1. Current situation
The dry season farming is still on-going across the country, though largely in the northern part of the
countrywhere irrigationfacilitiesare available.Some earlyharvestshave beenmade andstillinprogress,
while late cultivatedplotsare yettobe harvested.However,theoverall observationisthatthe dry-season
farming participationin this year is well below normal due to lack of inputs subsidy to farmers and also
the lowlevel of waterinthe irrigationcanals.Asa result,the foodsuppliestothe marketsisinadequate,
consideringthe highdemandforfoodbythe poorhouseholdswhohave exhaustedtheirhouseholdfood
stocks and now access food through market purchase.
The weakening value of the Nigerian currency (NGN) which now exchanged for about NGN325 to a US
Dollar at the parallel market has also increased the purchasing power of the neighbouring
consumers/tradersfromNigerrepublic,ChadandCameroon.Thusthe demandthroughthe cross-border
has increasedtremendously,therebyputtingpressure onthe little suppliesof fooditemsavailable inthe
marketparticularlyinthe Sahelianpartsof the country.Alsoaside the consumersdemandwhichisonthe
increase,the industrialdemandlocallyparticularlyformaize inthe poultryindustryhasalso increasedas
there are more people involvedinpoultryproductioninpreparationforthe Eastercelebrationwhenthe
demand for poultry birds also increases.
Because of this opposite behavior in demand and supply of food items across the major markets, the
prices of all major food groups have continued to increase when compared to all base indicators: last
month,price asat January2015 andthe 5 yeartypical average prices.The same trendisobserve forboth
the surplus and the deficit markets.
Example the price of maize has increased both in the surplus northern markets and also at the deficit
southernmarkets.Price forwhite maize increasedbyabout 11, 8, 10, 22, 7, 14, 5, 5, 28, 8, 18, 10 and10
percent in Biu, Damaturu, Dandume, Giwa, Gombe, Gujungu, Dodoru, Ibadan, Dawanau, Kaura,
Maiduguri, Mubi and Saminaka markets respectively compared to last month of December 2015. The
increasedlocal demandforconsumptionandthe demandatthe cross-borderhascontinuetoputpressure
on the prices.Whencomparedtothe price asat January2015, the price changesseems evenveryhighat
the surplusmarkets:31,32, 33 and51 percentrespectivelyatMubi,Biu,Dandume,andGiwamarkets.At
Bodija market in Ibadan which is a deficit market, the white maize price increased by 5% to last month,
33% to last yearand by 7 percentto 5 yearaverage prices.The driverof the increasedprice inMubi was
attributed to a reverse flow in maize supply, where instead of typical maize flow from Cameroon to
Nigeria,itis nowthe otherway round as a maize processingindustryhasbeencitedin a border townin
the North of Cameroon.
Likewise the price of milletincreasedtypicallyacrossmost markets.It increasedinmarkets such as Aba,
Damaturu, Dandume,Giwa,Gujungu,Dodoru,Dawanau, Kaura, Maiduguri and Mubi by about 7, 4, 2, 1,
5, 8, 36, 3, 13, and 6 percent respectively comparedto last month. Though the price remainedstable in
some markets in the North-East like Gombe and Potiskom, this was due to disruptions still affecting the
market as the insurgents continue to attack the markets in the region.
Despite the late sorghum harvests in the month of December to January, the pressure in the markets
continue to imply on the price. The price of brown sorghum increased in most deficit markets such as
Dandume,Giwa,Gujungu,Gwandu and Dawanaumarket in Kano respectively, by about 16, 29, 8, 5 and
23 percent. Increased prices are also observed when price was compared to price as at January 2015 in
the same markets. Though stable prices were observed in the North-East markets (Biuand Damaturu),
whichare home for sorghumproduction,itis howevernoticedthatthe price of sorghum inDamaturu is

2. about27 percenthigherthanthe price inthe previousyear.Soalsothe sorghumprice declinedbyabout
25% in Ibadan, but the price is higher by 36 percent compared to previous year.
Similarly,imported rice price alsoincreased byabout15, 2, 2, 3, 22 and 46 percentinDamaturu,Gombe,
Dodoru,Kaura,Maiduguri and Mubi marketsrespectively.Thisisdue toa weakenedcurrencyintermsof
FOREX,thoughthe officialexchange rate remainsatNGN197toa US Dollar,butitiscostlieratthe parallel
markets. Equally, cowpea prices also increased by 6, 1, 12, 12, 5, 27, 5, 14, 7 and 4 percent in Aba,
Damaturu, Dandume, Giwa, Gombe, Gujungu, Dodoru, Ibadan, Kaura and Mubi markets respectively.
Asper tuberswhichare surplusinthe South,yellow gari decreases inbothsurplusanddeficitproduction
areassuch as Biu,Damaturu,Dandume,Dodoru,Ibadan,andMubi marketswithabout11,32, 1, 1, 1, and
6 percentrespectively. Yamprice alsoincrease generallyacrossmarkets by about 1, 1, 1, 16, 12, 49, 4, 8,
7, 7 and 8 percent in Biu, Damaturu, Gombe, Gujungu, Ibadan, Dawanau, Kaura, Lagos, Maiduguri and
Saminaka markets respectively.
Similarhighprice changestrendare alsoobservedinmostmarketsinthe conflictareasof the northeast,
although nominal prices continued to remain higher relative to other parts of the country: North-west,
North-Central and the Southern markets. This is mainly attributable to persisting market disruption,
couple with recent attacks and bombings by the insurgents in parts of the region, leading to restricted
market functioning and increase risks along the trade routes.
Outlook
The harvests from the remaining dry-season farming will be available sooner than later at the markets,
but this will not have much impact on the market supply considering the anticipated level of demand.
Demand will far outweigh the market supply as more households will access food through market
purchase only. Also the insistence of the GoN not to devalue the currency will further give more
purchasingpowerto the neighbouringconsumersinNigerandChad republicwhowill be more active at
the bordermarkets.As such the pricesof stapleswill continue to increase relatively through March 2016
in most parts of the country. Market supplies and prices will follow normal seasonal trend in Northern
areas not affected by conflict. Food will also flow as usual from surplus to deficit production areas.
Meanwhile, in the Northeast region, the planned reconstruction of shelter for the displaced persons if
actualized will encourage the IDPs to return to their communities. If happened, trade and market
functioning will improve, leading to improved demand in a low supply situation. This will result in an
earlier price increase at a level higher than normal. Institutional purchases during March/April as usual
will lead to increased market demand and increased foodprices. Maize demand by poultryfarmers will
also continue increasing leading to staple price increase in the outlook period.