Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Global Food Security Challenges and Opportunities

  • Be the first to comment

Global Food Security Challenges and Opportunities

  1. 1. Global Food Security Challenges and Opportunities<br />Shenggen FanDirector General<br />International Food Policy Research Institute<br />University of Nebraska-Lincoln’s Interdisciplinary Research Initiative in Food, Water, and Energy Resources Policy Event, Nebraska, April 13, 2011 <br />
  2. 2. Key messages<br />Food security challenges remain large<br />A development agenda with greater support for food security is needed<br />The role of policy research is crucial<br />
  3. 3. Food security challenges remain large<br />
  4. 4. The goal of halving hunger is off-track<br />Number of hungry people, 1990-2015<br />946<br />584<br />Source: Fan 2010<br />
  5. 5. Challenges to global food security<br />Food price volatility<br />Energy/Biofuels<br />Population growth and demographic changes<br />Land and water constraints<br />Climate change<br />
  6. 6. Food price hikes and volatility<br />Global hikes since June 2010<br />Maize: 90%<br />Wheat: 82%<br />High domestic food inflation<br />China: 10% (Jan. 2011, y-o-y)<br />India: 11% (Feb. 2011, y-o-y) <br />Driven by non-staples<br />Volatility due to<br />Natural disasters<br />Panic purchases<br />Trade restrictions, etc.<br />Source: FAO 2011<br />
  7. 7. High and volatile food prices increase food insecurity<br />Self-reported food insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa<br />Source: Headey 2011<br />
  8. 8. Rapidly growing population and demographic change<br />World population reaches 9 billion by 2050<br />All growth to come from urban areas<br />Most growth to come from developing countries<br />Source: FAO 2009.<br />Larger and more urban population will demand more and better food<br />
  9. 9. Rising energy prices influence food security<br />Rising energy prices cause food prices to increase, rather than the reverse (Heady and Fan 2010) <br />Rising energy prices make biofuels more profitable, rather than agricultural production more expensive (Abbott, Hurt, and Tyner 2008)<br />Source: Data from IMF 2011<br />
  10. 10. Biofuel boom<br />World ethanol and biodiesel production<br />Biofuel production to more than double from 2007-09 to 2019 (OECD-FAO 2010)<br />Biofuel demand to grow four-fold between 2008 and 2035 (IEA 2010)<br />Biofuels support to rise <br />2009: $20 bn<br />From 2010 to 2020: $45 bn<br />From 2011 to 2035: $65 bn<br />Source: Data from Earth Policy Institute 2011<br />
  11. 11. Food-fuel competition(e.g. U.S.maize)<br />Source: Data from Earth Policy Institute 2011<br />Source: Data from USDA 2011; Headey 2011<br />
  12. 12. Biofuels will impact food security(2020, compared to baseline)<br />Changes in calorie availability (%)<br />Price changes (%)<br />Source: Rosegrant et al. 2008<br />Changes in number of malnourished children (‘000s)<br />
  13. 13. Growing land constraints<br />Arable land per capita (ha in use per person)<br />Source: Bruinsma 2009<br />Global extent of soils with low nutrient capital reserves<br />Source: Ahamed et al 2006<br />
  14. 14. Severe water constraints<br />With “business as usual,” high water stress by 2050 puts at risk:<br /><ul><li>52% of global population
  15. 15. 49% of global grain production
  16. 16. 45% of global GDP</li></ul>Source: Veolia Water and IFPRI 2011<br />
  17. 17. Climate change will push up food prices <br />World food price increases under various scenarios, 2010–2050<br />(% change from 2010)<br />Source: Nelson et al. 2010<br />
  18. 18. A development agenda with greater support for food security is needed<br />
  19. 19. Address food price volatility<br />Promote effective policies and technology investments to minimize food-fuel competition<br />Support transparent, fair, and open global trade to enhance efficiency of global agricultural markets <br />Create global, physical, shared grain reserve to address food price crises<br />Establish an international working group to monitor world food situation and catalyze action<br />
  20. 20. Invest in agriculture and smallholder productivity<br />Source: Data from IFPRI SPEED database<br />Improve access to quality seeds, fertilizer, financial and extension services, crop insurance, new technologies, rural infrastructure <br />
  21. 21. Promote safety nets that increase productive capacity <br />Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Program (PSNP)<br />Improved daily/capita caloric acquisition in last 7 days by 10%<br />Enhanced food security in 2004-06 by 0.36 months<br />Rise in credit use by 12% points<br />Increased use of fertilizer by 11% points<br />Increased use of improved seeds by 5% points<br />Source: Gilligan, Hoddinott, and Taffesse 2009<br />
  22. 22. Promote land productivity improvements<br />Create awareness of sustainable land management (SLM) practices <br />Provide technical support for often knowledge-intensive SLM practices<br />Support generation of innovative SLM practices (e.g. fertilizer micro dosing and packaging, biomass transfer, manure management)<br />Invest in water storage or distribution to improve irrigation efficiency<br />Increase finance of irrigation investments, esp. for small farmers<br />Source: Nkonya et al. 2011, forthcoming<br />
  23. 23. Sustainable land management (SLM) practices have win–win outcomes <br /><ul><li>SLM practices: (evidence from Kenya, Niger, Nigeria, and Uganda)</li></ul>control soil erosion <br />increase soil carbon stock<br />increase crop yields<br />reduce climate-induced production risks <br />enhance agricultural productivity and incomes<br />Examples of SLM practices: irrigation, agroforestry, fertilizers, mulching, crop residues, improved fallow, compost<br />Source: Kato et al. 2010; Nkonya et al. 2011, forthcoming<br />
  24. 24. Promote water productivity improvements<br />Higher levels of water reuse by all users of water<br />Improvements and evolution of water technology<br />Water and wastewater infrastructure improvements<br />Extension of services to rural and urban poor populations <br />Greater energy efficiency with increased use of renewable energy<br />Source: Veolia Water and IFPRI 2011<br />
  25. 25. Sustainable water management has high pay-offs<br />Compared to “business as usual,” it can de-risk:<br />>1 bn people<br />~$17 trillion of GDP<br />>20% of children likely to suffer from malnutrition(with higher investments in rural water supply and sanitation and female secondary education)<br />Source: Veolia Water and IFPRI 2011<br />
  26. 26. Invest in climate change adaptation and mitigation esp. through agriculture<br />Adaptation: e.g. <br />improved land management<br />adjustment of planting dates <br />introduction of new crop varieties<br />Mitigation: e.g. <br />improved energy efficiency and crop yields<br />land management techniques to increase carbon storage<br />At least additional US$7 billion agricultural productivity investments are needed annually to offset adverse effects on human well-being<br />Source: IPCC 2007; Nelson et al. 2009 <br />
  27. 27. The role of policy research is crucial<br />
  28. 28. Changing global policy landscape<br />Emerging issues and new actors<br />High and volatile prices, increasing natural resource stresses, climate change, demographic shifts etc.<br />Emerging economies, private sector, philanthropic organizations etc. <br />Emphasis on country-driven and -owned development strategies<br />Increased demand for policy research<br />
  29. 29. Role of policy research<br />Policy research evolves beyond technology e.g. to macroeconomics, trade, energy, and social protection<br />Contribution of policy research to poverty and hunger reduction<br />Direct: Increases investment in food security, agriculture, and rural development and improves resource allocation<br />Indirect: Creates enabling environment for agricultural technology innovation and adoption in developing countries<br />
  30. 30. Impacts of policy research<br />Vietnam rice marketing and policy research<br />Influenced timing of changes in rice policies<br />Generated benefits worth US$45-91 million<br />Bangladesh food-for-education program research<br />Improved targeting and strengthened capacity<br />Generated benefits of about US$248 million<br />Evaluation of Mexico’s PROGRESA<br />Guided program investments and implementation<br />Public investment research<br />Contributed to public investment strategies in many Asian and African countries <br />
  31. 31. Policy research insights for resource allocation<br />Source: Fan, Mogues, and Benin 2009 Note: “n.e.” indicates not estimated<br />
  32. 32. Examples of policy research needs (1)<br />Assessing the impacts of high and volatile food prices on poor people (use of household surveys)<br />Identifying strategic investments in pro-poor agricultural technology development and adoption<br />Understanding the impacts of biofuels and climate change on agriculture and food security<br />Identifying more effective strategies to promote sustainable land management for poverty reduction<br />
  33. 33. Examples of policy research needs (2)<br />Understanding the impacts of global change drivers on current and future availability and accessibility of water resources <br />Identifying research-based options to address growing water scarcity and water quality challenges<br />Identifying strategies to build the capacity of small farmers and the rural poor to adapt to climate change<br />Understanding the linkages between climate change and gender<br />

    Be the first to comment

    Login to see the comments

  • AdewaleSasore

    Feb. 22, 2016
  • joyjowie

    Jul. 18, 2017
  • CuixiaSun

    Oct. 14, 2018
  • JamilaKingwabaHassan

    Sep. 2, 2019


Total views


On Slideshare


From embeds


Number of embeds