TUV
Vytápění
- 90%
- 75%
23. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Total burden of disease from indoor
exposures in European countries
as DALY/million population with division to indoor and outdoor
sources in the 2010 building stock
Source: Otto Hänninen and Arja Asikainen (Eds.) 2013. Efficient reduction of indoor
exposures Health benefits from optimizing ventilation, filtration and indoor source controls
24. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Attributable burden of diseases due to
indoor exposures in 2010 in EU26
The lighter shade represents the maximum reducible fraction through
well operated ventilation systems in high-efficiency buildings
Source: Otto Hänninen and Arja Asikainen (Eds.) 2013. Efficient reduction of indoor
exposures Health benefits from optimizing ventilation, filtration and indoor source controls
25. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Brock Commons: 19-story timber
building
26. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Brock Commons Carbon Impact
Source:
Naturallywood
27. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
The elements of the solution:
Mobility
28. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
URBAN MOBILITY INNOVATIONS OF THE
DIGITAL ERA: THE ROLE OF DIGITALLY
OPTIMISED SHARED MOBILITY SERVICES
Based on the study of the OECD’s International Transport
Forum
Thought experiment: what if all car and bus trips in a city
are provided through fleets of shared vehicles
based on high-resolution real mobility and network data
from a mid-size European city, namely Lisbon
shared mobility is delivered by a fleet of six-seat vehicles
(“Shared Taxis”) offering on-demand, door-to-door shared
rides in conjunction with a fleet of 8 and 16 seat mini-buses
28
29. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
findings: a completely transformed city
Congestion completely disappears
traffic emissions reduced by one third
95% less space was required for public parking
The vehicle fleet needed is only 3% in size of today's fleet
total vehicle-kilometres would be 37% less even during peak hours
Higher vehicle use-> shorter vehicle life cycles -> faster uptake of
newer, cleaner technologies
more rapid reduction of CO2 emissions from urban mobility
29
30. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
How else citizens gain from such a
digitally enabled urban mobility future
No productivity losses due to congestion; commute time can be utilized instead of
driving
All trips are door-to-door; almost all trips are direct, without need for transfer
Mobility is much cheaper: prices for journeys in the city could be 50% or less of today
without subsidy
Significant amounts of space previously dedicated to parking can be converted to
uses that increase livability, from public parks to broader sidewalks, and more and
better bicycle lanes
Particularly striking is how a shared mobility system improves access and social
inclusion. In the simulation, inequalities in access to employment, education or health
services across the city virtually disappeared
Air pollution is significantly reduced even without any vehicle or fuel change
Possible to reduce individual automobile ownership (reducing costs to households)
and parking infrastructure needs around the home (potential for shared ownership
that is spreading in several European cities)
30
31. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Source:
McKinsey:
“urban mobility
at a tipping
point”, 2016
31/05/2018 31
32. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Summary
Municipalities/cities can play a major role in
strong climate action
Urban planning and green infrastructure
High-efficiency or energy plus buildings and
retrofits
Construction from low-carbon building materials
(e.g. timber)
Shared urban mobility schemes
For many projects the co-benefits may exceed
the climate benefits
33. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Emission
inventories
The Physical
Science Basis
The Synthesis
Report
Climate Change
Impacts,
Adaptation and
Vulnerability
Mitigation
of
Climate Change
April 2021 April 2022October 2021
July 2021
Global
warming of
1.5 o
C
Oct. 2018 Sept. 2019
Aug. 2019
Land
Oceans
and cryosphere
IPCC Sixth Assessment (AR6)
Cities and Climate Change Science ConferenceMarch 2018
May 2018 Expert Meeting on Short Lived Climate Forcers
May 2018 Expert Meeting on Assessing Climate Information for Regions
Talanoa
dialogue
UNFCCC
Global
stocktake
2023
UNFCCC
Some overarching preliminary aspects for the Synthesis Report
• Global Stocktake
• Interaction among emissions, climate, risks and development pathways
• Economic and social costs and benefits of mitigation and adaptation in the context
of development pathways
• Adaptation and mitigation actions in the context of sustainable development
• Finance and means of support
May 2019
* Dates are subject to change
34. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
www.citiesipcc.org
35. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Thank you for your attention
Ürge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change
and Sustainable Energy
Policy (3CSEP)
CEU, and
Working Group III
IPCC
Ipcc.ch
Email:
vorsatzd@ceu.edu
With permission from HVG
They keep promising this global warming, they
keep promising, but you will see that they will not
keep this promise of theirs either!
36. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Supplementary slides
37. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Outline of AR5 WG-III Report
1 Introductory Chapter
2
Integrated Risk and
Uncertainty Assessment of
Climate Change Response
Policies
3
Social, Economic and Ethical
Concepts and Methods
4
Sustainable Development and
Equity
5 Drivers, Trends and Mitigation
6
Assessing Transformation
Pathways
7 Energy Systems
8 Transport
9 Buildings
10 Industry
11
Agriculture, Forestry and
Other Land Use (AFOLU)
12
Human Settlements,
Infrastructure and Spatial
Planning
13
International Cooperation:
Agreements and Instruments
14
Regional Development and
Cooperation
15
National and Sub-National
Policies and Institutions
16
Cross-cutting Investment and
Finance Issues
38. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Increased efficiency has been a very
powerful tool to keep emission and
energy demand increases at bay for
decades
39. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Percapitaresidentialandcommercial
energyuse,1990-2010
40. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Thelock-inrisk:heatingandcooling
energydemandbytwoscenarios
41. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Urban infrastructure development can
consume all of our remaining carbon budget to
a 1.5C target?
Source:Bai,X.etal.SixResearch
PrioritiesforCitiesandClimate
Change.Nature,Mar1,2018.
42. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Total CO2 emissions (per capita) needed
to build up today’s infrastructure
Infrastructure build-up over the next few decades will
result in significant emissions
43. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Future CO2 emissions if developing
countries catch up to average developed
country level.
Infrastructure build-up over the next few decades will
result in significant emissions
44. There are several mitigation options
that can also contribute towards
development goals
“Overall, the potential for co‐benefits for energy
end‐use measures outweigh the potential
for adverse side‐effects, whereas the evidence
suggests this may not be the case for all energy
supply and AFOLU measures.” (SPM 4.1)
45. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Developments since AR5: global emissions have been level
for 3 years despite GDP growth (IEA)
46. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Accounting for indirect emissions has
key implications on mitigation strategy!
47. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Source: Figure TS.15
Baseline Scenarios: Direct vs. Indirect Emission Accounting
Source: Volker Krey, using IPCC AR5 Figure SPM.10, TS.15
48. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
A substantial share of
emission increase in the
next few decades will
come from cities
Urban areas generate 80% of GDP and 71% - 76% of CO2 emissions from
global energy use
Each week the urban population increases by 1.3 million
By 2050 urban population is to increase by up to 3 billion
Over 70% of global building energy use increase will take place in
developing country cities
This enormous expected increase poses both an opportunity and
responsibility
today 2035
49. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
IPCC AR5: Substantial reductions in emissions will
require large changes in investment patterns
49
Based on Figure 16.3
50. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Increasing and co-locating residential and employment
densities can lower emissions
Higher density
leads to less
emissions
(i.a. shorter
distances
travelled).
51. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Increasing urban density is a necessary but not sufficient
condition for lowering urban emissions
Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, courtesy of Karen Seto
52. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Increasing land use mix can significantly reduce emissions
Mix of land-use
reduces
emissions.
Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
53. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Increasing connectivity can enable multiple modes of transport
Improved
infrastructural
density and
design (e.g.
streets) reduces
emissions.
Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
54. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Co-location of activities reduces direct and indirect GHG
emissions
Accessibility to
people and
places (jobs,
housing,
services,
shopping)
reduces
emissions.
Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
55. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
To lower urban emissions, need diverse urban land use
mix
Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
56. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Sweden UK
Belgium Bulgaria Denmark Germany Austria
Estonia Finland France Greece
Ireland Italy Latvia Lithunia Croatia
Czech Rep. Hungaria Luxembourg Netherlands Poland
Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Cyprus
60,000 Passive Houses exist in
28 European member countries
57. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Gründerzeitbau 1020 Wien, Eberlgasse
Bauherr: Andreas Kronberger Unternehmensberatung
Bauphysik: Schöberl & Pöll GmbH
178
15 2
0
50
100
150
200
Before
retrofit
After
retrofit
Solar
Energy
HeatEnergykWh/(m²a)
- 92%
58. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Passsive houses spread around the world
Based on draft UNEP Emissions Gap Report, contributed by PHI
59. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
www.heidelberg-bahnstadt.de
World’s largest Passive House city district
Zero-Emission-City areal Heidelberg-Bahnstadt
116 ha, 1,700 flats
Passive House as Standard for urban development
60. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
How mitigation options can go hand-in-
hand with development goals (co-
benefits)
Air quality improvement – indoor and outdoor
Health – e.g. through indoor and outdoor air quality improvement,
reduced thermal stress, increased activity
Energy security
Efficiency increases access to energy services
fuel poverty could be eliminated
Better employment and economic opportunities through accessivity
Reduced congestion
Others: biodiversity conservation, water availability, food security,
income distribution, improved productivity, efficiency of the taxation
system, labour supply and employment, urban sprawl, and the
sustainability of the growth of developing countries
61. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
TreEhugger daydream…?
31/05/2018 61
62. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
Private
investment
into mobility
services is
skyrocketing
62
Title of presentation, date, text
SOURCE: MCKINSEY:
“URBAN MOBILITY AT A
TIPPING POINT”, 2016
63. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports
The technologies are available in all cities
63
Editor's Notes
GHG emission growth has accelerated during the last decade. Despite a growing number of climate change mitigation policies, annual GHG emissions grew on average by 1.0 giga tonne carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2eq) (2.2%) per year from 2000 to 2010 compared to 0.4 GtCO2eq (1.3%) per year from 1970 to 2000.
Total anthropogenic GHG emissions were the highest in human history from 2000 to 2010 and reached 49 (±4.5) GtCO2eq/yr in 2010.
The global economic crisis 2007/2008 only temporarily reduced emissions.
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes contribute most to GHG emission levels and growth. After 2010 these emissions continued to grow by about 3% between 2010 and 2011 and by about 1-2% between 2011 and 2012.
In this section, the evidence on long-term scenarios is assessed. The long-term scenarios assessed in WGIII were generated primarily by large-scale, integrated models that project many key characteristics of mitigation pathways to mid-century and beyond. These models link many important human systems (e.g., energy, agriculture and land use, economy) with physical processes associated with climate change (e.g., the carbon cycle).
For the purpose of this assessment, roughly 300 baseline scenarios and 900 mitigation scenarios were collected through an open call from integrated modelling teams around the world.
The assessment of this literature reveals that limiting warming to 2°C involves substantial technological, economic and institutional challenges. But even much less ambitious mitigation scenarios require a fundamental deviation from baseline.
This figure shows four concepts by which urban form can be characterized – these also function as drivers of urban emissions.
(1) The 2nd column shows the effect of the 4 drivers on Vehicles Kilometer Travelled (VKT). It turns out the increasing the drivers leads (in all but 2 cases) to a reduction of distances travelled, which in turn means less emissions.
(2) the 3rd column describes how the drivers are measured.
(3) The 4th column shows how the drivers co-vary with the (main) driver density.
(4) the last columns illustrate what leads to higher resp. lower emissions.
In this section, the evidence on long-term scenarios is assessed. The long-term scenarios assessed in WGIII were generated primarily by large-scale, integrated models that project many key characteristics of mitigation pathways to mid-century and beyond. These models link many important human systems (e.g., energy, agriculture and land use, economy) with physical processes associated with climate change (e.g., the carbon cycle).
For the purpose of this assessment, roughly 300 baseline scenarios and 900 mitigation scenarios were collected through an open call from integrated modelling teams around the world.
The assessment of this literature reveals that limiting warming to 2°C involves substantial technological, economic and institutional challenges. But even much less ambitious mitigation scenarios require a fundamental deviation from baseline.
NOT FROM IPCC
Aktuell 20.05.2010 Orte unter 5.000 Einwohner
Aktuell 20.05.2010 Orte unter 5.000 Einwohner
NOT FROM IPCC!!
In this section, the evidence on long-term scenarios is assessed. The long-term scenarios assessed in WGIII were generated primarily by large-scale, integrated models that project many key characteristics of mitigation pathways to mid-century and beyond. These models link many important human systems (e.g., energy, agriculture and land use, economy) with physical processes associated with climate change (e.g., the carbon cycle).
For the purpose of this assessment, roughly 300 baseline scenarios and 900 mitigation scenarios were collected through an open call from integrated modelling teams around the world.
The assessment of this literature reveals that limiting warming to 2°C involves substantial technological, economic and institutional challenges. But even much less ambitious mitigation scenarios require a fundamental deviation from baseline.
About CRV: Quoting Müller (2013):
In accounting, the value of an asset can be expressed, among others, as the historical cost (original monetary value) or as the replacement cost (cost of replacing an asset with current prices). Similarly, the carbon footprint of a stock can be defined as the historical emissions produced to build up the stock, or as the carbon emissions that would be generated if the existing stock was replaced using current technologies. As emissions per ton of material produced tend to decline, the replacement value expressed in carbon (here called “carbon replacement value, CRV”) is generally smaller than the historical value expressed in carbon (here called “CHV”). In this study, we determine the CRV of stocks, because this value is better suited when using the stocks in industrialized countries as a benchmark for stocks in developing countries.
The CRVP was determined for the year 2008 using the three key materials steel, cement, and aluminum as a proxy. In 2008, these materials accounted for nearly half of industrial emissions (25% steel, 19% cement, and 3% aluminum) and 17% of total energy- and process-related CO2 emissions.16 Emissions of other materials are either less significant for infrastructure stocks (e.g., plastic and paper, which together constitute about 3% energy- and process-related emissions) or contribute significantly smaller amounts of emissions (e.g., other metals, gravel).
Talking points:
Concerning emissions from building urban structures (building up stocks) it is important to understand the magnitude of future emissions awaiting us if the developing world would mimic the pathway western countries have taken.
The y-axis shows the amount of emissions (per person) needed to build the infrastructures (houses, transport (streets, railways, bridges), industry plants) existing in respective countries. You can see that developed countries (Annex I) have a far greater stock than Non-Annex I countries.
Talking points:
The shaded area shows how much emissions would be needed to build in the rest of the world infrastructure of the level as existing today in developed countries. This rough estimate takes the expected increase of world population until 2050 into account (see x-axis). Compare the size of this area to the yellow-red coloured bars to see that these emissions would far outstrip the emissions needed to build up today’s infrastructure.
Mitigation scenarios in which policies stabilize atmospheric concentrations (without overshoot) in the range from 430 to 530 ppm CO2eq by 2100 lead to substantial shifts in annual investment flows during the period 2010–2029 compared to baseline scenarios.
Annual incremental energy efficiency investments in transport, buildings and industry is projected to increase by about USD 336 (1–641) billion, frequently involving modernization of existing equipment.
Annual investment in conventional fossil fuel technologies associated with the electricity supply sector is projected to decline by about USD 30 (2–166) billion (median: -20% compared to 2010) while annual investment in low-carbon electricity supply (i.e., renewables, nuclear and electricity generation with CCS) is projected to rise by about USD 147 (31–360) billion (median: +100% compared to 2010).
For comparison, global total annual investment in the energy system is presently about USD 1200 billion.
