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Matt PhD Conference 2012
- 1. Public Policy & Climate Change in the Asian Century Matt Spannagle Climate Change Advisor, AusAID Canberra, 27 November 2012
- 2. Contents Public policy & human development Key public policy concepts Mi7ga7on Adapta7on Ma: Spannagle has been the Climate Change Advisor for AusAID (the Australian Government’s overseas aid program) since June 2011 where his role is to provide expert input on climate change and strategic advice to AusAID’s substan7al and expanding programmes. Prior to joining AusAID, Ma: worked in UNDP as Senior Technical Advisor for a global programme of capacity development for accessing and structuring new climate finance, par7cularly carbon finance; in Canada on the design and implementa7on of the Canadian emission trading system, with par7cular focus on the project based offset system quan7fica7on and verifica7on requirements. Previously, Ma: worked with the Australian Greenhouse Office, where he managed a program that quan7fied and verified reported company emissions, and voluntary emission reduc7ons projects. Ma: has a Bachelor of Civil Engineering, and completed his Masters of Environmental Engineering Science by research on climate risks to large infrastructure projects (par7cularly dams) before working in construc7on and project management with dams and water infrastructure for private companies and state corpora7ons.
- 3. Public policy challenges of the century… 1800s – public health water supply, sanita7on, pest control 1900s – armed conflict MAD, UNSC(?), ICC 2000s – ….?
- 4. Now 2100 Committed Warmer than at anytime since we stood upright
- 5. Global temperature change NASA data for 2010, 0.75oC above 1951-80 base period
- 6. Public policy objecEve: Avoid this… 2011: Warmest La Nina year, 11th warmest year
- 7. Fatalities > 1400; >1.3M effected (Unicef)
- 8. Public Policy objecEve: Avoid this… Pakistan, August 2010 Fatalities > 1400; > 1.3M effected (Unicef)
- 9. Global food prices spiked recently for the second 7me in three years (World Bank) Public policy …? Australian drought/lack wheat export Russian heatwave, ban wheat export Oil > $130/ barrel
- 10. Century of climate change (sustainability) Tragedy of the commons -‐ > global problem: lose-‐lose or win-‐win > accoun7ng for externali7es > BaU of markets = certain failure > serious equity considera7ons Public policy intervenEon required!
- 11. Australia’s internaEonal commitments Kyoto Protocol 2⁰C $599M to global fast-‐start financing 2010-‐13 (~$200M/year) 52% adapta7on Mi7ga7on: 24% Non-‐forest mi7ga7on 24% REDD+/LULUCF ~ 95% of FSF allocated, ~ 65% disbursed
- 12. > MiEgaEon – avoid the unmanagable - Reduce exis7ng emissions - Avoid future emissions - Sequester emissions > AdaptaEon – manage the unavoidable - Maladapta7on - Resistance - Resilience - Transforma7on 2. Key concepts
- 13. already commi:ed to around 1.5 – 2⁰C 2⁰C: between ‘dangerous’ &‘manageable’ low probability of staying below 2⁰C most likely 3-‐4⁰C by 2060-‐2070 At current rate > 4.5 ⁰C by 2100 (bleak) Mitigation – “avoid the unmanagable”
- 14. The StabilizaEon Challenge • Long response lag (50yrs+) from emirng to impacts • Key objecEve is to stabilize CO2e concentraEons Requires global emissions below natural uptake (15-‐20Gt) Currently at ~ 44Gt and by 2030 55Gt BaU for 550ppm by 2035 • 2050 populaEon of 9 billion ….means an alloca7on of ~2 tCO2e/capita globally India ~ 2t/capita China 6t EU averages 12t USA, Canada and Australia ~ 25t
- 15. The trillionth tonne – why acEon is urgent Allen et al, Nature, 2009 Meinshausen et al, Nature, 2009 Solomon et al, PNAS, 2009 80 60 40 20 0 -20 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year when emissions peak -2.0% -3.6% -6% -12% -22.6% Required annual rate of reduction to stay within ‘trillion tonnes’ budget Emissionsrate:GigatonnesofCO2equivalent • We need to limit cumulative emissions of CO2 to a total of one trillion tonnes of carbon (1 TtC) to stay within 2°C warming (range: 1.6-2.6°C). • We’ve already spent half of our allowance since pre-industrial times, so we have ~0.5 TtC left. • At our present rate of emissions growth we will spend the rest by ~2035, when we’d have to stop all emissions overnight to avoid exceeding 2°C.
- 16. MiEgaEon OpEons > To stabilise concentra7ons (at 550ppm or below) before 2050 limits the mi7ga7on op7ons due to scale up and technology constraints > Poten7al share of mi7ga7on task to 2050: - Energy efficiency 40-‐60% - Renewables (10-‐15%) - Biosequestra7on (inc REDD)/Biofuels (10-‐15%) - Nuclear (2-‐5%) - CCS (1-‐5%) - Fossil Fuel switch (5%) - Agriculture and waste (5-‐10%) Conceivable uptake without major public policy interventions
- 17. Mitigation can &should = development! To avoid (further) dangerous climate change we must address emissions in developing countries without stifling legitimate development goals…
- 18. Global approach toavoid 2⁰C Or ‘green growth’ or ‘low emission development’ or ‘bending the curve’ 2000 2010 2030 2050 Emissions(tCO2e) Emissions (BaU) Avoid Emissions Emissions (LEDS)
- 19. Reality Or Project levelimplmentation; or ‘low emission development strategies’ or ‘Suppressed Demand’ Satisfied Service, high emissions (BaU) Satisfied Service Level, low emissions BaU:increasingwealth=increaseemissions Current (unsatisfactory) Service Level time now Avoid Emissions Emission Reductions
- 20. > Energy efficiency : - Improved cookstoves - EE ligh7ng including off-‐grid - EE applicances (fridges, mo7ve power etc) - Renewables • large MW, par7cularly wind, hydro on grid (CSP, Solar, Geothermal, 9dal?) • Smaller MW, larger numbers, par7cularly mini-‐hydro & solar systems for off-‐grid > REDD+ > Biofuels - Pelle7sed fuels - Biogas from waste > Public transport > Outside the box: ICT, Water treatment etc What things might deliver miEgaEon & development? Contested
- 21. 2011: > investment in renewables increased 17% to US $257 billion (six 7mes 2004); > solar PV module prices dropped by 50% > onshore wind turbines by nearly 10%. Cause for opEmism!! Public policy successes… As development progresses, fewer people in LICs & LDCs, more MICs… …the developed/developing divide erodes
- 22. > Afforesta7on > Reforesta7on > Forest Management > Increasing carbon in the landscape (Silvopastoral?) > …algal biofuels? Public policies on R&D? Sequestering carbon – net reducEons
- 23. > Antarc7c ocean iron fer7lisa7on? > Sulphur Dioxide stratospheric injec7on > Albedo interven7ons > Geosta7onary reflectors Last resort of climate protecEon (public) policies
- 24. > MiEgaEon – avoid the unmanagable - Reduce exis7ng emissions - Avoid future emissions - Sequester emissions > AdaptaEon – manage the unavoidable - Maladapta7on - Resistance - Resilience - Transforma7on 2. Key concepts
- 25. Adapta7on examples: Dealing with saltwater intrusion Lau Lagoon, Malaita Province, PNG
- 26. 1. Rapid mi7ga7on now 2. development & diversifica7on 3. Integrate climate in investments 4. specific Adapta7on Ac7ons Adaptation – “manage the unavoidable”
- 27. 1. Rapid mi7ga7on now 2. development & diversifica7on 3. Integrate climate in investments 4. specific Adapta7on Ac7ons Adaptation – “manage the unavoidable”
- 28. DARA COUNTRY (2010) UNDP Human Development Index* (2011) OVERALL VULNERABILITY > AFGHANISTAN > ANGOLA > BANGLADESH > BELIZE > BHUTAN > BURKINA FASO > CHAD > DJIBOUTI > EQUATORIAL GUINEA > ERITREA > ETHIOPIA > GAMBIA > GUINEA-‐BISSAU > GUYANA > HAITI > HONDURAS > INDIA > KAZAKHSTAN > KENYA > KIRIBATI - Italicised = LDC * based on income, educa9on, life expectancy 2. development & diversification 187 Congo, Democratic Republic of the 0.286 186 Niger 0.295 185 Burundi 0.316 184 Mozambique 0.322 183 Chad 0.328 182 Liberia 0.329 181 Burkina Faso 0.331 180 Sierra Leone 0.336 179 Central African Republic 0.340 178 Guinea 0.344 177 Eritrea 0.349 176 Guinea-Bissau 0.353 175 Mali 0.359 174 Ethiopia 0.363 173 Zimbabwe 0.376 172 Afghanistan 0.398 171 Malawi 0.400 170 Côte d'Ivoire 0.400 169 Sudan 0.408 168 Gambia 0.420
- 29. 2011: wekest year on record in Qld Fatalities = 22 (Qld police) HDI: Rank = 2; value = 0.929
- 30. 2011: record floods in Thailand Fatalities > 500 (BBC); HDI: Rank = 103; value = 0.682
- 31. > educate girls > Economic development and diversifica7on > Mobility and flexibility 2. development & diversification
- 32. 1. Rapid mi7ga7on now 2. development & diversifica7on 3. Integrate climate in investments 4. specific Adapta7on Ac7ons Adaptation – “manage the unavoidable”
- 33. Design for changing condi7ons Investments should be suitable for climate condi7ons throughout their design lives… A. Hydrology i. Spillway design ii. water supply iii. Bridges/river crossings 3. Integrate climate in investments
- 34. B. Extreme events i. Building codes ii. Disaster risk reduc7on integra7on – eg -‐ Warning systems and shelters 3. Integrate climate in investments
- 35. C. Spa7al planning for expanded hazards i. Flood plain mapping and building approvals ii. Water catchment/runoff management (cover) iii. SLR, wave run up management (1m +High water) 3. Integrate climate in investments
- 36. Addressing the ‘MDB approach’ Integra7on doesn’t necessarily cost (much) money 3. Integrate climate in investments Project cost ‘Climate proof’ Design includes CC from start $$$ 2010 20??
- 37. 1. Rapid mi7ga7on now 2. development & diversifica7on 3. Integrate climate in investments 4. specific AdaptaEon AcEons Adaptation – “manage the unavoidable”
- 38. - “…cycles of marginal improvement are NOT sufficient…” - Building resilience may not be enough… Adaptation – “manage the unavoidable” ResilienceVulnerability Hazard
- 39. if the “unavoidable” cannot be managed using approaches and knowledge of the past… reconsider assumptions ResilienceVulnerability Hazard ?Coping – reactive/ unplanned ~ Hardship, suffering
- 40. 1. MaladaptaEon – current climate Rain fed corn farming in ASAL with subsistence small holders = viable smallholder plot
- 41. 2. Resistance – minor climate changes Irrigated corn farming in ASAL with subsistence small holders = viable smallholder plot
- 42. 3. Resilience – significant changes Shift to cassava farming & CA = viable smallholder cassava
- 43. 4. TransformaEon – major changes Shift to pastoral/rangeland = viable smallholder cassava = viable pastoral
- 44. Then consider: 1. Maladapta7on 2. Resistance 3. Resilience 4. Transforma7on reconsider assumptions transition
- 45. Key concepts CC Impacts Adaptiveresponse Autonomous coping Resistance Resilience Transformation Autonomous Resistance in new state Timing? Increasing adapta9ve capac9y CHALLENGE for PUBLIC POLICY!!!
- 46. 4 phases of adaptaEon vary over: - Space • not all must change (within na7onal context) • some remain viable when others change and reduce resource pressure - 7me • changes should be proac7ve and managed progressively, rather than responsive • transforma7on too early likely sub-‐op7mal MaladaptaEon, resistance, resilience, transformaEon
- 47. Inves7ng in resistance and resilience now makes sense ONLY if it avoids: - stranded assets (eg irriga7on system) - Stranded livelihoods (eg skills in farmers not pastoralists) And it is ‘no regrets’ CHALLENGE for PUBLIC POLICY!!! MaladaptaEon, resistance, resilience, transformaEon
- 48. cannot fund all projects, therefore: • Ins7gate interna7onal & na7onal policies and programs (scale-‐up) • Co-‐investors – host governments, private sector, donors, CSOs & individuals etc (leverage) • Demonstra7on effect/persuasion of peers (replicaEon) Public policies making a difference: { X > Σ 1 n }
- 49. Knowledge Management -‐ share lessons – mul7-‐direc7onal making a difference { X > Σ 1 n } Advocacy DemonstraEon Peer persuasion Directed AcEon Scale-‐up Leverage Replica7on Hard
- 50. 1. Sequence 1. scien7fic basis/impacts 2. plan adapta7on priori7es 3. implement 2. Research programs (new knowledge -‐ new applica7on, nexus/systems) 3. CCA & DRR programming coordina7on, but… need to align CCA with development trajectories What Australia is doing on adaptation
- 51. Lessons for scale up 1. Ownership – co management 2. Livelihoods – benefits for the poor NOW to ensure sustainability 3. Local solu7ons in broader context - wave walls of bamboo locally made - part of provincial integrated coastal management plan Vietnam: Partner with Kien Giang province & GIZ
- 52. Dealing with rainfall variability and saltwater intrusion Reef Islands, Temotu Province
- 53. Dealing with shoreline erosion Mangrove replanting at Buri, Ranongga, Western Province