A talk at the Centre of Governance and Human Rights, Universty of Cambridge by Camilla Toulmin, Director of IIED on the effects of Climate Change in Africa
1. Camilla Toulmin
Director, IIED
“Climate Change in Africa”
Tuesday, February 1st 2011
POLIS
2. What we know about climate change
CO2 in atmosphere rising faster than anticipated by IPCC
Warming of climate system
Systematic change in rainfall in most regions
Ocean temperatures up + sea level rise
Loss of arctic sea ice extent
More intense & extreme weather events
3. Africa - Water and rainfall
Much more intense water cycle
Dry areas increasingly drought prone (Northern and
Southern Africa)
Increased rainfall + greater flood risk (East Africa)
Uncertain rainfall trends West Africa
Effects on health, livelihoods, water security – women
and girls worst hit
Conflicts and trade-offs: shared river basins, hydro vs
irrigation, herding vs farming, urban water transfers
By 2020, >250m will suffer increased w stress
11. Africa - Food and farming
Projected reductions in crop yields in dry areas of
50% by 2020
Low lying coastal agriculture at risk from sea-water
flooding and salinisation
Shifts in grazing lands, livestock disease, crop-
livestock relations
In very few areas, increased temp brings longer
growing season, improved farming conditions
Major shifts in land productivity and values eg.
irrigated land in dry areas, flood prone lands
12. What measures to help farmers cope?
Research and technology
Information and communication tools
Recognising resource rights
Bridging local and modern science
Investing in social infrastructure and learning
Investing in concrete infrastructure
Market engagement
Better governance
13. Adapting to climate change – dealing with risk
and uncertainty
Building resilience: what’s the difference between risk
and uncertainty?
Diversification
Farmland and crop contracts
Insurance
Collective mechanisms
Lessons from adaptation to drought
Community based adaptation: building local
innovation systems
17. Ecosystems, forests and biodiversity
Poor depend most on environmental
assets + ecosystem services
Economic value of current rate of loss
estimated at US$2-5 trillion per year
Increased stress from changes in temp,
rainfall accelerate losses
Thresholds and tipping points
18. Cities and climate change
Urban regions most at risk of flooding located in
middle and low income nations – Nile delta, Gulf of
Guinea, Bay of Bengal, cities of Maputo, Beira, Cape
Town, Durban, Mumbai, Shanghai
95% global population growth in next 30 years will
take place in cities in developing world
Slums 50%+ of urban population and most vulnerable
to flooding + land slides
Costs of adaptation to 1m sea-level rise could cost
5-10% of GDP
Current focus on low C investment needs
complement from adaptation for most vulnerable
19. Urban Population in the LECZ
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
0
C
hi
na
In
di
a
Ja
pa
n
do
ne
si
a
U
SA
gl
ad
es
Vi h
et
na
m
Th
ai
la
Urban population in low-elevation coastal zone
nd
Eg
yp
t
he
rla
nd
s
20.
21.
22. Politics, conflict and security
Climate change brings significant political
consequences due to uneven impact, winners
and losers – globally, regionally, within
countries
Large scale migration, impoverishment,
people seeking new land bring potential for
conflict and security
Especially where guns widespread, young
men without jobs, limited government
capacity = political opportunism
23. Unintended consequences of climate
policy
Large scale land acquisitions – food
and biofuels – environmental and social
costs
24.
25.
26.
27. New market opportunities?
Agriculture a principal source of GHG emissions –
can emission reductions be sold to voluntary/formal C
market?
Defining/measuring GHG service
Minimising transaction costs
Risks of smallholder evictions
REDD+ funding
Defining/measuring C service
Managing the funds
Risks of smallholder evictions
28.
29.
30.
31. Lots of questions…..
What does climate resilient development look
like?
What best meanslevel? If accountable govt is
funds, channels,
to support adaptation –
key, how to support this?
Any positive opportunities from climate
change available to poor?
Does financial crisis make progress easier or
harder – can we turn crisis into opportunity?
What impact $200/b oil on agriculture,
transport, trade?
Editor's Notes
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
They house most economic growth\n - 87% of total GDP in low and middle income nations now from industry and services \n - Successful economies need well-functioning urban centres\nUrban populations already facing difficulties with extreme weather events\n- High vulnerability of infants & young children including impacts on long term development as well as more immediate impacts\n- Disruptions that affect urban livelihoods \n\nUrban centres / districts at risk of sea-level rise - on coasts with settlements and water sources at risk\n\nUrban populations that cannot adapt\n- Those that cannot change locations\n\nUrban populations with the least resilience \n- There will be lots of disasters; how large their impact is dependent on what is done in advance regarding preparedness \n\n\nSuccessful adaptation not possible if local government refuses to work with the poor and sees them as a problem\nBuilding adaptive capacity in tens of thousands of localities to the many impacts of climate change that:\n\nsupports & works with reduction of risks to other environmental hazards\n\nis strongly pro-poor \n\nbuilds on knowledge acquired over the last 20 years on reducing risk from disasters\n\nis based on and builds a strong local knowledge base of climate variability and of likely local impacts from climate-change scenarios\n\nencourages and supports actions that reduce risks (and vulnerabilities) now, while recognizing the importance of measures taken now for needed long-term changes \n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
CAPAs and LAPAs driving NAPAs\nLearn from good experiences e.g. Durban at city level \nExplore synergies between local development and adaptation\nGet the attention of the ‘development’ bits of local government\nBuild on innovations in local development successes \ncommunity-led & municipal led ‘slum’ and squatter upgrading & housing finance; a lot of innovation to draw on\n