Lessons Learned from the Everglades Sea Level Rise Assessments and Methods<br />St. Johns River Summit <br />Challenges: S...
SLR and Climate Change in CERP<br />Where is the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Program (CERP) in the process of ass...
Scenarios of Sea Level Rise for Mayport, FL<br />
Map of Compliant Stations<br />9 Tide Stations in Florida comply with the EC’s requirements.<br /> 		= Stations referenced...
SLR Measured at Mayport<br />Tide Station<br />2.40 mm/yr<br />
Scenarios of Sea Level Rise for Mayport, FL<br />
Scenarios of Sea Level Rise for Fernandina Beach, FL<br />
SLR Scenarios for Selected Sites in Florida<br />
SLR Projections & Planning Standards for South Florida<br />6 ft<br />?<br />>3-5’ for ~2100 (Miami-Dade., 2009)<br />5 ft...
New Corps Guidance on Incorporating Sea-Level Change Considerations<br />EC 1165-2-211 became effective July 1, 2009<br />...
Evolution of USACE/CERP Guidance on SLR<br />
Florida Through Time – Climate Change Happens!<br />100 miles<br />  120,000 years ago               18,000 years ago     ...
Climate Change Concerns for South Florida Ecosystem Restoration<br />Sea Level Rise<br />Salinity changes in coastal bays<...
Credit:  Peter W. Harlem, Florida International University, Southeast Environmental Research Center<br />
Sea Level Rise in South Florida<br />A little less than 1 foot during the past century measured at Key West<br />A 2 foot ...
Sea Level Rise in South Florida<br />A little less than 1 foot during the past century measured at Key West<br />A 4-5 foo...
Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact <br />2009 Agreement between Broward, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, and Monroe...
Will coordinate mitigation and adaptation activities
Establishes a framework in which the four counties can share resources and collaborate on climate change adaptation strate...
Second annual meeting planned on October 29, 2010</li></li></ul><li>Flood Damage Concerns<br />Sea level rise will reduce ...
Flood Damage Concerns<br />Sea level rise will reduce effectiveness of gravity drainage canals <br />The population of Sou...
Conceptual diagram of hydrologic systemof south Florida (Langevin, USGS, 2000)<br />Water Supply Concerns<br /><ul><li>Sha...
Will local canal stages be allowed to rise in step with sea level rise?
Continued sea level rise w/o rising canal stages will allow saltwater intrusion into water wells and create a need for alt...
Saltwater intrusion into water supply wells or climate change impacts on rainfall patterns and evaporation will increase w...
Effects on Natural Areas<br />Saltwater inundation leads to<br />peat collapse and decline of<br />freshwater wetlands hab...
shoreline.noaa.gov/apps/bounddeterm.html<br />
Tidal Datums for Key West<br />Elevations in NAVD 88 Relative to NTDE 1983-2001<br />MHHW= MSL + 0.92 ft<br />MHHW<br />MH...
Scenarios for Sea-Level Rise<br />U.N. Climate Change Science Compendium 2009<br />0.8 to 2.0 meters (2.62 to 6.56 feet) b...
Biscayne Bay Coastal Wetlands<br />Northern Portion<br />Mean High High Water<br />
Biscayne Bay Coastal Wetlands<br />Southern Portion<br />Mean High High Water<br />
Mean High High Water Plus 0.5 ft<br />
Mean High High Water Plus 1.0 ft<br />
Mean High High Water Plus 1.5 ft<br />
Mean High High Water Plus 2.0 ft<br />
Model Development<br />For South Florida Climate Change Adaptation Studies<br />Regional models must be modified or develo...
Next Steps - CERP<br />Coordinate Draft CGM16 with CERP Partners and COE national team preparing SLC ETL<br />Continue Ini...
Next Steps - USACE<br />Per WRDA 2007, update USACE Principles and Guidelines for Water Resources Projects.   National Res...
External Experts<br />USGS<br />NOAA<br />Navy<br />FHWA<br />HR Wallingford, UK<br />University of Southampton, UK<br />P...
Everglades Restoration Climate Change ConcernsKey Take Away Points<br />Uncertainties and RISKS exist regarding climate ch...
Kissimmee River Restoration<br />After<br />Before<br />
For additional information, contact:<br />Glenn Landers <br />Or Kris Esterson<br />U.S. Army Corps of Engineers<br />Jack...
C-111 Spreader Canal Project<br />
C-111 Spreader Canal Project<br />MSL = Mean Sea Level<br />
C-111 Spreader Canal Project<br />MSL + 1 ft SLR<br />
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Lessons Learned From The Everglades Sjr Summit 2010 09 15 Esterson+Landers

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Presentation given at the St Johns River Summit. Lessons learned about sea level rise from the Everglades restoration experience.

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Lessons Learned From The Everglades Sjr Summit 2010 09 15 Esterson+Landers

  1. 1. Lessons Learned from the Everglades Sea Level Rise Assessments and Methods<br />St. Johns River Summit <br />Challenges: Sea Level Rise<br />September 15, 2010<br />Jacksonville, Florida<br />Presented by: <br />Kris Esterson (Everglades Partners Joint Venture) &<br />Glenn LandersSenior Project ManagerClimate Change StudiesEverglades Division<br />USACE, Jacksonville District<br />
  2. 2. SLR and Climate Change in CERP<br />Where is the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Program (CERP) in the process of assessing SLR impacts on the program?<br />Guidance on sea level change was issued by USACE in July, 2009.<br />The new guidance required increased analysis of SLR effects on CERP projects and program.<br />USACE, and CERP partner agencies, are currently developing several documents on climate change impacts to CERP. <br />Future investigations will focus on tool development and development of adaptation strategies.<br />
  3. 3. Scenarios of Sea Level Rise for Mayport, FL<br />
  4. 4. Map of Compliant Stations<br />9 Tide Stations in Florida comply with the EC’s requirements.<br /> = Stations referenced in CERP planning<br /> = Stations relevant for St Johns River (Mayport and Fernandina Beach)<br />
  5. 5. SLR Measured at Mayport<br />Tide Station<br />2.40 mm/yr<br />
  6. 6. Scenarios of Sea Level Rise for Mayport, FL<br />
  7. 7. Scenarios of Sea Level Rise for Fernandina Beach, FL<br />
  8. 8. SLR Scenarios for Selected Sites in Florida<br />
  9. 9. SLR Projections & Planning Standards for South Florida<br />6 ft<br />?<br />>3-5’ for ~2100 (Miami-Dade., 2009)<br />5 ft<br />SFRPC 10% Worst Case<br />EC 1165-2-211 High<br />4 ft<br />?<br />NRC 2nd Biennial Review (2008) “not much more than 3 feet”<br />3 ft<br />?<br />>1.5’ for ~2059 (Miami-Dade., 2009)<br />SFRPC 50% Moderate Case<br />2 ft<br />EC 1165-2-211 Intermediate<br />1.7’ by 2100 (CGM 16, 2004)<br />1.09’ (34cm) for 2100 (Yellow Book, 1999)<br />SFRPC 90% Least Case<br />1 ft<br />2.1” to 1’ for 2030 (Broward Co., 2009)<br />0.8’ by 2050 (CGM 16, 2004)<br />EC 1165-2-211 Historic<br />0.5’ SFWMD Sensitivity Test (Trimble, 1998)<br />0.48’ (15cm) for 2050 (Yellow Book, 1999)<br />0 ft<br />2050<br />2100<br />2030<br />2000<br />
  10. 10. New Corps Guidance on Incorporating Sea-Level Change Considerations<br />EC 1165-2-211 became effective July 1, 2009<br />Applies to every Corps coastal activity as far inland as extent of tidal influence <br />Does not apply to regulatory activities<br />EC can be accessed at: http://140.194.76.129/publications/eng-circulars/ec1165-2-211/<br />
  11. 11. Evolution of USACE/CERP Guidance on SLR<br />
  12. 12. Florida Through Time – Climate Change Happens!<br />100 miles<br /> 120,000 years ago 18,000 years ago Today<br /> + 6 meters (20’)* - 120 meters (420’)<br />*~ ½ from Greenland<br />*~ ½ from Antarctica <br />Credit: Dr. Harold R. Wanless; University of Miami, Department of Geological Sciences; <br />co-chair of Miami-Dade Climate Change Task Force<br />
  13. 13. Climate Change Concerns for South Florida Ecosystem Restoration<br />Sea Level Rise<br />Salinity changes in coastal bays<br />Shoreline retreat with natural habitat changes/losses<br />Increasing flooding in coastal areas<br />Saltwater intrusion in water supply wells<br />Uncertainties and risks in rate and depth of sea level rise<br />Warmer Temperatures<br />Evaporation losses up; water supply down<br />Stresses on plant, animal, and marine ecosystems<br />Changes in growing season and migratory patterns<br />Changes in water quality<br />Hydrologic Pattern Changes<br />Potential for less frequent and more intense rain events<br />Potential increased tropical storm intensity or frequency<br />
  14. 14.
  15. 15. Credit: Peter W. Harlem, Florida International University, Southeast Environmental Research Center<br />
  16. 16. Sea Level Rise in South Florida<br />A little less than 1 foot during the past century measured at Key West<br />A 2 foot rise would have significant effects<br />
  17. 17. Sea Level Rise in South Florida<br />A little less than 1 foot during the past century measured at Key West<br />A 4-5 foot rise would have dramatic impacts<br />MHHW +120 cm (4 ft) rise<br />MHHW +150 cm (5 ft) rise<br />
  18. 18. Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact <br />2009 Agreement between Broward, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, and Monroe counties <br /><ul><li>Federal, state, and local stakeholders were present
  19. 19. Will coordinate mitigation and adaptation activities
  20. 20. Establishes a framework in which the four counties can share resources and collaborate on climate change adaptation strategies
  21. 21. Second annual meeting planned on October 29, 2010</li></li></ul><li>Flood Damage Concerns<br />Sea level rise will reduce effectiveness of gravity drainage canals<br />The population of South Florida is 6.5 million and growing<br />
  22. 22. Flood Damage Concerns<br />Sea level rise will reduce effectiveness of gravity drainage canals <br />The population of South Florida is <br />6.5 million and growing<br />
  23. 23. Conceptual diagram of hydrologic systemof south Florida (Langevin, USGS, 2000)<br />Water Supply Concerns<br /><ul><li>Shallow wells are the primary source of drinking water for south Florida communities
  24. 24. Will local canal stages be allowed to rise in step with sea level rise?
  25. 25. Continued sea level rise w/o rising canal stages will allow saltwater intrusion into water wells and create a need for alternative freshwater sources</li></li></ul><li>Water Supply Concerns<br />Kissimmee River Basin and Lake Okeechobee<br />Lake Okeechobee Drought<br /><ul><li> Sea level rise may increase demand for water to maintain higher canal stages near the coast
  26. 26. Saltwater intrusion into water supply wells or climate change impacts on rainfall patterns and evaporation will increase water storage needs</li></li></ul><li>Everglades National Park<br />Sixty percent of Everglades National Park is less than 3 feet above MSL<br />
  27. 27. Effects on Natural Areas<br />Saltwater inundation leads to<br />peat collapse and decline of<br />freshwater wetlands habitat<br />Photo Credit: Dr. Harold R. Wanless; <br />University of Miami, Department of Geological Sciences; co-chair of <br />Miami-Dade Climate Change Task Force<br />Remnant living sawgrass<br />Peat Collapse<br />Dead sawgrass, substrate decay<br />Everglades restoration will increase freshwater flows to natural areas and may delay some future habitat changes<br />
  28. 28. shoreline.noaa.gov/apps/bounddeterm.html<br />
  29. 29. Tidal Datums for Key West<br />Elevations in NAVD 88 Relative to NTDE 1983-2001<br />MHHW= MSL + 0.92 ft<br />MHHW<br />MHW<br />MHW= MSL + 0.63 ft<br />MSL<br />Mean Range of Tide (MN)<br />Great Diurnal Range (GT)<br />MLW<br />MLLW<br />Great Diurnal Range (GT)- The difference in height between mean high high water and mean lower low water.<br />Mean Range of Tide (MN)- The difference in height between mean high water and mean low water.<br />
  30. 30. Scenarios for Sea-Level Rise<br />U.N. Climate Change Science Compendium 2009<br />0.8 to 2.0 meters (2.62 to 6.56 feet) by 2100<br />Use GIS to develop flooded area maps in +1ft increments to +6ft of SLC.<br />High – Modified NRC - III<br />Intermediate – Modified NRC - I<br />2.00<br />Low – Historic<br />2060<br />2110<br />2010<br />
  31. 31. Biscayne Bay Coastal Wetlands<br />Northern Portion<br />Mean High High Water<br />
  32. 32. Biscayne Bay Coastal Wetlands<br />Southern Portion<br />Mean High High Water<br />
  33. 33. Mean High High Water Plus 0.5 ft<br />
  34. 34. Mean High High Water Plus 1.0 ft<br />
  35. 35. Mean High High Water Plus 1.5 ft<br />
  36. 36. Mean High High Water Plus 2.0 ft<br />
  37. 37. Model Development<br />For South Florida Climate Change Adaptation Studies<br />Regional models must be modified or developed to evaluate potential climate change related variations in rainfall, evapotranspiration and tropical storms.<br />Local models with one foot topographic contours must be developed or enhanced to evaluate potential sea level rise and salt water intrusion impacts in natural and developed coastal areas.<br />Conversion to NAVD88 is needed.<br />
  38. 38. Next Steps - CERP<br />Coordinate Draft CGM16 with CERP Partners and COE national team preparing SLC ETL<br />Continue Initial SLR Impacts Assessments for CERP coastal projects<br />Summarize Initial SLR Impacts Assessments in CERP Tech Rpt 1<br />Continue Model Development for More Detailed Future Studies<br />
  39. 39. Next Steps - USACE<br />Per WRDA 2007, update USACE Principles and Guidelines for Water Resources Projects. National Research Council (NRC) review due Nov 2010.<br />A national interagency team is preparing a new Engineering Technical Letter (ETL) on Sea Level Change due in 2011.<br />NRC to review and possibly update their 1987 SLR guidance by Dec 2011.<br />CEQ Climate Adaption Task Force<br />
  40. 40. External Experts<br />USGS<br />NOAA<br />Navy<br />FHWA<br />HR Wallingford, UK<br />University of Southampton, UK<br />Procedures to Evaluate Sea Level Change Impacts, Responses, and Adaptation Engineering Technical Letter Team<br />Mike Mohr, LRB<br />Mmm<br />John Winkelman, NAE<br />Jeff Gebert, NAP<br />Larry Cocchieri, NAD <br />and PCX<br />Heidi Moritz, NWP<br />Team Lead for<br />Engineering<br />John Furry, HQ<br />Stu Townsley, SPD<br />Lauren DeFrank, IWR<br />Mike Wutkowski, SAW<br />Matt Schrader, SAJ<br />Glenn Landers, SAJ<br />Mmmmmmmmmmmm<br />Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm<br />Mmmm<br />Mmmm<br />mmmm<br />Susan Rees, SAM<br />Dennis Mekkers, SAM<br />Justo Pena, SWG<br />Julie Rosati, ERDC<br />Andy Garcia, ERDC<br />Tom Smith, POH<br />Crane Johnson, POA<br />Henri Langlois, IWR<br />Team Lead for<br />Planning<br />
  41. 41. Everglades Restoration Climate Change ConcernsKey Take Away Points<br />Uncertainties and RISKS exist regarding climate change, particularly future rate and depth of sea level rise<br />National Academy of Sciences 2008 report on restoration progress stated that climate change should be a reason to accelerate Everglades restoration, not a reason for delays<br />Everglades Restoration will help delay climate change impacts in natural and developed areas<br />More work needed to assess impact of sea level rise and climate change on the restoration effort<br />CERP Project Implementation Reports to address Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for enhanced long term sustainability<br />
  42. 42. Kissimmee River Restoration<br />After<br />Before<br />
  43. 43. For additional information, contact:<br />Glenn Landers <br />Or Kris Esterson<br />U.S. Army Corps of Engineers<br />Jacksonville District<br />Kristopher.A.Esterson@usace.army.mil<br />Glenn.B.Landers@usace.army.mil<br />
  44. 44. C-111 Spreader Canal Project<br />
  45. 45. C-111 Spreader Canal Project<br />MSL = Mean Sea Level<br />
  46. 46. C-111 Spreader Canal Project<br />MSL + 1 ft SLR<br />
  47. 47. C-111 Spreader Canal Project<br />MSL + 2 ft SLR<br />
  48. 48. C-111 Spreader Canal Project<br />MSL + 3 ft SLR<br />
  49. 49. C-111 Spreader Canal ProjectSLR Effects on Restoration Benefits<br />

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