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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QE Index reversed and penetrated below the ascending trend
line support as well as the 9,800.0 psychological level and declined
by around 85 points (-0.86%) to close at 9,785.90. The index failed to
make any further headway above 9,900.0 and witnessed selling
pressure throughout the day. The index is currently trading close to
its important support of 9,766.28, but needs to cling on to support in
order to proceed toward 9,800.0; any dip below may test 9,700.0.
Nakilat: Short-Term – Pull Back
QGTS tested and temporarily managed to move above the QR20.0
level on Thursday. However, the level proved too strong for QGTS to
hold and it ended up closing below it; it continued its decline on
Sunday as well surrendering around 0.80%. With the RSI drifting
lower, it looks like QGTS may decline and test its immediate support
at QR19.34, which if breached, may test the 21-day moving average.
Thus, the preferred direction for QGTS appears downward.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QERI Index dipped below support of the 55-day moving average
(currently at 2,805.11) and the 2,800.0 psychological level in a single
swoop. The index has been encountering stiff resistance near the
2,815.0 level over the past few days and finally caved in to selling
pressure. The next important level for the traders to watch out for will
be 2,782.0; hence a dip below it may result in a lower move.
Conversely, a move above 2,800.0 may indicate a false breakdown.
Ooredoo: Short-Term – Pull Back
ORDS reversed yesterday and declined below the support of
QR142.90 after facing uncertainty in clearing the resistance at
QR145.0. We believe the stock may drift lower from the current level
and test its immediate support near the QR140.0 level. Moreover, the
RSI has shown a bearish divergence indicating a price correction.
However, if the stock manages to close above the QR142.90 level, it
may advance and retest the QR145.0 level.
United Development Co.: Short-Term – Pull Back
UDCD formed a shooting star pattern on Thursday, which often leads
to either consolidation or decline. Moreover, the stock declined
yesterday and formed a bearish Marubozu Candle pattern, thus
providing a confirmation of this trend reversal pattern. Thus, we
believe UDCD might move lower and test its support of QR21.70. Any
sustained selling pressure below this level may even test the 21-day
moving average (currently at QR21.36).
Qatari Investors Group: Short-Term – Bounce Back
QIGD rebounded and breached the resistance of QR29.85 and did
not weaken despite the recent market turbulence. We believe, if
QIGD can manage to hold on to its price rebound at QR29.85, then a
prospect of a higher move toward the descending trendline at
QR30.50 is possible. On the flip side, a drop below QR29.85 on a
closing basis may indicate a false breakout and bearish implications.
Meanwhile, both momentum indicators support a higher move.
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 2 of 2
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55-
day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term Long Term First Second First Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 9,785.90 UP UP 9,700.00 9,600.00 10,200.00 10,350.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 2,797.38 UP DOWN 2,700.00 2,600.00 2,950.00 3,000.00
Banks and Financial Services
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 29.50 UP UP 24.00 23.20 31.40 33.00
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 68.50 DOWN DOWN 63.90 62.40 84.20 87.20
Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 54.40 UP UP 42.00 39.50 57.14 58.00
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 68.50 DOWN DOWN 65.00 64.30 78.50 79.60
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 57.00 UP UP 47.90 45.00 60.80 61.50
Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 18.73 UP UP 16.05 15.85 19.90 20.75
National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 34.55 DOWN FLAT 32.00 31.00 43.90 45.00
Consumer Goods and Services
Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD) 51.80 DOWN DOWN 47.50 46.70 69.10 78.50
Industrials
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 152.20 DOWN DOWN 144.10 142.00 175.20 176.80
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 156.90 DOWN FLAT 140.00 132.10 172.00 174.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 49.95 UP UP 30.50 29.50 52.00 54.00
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD)* 29.90 UP UP 20.36 20.00 31.80 33.50
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 25.70 UP DOWN 22.80 19.50 29.25 29.90
United Development Co. (UDCD QD)* 21.95 UP DOWN 17.06 16.00 25.30 25.90
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development (MRDS QD) 11.65 UP UP 10.17 9.42 12.65 13.20
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)* 142.20 UP UP 108.00 98.10 146.00 148.00
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 9.09 UP FLAT 8.50 8.24 9.98 10.20
Transportation
Nakilat (QGTS QD)* 19.75 UP UP 15.08 14.52 21.15 21.70
Milaha (QNNS QD) 81.00 UP UP 58.20 56.70 84.90 86.50

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23 September Daily Technical Trader

  • 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QE Index reversed and penetrated below the ascending trend line support as well as the 9,800.0 psychological level and declined by around 85 points (-0.86%) to close at 9,785.90. The index failed to make any further headway above 9,900.0 and witnessed selling pressure throughout the day. The index is currently trading close to its important support of 9,766.28, but needs to cling on to support in order to proceed toward 9,800.0; any dip below may test 9,700.0. Nakilat: Short-Term – Pull Back QGTS tested and temporarily managed to move above the QR20.0 level on Thursday. However, the level proved too strong for QGTS to hold and it ended up closing below it; it continued its decline on Sunday as well surrendering around 0.80%. With the RSI drifting lower, it looks like QGTS may decline and test its immediate support at QR19.34, which if breached, may test the 21-day moving average. Thus, the preferred direction for QGTS appears downward. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QERI Index dipped below support of the 55-day moving average (currently at 2,805.11) and the 2,800.0 psychological level in a single swoop. The index has been encountering stiff resistance near the 2,815.0 level over the past few days and finally caved in to selling pressure. The next important level for the traders to watch out for will be 2,782.0; hence a dip below it may result in a lower move. Conversely, a move above 2,800.0 may indicate a false breakdown. Ooredoo: Short-Term – Pull Back ORDS reversed yesterday and declined below the support of QR142.90 after facing uncertainty in clearing the resistance at QR145.0. We believe the stock may drift lower from the current level and test its immediate support near the QR140.0 level. Moreover, the RSI has shown a bearish divergence indicating a price correction. However, if the stock manages to close above the QR142.90 level, it may advance and retest the QR145.0 level. United Development Co.: Short-Term – Pull Back UDCD formed a shooting star pattern on Thursday, which often leads to either consolidation or decline. Moreover, the stock declined yesterday and formed a bearish Marubozu Candle pattern, thus providing a confirmation of this trend reversal pattern. Thus, we believe UDCD might move lower and test its support of QR21.70. Any sustained selling pressure below this level may even test the 21-day moving average (currently at QR21.36). Qatari Investors Group: Short-Term – Bounce Back QIGD rebounded and breached the resistance of QR29.85 and did not weaken despite the recent market turbulence. We believe, if QIGD can manage to hold on to its price rebound at QR29.85, then a prospect of a higher move toward the descending trendline at QR30.50 is possible. On the flip side, a drop below QR29.85 on a closing basis may indicate a false breakout and bearish implications. Meanwhile, both momentum indicators support a higher move.
  • 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 9,785.90 UP UP 9,700.00 9,600.00 10,200.00 10,350.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 2,797.38 UP DOWN 2,700.00 2,600.00 2,950.00 3,000.00 Banks and Financial Services Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 29.50 UP UP 24.00 23.20 31.40 33.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 68.50 DOWN DOWN 63.90 62.40 84.20 87.20 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 54.40 UP UP 42.00 39.50 57.14 58.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 68.50 DOWN DOWN 65.00 64.30 78.50 79.60 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 57.00 UP UP 47.90 45.00 60.80 61.50 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 18.73 UP UP 16.05 15.85 19.90 20.75 National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 34.55 DOWN FLAT 32.00 31.00 43.90 45.00 Consumer Goods and Services Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD) 51.80 DOWN DOWN 47.50 46.70 69.10 78.50 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 152.20 DOWN DOWN 144.10 142.00 175.20 176.80 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 156.90 DOWN FLAT 140.00 132.10 172.00 174.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 49.95 UP UP 30.50 29.50 52.00 54.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD)* 29.90 UP UP 20.36 20.00 31.80 33.50 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 25.70 UP DOWN 22.80 19.50 29.25 29.90 United Development Co. (UDCD QD)* 21.95 UP DOWN 17.06 16.00 25.30 25.90 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development (MRDS QD) 11.65 UP UP 10.17 9.42 12.65 13.20 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD)* 142.20 UP UP 108.00 98.10 146.00 148.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 9.09 UP FLAT 8.50 8.24 9.98 10.20 Transportation Nakilat (QGTS QD)* 19.75 UP UP 15.08 14.52 21.15 21.70 Milaha (QNNS QD) 81.00 UP UP 58.20 56.70 84.90 86.50