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1
Community Mitigation Elements
Forecasting
Flood Mapping
David Ardell
Executive Director, Operations Infrastructure
Environment and Sustainable Resource Development
Technical Lead, Flood Recovery Task Force
October 4, 2013
2
Key Elements of Mitigation
• Overall Watershed Management
• Flood Modelling, Prediction, and Warning Systems
• Flood Risk Management Policies
• Upstream Water Management and Mitigation
• Erosion Control
• Local Mitigation Initiatives
• Individual Mitigation Measures for Homes
3
•What happened ?
•What did we learn ?
•What are our follow up actions ?
4
Flood Modelling, Prediction, and Warning
Systems
• Primary river flooding concerns are
caused by:
Significant rainfall events
Significant rain on snow events
Significant ice jam events
• 24 x 7 operations to provide
forecasting services as required
• Typical Critical Time Period for
open water flooding: mid-May to
mid-July
5
Monitoring System
• 400+ Hydrometric stations
• 400+ Meteorological
stations
St Mary River near Intl. Boundary
6
Calgary
Lethbridge
• Weather forecasts from:
• Provincial Fire Weather Office
• Environment Canada
• National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA)
• Weather Network
• Unisys
• Intellicast
• Streamflow Synthesis and
Reservoir Regulation Model
(SSARR) Modeling platform – output
assessment
Forecasting System
Input Data and Modelling
Ghost River above
Waiparous Creek
8
Communications
•Initial contact with potentially
affected municipalities Monday
(June 17).
•Model scenarios run (continuous)
and results discussed with
municipalities (risk and potential
impact)
Community Engagement
- River Forecasting
9
• Early forecast : 80 to 160
mm over 48 hours – Red
Deer and Bow River Basins
• Contact with potentially
affected municipalities
• No significant change in
forecast until rain started
Wednesday night (June19)
• As rain fell, flood advisories /
watches / warnings issued
Wednesday night and early
Thursday morning.
• Up to 300 mm in 24 hours in
some locations.
11
What did we learn?
• Forecasting system is not undersized, but did operate to capacity.
• Utilization of field monitoring staff was critical during the event, as
many stations were washed out.
• Ongoing and pre-communications with partners and municipalities
assisted information transfer greatly during the event.
• How do we reduce the uncertainty of the metrological forecast as it
directly relates to stream flow forecast ?
• How do we accommodate climate variability in the metrological /
stream flow forecasts ?
• Consideration of “Flash Flood” warning systems
Follow up Actions
• Full assessment of partner group and clients evaluation of notification
system and tools.
• Full review of modeling accuracy and how a forecast is evaluated
after an event.
• Full review of ongoing modeling capabilities for “Alberta”.
• Review of national and international performance measures.
• Full review of adequacy of field monitoring stations and system :
• Snow
• Rain
• Soil moisture
• Water quantity
• Location and Resiliency
13
Provincial Flood Hazard Identification
Program
Little Red Deer River near Water Valley
2005
14
• Flood hazard mapping has been produced by
the Government of Alberta for communities
throughout the province since the 1970s
• Canada-Alberta Flood Damage Reduction
Program (FDRP) was initiated in 1989 with
the Government of Canada to standardize
and cost-share flood hazard mapping studies
• The Government of Alberta has continued to
create flood hazard mapping for communities
since 1999 with the Flood Hazard
Identification Program (FHIP)
History
Provincial Flood Hazard Identification Program
15
• Part of a comprehensive flood hazard study
• A computer hydraulic model representing the river is
created using survey data and historic highwater
marks
• Model calculates water levels for a design flood
event
• Design flood levels transferred to base mapping to
delineate a flood hazard area
Map Production
Water surface elevation profiles for various discharges for the
Red Deer River at Drumheller
670
672
674
676
678
680
682
684
686
688
690
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
Elevation, m
Distancealongriver,m
Q = 2290 m3/s
Q = 1640 m3/s
Q = 1472 m3/s
Left Dyke
Right Dyke
Provincial Flood Hazard Identification Program
16
Design Flood
• A flood that has a 1% chance of
occurring each year
• Referred to as the 100-year flood, but
this does not mean that it will only
occur once every 100 years
• Flood hazard mapping identifies areas
at risk from flooding caused by
excessive overbank river flow, and
does not consider:
– groundwater problems
– storm water drainage issues
– dam or levee failures
– debris jams at bridges
Terminology
Provincial Flood Hazard Identification Program
17
What did we learn?
• Policy decision has increased the focus on all aspect of the Provincial
Flood Hazard Maps.
• Intense focus on the location of the floodway and flood fringe lines this
information is of critical importance to Disaster Recovery Program
(DRP) decisions.
• Flood Hazard Mapping vs. Flood Risk Mapping
– Hazard identification - Hazard + Lilkelihood x
Consequence
• Consideration of erosion, local storm water, sewer backup,
groundwater, debris accumulation
Follow up Actions
• Comprehensive implementation plan for both post event assessment
reviews and unmapped communities maps is being developed.
• Results of the post assessments will be shared with the community
and need for a full mapping review / analysis discussed with local
governments.
• Engagement and consultation with Academic and Professional
Technical Experts regarding overall “risk based assessment and
management” approach.
• Review of long term program objective and tools:
– Federal Study underway
– Provincial objectives
– Others ?
19
Little Red Deer River near Water Valley
2005

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Mitigation Symposium - Dave Ardell

  • 1. 1 Community Mitigation Elements Forecasting Flood Mapping David Ardell Executive Director, Operations Infrastructure Environment and Sustainable Resource Development Technical Lead, Flood Recovery Task Force October 4, 2013
  • 2. 2 Key Elements of Mitigation • Overall Watershed Management • Flood Modelling, Prediction, and Warning Systems • Flood Risk Management Policies • Upstream Water Management and Mitigation • Erosion Control • Local Mitigation Initiatives • Individual Mitigation Measures for Homes
  • 3. 3 •What happened ? •What did we learn ? •What are our follow up actions ?
  • 4. 4 Flood Modelling, Prediction, and Warning Systems • Primary river flooding concerns are caused by: Significant rainfall events Significant rain on snow events Significant ice jam events • 24 x 7 operations to provide forecasting services as required • Typical Critical Time Period for open water flooding: mid-May to mid-July
  • 5. 5 Monitoring System • 400+ Hydrometric stations • 400+ Meteorological stations St Mary River near Intl. Boundary
  • 7. • Weather forecasts from: • Provincial Fire Weather Office • Environment Canada • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) • Weather Network • Unisys • Intellicast • Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation Model (SSARR) Modeling platform – output assessment Forecasting System Input Data and Modelling Ghost River above Waiparous Creek
  • 8. 8 Communications •Initial contact with potentially affected municipalities Monday (June 17). •Model scenarios run (continuous) and results discussed with municipalities (risk and potential impact) Community Engagement - River Forecasting
  • 9. 9 • Early forecast : 80 to 160 mm over 48 hours – Red Deer and Bow River Basins • Contact with potentially affected municipalities • No significant change in forecast until rain started Wednesday night (June19) • As rain fell, flood advisories / watches / warnings issued Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. • Up to 300 mm in 24 hours in some locations.
  • 10.
  • 11. 11 What did we learn? • Forecasting system is not undersized, but did operate to capacity. • Utilization of field monitoring staff was critical during the event, as many stations were washed out. • Ongoing and pre-communications with partners and municipalities assisted information transfer greatly during the event. • How do we reduce the uncertainty of the metrological forecast as it directly relates to stream flow forecast ? • How do we accommodate climate variability in the metrological / stream flow forecasts ? • Consideration of “Flash Flood” warning systems
  • 12. Follow up Actions • Full assessment of partner group and clients evaluation of notification system and tools. • Full review of modeling accuracy and how a forecast is evaluated after an event. • Full review of ongoing modeling capabilities for “Alberta”. • Review of national and international performance measures. • Full review of adequacy of field monitoring stations and system : • Snow • Rain • Soil moisture • Water quantity • Location and Resiliency
  • 13. 13 Provincial Flood Hazard Identification Program Little Red Deer River near Water Valley 2005
  • 14. 14 • Flood hazard mapping has been produced by the Government of Alberta for communities throughout the province since the 1970s • Canada-Alberta Flood Damage Reduction Program (FDRP) was initiated in 1989 with the Government of Canada to standardize and cost-share flood hazard mapping studies • The Government of Alberta has continued to create flood hazard mapping for communities since 1999 with the Flood Hazard Identification Program (FHIP) History Provincial Flood Hazard Identification Program
  • 15. 15 • Part of a comprehensive flood hazard study • A computer hydraulic model representing the river is created using survey data and historic highwater marks • Model calculates water levels for a design flood event • Design flood levels transferred to base mapping to delineate a flood hazard area Map Production Water surface elevation profiles for various discharges for the Red Deer River at Drumheller 670 672 674 676 678 680 682 684 686 688 690 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 Elevation, m Distancealongriver,m Q = 2290 m3/s Q = 1640 m3/s Q = 1472 m3/s Left Dyke Right Dyke Provincial Flood Hazard Identification Program
  • 16. 16 Design Flood • A flood that has a 1% chance of occurring each year • Referred to as the 100-year flood, but this does not mean that it will only occur once every 100 years • Flood hazard mapping identifies areas at risk from flooding caused by excessive overbank river flow, and does not consider: – groundwater problems – storm water drainage issues – dam or levee failures – debris jams at bridges Terminology Provincial Flood Hazard Identification Program
  • 17. 17 What did we learn? • Policy decision has increased the focus on all aspect of the Provincial Flood Hazard Maps. • Intense focus on the location of the floodway and flood fringe lines this information is of critical importance to Disaster Recovery Program (DRP) decisions. • Flood Hazard Mapping vs. Flood Risk Mapping – Hazard identification - Hazard + Lilkelihood x Consequence • Consideration of erosion, local storm water, sewer backup, groundwater, debris accumulation
  • 18. Follow up Actions • Comprehensive implementation plan for both post event assessment reviews and unmapped communities maps is being developed. • Results of the post assessments will be shared with the community and need for a full mapping review / analysis discussed with local governments. • Engagement and consultation with Academic and Professional Technical Experts regarding overall “risk based assessment and management” approach. • Review of long term program objective and tools: – Federal Study underway – Provincial objectives – Others ?
  • 19. 19 Little Red Deer River near Water Valley 2005

Editor's Notes

  1. EIA – Environmental Impact Assessment The Federal screening step involves public and Aboriginal consultation.