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How the Dutch Keep
Their Feet Dry (and
not move to Germany)
Adaptation, Risk
Mitigation and National
Will

Dale T Morris
S...
Overview
•

The Netherlands: geography, adaptation, water wolves

•

Past Practices, Future Foundations

•

Multifunctiona...
The Netherlands, in Europe

3
1-2-2014
The Netherlands: a delta landscape, penetrated by
rivers, subject to sea and river flooding

4
The Netherlands, at risk
•
•
•

H A
R

•
•

400 miles of rivers (Rhine, Meuse)
draining NW Europe
60% of land at/below sea...
Area potentially flooded at water level 6.0 m below MSL

Deltacommissaris
Area potentially flooded at water level 5.0 m below MSL

Deltacommissaris
Area potentially flooded at water level 4.0 m below MSL

Deltacommissaris
Area potentially flooded at water level 3.0 m below MSL

Deltacommissaris
Area potentially flooded at water level 2.0 m below MSL

Deltacommissaris
Area potentially flooded at water level 1.0 m below MSL

Deltacommissaris
Area potentially flooded at water level 0.0 m below MSL

Deltacommissaris
Area potentially flooded at water level 0.5 m above MSL

Deltacommissaris
Area potentially flooded at water level 1.0 m above MSL

Deltacommissaris
15
1-2-2014
Focus of past mitigation: shorten the coastline
300  45 km

750  50 km

Deltacommissaris
16
Delta Works: Reduce coastal/delta surge impacts
•Shorten coastline / strong spine

•Navigation open, working delta
•40 yr ...
1958 flood risk/safety standards established
“Never Again” mentality
Risk = Consequences x Probability = areas
with most r...
We‟re safe!

1-2-2014

Deltacommissaris
19
Subsidence
Mining Gas +
salt

Geological

Peat
oxidation
Intricate water supply / drainage: summer and winter
Summer
Winter

Deltacommissaris
The Delta Under Pressure: future challenges, measured
More/intense
rainfall

More /extreme
storms?

Spatial
developments

...
Present Flood Risk Management policy (2009)
(floor resistance to flood accomodation)
Multi-layered approach:
3. Disaster m...
3

Depoldering, the plan
Bottleneck Gorinchem

river Merwede

To the sea

river Meuse
Depoldering Noordwaard (11,000 square acres)
•

Goals:

•

Impacts:

•

Lower water level +/- 30 cm @
Gorinchem
Improve sp...
28
1-2-2014
3

waterdynamic
3

waterdynamic
3

waterdynamic
3

waterdynamic
3

waterdynamic
3

waterdynamic
Room for the river | Ijssel River | Zutphen - Cortenoever
Extremesituation
Situationhigh water situation
Current with regu...
Waal River / Nijmegen Project
• River bottleneck, channel restriction from 1500m width to
450 m width
Options:
• Ag / unde...
Bottleneck
2

1
Dike set-back strategy: safety, increased storage /
flow capacity, and new land opportunities

40
1-2-2014
Before / After (impression)

42
1-2-2014
Experience the river
Stages

2000
fright

2002

2004

fight

2006

2008

2010

2012

acquiescence building trust

2014
pride

Nijmegen takes le...
Rotterdam: 4 threats (or an opportunity?)

45
1-2-2014
URBAN FLOODPLAIN
UNDERGROUND WATER STORAGE
Scheveningen Blvd: improve mandated protection
and urban amenity (2006 safety assessment)

Deltacommissaris
50
Bouldevard Scheveningen De Solà - Morales
Deltacommissaris
Katwijk
Rising seas
• Increasing sea level
• Increasing population and economic value in coastal zones
world wide

Photo: Stephen ...
Building with Nature
Building with Nature?
let nature do part
of the work ...

while creating new
new eco-opportunities
young dune formation
yo...
Building with Nature

Deltacommissaris
Dutch Context, coastal erosion
Shortage of natural sediment

Consequence: Structural erosion, 1996 coastline fixed
Solutio...
Development of nourishment strategy
Increase in volume

Change in design

Annual added sand volumes:
• Since 1990: 6 mln m...
Tendency towards larger-scale nourishments
Extra functions nourishments (nature, surfing)?

Deltacommissaris
The Sand Engine!
Objectives:
1. Extra Safety
2. Nature area / „Quality of living‟
3. Innovation

„Hook‟ alternative

70 M ...
The Sand Engine
• enhanced safety against flooding
• first: wave attenuator;
later: wider dune buffer

• cheaper per m3 co...
Predictions morphological behavior
Deltares (Delft3D) numerical model forecast
Initial design

Deltacommissaris
Predictions morphological behavior
Deltares (Delft3D) numerical model forecast
T=5 year

Deltacommissaris
Predictions morphological behavior
Deltares (Delft3D) numerical model forecast
T=10 year

Deltacommissaris
Predictions morphological behavior
Deltares (Delft3D) numerical model forecast
T=20 year

Deltacommissaris
Constructed peninsula

Deltacommissaris
Aerial photo Oct. 2011, after 3 mnths

Deltacommissaris
Aerial photo Jan. 2012, after 6 mnths

Deltacommissaris
Aerial photo July. 2012, after 1 yr

Deltacommissaris
Aerial photo July. 2013, after 2 yrs

Deltacommissaris
Spit and channel formation near lagoon

Deltacommissaris
2nd Delta Commission: 2007/08 (Katrina inspired)
Working together with water: a living land
builds for its future

76
1-2-...
Delta Commission, 2008:
The threat is not acute,

but measures to improve
flood risk management and
fresh water supply
sho...
The Delta Program: safe and productive over 100
years (how to not move to Germany)
Independent Delta Commissioner (and sma...
Tipping Points

79
1-2-2014
Dutch – American Collaborations
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Post-Katrina Louisiana
Mississippi River Floods (St Louis)
Los Angeles ...
New Orleans: Urban Water Plan for a Living Water
System

Deltacommissaris
1-2-2014
PILOT PROJECT: Hollygrove
Greater New Orleans Water Management
PILOT PROJECT: Mirabeau
Greater New Orleans Water Management
ORLEANS OPPORTUNITIES
Greater New Orleans Water Management
Fluvial Zone Type
01:
Agricultural Land
Use & Pooled
River

The Challenges
Agriculture:
Ecological:
Navigation:
Levees:
De...
Group Analysis
Mayor Villaraigosa and The Dutch

87
2/1/2014
Super-Storm Sandy
They said: “We need Dutch barriers!”
We said: “Wait a minute…”
Rebuild by Design

88
2/1/2014
Nichi.11-12-13.netherlands.dale morris
Nichi.11-12-13.netherlands.dale morris
Nichi.11-12-13.netherlands.dale morris
Nichi.11-12-13.netherlands.dale morris
Nichi.11-12-13.netherlands.dale morris
Nichi.11-12-13.netherlands.dale morris
Nichi.11-12-13.netherlands.dale morris
Nichi.11-12-13.netherlands.dale morris
Nichi.11-12-13.netherlands.dale morris
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Dale Morris, Senior Economist, Royal Dutch Embassy, The Dutch National Plan: The Delta Commission; National Institute for Coastal & Harbor Infrastructure, John F. Kennedy Center, Boston, Nov. 12, 2013: "The Triple Threat of Rising Sea Levels, Extreme Storms and Aging Infrastructure: Coastal Community Responses and The Federal Role." See http://www.nichiusa.org or http://www.nichi.us

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Nichi.11-12-13.netherlands.dale morris

  1. 1. How the Dutch Keep Their Feet Dry (and not move to Germany) Adaptation, Risk Mitigation and National Will Dale T Morris Senior Economist Royal Netherlands Embassy 1 1-2-2014
  2. 2. Overview • The Netherlands: geography, adaptation, water wolves • Past Practices, Future Foundations • Multifunctional Infrastructure • The Future (How to Avoid Moving to Germany) • Collaborations in the US (time permitting) 1-2-2014
  3. 3. The Netherlands, in Europe 3 1-2-2014
  4. 4. The Netherlands: a delta landscape, penetrated by rivers, subject to sea and river flooding 4
  5. 5. The Netherlands, at risk • • • H A R • • 400 miles of rivers (Rhine, Meuse) draining NW Europe 60% of land at/below sea level 17 million people, 9 million of which live below flood level GDP 600 bln euro (70% of which produced at/below sea-level) 2100 miles of flood defences, hundreds of locks, sluices, pumping stations • • 100 km storm surge, wet weather, heavy river discharge, subsiding, drought changing climate. SLR: 1 – 2.5 ft ~2100 • water mgmt is a matter of national survival and an opportunity Deltacommissaris 5
  6. 6. Area potentially flooded at water level 6.0 m below MSL Deltacommissaris
  7. 7. Area potentially flooded at water level 5.0 m below MSL Deltacommissaris
  8. 8. Area potentially flooded at water level 4.0 m below MSL Deltacommissaris
  9. 9. Area potentially flooded at water level 3.0 m below MSL Deltacommissaris
  10. 10. Area potentially flooded at water level 2.0 m below MSL Deltacommissaris
  11. 11. Area potentially flooded at water level 1.0 m below MSL Deltacommissaris
  12. 12. Area potentially flooded at water level 0.0 m below MSL Deltacommissaris
  13. 13. Area potentially flooded at water level 0.5 m above MSL Deltacommissaris
  14. 14. Area potentially flooded at water level 1.0 m above MSL Deltacommissaris
  15. 15. 15 1-2-2014
  16. 16. Focus of past mitigation: shorten the coastline 300  45 km 750  50 km Deltacommissaris 16
  17. 17. Delta Works: Reduce coastal/delta surge impacts •Shorten coastline / strong spine •Navigation open, working delta •40 yr buildout • Infra takes time • Small projects first • Redesigned to mitigate substantial enviro/eco impacts in estuary Deltacommissaris
  18. 18. 1958 flood risk/safety standards established “Never Again” mentality Risk = Consequences x Probability = areas with most risk have highest levels of protection Cost-Benefit Analysis for all major infra projects (models recently updated given 40 rys of demographic and econ changes) Caveat for US: Weather and landscape differences • Slow-moving winter storms vs fastmoving tropical storms • Max storm windspeeds different • Rainfall manageable • Small- to- mid-sized rivers 1/10,000 = 1/500? 18
  19. 19. We‟re safe! 1-2-2014 Deltacommissaris 19
  20. 20. Subsidence Mining Gas + salt Geological Peat oxidation
  21. 21. Intricate water supply / drainage: summer and winter Summer Winter Deltacommissaris
  22. 22. The Delta Under Pressure: future challenges, measured More/intense rainfall More /extreme storms? Spatial developments Sealevel rise (20 cm--> 60-85 cm/100y) 22 Increased erosion Salt intrusion Subsidence 10 cm/100yr Increased river discharge + 10% Decreased river discharge - 60%
  23. 23. Present Flood Risk Management policy (2009) (floor resistance to flood accomodation) Multi-layered approach: 3. Disaster management (Katrina effect) 2. Smart land-use planning Room for the River Living with Water: spatial planning, urban design, multiple layers of defense and green infra 1. Robust Protection Deltacommissaris
  24. 24. 3 Depoldering, the plan Bottleneck Gorinchem river Merwede To the sea river Meuse
  25. 25. Depoldering Noordwaard (11,000 square acres) • Goals: • Impacts: • Lower water level +/- 30 cm @ Gorinchem Improve spatial quality of area Restore coherence of environment Enable current residents to maintain residence, if desired Maintenance of farming occupation (either within polder or elsewhere) • Overflow area will flood 1-5 x year Nearby areas 1 x in 25 years Fort Steurgart remains protected Most residences will now be “outside the dikes”, on raised mounds Flood levels no higher than 1 meter in residences New park / recreation / tourism opportunities Remains accessible to all users Surprise! Reduce flood risk at Dordrecht (90 cm) • • • • • • • • •
  26. 26. 28 1-2-2014
  27. 27. 3 waterdynamic
  28. 28. 3 waterdynamic
  29. 29. 3 waterdynamic
  30. 30. 3 waterdynamic
  31. 31. 3 waterdynamic
  32. 32. 3 waterdynamic
  33. 33. Room for the river | Ijssel River | Zutphen - Cortenoever Extremesituation Situationhigh water situation Current with regular water flooding Proposed situation
  34. 34. Waal River / Nijmegen Project • River bottleneck, channel restriction from 1500m width to 450 m width Options: • Ag / undeveloped land available to north • Northern river bank land targeted for development • Key road / rail / harbor infrastructure 37 1-2-2014
  35. 35. Bottleneck
  36. 36. 2 1
  37. 37. Dike set-back strategy: safety, increased storage / flow capacity, and new land opportunities 40 1-2-2014
  38. 38. Before / After (impression) 42 1-2-2014
  39. 39. Experience the river
  40. 40. Stages 2000 fright 2002 2004 fight 2006 2008 2010 2012 acquiescence building trust 2014 pride Nijmegen takes lead the bad news first scenario’s salomons judgement public involvement definite plan start realization
  41. 41. Rotterdam: 4 threats (or an opportunity?) 45 1-2-2014
  42. 42. URBAN FLOODPLAIN
  43. 43. UNDERGROUND WATER STORAGE
  44. 44. Scheveningen Blvd: improve mandated protection and urban amenity (2006 safety assessment) Deltacommissaris 50
  45. 45. Bouldevard Scheveningen De Solà - Morales
  46. 46. Deltacommissaris
  47. 47. Katwijk
  48. 48. Rising seas • Increasing sea level • Increasing population and economic value in coastal zones world wide Photo: Stephen Wilkes IPCC, 2007 National Geographic , Sept 2013 Deltacommissaris
  49. 49. Building with Nature
  50. 50. Building with Nature? let nature do part of the work ... while creating new new eco-opportunities young dune formation young dune formation Deltacommissaris
  51. 51. Building with Nature Deltacommissaris
  52. 52. Dutch Context, coastal erosion Shortage of natural sediment Consequence: Structural erosion, 1996 coastline fixed Solution: Nourishments City of Egmond Deltacommissaris
  53. 53. Development of nourishment strategy Increase in volume Change in design Annual added sand volumes: • Since 1990: 6 mln m3/yr • Since 2001: 12 mln m3/yr Prospect future : 40-85 mln m3/yr !! Deltacommissaris
  54. 54. Tendency towards larger-scale nourishments Extra functions nourishments (nature, surfing)? Deltacommissaris
  55. 55. The Sand Engine! Objectives: 1. Extra Safety 2. Nature area / „Quality of living‟ 3. Innovation „Hook‟ alternative 70 M Euro. 21 M m3 of sand Deltacommissaris
  56. 56. The Sand Engine • enhanced safety against flooding • first: wave attenuator; later: wider dune buffer • cheaper per m3 compared to traditional nourishments • longer period between nourishments • more time for beach / nearshore ecosystem to recover • recreation potential • swimming, surfing, beach recreation • wider dune area • increased freshwater reserve Deltacommissaris
  57. 57. Predictions morphological behavior Deltares (Delft3D) numerical model forecast Initial design Deltacommissaris
  58. 58. Predictions morphological behavior Deltares (Delft3D) numerical model forecast T=5 year Deltacommissaris
  59. 59. Predictions morphological behavior Deltares (Delft3D) numerical model forecast T=10 year Deltacommissaris
  60. 60. Predictions morphological behavior Deltares (Delft3D) numerical model forecast T=20 year Deltacommissaris
  61. 61. Constructed peninsula Deltacommissaris
  62. 62. Aerial photo Oct. 2011, after 3 mnths Deltacommissaris
  63. 63. Aerial photo Jan. 2012, after 6 mnths Deltacommissaris
  64. 64. Aerial photo July. 2012, after 1 yr Deltacommissaris
  65. 65. Aerial photo July. 2013, after 2 yrs Deltacommissaris
  66. 66. Spit and channel formation near lagoon Deltacommissaris
  67. 67. 2nd Delta Commission: 2007/08 (Katrina inspired) Working together with water: a living land builds for its future 76 1-2-2014
  68. 68. Delta Commission, 2008: The threat is not acute, but measures to improve flood risk management and fresh water supply should be prepared urgently! Deltacommissaris
  69. 69. The Delta Program: safe and productive over 100 years (how to not move to Germany) Independent Delta Commissioner (and small staff) Cost-benefit analysis for every project 2011 – 2014: Research program to identify and quantify challenges Tipping points approach 2014: Delta Decisions No-regret measures 2015 – 2020: Develop projects Adaptive management 2020 -2050: 1 billion euro/yr for project implementation 78 Delta Programme Commissioner 2/1/2014
  70. 70. Tipping Points 79 1-2-2014
  71. 71. Dutch – American Collaborations • • • • • • • • • Post-Katrina Louisiana Mississippi River Floods (St Louis) Los Angeles River SLR in San Francisco Bay (early-stage) Integrated Delta Management (CA Bay Delta) Galveston (Ike Dike) SLR Norfolk SLR Miami Sandy 80 1-2-2014
  72. 72. New Orleans: Urban Water Plan for a Living Water System Deltacommissaris 1-2-2014
  73. 73. PILOT PROJECT: Hollygrove Greater New Orleans Water Management
  74. 74. PILOT PROJECT: Mirabeau Greater New Orleans Water Management
  75. 75. ORLEANS OPPORTUNITIES Greater New Orleans Water Management
  76. 76. Fluvial Zone Type 01: Agricultural Land Use & Pooled River The Challenges Agriculture: Ecological: Navigation: Levees: Development:
  77. 77. Group Analysis
  78. 78. Mayor Villaraigosa and The Dutch 87 2/1/2014
  79. 79. Super-Storm Sandy They said: “We need Dutch barriers!” We said: “Wait a minute…” Rebuild by Design 88 2/1/2014

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