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Global Food Security Challenges and Opportunities

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Global Food Security Challenges and Opportunities

  1. 1. Global Food Security Challenges and Opportunities<br />Shenggen FanDirector General<br />International Food Policy Research Institute<br />University of Nebraska-Lincoln’s Interdisciplinary Research Initiative in Food, Water, and Energy Resources Policy Event, Nebraska, April 13, 2011 <br />
  2. 2. Key messages<br />Food security challenges remain large<br />A development agenda with greater support for food security is needed<br />The role of policy research is crucial<br />
  3. 3. Food security challenges remain large<br />
  4. 4. The goal of halving hunger is off-track<br />Number of hungry people, 1990-2015<br />946<br />584<br />Source: Fan 2010<br />
  5. 5. Challenges to global food security<br />Food price volatility<br />Energy/Biofuels<br />Population growth and demographic changes<br />Land and water constraints<br />Climate change<br />
  6. 6. Food price hikes and volatility<br />Global hikes since June 2010<br />Maize: 90%<br />Wheat: 82%<br />High domestic food inflation<br />China: 10% (Jan. 2011, y-o-y)<br />India: 11% (Feb. 2011, y-o-y) <br />Driven by non-staples<br />Volatility due to<br />Natural disasters<br />Panic purchases<br />Trade restrictions, etc.<br />Source: FAO 2011<br />
  7. 7. High and volatile food prices increase food insecurity<br />Self-reported food insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa<br />Source: Headey 2011<br />
  8. 8. Rapidly growing population and demographic change<br />World population reaches 9 billion by 2050<br />All growth to come from urban areas<br />Most growth to come from developing countries<br />Source: FAO 2009.<br />Larger and more urban population will demand more and better food<br />
  9. 9. Rising energy prices influence food security<br />Rising energy prices cause food prices to increase, rather than the reverse (Heady and Fan 2010) <br />Rising energy prices make biofuels more profitable, rather than agricultural production more expensive (Abbott, Hurt, and Tyner 2008)<br />Source: Data from IMF 2011<br />
  10. 10. Biofuel boom<br />World ethanol and biodiesel production<br />Biofuel production to more than double from 2007-09 to 2019 (OECD-FAO 2010)<br />Biofuel demand to grow four-fold between 2008 and 2035 (IEA 2010)<br />Biofuels support to rise <br />2009: $20 bn<br />From 2010 to 2020: $45 bn<br />From 2011 to 2035: $65 bn<br />Source: Data from Earth Policy Institute 2011<br />
  11. 11. Food-fuel competition(e.g. U.S.maize)<br />Source: Data from Earth Policy Institute 2011<br />Source: Data from USDA 2011; Headey 2011<br />
  12. 12. Biofuels will impact food security(2020, compared to baseline)<br />Changes in calorie availability (%)<br />Price changes (%)<br />Source: Rosegrant et al. 2008<br />Changes in number of malnourished children (‘000s)<br />
  13. 13. Growing land constraints<br />Arable land per capita (ha in use per person)<br />Source: Bruinsma 2009<br />Global extent of soils with low nutrient capital reserves<br />Source: Ahamed et al 2006<br />
  14. 14. Severe water constraints<br />With “business as usual,” high water stress by 2050 puts at risk:<br /><ul><li>52% of global population
  15. 15. 49% of global grain production
  16. 16. 45% of global GDP</li></ul>Source: Veolia Water and IFPRI 2011<br />
  17. 17. Climate change will push up food prices <br />World food price increases under various scenarios, 2010–2050<br />(% change from 2010)<br />Source: Nelson et al. 2010<br />
  18. 18. A development agenda with greater support for food security is needed<br />
  19. 19. Address food price volatility<br />Promote effective policies and technology investments to minimize food-fuel competition<br />Support transparent, fair, and open global trade to enhance efficiency of global agricultural markets <br />Create global, physical, shared grain reserve to address food price crises<br />Establish an international working group to monitor world food situation and catalyze action<br />
  20. 20. Invest in agriculture and smallholder productivity<br />Source: Data from IFPRI SPEED database<br />Improve access to quality seeds, fertilizer, financial and extension services, crop insurance, new technologies, rural infrastructure <br />
  21. 21. Promote safety nets that increase productive capacity <br />Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Program (PSNP)<br />Improved daily/capita caloric acquisition in last 7 days by 10%<br />Enhanced food security in 2004-06 by 0.36 months<br />Rise in credit use by 12% points<br />Increased use of fertilizer by 11% points<br />Increased use of improved seeds by 5% points<br />Source: Gilligan, Hoddinott, and Taffesse 2009<br />
  22. 22. Promote land productivity improvements<br />Create awareness of sustainable land management (SLM) practices <br />Provide technical support for often knowledge-intensive SLM practices<br />Support generation of innovative SLM practices (e.g. fertilizer micro dosing and packaging, biomass transfer, manure management)<br />Invest in water storage or distribution to improve irrigation efficiency<br />Increase finance of irrigation investments, esp. for small farmers<br />Source: Nkonya et al. 2011, forthcoming<br />
  23. 23. Sustainable land management (SLM) practices have win–win outcomes <br /><ul><li>SLM practices: (evidence from Kenya, Niger, Nigeria, and Uganda)</li></ul>control soil erosion <br />increase soil carbon stock<br />increase crop yields<br />reduce climate-induced production risks <br />enhance agricultural productivity and incomes<br />Examples of SLM practices: irrigation, agroforestry, fertilizers, mulching, crop residues, improved fallow, compost<br />Source: Kato et al. 2010; Nkonya et al. 2011, forthcoming<br />
  24. 24. Promote water productivity improvements<br />Higher levels of water reuse by all users of water<br />Improvements and evolution of water technology<br />Water and wastewater infrastructure improvements<br />Extension of services to rural and urban poor populations <br />Greater energy efficiency with increased use of renewable energy<br />Source: Veolia Water and IFPRI 2011<br />
  25. 25. Sustainable water management has high pay-offs<br />Compared to “business as usual,” it can de-risk:<br />>1 bn people<br />~$17 trillion of GDP<br />>20% of children likely to suffer from malnutrition(with higher investments in rural water supply and sanitation and female secondary education)<br />Source: Veolia Water and IFPRI 2011<br />
  26. 26. Invest in climate change adaptation and mitigation esp. through agriculture<br />Adaptation: e.g. <br />improved land management<br />adjustment of planting dates <br />introduction of new crop varieties<br />Mitigation: e.g. <br />improved energy efficiency and crop yields<br />land management techniques to increase carbon storage<br />At least additional US$7 billion agricultural productivity investments are needed annually to offset adverse effects on human well-being<br />Source: IPCC 2007; Nelson et al. 2009 <br />
  27. 27. The role of policy research is crucial<br />
  28. 28. Changing global policy landscape<br />Emerging issues and new actors<br />High and volatile prices, increasing natural resource stresses, climate change, demographic shifts etc.<br />Emerging economies, private sector, philanthropic organizations etc. <br />Emphasis on country-driven and -owned development strategies<br />Increased demand for policy research<br />
  29. 29. Role of policy research<br />Policy research evolves beyond technology e.g. to macroeconomics, trade, energy, and social protection<br />Contribution of policy research to poverty and hunger reduction<br />Direct: Increases investment in food security, agriculture, and rural development and improves resource allocation<br />Indirect: Creates enabling environment for agricultural technology innovation and adoption in developing countries<br />
  30. 30. Impacts of policy research<br />Vietnam rice marketing and policy research<br />Influenced timing of changes in rice policies<br />Generated benefits worth US$45-91 million<br />Bangladesh food-for-education program research<br />Improved targeting and strengthened capacity<br />Generated benefits of about US$248 million<br />Evaluation of Mexico’s PROGRESA<br />Guided program investments and implementation<br />Public investment research<br />Contributed to public investment strategies in many Asian and African countries <br />
  31. 31. Policy research insights for resource allocation<br />Source: Fan, Mogues, and Benin 2009 Note: “n.e.” indicates not estimated<br />
  32. 32. Examples of policy research needs (1)<br />Assessing the impacts of high and volatile food prices on poor people (use of household surveys)<br />Identifying strategic investments in pro-poor agricultural technology development and adoption<br />Understanding the impacts of biofuels and climate change on agriculture and food security<br />Identifying more effective strategies to promote sustainable land management for poverty reduction<br />
  33. 33. Examples of policy research needs (2)<br />Understanding the impacts of global change drivers on current and future availability and accessibility of water resources <br />Identifying research-based options to address growing water scarcity and water quality challenges<br />Identifying strategies to build the capacity of small farmers and the rural poor to adapt to climate change<br />Understanding the linkages between climate change and gender<br />

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