Dr. Cynthia Rosenzweig, Senior Research Scientist, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Senior Research Scientist, Earth Institute at Columbia University
Co-Chair Mayor Bloomberg’s Climate Change Commission
Co-Director Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN); National Institute for Coastal & Harbor Infrastructure, John F. Kennedy Center, Boston, Nov. 12, 2013: "The Triple Threat of Rising Sea Levels, Extreme Storms and Aging Infrastructure: Coastal Community Responses and The Federal Role" See http://www.nichiusa.org or http://www.nichi.us

1. Key Climate Challenges for Coastal Zones
Lessons from New York City and Hurricane Sandy
Cynthia Rosenzweig
NASA GISS/ Columbia University
National Institute for Coastal and Harbor Infrastructure Symposium
Boston, Massachusetts
November 12, 2013
1

2. Outline
• Climate Change Challenges in Coastal Zones
• New York City Adaptation Process
• Responding to Hurricane Sandy
• Sandy as Tipping Point
2

3. Coastal Zones
Key Findings from Draft National Climate Assessment
• Coastal zones are increasingly vulnerable to
higher sea levels and storm surges, inland
flooding, and other climate-related changes.
• Climate change increases exposure of
important assets, such as ports, tourism and
fishing sites, in already-vulnerable coastal
locations, threatening to disrupt economic
activity beyond the coast and incurring
significant costs for protecting or moving
them.
• Socioeconomic disparities create uneven
exposures and sensitivities to coastal risks
and limit adaptation options for some coastal
communities, resulting in the displacement
of the most vulnerable from coastal areas.
From 2013 National Climate Assessment, Draft
Chapter 25, USGCRP, 2013v
Challenges of Multiple Jurisdictions
From 2013 National Climate Assessment, Draft
Chapter 25, USGCRP, 2013v
3

4. Coastal Zones
Key Climate Impacts in the Northeast
High water levels, strong winds, and heavy
precipitation from coastal storms already impact
coastal areas.
Warming ocean waters raise sea level through
thermal expansion which will result in more
frequent and extensive coastal flooding and
stronger coastal storms.
• Barrier islands are being significantly altered due to
erosion, overwash and new inlets created by strong
coastal storms
• Sea level rise will increase the risks to populations
in low-lying coastal areas and will lead to
permanent inundation of low-lying areas, more
frequent storm surge flooding and increased beach
erosion
• Loss of coastal wetlands and salt marshes will
reduce species diversity
ClimAID, 2011
4
ClimAID, 2011

5. New York City Adaptation Process
Mayor
Leadership
Implementation
City Agencies
- Regional Authorities
City-wide Sustainability
Office OLTPS
- Private Stakeholders
Coordination
University scholars and
private sector experts
E
Stakeholder
Task Force
CCATF
T
Expert Panel
NPCC
- Social, biological, and
physical scientists
P
Integration across
C
- Legal and insurance
experts
- Risk management
professionals
W
W
Sector-specific Working Groups
- Energy (E)
- Transportation (T)
- Policy (P) - Water & Waste (WW)
Climate Science
- Communications (C)
Source: NPCC, 2010
5

6. First New York City Panel on Climate Change
Mayor Bloomberg convened the First New York City Panel on Climate
Change (NPCC1) in 2008. The NPCC – leading climate and social
scientists and risk management experts – worked to identify future
climate risks facing New York City
•
In 2009, the Panel produced a set of climate
projections specific to New York City region
•
Full report published by New York Academy of
Sciences in 2010
•
New York City Codified NPCC in August 2012
legislation, requiring regular climate science
updates
6

7. Flexible Adaptation Pathways
Climate change adaptation as a risk management issue
Flexible Adaptation Pathways as the response
Source: NPCC, 2010
7

8. Steps – Assess and Implement
1.
Identify current and future climate hazards
2.
Conduct inventory of infrastructure and
assets and begin to identify vulnerabilities
3.
Characterize risk
4.
Develop initial list of strategies
5.
Identify opportunities for coordination
6.
Prioritize strategies
7.
Prepare and implement Resilience Plans
8.
Monitor and reassess
NPCC, 2010
8

9. Framing Adaptation
• Reduce the level of physical, social,
and economic impacts of climate
• Take advantage of new
opportunities
Types
• Management/operations
• Infrastructure – physical
components of each sector
• Policy
Administrative Groups
• Private vs. public
organizations
• Local/municipal, county,
state, national
ClimAID, 2011
Level of Efforts
•
Incremental action
•
Large-scale shifts
Timing
•
Short term <5 yrs; medium term
5-15 yrs; long term >15 years
•
Abrupt Changes - tipping
points/policy triggers
9

10. Pre-Hurricane Sandy Adaptation Actions
• Actions already underway in New
York City to mitigate the impacts
of climate risks
– Planting over 300 Greenstreets,
vegetation that absorbs stormwater
– Securing citywide high-resolution
LiDAR elevation data, which helps to
identify the most vulnerable area
– Incorporating sea level rise into the
City's Comprehensive Waterfront
Plan
– NYC Office of Emergency
Management launched enhanced
emergency response and
preparedness programs
• Post Sandy intensifying efforts
NPCC, 2013
10

11. Hurricane Sandy
• Storm timing coincided almost exactly with
astronomically high, high tide
• Tropical-storm-force winds extended 1,000 miles
from end to end, making it more than three times
the size of Hurricane Katrina
• Storm surge combined with high tide created a
“storm tide” of over 14 feet above Mean Lower Low
Water at the Battery
• Unusual storm track, Sandy turned sharply west
just as it was reaching another peak of intensity
SIRR, 2013
CCSR, 2013
Storm Forecast Well In Advance
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12. Hurricane Sandy
Links to Climate Change Science
Sea level rise at Battery, NYC 1900-2009, NPCC
• It is not possible to attribute any single
extreme event such as Hurricane Sandy to
climate change
• Sea level rise already occurring in the New York
City area (~1.1 feet since 1900), in part related
to climate change, increased the extent and
magnitude of coastal flooding during the storm
North Atlantic SSTs and Hurricane Power Dissipation Index 1950-2005, Emanuel
• Intensity of severe hurricanes appears to be on
rise and may increase in future***
• Melting sea-ice may be changing pattern of jet
stream, making westward-turning storm tracks
more likely***
***Areas of active research
Sources: CCSR, 2013
Median Minimum Sea Ice Extent 1979-2009
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13. Hurricane Sandy
Immediate Preparations
LIPA
New York City issued mandatory evacuation
of Zone A on October 28, 2012
Out-of-state utility crews brought in
before the storm
Evacuation – Not complete
43 people died in NYC 80%
from drowning
Utilities – Not prepared
4 million without power in the
tri-state region
MTA/DOT – Major flooding
7 subway lines under East River,
3 tunnels closed
MTA closed down
operations, moved rolling
stock, and boarded and
placed sandbags at
subway entrances to
protect against flooding
SIRR, 2013
MTA
13

14. Climate Change and
a Global City 2001
The Potential
Consequences of
Climate Variability and
Change
Metro East Coast (MEC) July
2001
Hurricane Sandy
Forecasting the Impacts
South Ferry Subway Station
Interdependent Critical
Infrastructure Systems
and
Vulnerable Communities
Beach erosion and boardwalk
damage in the Rockaways
Spencer Platt Getty Images
Extensive power outages
Hard-hit
areas
Sources: CCSR, 2013,
MTA, 2012
Many impacts forecast well in advance
14

15. Hurricane Sandy
Unforeseen Impacts
• Hospital Evacuations
– Flooding and power outages forced the
evacuation of 6,500 people from nursing
homes and hospitals
• Gas Shortages
– Severe breakdowns in the supply chain
serving New York caused by storm
damage to coastal infrastructure led to
fuel shortages that lasted weeks
• Fires
– Over 100 homes and businesses were
destroyed by fire, often electrical in
nature, sparked by the interaction of
electricity and seawater. Narrowly flooded
streets hampered emergency response.
SIRR, 2013
15

16. Second New York City Panel on Climate Change
After Hurricane Sandy, Mayor Bloomberg re-convened the NPCC in
January to provide updated climate risk information for the Special
Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency (SIRR)
•
The 2013 NPCC Climate Risk
Information Report (CRI) provides new
climate change projections and future
coastal flood risk maps for New York
City
•
Both “A Stronger, More Resilient New
York” and CRI reports released on June
11, 2013
16

17. Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast
• CCRUN conducts stakeholder-driven research that reduces climate-related
vulnerability and advances opportunities for adaptation in the urban
Northeast
• CCRUN scientists lead the technical team that developed the projections for
the NPCC2 report
17

18. Key Findings for Future Projected Changes
Recently released (June 2013) climate change projections…
•
Illustrate a broad-based acceleration of climate change
in coming decades
•
Show significant climate risks for New York City,
especially heat waves, extreme precipitation events, and
coastal flooding
•
Valid for New York City and the metropolitan region
•
By 2050s, projected changes include
–
–
–
–
Annual temperature increase up to 6.5 F
Mean precipitation change between +5 and +10 percent
Sea level rise up to 31 inches
1-in-100 year flood may occur approximately 5 times more often
with the high-estimate for sea level rise
– More likely than not increase in the number of the most intense
hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin.
– Unknown how the total number of tropical cyclones will change in
the North Atlantic Basin
NPCC, 2013
18

19. NYC SIRR Key Findings for Coastal Protection
•
Increase coastal edge elevations
– The City will increase the height of vulnerable coastal edges with bulkheads,
beach nourishment and other measures over time
•
Minimize upland wave zones
– The City will work to provide significant attenuation of waves—that is, to
knock down waves, or diminish their velocity—both off and onshore, before
they reach neighborhoods
•
Protect against storm surge
– The City will use flood protection structures, such as floodwalls, levees, and
local storm surge barriers built, where possible, to the 100-year flood
elevation with an additional allowance for future sea level rise
•
Improve coastal design
– The City will study how natural areas and open space can be used to protect
adjacent neighborhoods and maintain neighborhood quality of life, and will
work to manage its own waterfront assets more effectively
•
Governance
– Developing partnerships to improve permitting and study innovative coastal
protections.
SIRR, 2013
19

20. NYC SIRR Key Findings for Insurance
•
Strategy: Target affordability solutions to low-income policyholders
–
•
Strategy: Define resiliency standards for existing buildings
–
•
Measures that reduce a property’s risk of damage should be reflected
in a commensurate reduction in the cost of insurance
Strategy: Expand pricing options for policyholders
–
•
Sandy highlighted the limited information currently available on riskreduction techniques short of elevation, which is impractical,
financially infeasible or physically impossible for building types
common in New York City and other dense urban areas.
Strategy: Incorporate resiliency standards in insurance
underwriting
–
•
The combined impact of Biggert-Waters and the remapping of New
York City’s floodplain will result in significant increases in flood
insurance premiums, which many New Yorkers, especially the city’s
most vulnerable populations—including those with low, or on fixed,
incomes—will not be able to afford.
Flexible pricing options can encourage more people, especially those
not required to carry insurance, to purchase coverage that suits their
needs.
Strategy: Improve awareness and education about insurance
–
SIRR, 2013
Consumers must be aware of both their risks and the coverage their
insurance policies include or exclude.
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21. Hurricane Sandy as Tipping Point
• Leadership in responding to climate change
• Municipal, state, and federal alignment
• Climate science in place and in time
Need for federal coordination that recognizes
local and state initiatives
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22. References and Links
• Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (www.ccrun.org)
• NYSERDA ClimAID (www.nyserda.ny.gov/climaid)
• New York City Panel on Climate Change report available online at
(www.nyas.org)
• Urban Climate Change Research Network (www.uccrn.org)
• ClimateYou (www.climateyou.org)
– “Learn, Share, Act” about climate change
NPCC
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