Agri Commodities Annual Report 2016

Agri-Commodities: Annual Review and Outlook 2016
Thursday, January 07, 2016
www.angelcommodities.com
Content
Overview- Agri Commodities
Pulses
Oilseeds
Soft-Commodities
Spices
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Ritesh Kumar Sahu
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In 2015, Guar gum and Cardamom were the top losers
posting negative returns of 45 percent and 27 percent
respectively. Poor demand and higher carryover stocks
amid lower export demand from the US of guar complex
exerted downward pressure on the prices, while
Cardamom prices slipped due to rising imports and record
production forecast.
Castor seed falls due to subdued castor oil export and
higher production while Crude Palm oil (CPO) to trade
lower during the year due to lower international price and
higher imports. Coriander and Jeera prices have touched
their multi-year highest levels during the year but then falls
43 per cent and 22 per cent from their highs due to muted
export demand amid quality concern.
As far the international agricultural commodities are
concerned, prices remained largely mixed. Soybean, Corn
and Soy oil posted negative returns due to expected higher
output & lower demand. While Sugar, Cotton and CPO
gains in 2015 on forecast of output loss due to weather
phenomenon during 2016.
Monsoon 2015
The southwest monsoon hit the Kerala coast four days late
on Jun 5. June recorded 16 per cent excess rain and its
rapid advancement covers entire country one month in
advance leading to early sowing of kharif crops. However,
.
37.7
22.6
17.6
11.0 10.7
5.5 5.0
1.2
(2.5) (3.6) (5.7)
(13.1)
(24.9) (26.1) (26.7)
(34.2)
(45.9)
(60)
(50)
(40)
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
50
Source: Reuters, Angel Commodity Research
Agri-Commodities Price Performance (%)- 2015
7.6
6.2
3.6
(4.38)
(9.3)
(13.1)-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
Source: Reuters, Angel Commodity Research
Agri-Commodities Price Performance (%) in InternationalMarket-2015
Overview
Agri Commodities
Year 2015 was a volatile year for agricultural commodities
as the prices have moved either side during the year. This
excessive volatility attributed to fluctuating weather
phenomenon coupled with weakening and rising in global
demand. Chana, Maize and Sugar were the top performed
commodities while guar gum, coriander and cardamom
were top losers in 2015.
The year 2015 began on a bad note for the farm sector as
untimely rains in March-April affected Rabi crops of 2014-
15. Monsoon in the country was quite erratic in last two
years. The country had faced three consecutive monsoon
shocks - below normal south-west monsoons in 2014 and
2015 affecting the kharif crop production, and unseasonal
rains & hailstorm during peak Rabi harvesting in 2015.
Apart from weather phenomenon, some of the other
reasons also have a larger impact on agri-commodity prices
in 2015. Government policies regarding import duties cuts
for pulses and rise for edible oils, export support &
subsidies for Soft commodities like Cotton and sugar,
increase in Minimum Support prices (MSP) for both kharif
and rabi crops particularly pulses and oilseeds.
Further, the decision taken by certain states under Essential
Commodity act to impose stock limits on pulses and
oilseeds by major producing states and Prepone dates for
staggering delivery dates and imposition additional cash
limits on both -buy and Sell sides by commodity regulator
impacted the agri-commodity prices.
After below normal monsoon, prolonged excessive rains in
south and normal weather conditions for rabi planting
during Nov-Dec’15 has pressurized the prices of rabi crops
like Jeera and Mustard. Except for Spices and Cotton, which
largely remained bearish in the last quarter of the year
2013, the upward trend remained intact for other
agricultural commodities.
In the domestic markets, Chana lead the gainers list
registering about 45 per percent gains in 2015 followed by
Maize, Sugar, Kapas, Soybean and turmeric posting 22.3
percent, 17 percent, 11 percent, 9 per cent and 6.5 percent
respectively.
Earlier in 2015, Sugar and Cotton prices touch their lows on
ample supplies and lower world demand but then improved
during later part of the year due to concern over production
due to weather phenomenon- El Nino. Prices of Maize and
turmeric started to sur275ge after July on deficient rains in
the growing states.

Kharif Crop Output - First Advance Estimates (mt)
Crops 2015-16
(1
st
estimate)
2014-15
(4
th
estimate)
% chg
Rice (kharif) 90.61 90.86 - 0.3
Maize (Kharif) 15.51 16.39 - 5.4
Kharif Pulses 5.56 5.63 -1.2
Groundnut 5.11 5.07 0.8
Soybean 11.83 10.53 12.3
Castor seed 1.94 1.73 12.1
Cotton 33.5 35.48 -5.6
Sugarcane 341.43 359.33 -5.0
Source: Ministry of Agriculture
Rabi Sowing Progress
Sowing of Rabi crops have commenced in the domestic
markets and winter crop prospects remain strong
considering favorable soil weather and soil conditions.
According to the latest data released by the agriculture
ministry, total area sown as on Jan 01, 2016 was 541.1 lakh
hectare as against 567.6 lakh hectare (lh) reported a year
ago. Last week, only 507 lh were under winter crops. This
season’s rabi crop is about 4.7 per cent less than a year
ago.
Crop Area sown in
2015-16
Area sown in
2014-15
%
Change
Wheat 271.46 293.16 -7.4
Pulses 128.24 131.33 -2.4
Coarse Cereals 55.19 50.97 8.3
Oilseeds 71.47 76.11 -6.1
Rice 14.77 16.05 -8.0
Total 541.12 567.63 -4.7
Continue…
after July the monsoon slowed down. July witnessed a
deficiency of 16 per cent and It further grew to 22 and 24
per cent for August and September respectively. Overall,
monsoon in 2015 was deficient by 14 per below normal,
for the second consecutive year. The weak and erratic
monsoon distribution attributed to El-Nino phenomenon.
MSP increase
The prices for all major kharif season crops - cereals,
pulses, oilseeds and cotton - have increased. This decision
is based on recommendations of the Commission for
Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP) who, after taking into
account the cost of production, overall demand-supply,
domestic and international prices and inter-crop price
parity has recommended the hiked the MSP of Kharif
crops.
The Cabinet made decided to give a bonus of Rs.200 per
quintal for kharif pulses and Rs. 75 per quintal for Rabi
pulses over above the recommendations of the CACP.
Overall, the prices have increased by Rs. 250 – 275 per
quintal to give a strong price signal to farmers to increase
acreage and invest for increase in productivity of pulses.
Source: Ministry of Agriculture
First Estimate
In the first advance estimates for Kharif crop output 2015-
16 released in the month of September, the Agriculture
ministry pegged the food grain output at 124.05 million
tonnes (mt), marginally lower by 2.26 mt compared to
2014-15 season.
As far as the individual crops are concerned, the output
estimated to remain above last year’s levels for
Groundnut, Soybean and Castor Seeds while production
for Cotton, Maize, pulses and Sugarcane, where output
estimated a tad lower.
Production of Kharif Oilseeds is estimated 19.89 mt, higher
by 0.23 million tonnes as compared to production of 18.32
mt of Kharif Oilseeds estimated during 2014-15.
Rs. Per Quintal
Commodity MSP for 2014-15 MSP for 2015-16 Increase
Tur (Arhar) 4,350 4,625
(include Rs. 200 Bonus)
275
Moong 4,600 4,850
250
Urad 4,350 4,625
275
Gram 3,175 3,425
260

Pulses
Chana
Chana turned out to be the top gainers in 2015 after
recovered from their lowest levels in 2014. It traded with
upward bias throughout the year. The positive momentum
started at the beginning of sowing season, Oct’14 and since
then prices have surged more than 77 per cent to date.
In 2015, chana surged about 46 per cent from its lows in
Jan’15 on increase domestic demand, short supplies due to
crop damage and expensive imports. In the first half of the
year, prices surge more than 28 per cent from Rs 3,500 per
quintal to Rs 4,500 levels on reports of lower sowing
progress due to weak monsoon forecast and expectation of
imposition of import duty.
However, it remains quite stable at Rs 4,400 levels during
Jun’15-Jul’15 period, due to imposition of stock limits by
some state governments and prepone dates for staggered
delivery by the NCDEX. Moreover, good monsoon rains and
extending duty-free chana imports also helped in cap on
prices.
Chana prices moved up again after July after government
exempted stock limits for all the warehouses registered
with Warehouse Development and Regulatory Authority
(WDRA) and forecast of weak monsoon during the second
half of monsoon season (Aug-Sep) by Indian Meteorological
Department (IMD).
However, during the end of the year, prices have cooled
down after government raids on hoarders following stock
limits, resulted in seizure of 1.33 lakh tonnes of pulses, of
which over 1 lt have been offloaded in the market.
In the recent development, government is planning to
create a buffer stock from current year and Cabinet
Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) approved
procurement of about 50,000 tonnes pf pulses from the
kharif crop 2015-16 and one lakh tonne out of arrivals of
rabi crop of 2015-16.
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Source: Reuters
Monthly Average Chana Price (Rs / Quintal)- NCDEX
In addition, substantial increase in the Minimum Support
Price (MSP) for chana from Rs. 3175 per quintal to Rs.3425
for the marketing season 2016-17 encouraged higher
planting area.
Sowing progress
As per data release by Agriculture Ministry, pulses planted
in 12.8 million hectares so far, compared with 13.8 million
hectares last year, and a seasonal area of nearly 14 million
hectares. The acreage under chana reported at 79.17 lakh
hectares (lh), higher by 4.4 lh compared to last year data.
As per data released by respective state agriculture
department, chana acreage is recorded higher in
Maharashtra (13.16 lh Vs 10 lh), Andhra Pradesh (4.04 lh Vs
3.26lh) and Karnataka compared to last year planting but
slightly lower in Rajasthan (12.35 lh Vs 12.56 lh) and
Madhya Pradesh.
Higher production expected
In the first advance estimate for 2015-16, government has
set the target of 95 lakh tonnes of Chana production.
To achieve the target and to ensure remunerative prices to
farmers, government extended the duty free chana import
only until December while for other pulses it is extended
indefinitely except masur.
At present, the domestic shortfall in pulses output has led to
rise in retail prices forcing the government to take several
measures such as crack down on hoarding, increased
exports by government agencies and creating buffer stocks
to curb price rise.
Earlier, in fourth advanced estimate release in August
by Department of Agriculture & Cooperation (DAC)
production estimated at 71.7 lakh tonnes (lt) is less by 4.2 lt
estimated in third estimate in May.
The recent estimate for chana production is lowest in six
years i.e. since 2008-09.
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16*
LakhTonnes
Indian Chana/Gram Area (lakh hac.) & Production (Lakh Tonnes)
Area(lakh ha) Production (Lakh tn)
Source: GOI * Production target

Continue…
High Imports
During the year, domestic demand for chana was fed by
imports from Australia, Russia, Ethiopia and Myanmar but a
rise in imports failed to check the price as the imports were
expensive as rupee become weaker against dollar.
According to the latest government data, country has
imported about 3.07 lakh tonnes of chana in during first six
months of MY 2015-16, which was 1.29 lt last year same
period. During current marketing year, more than 1.3 lt of
chana imported from Australia while 1.22 lt imported from
Australia.
India imported about 4.19 lakh tonnes (lt) of chana in 2014-
15, an increase of 51.8 per cent compared to the quantity
imported in 2013-14.
Global Scenario
In Australia, during 2015, chickpea was planted in over 6.26
lakh hectares, which was over 70 per cent higher than the
area planted in 2014.
According to Pulse Australia, the increase in planting area is
mainly due to a strong rally in world prices is due to strong
requirement from India. The production in Australia
forecasted between 9-10 lakh tonnes, which was 475,900
last year.
The weather condition for chickpea production and
harvesting in Australia reported to be favorable. The harvest
of new season crop has already started and Pulse Australia
has pegged the harvest at 940,000 tonnes, while Abares, the
Australian government crop agency, forecasted at 990,000
tonnes.
Chickpea prices in Australia continuing to make new highs
and prices are reported at more than $900 a tonne as dry
weather threatens the Indian crop.
1.46
1.98
3.38
1.01 2.07
6.98
2.76
4.19
3.07
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16*
Source: Dept ofCommerce, GOI * Apr-Sep
Chana Imports(Lakh Tonnes) in India
Outlook
The outlook for chana during first quarter may be little
bearish due to steps taken by the government to check
hoarding and improving supplies by importing more chana.
Moreover, creation of buffer stock and good sowing acreage
in the top producing states may keep prices low.
With new season, arrivals are still three months away —
from March onwards. Until then, expensive imports,
hoarding of chana in foreign ports and falling stocks may
well support prices to some extent while big correction are
also possible if government initiated action against private
importing countries to hasten their shipping consignment.
In this condition, the price may touch a low of Rs. 4,200 per
quintal.
However, in the past, chana witness huge fluctuations in
prices depending upon weather phenomenon such as
unseasonal rainfall and drought conditions. However, still
there is short supply of the commodity as the domestic
demand fulfilled by the exports and any upside shock from
erratic weather during harvesting of Chan prices will pick up
after April 2016.
The upside movement will be stronger if there is any
unseasonal rains for the second consecutive year. From
June onwards, monsoon and world production scenario
would determine the market trend. NCDEX Chana April will
trade in the range of Rs 4,000-Rs 4,500 per quintal as these
factors play out.
Technical Levels for 2016
Contract Unit Support Resistance
NCDEX - Chana ₹/qtl 4200 / 3600 5,100 / 5, 500

This year soybean acreage increased by 6.35 lakh hectares
(lh) or 5.8 per cent compared to last year sowing area. In
the latest data released by Solvent Extractors Association of
India (SEA), the area under soybean cultivation is 116.3 lh in
the country compared to 109.34 lh last year.
However, uneven distribution of monsoon rains and attack
of pests in major part of crops planted in Madhya Pradesh is
likely to affect the production this year. Madhya Pradesh,
which is known as Soybean bowl of India, may produce 14.7
per cent lower at 44 lakh tonnes (lt) compared to 51.6 lt last
year according to Soybean Processors Association (SOPA).
While, Maharashtra and Rajasthan may produce 16 per cent
or 3.8 lt higher and 2.6 per cent or 40 per cent higher
production respectively compared to last year.
According to SOPA, soybean production in the country may
be down by about 4 per cent during 2015-16 to 86.4 lakh
tonnes, compared to previous years’ revised estimates of 90
lt. Although SOPA’s estimates stands much lower than the
farm ministry’s first advance estimates of 118.3 lakh tonnes
released in September. However, in the month of
November, Central Organization for Oil Industry and Trade
(COOIT) estimated soybean output lower at 72 lakh tonnes
in 2015-16 season against 91.70 lakh tonnes produced last
year.
Falling Soybean meal exports – higher soyoil imports
In 2015—16 fiscal, soy meal exports in the first eight
months hit a historical low of 55,889 tonnes in the first eight
months against 2.50 lt logged in the same period last year,
thus the decline of 77.7 per cent as per latest Solvent
Extractors Association (SEA). However, after falling for five
months in a row, Soy meal exports improved during Sep’15
and Nov’15 on month-on-month basis.
India has imported highest quantity of soybean oil, this year
due to its attractive price and higher level of soybean prices
in the country compared to world prices.
According to latest SEA report, imports of soyoil is reported
at 2.99 mt in 2014-15 compared to 1.95 mt previous year.
This record import of soyoil is keeping the prices under
pressure in domestic market.
Global Update
On the global front, two largest Soybean suppliers, i.e. US
and Brazil expected to produce a larger crop this year.
According to latest USDA report, global soybean production
is raised for 2015/16 and is now expected to be about 320.1
million tons (mt) compared to 319 mt last year.
In the U.S., soybean output is forecasted, 1.38 per cent
higher at 108.34 mt in 2015-16 compared to 106.9 mt last
year.
Oilseeds
Soybean
In 2015, Soybean prices witnessed a roller coaster
performance in the domestic but shown a negative trend
the global markets. Prices in the domestic market
registered nearly 10 per cent gains y-o-y while CBOT
soybean declined 13 per cent. Prices made a peak in the
month of May’15 due to reports of deficient rain by IMD
and declined sharply thereafter amid above average rains
and record soybean acreage in the domestic markets.
A sharp fall in the global soybean prices on expectations of
higher US soybean output also exerted downside pressure
on the soybean prices on CBOT.
In the month of August, the prices have touched years low
and then domestic prices rebounded sharply during Sep-
Oct’15 on reports of crop damage in Madhya Pradesh (MP),
major producing state, due to unseasonal rain and dryness
in some part of the state. Prolonged dryness during
September and excessive rains fears over crop yield
supported an upward movement in the soybean prices. In
the international markets however, the downward trend
continued on hopes of higher output in the US, Brazil and
Argentina.
It is expected that the soybean prices to fall, once new
season soybean is ready for harvest. However, during the
last quarter in 2015 i.e. harvesting season, prices increased
more than 5.3 per cent due to reports of lower production
on lack of monsoon rains and pest attack in soybean
growing areas. It is expected that the production may be
compensating through record sowing area this season in
Madhya Pradesh.
In the international markets however, the downward trend
continued on hopes of higher output in the US, Brazil and
Argentina.
High Area-lower Production
Above normal monsoon rainfall during start of monsoon
season (June-July) over main soybean planting states,
Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, helped in record planting.
850
870
890
910
930
950
970
990
1010
3000
3200
3400
3600
3800
4000
4200
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
NCDEX (Rs/Qtl) Cbot (Cents/Bushels)Source: Reuters
Monthly AverageSoybean Price-NCDEX & CBOT - 2015

Chinese government has announced its intention to reform
Yuan exchange rate determination, which will weaken the
Yuan exchange rate against dollar. This may lead to
expensive soybean import for Chinese soy processors from
US.
Outlook
The reports of sufficient carry forward stocks, record soyoil
import and poor export demand for the domestic soy meal
may put pressure on price during first quarter of 2016. We
expect the prices to move lower and touch Rs. 3,200 per
quintal. Presently, arrival of new season crop is putting
pressure on the prices due to subdued demand for crushing
from oil mills due to disparity in prices. Recently, oil mill
association has urged the central government to reduce
the import duty on oilseed crops from 30 per cent to five
per cent.
For the second quarter (Apr-Jun’16) onwards, price
direction will depending on Rabi oilseed production, export
demand for meal and monsoon forecast for kharif 2016. We
expect prices to move northwards during second half of
2016, on improved soya meal exports, dwindling stocks due
to good domestic consumption and dwindling supplies.
The International soybean prices, expected to remain
bearish on reports of record production for the second
consecutive year in U.S. and South America, which will
surge world soybean ending stocks in 2015-16, which is
highest for any year.
Any effect of El Nino and weather damage to the soybean
during the harvesting time in South America may be
positive for soybean prices. In case of upward shocks,
soybean prices may again touch Rs. 4,000 per quintal.
NCDEX - Soybean ₹/qtl 3,300 / 2,700 4,400 / 5,100
Continue…
Soybean exports expected to decline by 3.5 mt or 7 per
cent to 46.7 mt in 2015-16 compared to 50.2 mt last year
due to robust competition for soybean export from South
American countries. Soybean crushing is seeing increasing
by 0.46 mt to 51.4 mt compared to last year.
This year U.S. soya meal export might be down due to
expectation of restoration of Indian and Argentina
shipments in 2015-16. The US demand for soyoil may rise
due to increased use for biodiesel in the country and the
export also seen increasing by 14.3 per cent to 1.04 mt
compared to 0.91 mt in 2014-15. The anticipated increase
in U.S. soybean supplies for 2015-16 and lower export
demand boosts the forecast of season-ending stocks by
4.92 mt compared to last year to 82.58 mt.
Brazil, the second largest soybean producing country, is
estimated to produce about 100 mt in 2015/16 as
compared to 96.2 mt in 2014-15, as per latest USDA
reports. Brazil's 2015-16 soybean exports estimated at 57
mt to overtake the U.S. trade and expand its international
trade to about 44 per cent.
Argentina, the world’s third largest producer, produced
61.4 mt in 2014-15 and forecasted to produce 57 mt in
2015-16 on concern about yields. According to USDA,
currently, Argentina is holding maximum stock of soybean
at 40.8 per cent of world soybean stocks. Brazil and China
holds about 24.29 per cent and 23.36 per cent
respectively. Argentina soybean exports expected to get a
boost, as the new president has reduced the export tax on
soybeans.
In 2015-16, the production in China forecasted to decline
by 7 per cent to 11.5 mt due to lower planting area. The
export of soybean by China expected to increase by 2.15
mt to 80.5 mt due to lower domestic production and
limited rapeseed availability from foreign suppliers.
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16*
Soybean -World Production, Consumption and Ending Stocks (mt)
Ending Stocks Production (mt) Comsumption
Source :USDA
< Production
< Consumption
EndingStock >
*Forecast

Mustard seed
In 2015, the prices of mustard seed close at same levels
seen at the beginning of the year. However, mustard seed
prices witnessed a bullish trend from Feb’15 and surged
about 56 per cent from its low of Rs. 3,275 per quintal in
Feb’15 to touch its high of over 5,100 levels in Oct’15.
Mustard seed is the second largest produced oilseeds
grown in the Rabi season. Sowing takes place during Nov
–Dec and harvesting is done during Feb–Mar. Thus, as per
the seasonal price patterns, mustard seed prices tend to
decline during the period January to March and bottom
out in the month of April.
In the year 2015, mustard seed did follow seasonality
pattern and witnessed a steep decline in the prices
Jan’15. However, the prices surged during harvesting
season due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Mar’15
in north India especially in Rajasthan. The prices have
stabilized at higher levels during Jun-Aug’15 period due to
reports of below normal rains in the country.
Earlier, during September – October, the prices have firm
up substantially on concern over production for second
consecutive year due to below normal rains in monsoon.
However, prices witnessed steady fall after touching all-
time high in Oct’15. Prices slide more than 16 per cent
due to late monsoon showers in mustard growing states,
which increases chance of normal sowing. Imposing stock
limits on oilseeds by Rajasthan government also
pressurizes prices. Sowing picked up pace in the month of
November and soil conditions are favorable for planting
in Rajasthan. As a result, prices have again started
declining on hopes of better output in 2015-16 season.
Sowing Progress
Sowing for the new season mustard crop has started and
soil conditions are favorable for sowing. As per the latest
Solvent Extractors of Association (SEA) circular, as on 18
th December, 2015, mustard seed planted on 59.4 lakh
hectares (lh), which is 6.75 per cent or 4.30 lh lower
compared to 63.7 lakh hectares during same period last
3200
3400
3600
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Source: Reuters
Monthly Average Prices of Mustard (Rs per Quintal) - NCDEX
year.
During 2015-16 rabi season, though prices were at record
highs, the sowing was delayed by more than a fortnight due
to high temperature and lack of soil moisture. Sowing
progress in the country was almost 50 per cent less during
mid-November, than the area sown last year but in Dec’15 it
has picked up.
Rajasthan is the largest mustard seed producing state in
India accounting for over 40 per cent of acreage followed by
Uttar Pradesh (11.42%), Madhya Pradesh (6.63 %) and
Punjab (5.55%). In Rajasthan, it is planted in 23.7 lh on Dec
17, compared to 24.34 lh sown last year same time.
Similarly, as per SEA, area under mustard seed in Uttar
Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh is less by 1.34 lh and 0.73 lh at
respectively compared to last year.
Declining Production
The acreage and production mainly depends on the
monsoon rains. As per fourth Advance estimate, in 2014-15,
mustard production pegged at 63.1 lakh tonnes (lt), a drop
of 20 percent from 78.8 lt produced in 2013-14. The
production of mustard seed is declining since last three
years mainly due to erratic weather.
Last year, mustard output fall to record low as farmer’s sown
mustard crop on a smaller area than the previous season
due to lower price realization in earlier years. Last year,
domestic mustard production forecasted at 57.4 lt, down 12
per cent compared to last year, according to SEA. In its first
advanced estimates, Department of Agriculture, GoI, set a
target of 81.09 lakh tonnes for 2015-16.
26.20
7.25
6.50
4.80
4.80
3.00
2.85
Production -2014-15 (lakh tonnes)
Rajasthan
Punjab/Haryana
UP
MP
Eastern India
WB
Gujarat
Bihar
Chhatishgarh
65.9
67.0
65.0
57.4
54.0
50
55
60
65
70
75
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16* F
Area and Production of Rape/Mustard seed
Production (Lakh Tonnes) Area (Lakh Hac)
Source- SEA

Continue…
Lower Meal exports
As far as the trade in mustard seed is concern, India is
among the major exporters of mustard meal. India
exported 10.67 lakh tonnes of mustard meal in FY 2014-15
and in the current FY 2015-16 so far Indian mustard meal
exports reported at 2.95 lakh tonnes. Thus, exports of
mustard meal hit a historical low in the first eight months of
current financial year against 7.66 lt in the same period last
year. India exported meal to South East Asian countries like
South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Indonesia.
Global output to fall
The main rapeseed production countries are European
Union (EU), Canada, China, and India. EU produced more
than 32 per cent of world rapeseed-mustard. Last season,
dry weather during the sowing season may reduce the EU’s
rapeseed crop following a record harvest last year.
According to the latest estimates by USDA report in Dec’15,
world mustard seed output is going to fall for the second
consecutive year, led by sharp decline in production in the
European Union (EU). Global production is likely to decline
to 67.5 million tonnes (mt), compared to 71.9 mt in 2014-
15.
In 2015-16, EU production estimated to 21.55 mt, less by
2.9 mt or 13.4 per cent less compared to last year
production. It is expected that there will be higher yield in
France and United Kingdom. Mustard or rapeseed, the main
oilseed for vegetable oil and biodiesel production, has
affected due to lack of rain in all top four EU producers --
Germany, France, Britain and Poland.
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
1,00,000
1,20,000
1,40,000
1,60,000
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Mustard meal Export (MT) comparision
2014-15 2015-16Source : SEA
55
60
65
70
75
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
World Production (mt)
Source : USDA
China has change its policy regarding subsidy in mustard by
eliminating its national floor prices, which could result in a
35 percent cut in China’s mustard acres in 2015-16 season.
China will produce 300,000 tonnes less mustard this year to
14.1 mt and imports forecasted to rise 400,000 tonnes to
4.5 mt in 2015-16.
However, in Canada, the production of canola, the mustard
variant, forecasted to increase by 4.8 per cent at 17.2 mt,
compared to 16.4 mt in 2014-15. The absence of a killing
frost until late September also helped later sown crops to
develop well.
Outlook
Government has made a sizable hike of Rs 250 in the
Minimum Support Price (MSP) of mustard seed to Rs. 3,350
per quintal. Weather during the next two month shall be
crucial for growth of mustard crop. Favorable weather will
boost output and keep prices under check and vice-versa.
Arrivals of mustard seed shall commence in the month of
Feb-Mar’16 and thus in case of normal supply situation,
mustard seed prices may remain under downside pressure
and expected to bottom out in the month of Jan-Mar’15 in
case of favorable weather conditions. Thus, buying at
support price levels around Rs 4,000 per quintal is advisable
from the longer-term perspective. Meal exports in current
financial has not picked up due to higher prices and lack of
Chinese import despite lifting ban in May.
Mustard price in 2016 will depend mainly on the weather
conditions during harvesting season and export demand for
mustard meal. It is also important to track movement in
other oilseeds and edible oil prices, currency movement,
monsoon scenario etc. for a clearer trend.
NCDEX -
Mustard Seed ₹/qtl 3,700 / 3,300 4,600 / 5,100

In order to reduce the financial burden on sugar mills,
government announces to pay production-linked crop
subsidies of Rs. 45 per tonnes to farmer. This subsidy is
application to those mills who export more than 50 per
cent allotted export quota.
At present, the central government levies a sugar cess of
Rs 24 a quintal but now Sugar Cess (Amendment) Bill was
amended so that government can raise the cess to Rs
200. Earlier it was Rs 25 per quintal. It is expected that
the government would raise cess by Rs 100 per quintal to
collect Rs 2,500 crore to fund the sugar production
incentive of Rs 4.50 per quintal directly to farmers.
Domestic glut to reduce
To reduce the supply glut in country, in Sep’15,
government made compulsory for sugar producers to
ramp up exports of at least 4 million tonnes in the current
crushing season. According to Indian Sugar Mills
Association (ISMA), mills have so far signed deals to
export more than 600,000 tonnes of sugar, out of this
nearly 300,000 tonnes sugar has already been dispatched.
ISMA is targeting 1-1.3 mt of white sugar and 2 mt of raw
sugar.
In its first advance estimate for sugar season 2015-16,
Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), has estimated
production of 270 lakh tonnes (lt), 10 lt lower from its
preliminary estimates released in July 2015. It is expected
that, the supply of sugar for current year would be about
361 lakh tonnes after adding 91 lt carry over stocks on
Oct. 1, 2015.
Government is further trying to improve trade access for
Indian mills in the South Asian Association for Regional
Cooperation (SAARC), such as Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
World Sugar Deficit and unfavorable weather
The sugar market is forecast to have its first global supply
deficit in six years in 2015-16. The International Sugar
Organisation's (ISO) latest projections show 1.15% lower
production compared to last year, at 169 million tonnes
(mt). This fall in production expected to coincide with a
2.2 per cent rise in global sugar consumption at over
172.9 mt, bringing the shortage to an estimated 3.5 mt.
32
37
42
47
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15#
2015-16*
Sugar Ending stocks (Lakh Tonnes)
Source: ISMA
Soft –Commodities
Sugar
In 2015, prices have touched lowest levels in six years in
Jul’15 and then recovered quite steeply during the second
half. Overall, the prices closed higher by 16.5 per cent. After
falling about 18 per cent during first half, Sugar Prices
climbed around 50.16 per cent in the second half of 2015.
During two quarter (Jan-Mar & Apr-Jun), sugar prices
decline due to higher production of sugar for last four years
and lower exports due to glut in international market. The
sugar prices drop from Rs 2,760 per quintal to Rs. 2,150
levels on NCDEX.
However, during the third and fourth quarter, the sugar
prices have surged and reached higher levels in Dec’15. This
was due to steady buying by the stockists, fearing sugar
deficit and forecast of higher exports potential as some
positive steps taken by the government to reduce sugar glut
in the country. Moreover, reports on lower production due
to below normal monsoon and provided monetary benefits
to the sugar mills may be bullish for sugar.
Internationally, the prices have also gained over the period
as International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasted that
the global sugar deficit in 2015-2016 & 2016-17.
This deficiency will be due to the strong El Nino weather
phenomenon, which is going to affect production forecasts
in India, Thailand, South Asia and Central America.
Government initiatives
Recently, centre has approved the ethanol blending up to
10 per cent in petrol from earlier 5 per cent. Thus, sugar
mills expected to double the supply of ethanol to as much
as 1.3 billion litres in 2015/16 to fulfil 10 per cent blending
target. This will reduce the production of sugar by mills, as
sugarcane juice will divert for ethanol production. Earlier, to
improve the financial positions of sugar mills, government
remove the excise duty on ethanol.
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Ncdex (Rs/Qtl) ICE-US (Cents/pound)Source: Reuters
Monthly Average Sugar Price -NCDEX & ICE

Outlook
In 2016, sugar is looking bullish, as world is moving into sugar
deficit situation. However, as per the latest ISMA press
release, sugar output in India rose about 7.0 per cent in the
ongoing season’s first quarter (October-December) over the
same period a year before. Sugar mills produced 79.85 lakh
tonnes of sugar, on December 31. Last year sugar mills had
produced 74.95 lakh tonnes (lt).
Going forward the production of sugar may decline as India
and Brazil may produce more ethanol from the sugar cane
crush. The production cut and government policies in favor of
ethanol usages in India and Brazil may provide much needed
upside shock to sugar prices, in a scenario of global glut. Rising
ethanol demand in Brazil following higher taxes for gasoline
may be a bullish sign for the sugar as the mills may produce
more ethanol than sugar.
Moreover, the prospects for strong El Nino could provide the
direction to sugar prices as it is affecting the production in
Brazil, India and Thailand due to extreme weather related
activity like floods, droughts or other events.
Favorable government policy decision for the sugar sector, to
reduce burden on sugar mills by paying directly to farmers,
increasing cess on sugar and mandating ethanol blending from
5 per cent to 10 per cent in petrol may surge sugar prices from
the current levels to touch Rs 3,500 per quintal or more in
2016.
NCDEX - Sugar M
Grade ₹/qtl 2,800 / 2,400 3,500 / 4,200
Continue…
This year, world is experiencing the strongest El Nino since
1997. El Nino weather pattern usually leads to dry
weather across Asia & European Union and bring heavy
rains & floods in South America. Drought has already
begun to threaten production in number two exporter
Thailand and top consumer India as weather department
across the world confirm the return of the El Nino
phenomenon.
Top producer, Brazil, is also experiencing wet weather,
which effected the cane crushing and reduces sugar levels.
The consumption demand from the top importers - China,
Indonesia, EU and UAE also expected to increase as it is
estimated the global output in 2016-17 forecasted to
shortfall is at 7.81 mt.
According to latest USDA report in Nov’15, global sugar
production for 2015-16 forecast at 172 mt, down by 3 mt
compared to last year production. In Brazil, the top
producer, forecasted to produce 35 mt, down 950,000
tonnes as majority of sugarcane is expected to convert
into ethanol due to increase of the mandated ethanol
blend in gasoline and excess rains has cut the sucrose
content in sugar cane.
Dry weather in India is threatening to cut output. In 2015-
16, sugar output in India estimated at 27 mt in 2015-16
against 28.30 mt last year as per ISMA. However, SGS SA
estimates only 23 mt this year due to below normal
rains. In Thailand, the production estimated at same levels
as last year at 10.8 mt but forecasted less for next year
due to dryness.
Moreover, production in European Union is expected to
drop by 650,000 tonnes to 16.1 mt due to lower planting
and dry weather. Similarly, China, the biggest importer,
set for its smallest crop in a decade at 10.6 mt, down
400,000 tons due to decline in area.
150
160
170
180
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15#
2015-16*
World Sugar Production and Consumption
(Million tonnes)
Source: USDA #Estimate *Forcast

Lower output estimated
The total cotton output in the country is estimated to be 362
lakh bales for the 2015-16, which began on October 1 as per
latest forecast by cotton association of India (CAI). Current year
production is lower by more than 20 lakh bales.
The total output for the cotton season 2014-15 stood at 382.75
lakh bales. Lower production in cotton is due to erratic
monsoon rains over the top cotton producing areas, crop
damage in the northern region due to the whitefly attack and
lower sown area.
In 2015-16, the area under cotton in the country was lower by
about 7.5 per cent, as per the government data. Cotton was
planted in about 117.1 lakh hectares (lh) in the country this
kharif, compared to last year sowing of 126.6 lh.
The acreage in Gujarat dipped about 8 per cent to 27.6 lh
compared to 30 lh last year similarly, acreage in Maharashtra
also declined to 38 lh compare to last year’s area by 4 lh.
CAI has also estimated reduction in consumption of cotton in
the country during the cotton season 2015-16.
The projected balance sheet drawn by CAI estimated total
cotton supply for the season 2015-16 at 454.65 lakh bales
while the domestic consumption is estimated at 318 lakh bales,
thus leaving an available surplus of 136.65 lakh bales.
Improved domestic Exports
India’s cotton exports expected to increase about 26 per cent
to about 68 lakh bales in 2015-16 as per latest USDA report in
Dec’15. In 2014-15, India exports 53.7 lakh bales.
According to industry sources, India exported around 30 lakh
bales (170 kg is one bale) of cotton export during October-
December 2015 while last year at the same period, total export
were around 22 lakh bales. This year Pakistan has emerged as
the largest buyer with the share of about 46.6 per cent
exported from India.
325
353
342
398
390
362
110
112
114
116
118
120
122
124
126
128
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16*
Production (Lakh Bales)
Source: CAI, Dept of Agriculture
Yearwise Cotton Area & Production
Cotton
In 2015, cotton prices have been on roller coaster and the
price of cotton traded on Multi Commodity Exchange
(MCX) closed higher by 5.17 per cent. During the first
quarter, cotton moved lower by 2.74 per cent on domestic
glut due to limited export demand.
In Q2, cotton prices increase 2.86 per cent on reports on
El Niño phenomenon, which results in below normal
rainfall for 2015 monsoon coupled with reports of lower
sowing in the US and China coupled with weather related
risks in the US.
In Q3, good start to monsoon rains in cotton growing
states and forecast of subdued export demand cause
prices to move 2.35 per cent lower. The final quarter of
the year saw a rebound in the price of cotton, which rose
by 5.17% over the final three months of the year on
reports of crop damage in Punjab and Haryana due to pest
attack and ginners and textile mills showed interest in
fresh buying of fine quality cotton.
Cotton traded as low as 13,900 per bale and as high as
16,800 per bale during 2015. Cotton closed at Rs. 16,490
per bale on December 31, 2015 cents per pound.
In the International market, the prices have witnessed a
steady fall since July due to estimates of rising global
cotton inventories coupled with limited growth of world
cotton consumption. However, during last two month of
year, ICE Mar’16 contract recovered a little as exports
sales remains high coupled with the forecasts of freezing
rains in key areas of Texas, the top-producing state.
Earlier, during the first half, the prices have witnessed a
steady rise. The uptrend seen mainly due to larger-than-
expected cut in world cotton planting intentions, reports
on consumption outstripping production for next season
and dwindling deliverable stocks of high-grade cotton
stocks in world market.
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
14500
14700
14900
15100
15300
15500
15700
15900
16100
16300
16500
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
MCX-Cotton (R/bales) ICE Cotton (Cents/Pound)Source: Reuters
Monthly Average Cotton Price- MCX & ICE - 2015

ICAC further forecasted that the world imports projected to
decline in 2015-16 by 4% to 7.3 mt. Imports outside of China
are forecast to increase by 6% to 6.1 mt, this rise may not
offset the decline in China’s imports, which are expected to
decrease by 34% to 1.2 mt.
Outlook
The cotton production is expected to decline this season
despite higher acreage because of erratic rainfall in top
producing states – Gujarat and Maharashtra. Moreover,
heavy pest attack in Northern India especially in Punjab and
Haryana to trim output.
Recently, Gujarat government declared a bonus of Rs 110
per 20 kg for cotton farmers over and above the minimum
support price (MSP). Farmers who sell their crop to
the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) will entitle to get the
bonus. The prices of the cotton have shown a firming trend
with the markets on anticipation that other states might
increase their prices.
This year improved exports to Pakistan, Bangladesh and
Vietnam also keeping the price supported at higher levels.
Prices have moved above the MSP (minimum support price)
level in most states and farmers are selling to exporters and
ginners.
The price outlook for cotton in 2016 may surge when the
arrivals decreased in the physical market during the second
quarter. The revival of export demand from the country to
the Asian countries and dwindling carryover stocks may
support the uptrend.
Moreover, effect of El Nino phenomenon, deteriorating
China cotton reserves and surge in consumption demand
and lower estimate of world production from world market
may provide upside shock to the cotton prices. We expect
the prices to increase and touch Rs. 18,000 per bale next
year.
MCX - Cotton ₹/bale 15800 / 15,000 17,500 / 19,000
NCDEX- Kapas ₹/20 kg 820 / 740 950 /1,050
Continue…
This year cotton production in Pakistan forecasted to
reduce by more than 30 per cent to 10.85 million bales
against initial estimates of 15.50 million bales due to heavy
rains in June-July 2015, especially in the cotton belt of
Punjab and increased pest attack of whitefly and pink
bollworm.
Global updates
Currently, cotton planting in Southern hemisphere – Brazil
and Australia is going on and continue through start of
2016. According to International Cotton Advisory
Committee (ICAC), cotton area in Australia is projected to
more than double to 300,000 hectares on the other hand
area in Brazil is expected to decrease 4% to 952,000
hectares. Production in the Southern Hemisphere usually
accounts for 8 to 10% of total world production, but this
share expected to increase to 11% in 2015-16.
As per the latest World Agriculture Supply and Demand
Estimates (WASDE) report released by the USDA, World
cotton production in 2015/16 is forecast at 22.58 million
tonnes (mt), 13 percent below last season, as lower area
combined with a reduced yield push the production to its
lowest since 2009/10.
Cotton production for the top two producers—India and
China—is projected to account for 51 per cent of the world
production forecasts at 6.21 and 5.30 mt, respectively.
Cotton production is expected drop of 19 per cent in China
and 20 per cent in the US this year compared to last years’
production. The decline is dramatic for China, as production
forecast to fall 1.24 mt in 2015-16 to 5.3 mt while U.S.
cotton production reduced to 2.84 mt, 0.71 mt below the
2014 crop.
Moreover, ICAC predicted that the though cotton
consumption expected to overtake production in 2015-16,
the global supply will remain abundant. World stocks are
forecasted at 20.6 mt, 58% of which will be in China at the
end of 2015/16.
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15*
2015-16**
Source: AgricultureMinistry
Cotton Exports (Million Bales)- India
* GOI estimate till April 15 **Projected by USDA

Spices
Jeera
Jeera ended the year with a loss of 7.2 per cent mainly due
to subdued export demand amid lower quality production.
Jeera prices tanked about 23 per cent from its high of over
Rs. 18,700 per quintal in May’15 to close the year at Rs.
14,400 levels.
In 2015, jeera prices have touched all time high during peak
arrival season on fear over production concerns due to
unseasonal rains in Gujarat and Rajasthan during Mar-
Apr’15. The prices have peaked during May’15 due to
limited supplies good quality jeera. The exchange quality
jeera quoted at higher levels.
After attaining higher levels, the prices falls steeply during
Jun-Jul’15 due to limited export demand from India due to
availability of lower quality jeera at relatively higher prices.
Bright start to monsoon rain in Jun’15 too put pressure on
jeera price.
Despite this fall, the prices were higher by more than 30 per
cent, as compared to the start of the sowing season in
Nov’14. The quality of jeera in 2015 was down due to
unseasonal rains during the harvesting season in March.
Arrival of new season jeera from Syria and Turkey during
September and October is keeping the prices down.
Jeera prices have recovered a little during Aug-Spr’15 on
forecast of deficient rains in the country, which may affect
sowing. However, the recovery was short lived; due to
above, rains in Gujarat and Rajasthan during the second
half of September. This increased the hope for normal
sowing potential for rabi 2015-16 season.
Sowing Progress and Arrivals
Gujarat, the top cumin producing state, has planted more
cumin until Dec 28, 2015 compared to last year sowing
area. Jeera is planted about 3.46 per cent more area at
2,68,400 hectares compared to 2,59,400 hectares last year
same time.
14000
14500
15000
15500
16000
16500
17000
17500
18000
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Source: Reuters
Monthly Average Closing Price- Jeera (Rs/Quintal)- NCDEX
In 2015, jeera arrivals in Gujarat markets lower by 230 per
cent. As per Agmarknet data, in Gujarat about 1.28 lt of
jeera arrived during the year 2015 compared to 4.25 lt last
year.
Decline production and exports
In Gujarat, the jeera production declined by a record 43 per
cent during 2014-15 as compared to previous year. As per
final estimates for 2014-15 for Gujarat State, production is
pegged at 1.97 lakh tonnes (lt) in 2014-15, compared to last
years’ production of 3.46 lakh tonnes. The production in
Rajasthan also affected due to untimely rainfall in March.
As per Government data, about 2.41 lakh hectares of cumin
crop affected in Rajasthan.
India is the world’s largest jeera exporter and exports are at
all-time high in 2014-15 despite higher prices. According to
Dept of Commerce data, the export of jeera during first 6
month of 2015-16 (Apr-Sep) is 44,140 tonnes, which is
lower as compared to last year same period. Jeera (cumin)
exports have been 1.55 lt in 2014-15. Jeera exports from
India are likely to decline by about 40-45 per cent to around
85,000-1,00,000 tonnes during 2015-16 compared to an
estimated exports of around 1.55 lt last year.
Outlook
This year there is good sowing progress of jeera in Gujarat
and Rajasthan due to good weather conditions but lower
soil moisture content may affect the overall yield. In the
current year, the prices were above last 3 years prices but it
is in continue downtrend since May might support further
fall in prices due to lower demand from the stockists and
exporters coupled with higher sowing.
Jeera may trade lower during first quarter of next year
under normal conditions of steady supplies of commodity in
the domestic market. Jeera NCDEX for Mar’16 delivery is
expected to touch Rs 12,500 per quintal. Further price
movement will depend on the export demand for jeera and
weather during main growing states. Any weather related
disturbance might provide upside shock to the prices later
during and after the harvesting season.
NCDEX - Jeera ₹/qtl 12,200 / 10,000 17,200 / 20,000

Turmeric
Turmeric closes higher by 4.6 per cent in 2015, which
surged about 46.8 per cent since its lows in Jul’15. Prices
have been on an upswing in the second part of 2015 on
concern over production due to erratic rainfall during
monsoon, good export demand and arrival of good quality
turmeric.
Moreover, reports of lower sowing due to water stress
conditions in major turmeric growing state and demand
from spices industries, pharmaceuticals companies and
food sector continuously supported the prices at higher
levels. However, during Sep’15, prices declined by about 6
per cent due to late surge in monsoon rains in Southern
Peninsula and off loading of second quality turmeric by the
stockists.
During the start of the year, the prices were in downtrend
during the first three months due to good supplies of new
season crop coupled with the want for the upcountry
demand. The prices made a temporary pause at Rs 8,000
per quintal levels in Mar’15 and consolidated sideways in
the range of 8,000 - 8,200 levels for about 3 months -
March, April and May on reports of the lower slow arrivals,
falling quality stocks and concerns over crop loss due to
cyclone ‘Hudhud’ that hit Andhra Pradesh in October.
However, prices again started to fall during the period May-
Jul’15, dropped to its lower levels at Rs. 7,200 in Jul’15 from
Rs. 8000 due to muted export, and limited up country
demand for medium quality turmeric.
Acreage affected
This year during the peak-sowing period, moisture stress in
observed in Telangana, Karnataka and Maharashtra as the
intensity of monsoon rain decreased during July and
August.
As per latest sowing data from various state departments,
turmeric sowing in Andhra Pradesh is at 15,753 hectares,
increase over last years’ acreage but well below the normal
sowing area of over 19,000 hectares while in Telangana,
turmeric is planted in 40,823 hectares, 17 per cent lower
than the normal sowing area.
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Source: Reuters, Angel Commodity
Monthly Average Prices of Turmeric (Rs per Quintal) - NCDEX
Similarly, in Maharashtra and Karnataka the acreage
dropped by about 25-30 per cent to 7,000 hectares and
12,000 hectares respectively. However, due to better
irrigation facilities and sufficient rains, acreage in Tamilnadu
increased by about 10-12 per cent compared to last year
acreage to over 50,000 hectares. However, the anticipated
damage due to the prolonged wet weather conditions in
Tamil Nadu expected to have an impact on the crop
production in turmeric growing regions.
Steady Exports
This year Spice board has set a target of only 80,000 tonnes
due to high domestic consumption and expectation of
lower output. Last year, country exported 90,000 tonnes of
turmeric compared to 78,000 tonnes in 2013-14.
According to department of commerce, turmeric exports
during first six months of 2015-16 recorded at 50,916
tonnes, which is at same level as last years’ export.
Outlook
In past two month, turmeric futures contract traded on
National Commodity and Derivative Exchange (NCDEX) has
surged more than 14.6 per cent to Rs. 9,780 per quintal
from Rs. 8,532 levels due to good upcountry demand for
good quality turmeric.
The bullish trend in turmeric may continue on expectation
of tight supply-demand situation as the carryover stocks are
diminishing over the years due to lower production trend.
Further, reported damage of the standing crop due to a
long dry spell in Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra as well as
the anticipated damage due to the prolonged wet weather
conditions in Tamil Nadu.
Since the starting of sowing season, the uptrend in the
turmeric price is intact and we expect prices to touch Rs.
12,000 per quintal on limited supplies and improved
domestic demand as new season crop will arrive only next
year.
NCDEX -
Turmeric ₹/qtl 9,000 / 7,500 11,000 / 12,500

Agri Commodities Annual Report 2016

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Agri Commodities Annual Report 2016