Presentation prepared by Seth Asante, Xinshen Diao, Paul Dorosh, Pranav Patil, Karl Pauw, and James Thurlow, all with the International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC. This is part of the Global Crisis Country Series.

1. Version: 13 June 2022
Ghana
Impacts of the Ukraine and Global
Crisis on Food Systems and Poverty
Seth Asante, Xinshen Diao, Paul Dorosh, Pranav Patil, Karl Pauw, and James Thurlow
International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC
These country studies are conducted by IFPRI with financial support from
BMGF, FCDO, and USAID. All studies use data and models developed with
ongoing support from BMGF, USAID and the CGIAR’s “Foresight and Metrics”
initiative. The Ghana case study benefitted from working with the CGIAR’s
“National Policies and Strategies” initiative, IFPRI’s Ghana country program, and
national partners.
Pauw Karl (k.pauw@cgiar.org) | Xinshen Diao (x.diao@cgiar.org) |
Paul Dorosh (p.dorosh@cgiar.org) | James Thurlow (j.thurlow@cgiar.org)

2. Version: 13 June 2022
Overview
• Series of country case studies
• Economywide modeling
• Capture world market shocks
• Estimate impacts on economy, agri-food
system, poverty, food security, etc.
• Simulate policy responses
• Three phases of analysis:
1. Initial data collection and impact assessment
2. Data revisions and analysis of broad policy options
• Cash transfers, food aid, and fertilizer subsidies
• Fiscal implications for national governments
3. In-country engagement and tailored policy analysis
Impact
assessment
Policy
analysis
Country coverage
Countries with IFPRI RIAPA models
May June
July

3. Version: 13 June 2022
Shocks | World Food, Fuel and Fertilizer Prices
World price
Trade share
Direct use
Indirect use
Incomes
How big is the increase in world price?
How important are food and fertilizer imports in
local market?
How important is the windfall revenue from oil
exports for the government?
Which sectors use the product as an input?
Which other sectors are affected via supply chains?
What kinds of workers and households earn
incomes within the affected sectors?
Final use Which households consume the affected products?
Impact Channel Considerations World Price Shocks
Source: World Bank Pink Sheets
Global data
11%
-13%
100%
56%
34%
88%
101%
Maize Rice Wheat Palm oil Crude oil Natural gas Fertilizer
Change in real world prices (June 2021 to April 2022)
30 Jun 2021 - 31 Jan 2022 31 Jan 2022 - 30 Apr 2022
30 Jun 2021 - 30 Apr 2022

4. Version: 13 June 2022
Shocks | World Food, Fuel and Fertilizer Prices
World price
Trade share
Direct use
Indirect use
Incomes
How big is the increase in world price?
How important are food and fertilizer imports in
local market?
How important is the windfall revenue from oil
exports for the government?
Which sectors use the product as an input?
Which other sectors are affected via supply chains?
What kinds of workers and households earn
incomes within the affected sectors?
Final use Which households consume the affected products?
Impact Channel Considerations Supply and Demand
Supply
(% by source)
Demand
(% by use)
Ghana data
Source: IFPRI Ghana RIAPA Model
99%
56%
87%
97%
44%
13%
3%
Maize Wheat Edible oils Oil products
Imports
Domestic
35%
99%
43%
26%
65%
1%
50%
14%
7%
60%
Maize Wheat Edible oils Oil products
Exports
Final use
Input use
+ Others = 100%
+ + +
1.2% 0.4% 1.5% 9.2%
Products’ share of the
value of total demand
throughout the economy
Note: Wheat includes wheat grains and flours. All wheat grains are imported, while wheat flours
are all processed domestically.

5. Version: 13 June 2022
Shocks | World Food, Fuel and Fertilizer Prices
World price
Trade share
Direct use
Indirect use
Incomes
How big is the increase in world price?
How important are food and fertilizer imports in
local market?
How important is the windfall revenue from oil
exports for the government?
Which sectors use the product as an input?
Which other sectors are affected via supply chains?
What kinds of workers and households earn
incomes within the affected sectors?
Final use Which households consume the affected products?
Impact Channel Considerations Consumption Baskets
Ghana data
Source: IFPRI Ghana RIAPA Model
9.0% 11.2% 9.1%
14.0%
9.1%
45.2%
55.9%
45.6%
56.2%
47.9%
45.7%
41.5%
53.6%
40.8%
51.1%
All households Rural Urban Poor Nonpoor
Composition of household consumption spending
Cereals & edible oils Other foods Non-food goods & services

6. Version: 13 June 2022
Shocks | Fertilizer Response (crop productivity effect)
Adoption
Application
Price
Demand
Response
What share of cultivated land uses fertilizers?
How much fertilizer is being used?
(i.e., fertilizer application rate)
How big is the domestic fertilizer price increase?
How do farmers react to rising fertilizer prices?
(i.e., price elasticity of fertilizer demand)
How do yields change with reduced fertilizer use?
(i.e., fertilizer response ratio)
Impact Channel Considerations Fertilizer Adoption Rate
Source: EGC–ISSER Ghana Socioeconomic Panel Survey (GSPS) Wave 3 (2017/18)
Timing When is the fertilizer needed?
Ghana data
71%
32%
61%
34%
39%
49%
48%
67%
67%
50%
7%
33%
65%
41%
40%
36%
45%
72%
71%
Maize
Sorghum & millet
Rice
Pulses
Groundnuts
Oilseeds
Cassava
Irish potatoes
Sweet potatoes
Leafy vegetables
Other vegetables
Sugarcane
Cotton
Nuts
Bananas
Plantains
Fruits
Cocoa
Rubber
Share of cultivated land using fertilizer

7. Version: 13 June 2022
Shocks | Fertilizer Response (crop productivity effect)
Adoption
Application
Price
Demand
Response
What share of cultivated land uses fertilizers?
How much fertilizer is being used?
(i.e., fertilizer application rate)
How big is the domestic fertilizer price increase?
How do farmers react to rising fertilizer prices?
(i.e., price elasticity of fertilizer demand)
How do yields change with reduced fertilizer use?
(i.e., fertilizer response ratio)
Impact Channel Considerations
Crop Calendar
Source: USDA/FAS/IPAD
Timing When is the fertilizer needed?
Ghana
Planting for Ghana’s 2022 main seasons is underway

8. Version: 13 June 2022
Results | GDP and Employment
• National GDP and employment are not greatly
affected by the world price shocks
• Positive terms-of-trade effect from windfall oil
revenues caused by higher oil prices
(i.e., positive effect of higher fuel export prices
slightly outweighs negative effect of higher food
and fertilizer import prices)
• Leads to higher public spending on construction
• However, gains in oil and construction GDP are not
large enough to offset the negative effect on the
rest of the economy
• Agri-food system GDP and employment fall
significantly
• GDP declines in both primary agriculture and off-
farm agri-food sectors (e.g., processing, trading)
• Declines in agriculture GDP equal to 46% of overall
GDP losses in the country
• Faster job losses in off-farm sectors (equal to three-
quarters of job losses economywide)
Source: IFPRI Ghana RIAPA Model
Contribution to total change
GDP
Jobs
-0.5%
-1.3%
-1.3%
-1.4%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.6%
-0.8%
-2.6%
0.0%
-3.0% -2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5%
Whole economy
Whole AFS
Agriculture
Off-farm
Outside AFS
Agri-food
system
Change in GDP and employment due to
food, fuel and fertilizer shocks (%)
GDP Employment
46%
48%
6%
Agriculture
Off-farm
Outside AFS
29%
74%

9. Version: 13 June 2022
Results | Drivers of GDP Losses
• Fertilizer and food shocks lead to national GDP losses
while rising fuel prices have a small positive effect
• Agri-food GDP losses mostly driven by fertilizer shocks
• Fertilizer directly affects primary agricultural production
• Disrupts downstream processing via supply chains
• Off-farm adversely affected more by higher food prices,
which raise cost of agro-processing and food services
• GDP outside the agri-food system is largely unaffected
• Negative impact of fertilizer and food shocks are offset by
positive impact of fuel shocks
Source: IFPRI Ghana RIAPA Model
-0.2%
-0.4%
-1.0%
-0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.3%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.4%
-0.5%
-0.2%
-0.5%
-1.3%
-1.3%
-1.4%
0.0%
Whole economy
Whole AFS
Agriculture
Off-farm
Outside AFS
Agri-food
system
Percentage change in real GDP due to food, fuel and
fertilizer shocks (%)
Food prices Fuel prices Fertilizer prices & response
Notes: About 45 percent of the effect on agriculture GDP under “fertilizer prices and response” is directly from rising fertilizer,
while the remaining 55 percent is from the productivity shock caused by lowering the use of fertilizer.

10. Version: 13 June 2022
Results | Household Consumption
Source: IFPRI Ghana RIAPA Model
• Household consumption falls
• Losses are larger than GDP losses as households are hit
twice, by rising prices and falling incomes
• Rising fertilizer prices is most important driver of
consumption losses
• From falling agricultural incomes
• Importance of shocks differs across population groups:
• Fertilizer shocks much more important for rural and poor
households
• Rely more on farm incomes
• Consume more domestically-produced foods
• Food prices affect all households with a larger impact on
urban households
• More import-intensive consumer basket
• Fuel shocks increase consumption for all households
• Larger positive impact on urban and non-poor households
• Earn more income outside the agri-food system
-0.5%
-0.4%
-0.6%
-0.5%
-0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
0.4%
0.2%
0.3%
-1.0%
-1.5%
-0.8%
-1.6%
-0.9%
-1.2%
-1.7%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-1.1%
National
Rural
Urban
Poor
Nonpoor
Percentage change in real consumption
Food prices Fuel prices Fertilizer prices & response

11. Version: 13 June 2022
Results | Changes in Inequality
• Differential effects on poor/nonpoor households drive
changes in inequality:
• Fertilizer shocks affect low quintiles much more than top
quintile
• Food prices have similar impact across the income
distribution
• Fuel shocks have positive effect for all household groups,
with larger gains for top two quintiles
• Combined shocks follow the pattern of fertilizer shocks
• Overall, inequality rises
• Larger consumption losses in poorer quintiles, driven
mostly by fertilizer shock, causes inequality to increase
Source: IFPRI Ghana RIAPA Model
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5
Percentage change in quintile consumption
Food prices
Fuel prices
Fertilizer prices & response
Combined food, fuel and fertilizer shocks

12. Version: 13 June 2022
Share of population
falling into poverty
Results | Poverty
• Poverty rises significantly
• Headcount rate up modestly by 0.5% points
• 140 thousand more people pushed into poverty
• Larger increase in poverty in rural areas
• Near 90% of expanded poor population
• Much larger increase in rural poverty headcount rate
• Almost all driven by fertilizer shock
Source: IFPRI Ghana RIAPA Model
Contribution
to change
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-0.1%
0.5%
0.1%
1.0%
0.5%
0.1%
0.9%
National
Urban
Rural
Change in poverty headcount rate (%-point)
Food prices Fuel prices Fertilizer prices & response
10
7
3
-8
0
-8
142
12
128
143
19
124
National
Urban
Rural
Change in poor population (1000s)
Food prices Fuel prices Fertilizer prices & response
7%
99%
13%
87%
Urban
Rural
Notes: About 14% of the country’s population have adult equivalent consumption levels that fall below the US$1.90 poverty
line. The poverty rate is much higher in rural, about 24%, than in urban, about 3%.

13. Version: 13 June 2022
• Global price shocks have differential effects on the
cost of six food groups for a healthy reference diet
• Reference diet is the EAT-Lancet’s “healthy” diet
thresholds for the six major food groups
• Rising prices for edible oils (in added fats) and cereals
(in staples) push up their costs, while falling incomes
reduce demand for proteins (meats & fish), dairy and
vegetables and lower their cost
Results | Diet Quality
Source: IFPRI Ghana RIAPA Model
• Rising food prices and falling incomes cause diet quality
to worsen for many households
• Prior to the crisis, few households had consumption levels
and diversity needed for a healthy diet
• Rising food prices cause 670 thousand people to become
deprived in at least one additional food group
• Urban population accounts for more of the deterioration in
diet quality
0.4%
0.1%
-0.1%
0.0%
-0.2%
-0.3%
0.9%
Net change in
cost of healthy
diet
Contributions of
food groups to
change
Change in the real cost of a healthy
reference diet caused by rising world
prices (%)
Added fats
Proteins
Dairy
Fruits
Vegetables
Staples
10.7%
18.9%
12.5%
24.2%
26.3%
7.4%
Shares of six food groups in
total cost of a healthy diet
prior to the crisis
Added fats
Proteins
Dairy
Fruits
Vegetables
Staples
465
327
138
205
114
91
670
442
229
National
Urban
Rural
Number of people to become deprived in at least one
additional food group (1000s)
Food prices Fuel prices Fertilizer prices & response

14. Version: 13 June 2022
Headlines
• Together, food, fuel and fertilizer shocks do not greatly
affect GDP and employment in Ghana
• Food and fertilizer shocks cause total GDP to fall, but this is
partially offset by windfall revenues from higher oil export
prices
• Agri-food system is adversely affected by high fertilizer prices
in agriculture and high food prices for its off-farm components
• Poor and rural households are more vulnerable
• Larger income losses
• Greater increase in poverty (esp. number of poor people)
• Many become deterioration in diet quality
• Next steps
• Evaluate policy options available to governments and
development partners to mitigate impacts on food systems,
poverty, and food insecurity (e.g., cash transfers, food aid,
fertilizer subsidies, fiscal support, etc.)
Impact
assessment
Policy
analysis
Country coverage
May June
July