Decarbonization bottlenecks and short-term policy entry points towards achieving the Paris climate goals

1. Decarbonization bottlenecks and short-term policy
entry points towards achieving the Paris climate goals
Gunnar Luderer, Elmar Kriegler, Christoph Bertram and many co-authors
ETSAP Meeting, Paris
June 6th, 2019

2. The case for well-below 2oC stabilization
2Dr. Gunnar Luderer
Energy Systems Group
Schellnhuber et al. (2016)

3. The case for well-below 2oC stabilization
3Dr. Gunnar Luderer
Energy Systems Group
Schellnhuber et al. (2016)

4. Very small remaining CO2 budget for Paris targets
4
IPCC AR5 SYR (2014)
Cumulated CO2-Emissions since 1870 [GtCO2]
Warmingsince1861-1880[oC]
Global warming is roughly proportional
to cumulative emissions
 There is a finite residual CO2-budget
 Emissions have to be reduced to
near-zero in the long-term
IPCC SR1.5 (2018)
Table 2.2.
1.5oC: ~320 GtCO2
Well below 2oC:
< 1070 GtCO2

5. Post-Paris mitigation scenarios
5
• Reference:
Continuation of pre-Paris policies
• NDCs:
Implementation of NDCs,
extrapolation of effort beyond 2030
• well below 2oC:
2016-2100 CO2 emissions limited to 800
GtCO2
• 1.5oC:
2016-2100 CO2 emissions limited to 200
GtCO2
NDC
Based on
Luderer et al. (2018), Nature Clim. Chnage
Vrontisi et al. (2018), Env. Res. Lett.

6. Post-Paris mitigation scenarios
6
NDC
2030
NDC
15Gt
27Gt
Based on
Luderer et al. (2018), Nature Clim. Chnage
Vrontisi et al. (2018), Env. Res. Lett.

7. Implications for energy systems
7Dr. Gunnar Luderer
Energy Systems Group
1.5oC pathway
REMIND
Based on
Luderer et al. (2018), Nature Clim. Chnage

8. 1.5oC
Sectoral breakdown of cumulative emissions
8Dr. Gunnar Luderer
Energy Systems Group
1.5oC Scenarios
(average of models)
Based on
Luderer et al. (2018), Nature Clim. Chnage

9. Sectoral breakdown of cumulative emissions
9Dr. Gunnar Luderer
Energy Systems Group
1.5oC
1.5oC Scenarios
(average of models)
 Remaining fossil emissions of
1000 Gt CO2, even with
immediate and comprehensive
climate action
 Major emissions from transport
and industry
 Negative emissions required for
1.5°C limit
Feasibility of Paris targets and scale of
carbon dioxide removal (CDR)
ultimately determined by
residual fossil emissions

10. Clean power is not enough!
10Dr. Gunnar Luderer
Energy Systems Group
2050 CO2 emissions normalized to 2010
• Power sector is the most important early
entry point for decarbonization
• Most of the incremental effort for 1.5oC
over 2oC comes from demand side
Luderer et al.,
Nature Clim. Ch. (2018)

11. Dr. Gunnar Luderer
Energy Systems Group
2050
Total demand
side emissions
[Gt CO2]
~
Final energy
consumption
[EJ]
Non-electric
energy demand
[%]
CO2-intensity
of fuels
[kg/GJ]
x x
Decomposition of CO2 Emissions
Energy efficiency &
demand reduction
Reduction of
fuel use
(Electrification)
Decarbonization
of fuels
(Biomass, H2,
industry CCS,
synthetic fuels)
Abatement
strategies:
Luderer et al.,
Nature Clim. Ch. (2018)
11
How can demand-side emissions be limited?

12. Delay of strenghtening action...
12Dr. Gunnar Luderer
Energy Systems Group
…likely to push
1.5oC out of reach:
4 of 7 models infeasible
NDC

13. Delay of strenghtening action...
13Dr. Gunnar Luderer
Energy Systems Group
Post-2030
CO2 prices as in
immediate action
scenarios
NDC-CO2price
NDC

14. Impact of not strengthening before 2030
14Dr. Gunnar Luderer
Energy Systems Group
Early1.5C
Delay
Excess
• 80 GtCO2 of excess
emissions in NDCs until
2030

15. Impact of not strengthening before 2030
15Dr. Gunnar Luderer
Energy Systems Group
• 80 GtCO2 of excess
emissions in INDCs
until 2030
• Growing to 250 GtCO2
until 2050 due to
carbon lock-in
Early1.5C
Delay
Excess

16. Impact of not strengthening before 2030
16Dr. Gunnar Luderer
Energy Systems Group
Early1.5C
Delay
Excess

17. Entry points to bridging emissions gap
17
2oC pathways
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0
10
20
30
40
GtCO2/year
NDCs Good Practice Net Zero Cost−effective pricing
„Good Practice“ and „Net Zero“
Policy packages include
• Renewable energy quotas
• Restrictions on new coal and
gas power plants w/o CCS
• Energy efficiency
improvements in industry and
buildings
• Upscaling of industry CCS
• Fuel efficiency improvements
in road transport and aviation
• Increase of electric vehicle
share
• Eliminating deforestation and
10 mio ha/yr afforestation
• Moderate carbon pricing
Krielger, Bertram et al. (2018),
Env. Res. Letters

18. Entry points to bridging emissions gap
18
2oC pathways
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0
10
20
30
40
GtCO2/year
NDCs Good Practice Net Zero Cost−effective pricing
„Good Practice“ and „Net Zero“
Policy packages include
• Renewable energy quotas
• Restrictions on new coal and
gas power plants w/o CCS
• Energy efficiency
improvements in industry and
buildings
• Upscaling of industry CCS
• Fuel efficiency improvements
in road transport and aviation
• Increase of electric vehicle
share
• Eliminating deforestation and
10 mio ha/yr afforestation
• Moderate carbon pricing
Krielger, Bertram et al. (2018),
Env. Res. Letters

19. Entry points to bridging emissions gap
19
2oC pathways
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0
10
20
30
40
GtCO2/year
NDCs Good Practice Net Zero Cost−effective pricing
„Good Practice“ and „Net Zero“
Policy packages include
• Renewable energy quotas
• Restrictions on new coal and
gas power plants w/o CCS
• Energy efficiency
improvements in industry and
buildings
• Upscaling of industry CCS
• Fuel efficiency improvements
in road transport and aviation
• Increase of electric vehicle
share
• Eliminating deforestation and
10 mio ha/yr afforestation
• Moderate carbon pricing
Krielger, Bertram et al. (2018),
Env. Res. Letters

20. Barriers to political feasibility
20
NDCs
Good Practice
Net Zero
Cost-effective
pricing
Well-below 2oC,
reduced CDR
CO2EmiRed
5.8%/yr
CumCCS
880GtCO2
Speed Adjustment costs, Evolution of legal and institutional frameworks
CO2 reduction rate Maximum gross CO2 emissions reduction rate per decade
„Land for CDR“
increase
Maximum increase of land for afforestation and bioenergy crops per decade
Disruptiveness Short term economic effects, costs for specific interest groups
CO2 trend break Maximum change in gross CO2 emissions reduction rate between decades
Stranded coal assets Maximum idle capacity of coal power plants in a given year
Scale Sustainability concerns, Risk perception, Public Attitudes
Cumulative CCS use Cumulative CCS deployment over 21st century
Net Negative CO2 Cumulative net negative CO2 emissions over 21st century
Land for CDR Maximum global area for afforestation and bioenergy crops
Efficiency Macro-economic costs of mitigation
Consumption loss Net present value consumption loss 2020-2100 in % of baseline consumption
Price changes Changes to household consumption, with potential higher impacts
on the poor ( Distributional impacts)
CO2 price increase Maximum increase of carbon price per decade
Food price increase Maximum annual average increase of food price index per decade
Krielger, Bertram et al. (2018),
Env. Res. Letters

21. Conclusions
21Dr. Gunnar Luderer
Energy Systems Group
• Paris targets require near-zero emissions energy system by 2050 (1.5oC),
or shortly thereafter (well below 2oC)
• Carbon-free electricity is a key entry point, but not enough
• Demand sectors:
• Energy efficiency improvements (e.g., buildings heat)
• Electrification (electric cars, freight, industry)
• Sustainable biomass &Synthetic fuels (e.g., “power-to-gas”)
• CCS for industrial processes
• Delaying drastically reduces medium-to-longterm reduction potentials, due to
carbon lock-ins and lock-out of low-carbon technology
• Diverse policy portfolios are required to bridge to ambitious, comprehensive pricing
of all greenhouse gases

22. Thank you!
22
Contact: gunnar.luderer@pik-potsdam.de
This work has received funding from the
European Union’s Seventh Programme for
research, technological development and
demonstration under grant agreement No 308329.
PEP1.5 Project

23. References
23
Bertram, Luderer, Popp, Humpenöder, Minx, Lamb, Stevanovic, Giannousakis, Kriegler.
“Targeted Policies Can Compensate Most of the Increased 1 Sustainability Risks in 1.5°C Mitigation
Scenarios.”
Environmental Research Letters, 2018..
Kriegler, Elmar, Christoph Bertram, Takeshi Kuramochi, Michael Jakob, Michaja Pehl, Miodrag Stevanović,
Niklas Höhne, et al. “Short Term Policies to Keep the Door Open for Paris Climate Goals.” Environmental
Research Letters 13, no. 7 (2018): 074022. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac4f1.
Luderer, Vrontisi, Bertram, Edelenbosch, Pietzcker, Rogelj, De Boer,
Drouet, Emmerling, Fricko, Fujimori,Iyer, Keramidas, Kitous, Pehl, Krey,
Riahi, Saveyn, Tavoni, Van Vuuren, Kriegler: Residual fossil CO2 emissions
in 1.5–2oC pathways, Nature Climate Change (2018),
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0198-6.
Rogelj J, Shindell D, Jiang K, et al (2018) Chapter 2: Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context
of sustainable development. In: Global Warming of 1.5 °C an IPCC special report on the impacts of global
warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in
the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change. Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change
Vrontisi, Luderer, Saveyn, Keramidas, Aleluia, Baumstark, Bertram, et al.
“Enhancing Global Climate Policy Ambition towards a 1.5oC Stabilization:
A Short-Term Multi-Model Assessment.” Environmental Research Letters 13, (2018).
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab53e.