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DSD-INT 2023 The Danube Hazardous Substances Model - Kovacs

Deltares
Deltares

Presentation by Adam Kovacs (ICPDR, Austria), Jos van Gils (Deltares, Netherlands) at the Delft3D User Days, during the Delft Software Days - Edition 2023 (DSD-INT 2023). Thursday, 16 November 2023, Delft.

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Adam Kovacs, Technical Expert - Pollution Control
International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River, Vienna, Austria
Jos van Gils, Senior Researcher/Advisor
Deltares, Delft, The Netherlands
How emission modelling can contribute to
management of a large international river basin
The Danube Hazardous
Substances Model
Table of contents
2
• Why ICPDR pursued the development of DHSM
• Building blocks for DHSM
• Implementation of DHSM
• Sample results
• Was DHSM successful? What worked? What didn’t ?
Title page photograph: © Hannes Sallmutter/ebswien
© Mikhail Mikheev/Getty Images
Delft3D
User
Days
2023
|
The
Danube
Hazardous
Substances
Model
Danube River Basin & ICPDR
800.000 km2
6.500 m3/s
85 Million PE
19 countries
Heterogeneity
Implementation of
the DRPC
EU WFD & FD
coordination
Policy making and
technical work
Chemical status
Protection of water &
ecological resources
Sustainable & equitable
use of water
Reduce nutrients &
hazardous substances
Manage floods
& ice hazards
Challenge of hazardous substances pollution
4
• Knowledge gap on enhanced monitoring and modelling tools
• Deficiencies of monitoring data in non-EU MS
• Lack of institutional capacity and intersectoral dialogue
• Climate change impacts (heavy rainfall, drought and low flow)
• Changing EU water legislation with ambitious requirements
• Shift focus from substances to pathways (domestic wastewater,
industrial wastewater, runoff in relation to land use, etc.):
▪ “Marker substances” for specific pathways
▪ “Priority pathways” instead of priority pollutants
© The Strive
Delft3D
User
Days
2023
|
The
Danube
Hazardous
Substances
Model
Danube Hazard m3c: science-policy interface
5
Preliminary basin-wide
assessment
Improved basin-wide
emission model
Improved assessment &
scenario analysis
Inputs to DRBMPs
Analysis of existing
policies and strategies
Policy
recommendations
Transboundary
management
Modelling
Policy
support
Pilot sub-catchment
modelling
Inventory & Monitoring Capacity building
Pilot sub-catchment
modelling
Inventory & Monitoring Capacity building
Delft3D
User
Days
2023
|
The
Danube
Hazardous
Substances
Model
Building blocks
Methodology
• Common Implementation Strategy for the Water Framework Directive, Guidance Document No. 28
on the Preparation of an Inventory of Emissions, Discharges and Losses of Priority and Priority
Hazardous Substances + Calculating emissions to water – ETC/ICM Report 3/2022
Software
• D-Emissions programme (component of Delft3D FM Suite; under development)
Basin schematization and hydrology (2003-2013)
• E-Hype model by SMHI, Sweden
General information on the Danube River Basin
• ICPDR inventories
Specific information on Hazardous Substances in the Danube River Basin
• DanubeHazard m3c project (Interreg; Danube Transnational Programme)
6
Delft3D
User
Days
2023
|
The
Danube
Hazardous
Substances
Model

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DSD-INT 2023 The Danube Hazardous Substances Model - Kovacs

  • 1. Adam Kovacs, Technical Expert - Pollution Control International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River, Vienna, Austria Jos van Gils, Senior Researcher/Advisor Deltares, Delft, The Netherlands How emission modelling can contribute to management of a large international river basin The Danube Hazardous Substances Model
  • 2. Table of contents 2 • Why ICPDR pursued the development of DHSM • Building blocks for DHSM • Implementation of DHSM • Sample results • Was DHSM successful? What worked? What didn’t ? Title page photograph: © Hannes Sallmutter/ebswien © Mikhail Mikheev/Getty Images Delft3D User Days 2023 | The Danube Hazardous Substances Model
  • 3. Danube River Basin & ICPDR 800.000 km2 6.500 m3/s 85 Million PE 19 countries Heterogeneity Implementation of the DRPC EU WFD & FD coordination Policy making and technical work Chemical status Protection of water & ecological resources Sustainable & equitable use of water Reduce nutrients & hazardous substances Manage floods & ice hazards
  • 4. Challenge of hazardous substances pollution 4 • Knowledge gap on enhanced monitoring and modelling tools • Deficiencies of monitoring data in non-EU MS • Lack of institutional capacity and intersectoral dialogue • Climate change impacts (heavy rainfall, drought and low flow) • Changing EU water legislation with ambitious requirements • Shift focus from substances to pathways (domestic wastewater, industrial wastewater, runoff in relation to land use, etc.): ▪ “Marker substances” for specific pathways ▪ “Priority pathways” instead of priority pollutants © The Strive Delft3D User Days 2023 | The Danube Hazardous Substances Model
  • 5. Danube Hazard m3c: science-policy interface 5 Preliminary basin-wide assessment Improved basin-wide emission model Improved assessment & scenario analysis Inputs to DRBMPs Analysis of existing policies and strategies Policy recommendations Transboundary management Modelling Policy support Pilot sub-catchment modelling Inventory & Monitoring Capacity building Pilot sub-catchment modelling Inventory & Monitoring Capacity building Delft3D User Days 2023 | The Danube Hazardous Substances Model
  • 6. Building blocks Methodology • Common Implementation Strategy for the Water Framework Directive, Guidance Document No. 28 on the Preparation of an Inventory of Emissions, Discharges and Losses of Priority and Priority Hazardous Substances + Calculating emissions to water – ETC/ICM Report 3/2022 Software • D-Emissions programme (component of Delft3D FM Suite; under development) Basin schematization and hydrology (2003-2013) • E-Hype model by SMHI, Sweden General information on the Danube River Basin • ICPDR inventories Specific information on Hazardous Substances in the Danube River Basin • DanubeHazard m3c project (Interreg; Danube Transnational Programme) 6 Delft3D User Days 2023 | The Danube Hazardous Substances Model
  • 7. Implementation 7 “Source oriented” approach 1. Quantify Sources, and allocate to initial receptor (e.g. paved surfaces, top soils, sewers) 2. Trace substances pathways − Wastewater management − Stormwater management − Soil system 3. In-stream fate and transport (water quality model) Steps 1-2: emission inventory Step 3: resulting water concentrations • Model validation • Evaluate emission reduction measures Delft3D User Days 2023 | The Danube Hazardous Substances Model
  • 8. Implementation (cont’d) 8 • Calculations for about 3,500 schematization elements • Every element has a river section that flows into the downstream element • HS fluxes along pathways are time-dependent, controlled by hydrology • Events are resolved, e.g. − combined sewer overflows, − first flush of paved surfaces after dry periods • Inter-annual variability is resolved − wet years, dry years − differences in emissions − differences in dilution 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Discharge(m3/s) Delft3D User Days 2023 | The Danube Hazardous Substances Model
  • 9. Implementation (cont’d) 9 • Spatial data or country data from various sources • Specific data on hazardous substances (DanubeHazard m3c project) • 17 target substances, selected to represent different relevant sources and pathways − 7 metals − benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), representing PAHs − 2 pharmaceuticals − 3 industrial chemicals − 2 PFAS substances − 2 pesticides Delft3D User Days 2023 | The Danube Hazardous Substances Model
  • 10. Results 10 • Calculated emissions of 17 chemicals • Distributed over pathways (as in the WFD CIS Guidance) Not shown here • Mass balance of all compartments (insight) • Quantified uncertainty of emissions • Quantified variability of emissions between years 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Cd Pb Cu As Ni Hg Zn BaP PFOS PFOA BpA Met Tcz Cbz Dcf NP OP Emissions to surface water Atm Ind Agr HHo Nav WWTP Unc CSO StSew ROimp SRO DGW Ero Delft3D User Days 2023 | The Danube Hazardous Substances Model
  • 11. Results (cont’d) • Spatial variability • Country totals, subdivided over pathways • Maps of area-specific total emissions 11 0.0 5000.0 10000.0 15000.0 20000.0 25000.0 DE AT CZ SK HU SI HR BA ME RS BG RO MD UA Emissions to surface water per country for Zn (g/km2/y) Atm Ind Agr HHo Nav Min WWTP Unc CSO StSew ROimp SRO DGW Ero Delft3D User Days 2023 | The Danube Hazardous Substances Model
  • 12. Results (cont’d) 12 • In-stream concentrations − along the main Danube River − annual means • Variability between years − Dashed lines • Effect of uncertainty of emissions − Solid lines • All substances 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 µg/L Distance from Black Sea (km) Metolachlor Min. of 10Y Max. of 10Y P50 emissions P25 emissions P75 emissions
  • 13. Results (cont’d) • Scenarios − connection to sewer systems − wastewater treatment − advanced treatment − stormwater management − erosion control • Effects on emissions, basin- wide − S04: advanced treatment >10,000 PE • Effects on in-stream concentrations, − grey area is interannual variability 0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 2600 2100 1600 1100 600 100 µg/L Distance from Black Sea (km) Carbamezepine Range of 10 years Mean of 10Y S01 S02 S03 S04 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 Present S01 S02 S03 S04 S05 S06 S07 Emissions to surface water of Cbz (kg/y) Atm Ind Agr HHo Nav Min WWTP Unc CSO StSew ROimp SRO DGW Ero
  • 14. Model validation 14 • Measured vs simulated concentrations • Often reasonable results • Pesticides and industrial chemicals are problematic Not shown • Calibration/validation also possible along pathways (e.g. collected stormwater) 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 µg/L Distance from Black Sea (km) Carbamezepine Model-Min Model-Max DHm3c (>80% cens.) TNMN (>80% cens.) JDS4 (>80% cens.) Delft3D User Days 2023 | The Danube Hazardous Substances Model
  • 15. What worked well? • Chemical emission model for the DRB first time ever • Cooperation of scientific institutions and Danube countries • Understanding of regional hot-spots, river loads to Black Sea • Realistic pathway and source apportionment for the target chemicals • Tool for future risk assessment regarding WFD compliance • Tool for management and climate change scenario analysis • Direct inputs to the DRBMP Update 2021 and its future versions • Capacity building events on modelling for DRB experts
  • 16. What needs to be improved? 16 • Lack of a basin-wide hydrological model (water balance on the way…) • Model uncertainties for certain chemicals (pesticides and some industrial chemicals) due to: ▪ Lack of a basin-wide harmonized monitoring in water bodies suitable for modelling ▪ Lack of substance specific data on sources (production and use, industrial emissions) ▪ Lack of substance specific data on emission pathways (runoff, CSOs, groundwater) ▪ Lack of data and information on contaminated sites and legacy pollution stocks ▪ Insufficient understanding of the behavior of certain non-conservative substances • Further model improvements anticipated in future projects © netanimations.net Delft3D User Days 2023 | The Danube Hazardous Substances Model
  • 17. The authors acknowledge … • Partners of the Danube Hazard m3c consortium • The co-authors: − Ottavia Zoboli, Matthias Zessner, Steffen Kittlaus, Nikolaus Weber (TU Wien) − Martine Broer, Oliver Gabriel (UBA) − Adrienne Clement, Zsolt Jolankai, Mate Kardos (Budapest University of Technology and Economics) − Mugurel Sidău, Melinda Hărăguș, Corina Boscornea (National Administration „Romanian Waters”) − Michal Kirchner (Water Research Institute) • Support of the Danube countries • Funding received from Danube Transnational Programme 17 Delft3D User Days 2023 | The Danube Hazardous Substances Model