Fertilizer markets in Sub-Saharan Africa are under severe pressure due to low inventories and high global prices. According to recent estimates, many key markets have less than 20% of the inventory needed to meet demand for the upcoming cropping season. Imports into major markets like Nigeria, Ghana, and Kenya in Q1 2022 were only around 10% of total demand. Global fertilizer prices reached record highs in early 2022 and availability from major suppliers like Russia and Ukraine has been significantly reduced due to the war. Without government subsidies or interventions to boost supplies, fertilizer access will remain very limited across Sub-Saharan Africa threatening food production for 2022.

1. 1
Sub-Sahara Fertilizer markets under
pressure

2. 2
Market risks in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA):
Estimates on current fertilizer stocks available as of April 2022
severe
medium
low to none
Based on Estimates by IFDC and Afriqom

3. 3
Regional Market : SSA countries 2021-2022
• Total market size in product tonnes for West Africa is about 40% of total Sub-Sahara (SSA)
consumption at between 3-4mnt of product.
• South and East Africa account for about 60% at 8-9mnt of product.
• Most recent trend analysis by AfricaFertilizer.Org shows about 1.5-2mnt of product will go
out of the entire SSA market in the 2022-2023 cropping season
• The 3 focus VIFAA* countries (Nigeria, Ghana and Kenya) are showing a sizeable gap
between supply and demand into 2022 already
• Other countries with limited inventory as per AfricaFertilizer.Org correspondents in Q1 of
2022 include: Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, Sudan, Togo, Mali, Niger
and Burkina Faso
VIFAA-Visualizing Insights on Fertilizer for African Agriculture-A BMGF supported program through Development gateway to visualize fertilizer information for
8 countries in sub-Sahara Africa. Data sets include, pricing, availability, trade and policy

4. 4
Market risks in Sub Saharan Africa:
Risk Matrix based on demand estimates vs Inventory 2022
Based on AfricaFertilizer.Org Estimates

5. 5
 Consumption driven by food crops.
 2021-22 tender award delays. Servicing of last
years tender ongoing. Higher prices
 Emergency subsidy announced for 114kt . Partly
subsidised market
 Q4-Q1 2022 low imports about 10% against total demand
 Main cropping season Q1-Q2. Medium supply risk
 Low imports in 2022, about 8% against demand of 350-
400kt
 BPS still not resumed. Severe supply risk
2022 Demand Situation: Top SSA Markets
 Out of season, urgent situation with balanced crop tiers
i.e., cash vs food crops
 Highly subsidised market.
Source: AfricaFertilizer.org
 Procurement reverted to the government
 Imminent tender, high global prices and availability stifling
decision. 13% inventory against 450kt demand
 Balanced crop tier market cash/food crops
 Low supply risk with mature markets and supply
streams
 Approx 45% inventory to date against 2.2mnt demand

6. 6
 Consumption driven by food crops.
 2021-22 tender award delays. Servicing of last
years tender ongoing. Higher prices
 Emergency subsidy announced for 114kt . Partly
subsidised market
 Q4-Q1 2022 low imports about 10% against total demand.
 Main cropping season Q1-Q2. Medium supply risk
 Low imports in 2022, about 8% against demand of 350-
400kt
 BPS still not resumed. Severe supply risk
2022 Demand Situation: Top SSA Markets
 Out of season, urgent situation with balanced crop tiers
i.e., cash vs food crops
 Highly subsidised market.
Source: AfricaFertilizer.org
 Procurement reverted to the government
 Imminent tender, high global prices and availability stifling
decision. 13% inventory against 450kt demand
 Balanced crop tier market cash/food crops
 Low supply risk with mature markets and supply
streams
 Approx 45% inventory to date against 2.2mnt demand
 Highly subsidised
 Low inventory 20%.
 Cropping season
imminent
 ECOWAS Embargo
 Only 16% inventory
against 300kt demand.
 Highly subsidised
 Severe supply risk
 38% inventory against
550kt demand

7. 7
 Consumption driven by food crops.
 2021-22 tender award delays. Servicing of last
years tender ongoing. Higher prices
 Emergency subsidy announced for 114kt . Partly
subsidised market
 Q4-Q1 2022 low imports about 10% against total demand.
 Main cropping season Q1-Q2. Medium supply risk
 Low imports in 2022, about 8% against demand of 350-
400kt
 BPS still not resumed. Severe supply risk
2022 Demand Situation: Top SSA Markets
 Out of season, urgent situation with balanced crop tiers
i.e., cash vs food crops
 Highly subsidised market.
Source: AfricaFertilizer.org
 Procurement reverted to the government
 Imminent tender, high global prices and availability stifling
decision. 13% inventory against 450kt demand
 Balanced crop tier market cash/food crops
 Low supply risk with mature markets and supply
streams
 Approx 45% inventory to date against 2.2mnt demand
 Highly subsidised
 Low inventory 20%.
 Cropping season
imminent
 ECOWAS Embargo
 Only 16% inventory
against 300kt demand.
 Highly subsidised
 Severe supply risk
 38% inventory against
550kt demand
• Less import dependent than other SSA
countries 70% domestic 30% imports
 64% inventory available for cropping
season
 60% inventory for cropping
season covered
 Cash crop driven,
subsidised market
 65% inventory covered.
 No subsidies, balanced market

8. 8
AVAILABILITY…

9. 9
YoY import comparisons, Ghana
Ghana Q1 YoY import comparisons for last 3 years
Source: AfricaFertilizer.Org Dashboards
• Depressed Q1 2022 import
figures
• Main drivers: High landed
prices out of reach to most
farmers, limited availability
from global markets, East
Europe crisis with about 28%
of all imports from this region
• MOP unavailable for blending

10. 10
Ghana imports from Russia/Ukraine
Ghana imports from East Europe
• Ghana relies substantially on
imports from the 2 countries.
• In 2020 Imports from R/U
were 10%, in 2021 18% and
in 2022 to date about 52%
has come for the region
• As crisis continues, this
source is becoming less of an
option exposing Ghana to
reduced tonnages and
subsequently reduced
consumption figures.
• As at Dec 2021, consumption
figures had dipped 61%.
Likely scenario to continue in
2022
Source: AfricaFertilizer.Org Dashboards

11. 11
YoY import comparisons, Nigeria
Nigeria Q1 YoY import comparisons for last 2 years
Source: AfricaFertilizer.Org Dashboards
• Little availability for SSA
markets with continued high
prices
• What has not been bought /
secured NOW will not be
available for this 2022
cropping season [May-July]
• First vessel for 2022 for DAP
arrived 2 weeks ago (April)
• MOP unavailable for blending

12. 12
YoY import comparisons, Nigeria
Nigeria annual import comparisons
Source: AfricaFertilizer.Org Dashboards
• Including the YoY
comparisons in lieu of Q1
2022 figures (Yet to be
received)
• Nigeria remains one of the
few countries that has hedged
the price increase with about
6mnt production capacity of
Urea and Negotiated
contracts for Phosphates from
Morocco in exchange for
ammonia
• Less import dependent than
other SSA countries 70%
domestic production 30%
imports
• MOP unavailable for blending

13. 13
Nigeria imports from Russia/Ukraine
Nigeria imports from East Europe
• Nigeria has imports from the 2
countries. In comparison to
the total consumption figures
(1.8mnt) this is a small
percentage
• In 2020 Imports from R/U
were 49% and in 2021 25%
and
• Reports from importers is that
most affected commodity is
MOP with limited availability
and record high prices
• The gains made under the
PFI last year might be at risk
Source: AfricaFertilizer.Org Dashboards

14. 14
YoY import comparisons, Kenya
Kenya Q1 YoY import comparisons for last 3 years
Source: AfricaFertilizer.Org Dashboards
• Little availability for SSA
markets with continued high
prices
• What has not been bought /
secured NOW will not be
available for this 2022
cropping season [May-July]
• MOP unavailable for blending

15. 15
Kenya imports from Russia/Ukraine
Kenya imports from East Europe
• Kenya has substantial imports
from the 2 countries.
• In 2020 Imports from R/U
were 15%, in 2021 12% and
in 2022 to date 0% has come
for the region
• Kenya has had to re-adjust its
sources to fill this gap.
• Most product from R/U
however was for Tea
production and imports for
food production might not be
factored as such.
• It is more of an indirect impact
with increases in feedstock
prices for fertilizer production
Source: AfricaFertilizer.Org Dashboards

16. 16
PRICE…

17. 17
Fertilizer prices – all nutrients were at their
record highs, even before the U/R war started
• Little availability for SSA markets
with continued high prices
• High FOB’s, high freight
assessments, high finance costs
= high landed CFR prices
• Retail levels markedly higher as
local logistics become firmer.
• Slight softening of global FOB’s
in Feb 2022 did little to stem the
rising retail prices i.e due to
higher priced in country
inventory.
As of April 08, 2022
Source: AfricaFertilizer.Org Dashboards
Nigeria International FOB’s vs retail prices

18. 18
Fertilizer prices – all nutrients were at their
record highs, even before the U/R war started
• Same scenario replicated in
Ghana
• Slight softening in Global FOBs
in Feb did little to stem high
retail prices.
• Global FOB’s have since
rebounded upwards to date
• MOP unavailable for blending
As of April 08, 2022
Source: AfricaFertilizer.Org Dashboards
Ghana International FOB’s vs retail prices

19. 19
Fertilizer prices – all nutrients were at their
record highs, even before the U/R war started
• Same scenario replicated in
Kenya
• Higher retail prices in
comparison to other VIFAA
countries due to very limited
availability during peak
application season.
• Government rolled out an
emergency subsidy to cover
about 114kt for the planting
season.
• Limited availability reported from
all importers
As of April 08, 2022
Source: AfricaFertilizer.Org Dashboards
Kenya International FOB’s vs retail prices

20. 20
Regional CFR comparisons
• All CFR netbacks to Africa markets continue to increase with no softening in sight
• Both finished product and blending markets continue to report high offers with tight validities
Source: Afriqom as of End April

21. 21
Possible Areas of Intervention
• Governments could step in and offer some sort of temporary subsidies to stimulate
procurement from global suppliers
• From our interactions with most importers in SSA, financing is the biggest bottleneck right
now. A year ago, one could position a Urea 30kt vessel at $9mn now it costs 3-4x.
Financiers not very flexible to match this.
• Very close tracking on market dynamics e.g., Pricing, availability to inform buyers on policy
and business decisions e.g., use of a fertilizer/price watch/dashboards etc.
• For mid-long term, invest heavily In building production capacity internally. SSA has been
exposed to the above risks largely in part as it is a net importer. Stimulate intra Africa trade
e.g Nigeria Urea, Phosphates from Morocco, Potash from Congo?
• Nutrient use efficiency-What is available could go to crop value chains with highest ROI,
easier said than done however as most farmers are using fertilizers for subsistence food
production. This could be done through massive farmer awareness campaigns and support
to organizations doing farmer outreach

22. 22
For more information
snduva@ifdc.org
Data sources: Nigeria Dashboard
Kenya Dashboard
Ghana Dashboard
Thank you