IRAN: INTERACTION OF ARABIAN—ANATOLIAN---EURASIAN PLATES
Iran has a long history of destructive earthquakes, which have left at least126,000 dead during the 20 th and 21st centuries.
A DISASTER is ------ the set of failures that overwhelm thecapability of a community to respondwithout external help when threecontinuums: 1) people, 2) community(i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, andsocial constructs), and 3) complexevents (e.g., earthquakes, cyclones,..)intersect at a point in space and time.
Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness,joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.
THE REASONS ARE . . .• The community is UN- PREPARED for what will likely happen
THE REASONS ARE . . .• When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure that are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards will be LOST.
THE REASONS ARE . . .• The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for concerted local, national, regional, and international actions.
THE REASONS ARE . . .• The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND to the full spectrum of emergency situations that can occur.
THE REASONS ARE . . .• The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCEALL EARTH- QUAKES BUILDING CODES AND LIFELINE STANDARDS ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISK HAZARDS EXPOSURE RISK VULNERABILITY LOCATION
EARTHQUAKE RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK •HAZARDS •INVENTORY RISK •VULNERABILITY UNACCEPTABLE RISK •LOCATION QUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE DATA BASES IRAN’S AND INFORMATION COMMINITIES POLICY OPTIONS •PREPAREDNESSHAZARDS: •PROTECTIONGROUND SHAKINGGROUND FAILURE •FORECASTS/SCENARIOSSURFACE FAULTINGTECTONIC DEFORMATION •EMERGENCY RESPONSETSUNAMI RUN UP •RECOVERY andAFTERSHOCKS RECONSTRUCTION
CAUSES OF DAMAGE INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE) IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATIONEARTHQUAKES AND PLAN “DISASTER FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OFLABORATORIES” UTILITIES LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS INATTENTION TO NON- STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCEALL EARTH- QUAKES PREPAREDNESS FOR THE LIKELY GROUND SHAKING IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
WHAT WILL HAPPEN?EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS (AKA THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
SEISMICITY TECTONIC SETTING & FAULTS EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS MODEL
Iran has many well-known seismically active faults, which have generated devastating earthquakes in recent years, including a M6.6 earthquake in 2003 that destroyed the city of Bam and killed more than 26,000 people
IMPACTS• The Bam earthquake was particularly destructive, with 26,271 dead and 30,000 injured..
EXACERBATING FACTORS• Iran’s earthquake specialists knew that the mud bricks of the citadel, a historical cultural heritage, did NOT comply with earthquake regulations set in 1989, but the mud bricks, a fact of life, could not be adequately strengthened..
EXACERBATING FACTORS• The high morbidity and mortality tolls were exacerbated by the fragility of the mud brick construction materials..
INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE:Many nations, including theUSA, offered assistance and resources.
TWIN MODERATE-MAGNITUDEEARTHQUAKES STRIKE IRAN SATURDAY, AUGUST 11, 2012
THE EARTHQUAKES (Source: US Geological Survey)• Saturdays first quake of M6.4 struck just before 5 pm 60 km (37 miles) northeast of the city of Tabriz at a depth of 9.9 km (6.2 miles).• Saturday’s second quake of M6.3 struck 49 km (30 miles) northeast of Tabriz 11 minutes later at a similar depth.
The earthquakes struck in East Azerbaijan province, a mountainous region thatneighbors Azerbaijan and Armenia to the north and is predominantly populated by ethnic Azeris, a minority group.
INITIAL IMPACTS• Over 1,000 villages were affected, with over 5,000 buildings in 100 villages partially or totally destroyed as concrete-block and mud-brick buildings collapsed.• At least 20 villages could not be reached because of impassable roads.• People in some villages were in dire need of food and drinking water.
INITIAL IMPACTS• Over 300 dead (more likely), with over 60 percent being women and children, partly due to the time of day (5 PM) that the quake struck.• Over 1,800 injured.
INITIAL IMPACTS (continued)• 36,000 people in the quake-hit area were provided with emergency shelter.• Many slept on the street and in parks.• A field hospital set up in Varzaghan on Sunday to treat the injured was staffed by just two doctors, who, because of shortages of medical supplies and food, were hard pressed to meet the emergency medical needs.
INITIAL IMPACTS (continued)• Hospitals in Tabriz (49 km distance) took in many of the injured from the surrounding villages.• Water, electricity, and phone lines in the Varzaghan area were all down, further hindering rescue efforts• Preliminary loss estimate: $650 million USD
VARZAGHAN: INITIAL S & R MOSTLY BY RESIDENTS; AUG 11th
A CONTROVERSIAL DECISIONSearch and rescue was stopped after 24 hours and a 2-day period of mourning started
THIS DISASTER EXPOSED POLICY FLAWS• UN—PROTECTED• UN—PREPARED• UN--ABLE TO RESPOND EFFECTIVELY
FACT: VILLAGE HOUSES WITH LITTLE OF NO EARTHQUAKE RESISTANCE COLLAPSED,INCREASINGING DEATHS AND INJURIESThe 5 pm occurrence) instead of a 10 pm occurrence) likely reduced the number of deaths.
FACT: KNOWING WHERE THESEISMICALLY ACTIVE FAULTSARE AND BEING UNPREPARED FOR THE INEVITABLE EARTHQUAKES LEADS TO UNNECESSAY DISASTERS
FACT: EVEN THE WORLD’S BESTFIRST RESPONDERS, FIND THAT COLLAPSED BUILDINGS, IMPASSABLE ROADS,AFTERSHOCKS, and NIGHTFALL WILL SLOW SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS AND HINDER EMERGENCY RESPONSE
IRANIAN RED CRESCENT WILLING TO ACCEPT INTERNATIONAL AID"We would welcome help by any country,"said Irans parliament speaker, Ali Larijani,during his visit to the earthquake-stricken area on Tuesday, August 14th.
RED CRESCENT ASSETS DEPLOYED• 1,100 Red Crescent workers were deployed with 44,000 food packages and 5,600 tents for survivors needing temporary shelter.
IRAN’S NEXT EARTHQUAKE IS INEVITABLE • BUT, EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE IS NOT AN IMPOSSIBLE DREAM!