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Exploring the Uncertainty of BECCS in the
Future UK Low-Carbon Energy System
Dr. Pei-Hao Li (p.li@ucl.ac.uk)
UCL Energy In...
Outline
• Introduction
• UK TIMES (UKTM)
• BECCS in UKTM
• Scenarios
• Results
• Conclusions and Future Works
2
Introduction
• 2008 UK Climate Change Act: 80% reduction by 2050
 Five carbon budgets (up to 2032) so far
• Paris Agreeme...
• Developed by UCL Energy Institute with BEIS in wholeSEM project
• A whole energy systems model
• Technology-rich, Minimu...
• Bioenergy resource: import, domestic production, transformation and
transport (supply chain)
• BECCS: majorly for electr...
Scenarios for uncertain BECCS
• Bioenergy availability (low and high)
– According to AEA Ricardo report on UK biomass feed...
Results: GHG Emissions
• Higher BIO: Much lower emissions from ELC generation and H2 production
• GHG80 + higher BIO: More...
Results: Elc Supply & Demand
• Higher BECCS: negative emissions
• Extreme cases: more nuclear power, higher electrificatio...
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
PJ
Difference ...
Results: Costs
• Higher costs
– Lower availability of bioenergy
– Stricter GHG targets and delay of CCS
• GHG100_BIOH: sha...
Results: Net Zero
11
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PJ
GHG100_BI...
Conclusions and Future Works
• Influences on decarbonisation costs
– GHG targets > Bio availability > delay of CCS
• BECCS...
Conclusions and Future Works
• Link with global energy system model (TIAM-UCL) to
explore the availability of bioenergy fr...
Thanks for your attention!
Dr. Pei-Hao Li
UCL Energy Institute
p.li@ucl.ac.uk
14
Assess-BECCS
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Exploring the uncertainty of BECCS in the future low-carbon energy system in the UK

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Exploring the uncertainty of BECCS in the future low-carbon energy system in the UK

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Exploring the uncertainty of BECCS in the future low-carbon energy system in the UK

  1. 1. Exploring the Uncertainty of BECCS in the Future UK Low-Carbon Energy System Dr. Pei-Hao Li (p.li@ucl.ac.uk) UCL Energy Institute ETSAP Meeting, Stuttgart, Germany 7th-9th Nov, 2018 Assess-BECCS
  2. 2. Outline • Introduction • UK TIMES (UKTM) • BECCS in UKTM • Scenarios • Results • Conclusions and Future Works 2
  3. 3. Introduction • 2008 UK Climate Change Act: 80% reduction by 2050  Five carbon budgets (up to 2032) so far • Paris Agreement (12th Dec, 2015)  “The Paris Agreement, in seeking to strengthen the global response to climate change, reaffirms the goal of limiting global temperature increase to well below 2 degrees Celsius, while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees.” • IPCC 1.5 degree special report (8th Oct, 2018):  only 12 years left to limit climate change catastrophe • UK government (15th Oct, 2018) requested the CCC:  Evaluate when and how to achieve net zero GHG emissions • Negative emission technologies (including BECCS) are crucial • But BECCS is highly uncertain!! 3
  4. 4. • Developed by UCL Energy Institute with BEIS in wholeSEM project • A whole energy systems model • Technology-rich, Minimum cost • Adopted by UK government (BEIS, CCC) for policy making (5th Carbon Budget, Clean Growth Strategy), National Grid (Future Energy Scenarios), consultancies, universities UK TIMES (UTKM) 4
  5. 5. • Bioenergy resource: import, domestic production, transformation and transport (supply chain) • BECCS: majorly for electricity generation and hydrogen production BECCS in UKTM 5
  6. 6. Scenarios for uncertain BECCS • Bioenergy availability (low and high) – According to AEA Ricardo report on UK biomass feedstock availability • GHG targets: – The Climate Change Act 2008: 80% reduction on 1990 level by 2050 – 5th Carbon Budget: 57% reduction on 1990 levels by 2030 – Constraint on cumulative GHG emissions during 2032~2050 – For net zero scenarios, net GHG emissions should be 0 in 2050 GHG targets Low bio CCS from 2021 Low bio CCS from 2040 High bio CCS from 2021 High bio CCS from 2040 80% reduction by 2050 GHG80_BIOL (Reference) GHG80_BIOL _CCS2040 GHG80_BIOH GHG80_BIOH _CCS2040 Net zero by 2050 Infeasible Infeasible GHG100_BIOH GHG100_BIO H_CCS2040 6
  7. 7. Results: GHG Emissions • Higher BIO: Much lower emissions from ELC generation and H2 production • GHG80 + higher BIO: More emissions from residential and transport sectors • Delay of CCS: less emissions from H2 production 7 - 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 GHGemissions(MtCO2eq) GHG Emissions GHG80_BIOL GHG80_BIOL_CCS2040 GHG80_BIOH GHG80_BIOH_CCS2040 GHG100_BIOH GHG100_BIOH_CCS2040 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 MtCO2eq Difference of Sectoral GHG Emissions in 2050 Agriculture & Land Use Services Electricity Industry Residential Transport Hydrogen Processing Upstream Non-energy use Net difference
  8. 8. Results: Elc Supply & Demand • Higher BECCS: negative emissions • Extreme cases: more nuclear power, higher electrification in the industrial and residential sectors 8 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 TWh Difference of Electricity Generation by Fuel in 2050 Biomass Biomass CCS Wind Nuclear Storage output Net difference -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 TWh Difference of Sectoral Electricity Consumption in 2050 Agriculture Services Industry Residential Transport Process Hydrogen Upstream Storage input Net difference
  9. 9. -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 PJ Difference of Final Energy Consumption in 2050 Biomass and biofuels Coal Electricity Natural Gas Hydrogen Oil Products Other Renewables Manufactured fuels Net difference Results: Final Energy Consumption • Delay of CCS: less hydrogen • GHG80 + high BIO: more fossil fuels, less electricity, less hydrogen • GHG100: higher electrification levels 9 - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 PJ Final Energy Consumption (GHG80_BIOL) Biomass and biofuels Coal Electricity Natural Gas Hydrogen Oil Products Other Renewables Manufactured fuels
  10. 10. Results: Costs • Higher costs – Lower availability of bioenergy – Stricter GHG targets and delay of CCS • GHG100_BIOH: sharp increase of levels of electrification in final years 10 -100 - 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Carbonprice(£/tCO2) Carbon Price GHG80_BIOL GHG80_BIOL_CCS2040 GHG80_BIOH GHG80_BIOH_CCS2040 GHG100_BIOH GHG100_BIOH_CCS2040 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Undiscountedannualcosts(M£) Energy System Costs GHG80_BIOL GHG80_BIOL_CCS2040 GHG80_BIOH GHG80_BIOH_CCS2040 GHG100_BIOH GHG100_BIOH_CCS2040
  11. 11. Results: Net Zero 11 - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 PJ GHG100_BIOH Biomass and biofuels Coal Electricity Natural Gas Hydrogen Oil Products Other Renewables Manufactured fuels - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 PJ GHG100_BIOH_CCS2040 Biomass and biofuels Coal Electricity Natural Gas Hydrogen Oil Products Other Renewables Manufactured fuels - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 PJ GHG100_BIOH Agriculture Services Industry Residential Transport Process Hydrogen Upstream Storage input - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 PJ GHG100_BIOH_CCS2040 Agriculture Services Industry Residential Transport Process Hydrogen Upstream Storage input Final Energy Consumption Sectoral Electricity Consumption
  12. 12. Conclusions and Future Works • Influences on decarbonisation costs – GHG targets > Bio availability > delay of CCS • BECCS – Especially important to decarbonise the Elc sector – Create rooms for other sectors • Usage of bioenergy is flexible • Net zero by 2050 – Impossible without BECCS (or CCS after 2040) – Delay of CCS: • Extremely high level of electrification (esp. industrial sector) • Bioenergy is required in the transport sector before 2050 – Consumers’ participation becomes extremely critical 12 GHG80_BIOL_CCS2040 GHG80_BIOH GHG80_BIOH_CCS2040 GHG100_BIOH GHG100_BIOH_CCS2040 1.4% -6.2% -3.6% 4.4% 6% Difference of undiscounted costs in 2050 (GHG80_BIOL as base)
  13. 13. Conclusions and Future Works • Link with global energy system model (TIAM-UCL) to explore the availability of bioenergy from international trades for the UK • Evaluate the environmental impacts of high bioenergy production • Incorporate consumers’ technology choice into account (UK nationwide survey carried out for H2020 REEEM project) – Heating technologies – Vehicle technologies • Consider other NETs 13
  14. 14. Thanks for your attention! Dr. Pei-Hao Li UCL Energy Institute p.li@ucl.ac.uk 14 Assess-BECCS

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