Climate Change Lecture given by Duncan Green Head of Research at Oxfam GB Notre Dame University, September 2009Part of a series of From Poverty to Power lectures.
Main messages Climate change is fundamentally a development crisis: the central poverty issue of our time The scientific battle has been won – the debate now is over what to do about it A global framework for responding has now been agreed, but time is short to agree specifics The elements of this framework are Mitigation; Adaptation; Finance and Technology Key decisions are who acts, who pays and when Copenhagen meeting in December is make or break Plan Bs look pretty unattractive!
Suffering the Science:The human costs of climate change Climate change is affecting every issue linked to poverty and development today, from access to food and water to health and security. Without immediate action 50 years of development gains in poor countries will be permanently lost
Hunger, agriculturalproductivity and water availability Rice and maize face significant drops in yields Maize yields forecast to drop by 15% or more by 2020 in most of sub- Saharan Africa and India South African government scientists predicting 50% drop in all cereal yields by 2080 Water supplies running out Several major cities (Kathmandu, La Paz) which depend on glaciers may soon be unable to function The Ganges basin alone is home to 500 million people
Disasters and displacement Climate-related disasters – storms, floods, droughts and wildfires – increasing in frequency 375 million people at risk each year by 2015 – a 50% increase which could overwhelm humanitarian systems 26 million people already displaced 1 million more people displaced every year by weather-related events
Health, labour productivity and trade Diseases like malaria and dengue fever are creeping into new areas Heat stress a massive risk to farmers and outdoor workers Uneven impacts on agriculture US agricultural profits to rise by $1.3bn per year Sub-Saharan Africa to lose $2bn per year as viability of just one crop - maize - declines
The Science Atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases and global average temperatures
The Urgency Greenhouse gas emissions are rising faster than even worst case scenarios
So what do we do? Adaptation: helping people to build their resilience to climate change – Adaptation is good development – Best way is to build human security – Who pays? How much? Mitigation: cutting global emissions – Who cuts? How fast?
Mitigation:If they lived like us… …and we lived like them Wouldn’t we expect them to cut their emissions faster?
Bali Action Plan SHARED VISION Global emissions reduction pathway and key principles of future action to confront climate change Mitigation Adaptation Finance TechnologyBinding emission Globally increased Search for new Increased co-operationreduction targets efforts to adapt the financial for the uptake and wide world to climate resources to help diffusion of cleanfor rich (Annex I) change, esp. in developing technologies countries developing countries both to countries mitigate and to Actions by adaptdeveloping (Non-Annex I) countriessupported by rich countries
The crunch moment: Copenhagen COP-15: 15th meeting of the 192 countries that signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) UNFCCC (drawn up at 1992 Rio Earth Summit): – Aims to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations at levels that prevent dangerous climate change; effort to be shared based on principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” – Rich countries (Annex I) shall reduce their emissions first and fastest, and support developing countries in both mitigation and adaptation, by providing financial support and technology transfer – Developing countries‟ (Non-Annex I) actions to address emissions contingent upon support from rich countries
Climate Change: make or break issues Financing offer from rich countries for mitigation and adaptation in developing countries 2020 mitigation targets for rich (Annex I) countries
What do we need at Copenhagen?A SAFE and FAIR dealSAFE: To reduce emissions sufficiently to avoid catastrophic climate changeFAIR: So that rich countries finally take responsibility for the crisis they have created, committing to: - cut emissions first, furthest and fastest - financing for mitigation and adaptation in developing countries
SAFE: Keep global warming well below 2ºC<2ºC target long-sinceaccepted by EU; G8 andMEF agree in L‟Aquila,July 2009450ppm-eq gives 50/50chance of 2.0-2.4ºC riseEmissions must peakwithin next 5-10 years anddecline steeply thereafter to stay below 2ºC
Who Pays? Responsibility and capability Top 20 world polluters: per capita pollution and income
A fair share of the global mitigation effortOxfam say:Based on responsibility for historic emissions andcapability to pay, Annex I must: – Reduce emissions by at least 40% by 2020 AND – Provide financing for the additional costs of limiting emissions growth in developing countries
How much cash are we talking about? Additional costs of mitigation in developing countries: $100 billion (c.€70 billion) per year by 2020 Additional costs of adaptation: $50 billion (c.€40 billion) per year from today cf. global aid budget of about $100bn (or one AIG per year)
How do we get emissions down? Standards (e.g. emissions standards) Subsidies TaxesExamples of „market mechanisms‟ Cap and Trade (e.g. European Emissions Trading Scheme) – Issues: government will; free auctions; carve- outs; price volatility Offsetting – Issues: credibility; monitoring; leakage
A FAIR and SAFE deal Annex I countries have a DOUBLE DUTY: - Reduce emissions by at least 40% by 2020 - Provide at least $150 billion (€110 billion) in climate finance to developing countries to: - Limit the emissions growth in developing countries to the equivalent of Annex I reductions by 2020 - Adapt to the impacts of climate change
Are there any Plan Bs? Maybe 1500+ scientists are all wrong Carbon apartheid and a New Dark Age Geo-engineering
Further Reading from the Blog CC and Flooding in Bangladesh, http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=676 Organic farming and CC, http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=395 What has CC done to the seasons?, http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=387 CC and natural disasters, http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=232 Building a low carbon economy, http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=187
Further Reading and Links UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, http://www.ipcc.ch „What is the Economics of Climate Change?‟ Stern Review, 2006 Oxfam America climate change campaign, http://www.oxfamamerica.org/issues/climate- change